Last cold morning for awhile—plenty of humidity and clouds ahead

It’s a rather chilly morning across the region, with temperatures falling from the mid-30s far north of Houston to the upper 40s right along the coast. However, these will be the last chilly temperatures that Houston experiences for awhile, and today will also probably be our last mostly sunny day until next week.

Houston won’t see temperatures in the 30s and 40s again, like this morning, for at least a week. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday

Some light sea fog will burn off fairly soon after sunrise, and temperatures will rise fairly quickly through the morning. High temperatures should reach the mid- to upper-70s across Houston with mostly sunny skies. Light winds will become more pronounced out of the south tonight, and temperatures will only drop into the upper 50s for most. These winds may help to work against the development of fog on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

Increasing moisture levels will lead to a day of at least partly, if not mostly cloudy skies. Light, very scattered showers will be possible, but for the most part I think we’ll just see gray skies. High temperatures will likely reach the mid-70s. Overnight, a weak cold front will approach Texas, but most of the high-resolution modeling suggests it will stall out along Interstate 10, or just north of there. As a result, fog may be a problem for coastal areas for the rest of the week.

Thursday and Friday

Conditions toward the end of the week will depend upon which side of the front you find yourself. Highs along the coast will likely be in the 70s, and in the 60s for areas further inland. There will be decent rain chances on both days, but accumulations overall should be slight, measured in tenths of an inch.

This dewpoint forecast for Thursday morning shows the NAM model forecast for the extent of the weak cold front. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

As the front washes out, expect a warmer weekend for pretty much all of Houston—highs in the 70s, lows in the 60s, mostly cloudy skies and plenty of humidity. Perhaps a third of the area will see rain, again most likely in the form of light showers.

Next week

Our next chance of a front that makes it all the way to the coast comes about a week from today, and we should return to more normal conditions for this time of year by then.

Another arctic front?

There appear to be rumors spreading of another Arctic Outbreak moving into the greater Houston area during the first week of March. I’ve been asked about this multiple times on Twitter and in emails, so it must be circulating somewhere. I haven’t bothered to look. This rumor is not grounded in fact, however. While Houston may see some low temperatures in the 40s during the first week of March, I’d bet against anything lower. And I can definitively say we’re not going to see a repeat of what we saw earlier this month, with record lows and widespread snow and ice.

Thankfully, Houston’s weather turns pretty boring for awhile

It was nice to have a weekend where we didn’t have to think (or, frankly, write) much about the weather, and rather to just enjoy it. Sunshine, warmth, and mild weather all were tremendously welcome after Houston’s winter week from hell. Fortunately, there is more generally mild weather ahead and we really have no major concerns to highlight for you at this time.

Monday

A cold front pushed through Houston during the overnight hours, bringing down dewpoints and temperatures in its wake. Since this is not a particularly strong front, we still expect high temperatures today to rise to around 70 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be moderate, out of the north at about 5 to 10 mph.

Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning. (Weather Bell)

Tonight will be the coldest of the week, and perhaps for quite awhile across the region as we experience a warming trend going forward. Lows will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, and perhaps a degree or two colder in outlying areas. No one should see a freeze.

Tuesday

This should be another absolutely splendid day, with highs of around 70, or a bit warmer, and a lot more sunshine. Later in the day winds will turn more southerly, and that will begin the process of bringing more humid air into the region. Lows Tuesday night will be a 10 degrees warmer than Monday night.

Wednesday

By Wednesday morning I suspect we’ll start to see widespread sea fog developing as warmer air moves over colder bays and waterways. This could be a problem for several mornings through the weekend. Highs on Wednesday should reach the middle-70s despite increasing cloud cover, and lows in Houston may not drop below 60 degrees overnight.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week is somewhat uncertain given that the next cold front it scheduled to push toward Houston on Thursday, but stall somewhere. It might get all the way to Interstate 10, but I think the front will stall north of there. Accordingly, rain chances will be better along and north of I-10 on Thursday and Friday. Even then, accumulations should be only on the order of a quarter inch of rain. Depending on which side of the front you fall, highs will either be in the 60s (well inland) or upper 70s (most of Houston, probably). Nights in Houston will probably stay in the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Right now I don’t see much of a pattern change for the weekend. I think most of the region will be pretty warm, in the 70s at least, without much of a cooldown overnight. Rain chances will be on the order of 20 to 30 percent, and for the most part I think we’ll just see a lot of clouds.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. (Weather Bell)

Is winter over?

I really don’t want to tempt fate here, but the next 10 days or so do look pretty warm. If you’re looking around the killing fields—I mean, your garden and landscaping—you may be wondering if its safe to plant. If you live south of Interstate 10, I would bet heavily against seeing another freeze this season. But for inland areas, it’s just too early to offer such a guarantee.

And besides, it may be too early to determine whether some of your plants are truly dead. I like this advice from Texas A&M Agriculture Extension agent Larry Stein, who told the Houston Chronicle, “Obviously, we’re going to have some kind of damage, but the extent of it won’t be known for a while. We tell people to learn to like ugly. Basically, leave it ugly for a while … to give the plants time to recuperate and actually see the full extent of the damage.”

The worst is behind Houston with one cold night left and 60s on the horizon

Good morning. We hope this finds you well today. If you are available to help out in the community, Crowdsource Rescue is looking for volunteers in the Houston area to deliver relief today to those that need some:

Here’s a quick roundup on some key issues:

Power: Nothing new that I have seen from ERCOT this morning, and CenterPoint is reporting all but 3,900 customers with power (as of 6:30 A.M.). We don’t expect a repeat of this week’s mess, but we’d encourage you to continue conserving power where you are able for another day.

Water: For the city of Houston, it sounds like a boil water notice will remain in effect through much of the weekend. There will be water distribution today for folks who are unable to boil. Many other communities are in similar situations right now, so please monitor your community’s social media feeds or websites for information on status and bottled water availability.

Roads: Only a handful of issues remain out there, but they do exist so please drive cautiously, especially the next few hours. Check Houston Transtar’s website for the latest road conditions.

On to the weather.

Today

We are beginning the day with a hard freeze across much of the region. Temperatures have bottomed out at 27° at both Bush and Hobby Airports, colder elsewhere.

A hard freeze is occurring this morning across the region, with temperatures in the 20s everywhere except the coast. (Weather Bell)

With the sun out in force today, look for temps to bounce back above freezing by 10 to 11 A.M., and our high temperature will likely push well into the 40s in much of the area.

Saturday

Tonight will be the last really cold night. Expect a light freeze in Houston and points south and east (though coastal and bayfront communities may just barely get below 40 for a brief time). Another hard freeze is possible north and west of Houston, though the hours spent that will be a little less tomorrow morning than they were today. Saturday should see ample sunshine again with a few more clouds by late day and highs well into the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Sunday & Monday

It will be downright balmy on Sunday morning, with low temperatures only in the upper 30s and low 40s, approaching 50 at the coast. We will have a good deal of cloud cover on Sunday, but that won’t stop temperatures from hitting the 60s!

Soak up every bit of Sunday’s high temperature forecast. (WeatherBell)

Now, a cold front will sweep through the region on Sunday night, but this will be of the kinder, gentler variety like we’ve seen most of winter here. No organized rain is expected, and we’ll see lows mainly in the upper-30s to low-40s and highs in the low-60s behind the front for Sunday night and Monday into Monday night.

Rest of next week

One thing we can say with some confidence is that it looks fairly warm next week. There’s a good chance we’ll see a day or two in the 70s, as well as milder nighttimes. There should be another modest cold front flirting with us on Thursday and Friday, but the details around that are a bit uncertain. But we would expect some rain with that system. More on Monday!

Hard freeze on the way tonight, as Houston nears the end of the cold wave

Good evening, everyone. We just want to freshen up the situation a bit for you this evening. Thank you to Eric for holding down the fort as I wrangled power, water, work, and children like so many of our readers the last couple days. I hope this finds you powered.

CenterPoint is still reporting about 15,000 customers without power. This means 99.5% of the Houston area should have power back now. Just over 350,000 customers are still without power across Texas, which is down from 620,000 this morning. Many of those are due to issues stemming from ice in recent days. Per ERCOT, we’re still in a tenuous situation, but it sounds a like things are much more stable than they have been.

So it goes. We encourage you to continue to conserve power so the overall situation continues to improve.

The water situation is still a bit difficult. A boil water notice continues in Houston and many other places.

The city of Houston is directing bottled water distribution through city council member offices, so we’d encourage you to reach out your representative’s office if you need access. As for other communities, please check their websites, social media feeds, etc. Various news media in the city have also put together lists for this.

If you or someone you know need something more urgently or can provide support to those that may have those needs, please utilize the Crowdsource Rescue website. This organization has been working tirelessly and doing great things.

I’d encourage our readers to drop any advice or information about other organizations doing important work through the freeze in the comments section.

On to the weather.

Tonight & tomorrow

It was nice to see the sun in much of the area today, and temperatures did push 40 degrees. Meanwhile, Del Rio saw 10 inches of snow. It’s been a weird, weird week, y’all.

Clear skies and diminishing winds will allow for another night of cold, cold temperatures.

Nighttime lows will be in the 20s for most areas away from the coast. (Weather Bell)

Nighttime lows will be in the 30s for Galveston, around 30 or upper-20s in the Bay Area and Chambers County, mid to upper 20s for the south side of Houston and Brazoria County, mid-20s north of Houston and Fort Bend County, and low-20s, with pockets of upper-teens possible in Montgomery County, Liberty County, and points north. Generally, the farther north and west you go, the colder it will be. Thus, a Hard Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for most of the region. Continue to keep pipes and plants fully protected, and make sure to check on people and bring pets inside.

The good news is that temperatures will recover quickly tomorrow. All areas should be back above freezing by late morning with full sunshine. Look for highs tomorrow to top out in the mid-40s in most places except the far northwest.

There will likely be another freeze tomorrow night, but temperatures will probably be about 3 to 6 degrees warmer than tonight. The finish line is in sight. I’ll have the latest on the rest of the forecast tomorrow morning, and I can almost promise to bore you to tears, which is exactly what I think we’re looking for right now.