Good morning. As we discussed in Monday’s post, we’re not going to see much sunshine from now through Saturday, and aside from Wednesday our weather will be unseasonably warm. The good news is that we don’t see any conditions that should be too disruptive during the busy Thanksgiving travel weekend.

Tuesday

Some very light showers are possible today in Houston, but for the most part this will simply be a gray, warm day. Southwest winds will bring warm air into the region throughout the day, and this could push high temperatures into the upper 70s or low 80s—it will be warmer to the southwest of the city despite the persistent cloud cover. The region will experience another warm night before a cold front arrives early on Wednesday.

Check out the European ensemble forecast for Houston cloud cover this week. White means clouds, blue clear skies. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

The aforementioned front will arrive around midnight to the northwest of Houston, and should sweep through the area before sunrise on Wednesday. The front’s passage may be accompanied by some diffuse, light to moderate showers, but we don’t expect any really organized activity. We may see some partial clearing of the skies on Wednesday, allowing highs to rise into the mid- to upper-60s, but this November-like weather won’t last for long as the front stalls and returns as a warm front later Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Thanksgiving

As we’ve been saying for awhile, Thanksgiving should be a mostly gray, humid affair with sunrise temperatures of around 60 degrees rising to the mid-70s. There will be enough moisture to squeeze out some very scattered, light rainfall, but likely nothing that will last too long or provide any meaningful accumulations. Lows Thursday night will struggle to fall below 70.

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Good morning. After Sunday’s stunning weather, what lies ahead for this week? Unfortunately, it’s mostly blah weather if you were hoping for a cool and crisp Thanksgiving. But fear not, the beginning of December will bring more seasonal weather. Speaking of seasons, there’s still time to support Space City Weather during our once-a-year fundraiser. Click here to donate or buy an umbrella or t-shirt. Thank you so much.

Monday

Today will be the last partly to mostly sunny day for Houston until the coming weekend. Onshore winds are already moving across the area, and they will become stronger later today. Southerly winds could gust as high as 20mph by this afternoon. High temperatures should reach into the mid- to upper-70s this afternoon. Building clouds and the warmer, moist air should prevent low temperatures from falling much below the upper 60s tonight.

Tuesday

This will be a cloudy, warm, and humid day with high temperatures near 80 degrees. Some light showers are possible during the daytime, but these should neither be heavy nor long-lived. For the most part we should just see clouds. It will be a warm night ahead of a cold front passage. This front likely will push through Houston sometime between 3am and 9am on Wednesday morning, and any rains should end quickly after it passes.

NAM forecast map of dewpoints shows the cold front location at 5am Wednesday. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

The front will shove some short-lived, fairly dry air into the region at the surface. However, moisture will stream back into the area above the surface, and this should help to keep things partly to mostly cloudy on Wednesday. Expect highs in the upper 60s. This front will stall just offshore, but should push far enough to allow for low temperatures in the 50s on Wednesday night.

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Brace your sinuses: We will be dealing with some ups and downs over the next 7 to 10 days. We’re about to end one of the “ups” and head into a brief “down” period this weekend, but if you have weekend plans, it looks delightful. As for the forthcoming holiday weekend? I’ll be spinning the wheel of discontent to determine what to forecast for you. Read on.

Today

We’ve seen a few showers pop up this morning across the region. As I write this, some heavier downpours are ongoing from near the Galleria into Spring Branch, lifting quickly southwest to northeast. That will be the story today: A lot of clouds and occasional showers. A thunderstorm will also be possible, especially as the cold front pushes across the area late this morning and early this afternoon.

The cold front is shown as darker blue line in this forecast depiction from the HRRR model for 1 PM today (Weather Bell)

The HRRR model above depicts the front just southeast of Downtown Houston by 1 PM this afternoon. So look for the front to pass through the region between 11 AM and 3 PM before moving offshore. The temperature drop immediately behind the front will not be too impressive, but it will be noticeable. Look for temps to peak around late morning or Noon in the mid- to upper-70s. We’ll drop into the mid- to upper-60s an hour or two after the front passes by.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday look splendid. Sunshine should dominate, punctuated by a few high clouds. High temperatures will get into the mid- to upper-60s.

Saturday morning’s NWS forecast low temperatures show 40s across much of the area. (Pivotal Weather)

Lows tomorrow morning should be in the 40s just about everywhere away from the coast. Sunday morning should bottom out similarly in the 40s to low-50s.

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Houston temperatures have steadily been on an upswing for the last 10 days, climbing from the 40s for three days, into the 60s, the 70s, and finally on Wednesday reaching 80 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Despite the warming trend, temperatures this month are still running nearly 8 degrees below normal for November. We’ll have another warm day, plus some of Friday, before a decently strong front arrives to bring chilly weather back.

Houston’s temperatures have been climbing for the last nine days. (National Weather Service)

Thursday

Conditions today should be similar to Wednesday, albeit with more clouds and a little wind. Even with mostly gray skies, temperatures today should push into the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees with plenty of humidity. Some scattered, mostly light showers may move through the region today from the southwest, but any heavier rain should wait until Friday’s front. Low temperatures tonight may not fall below 70 for some parts of the metro area.

This NAM model forecast for dewpoints shows the cold front’s position by 3pm Friday. (Weather Bell)

Friday

The first half of Friday will keep the warm, humid trend going ahead of the cold front. This should arrive in northwest Harris County some time around noon or shortly after, and push through the metro area before sunset. Rain accumulations look to be modest, with one-quarter to one-half inch west of Interstate 45, and perhaps a little more than one-half inch to the east. In any case, we should see gradually clearing skies on Friday night as temperatures fall to around 50 degrees for most of Houston.

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