An active weather pattern over Texas will slowly increase our shower chances each day this weekend. Generally, the deeper into the holiday weekend you go, the better the rain chances will become. Today and tomorrow probably won’t be too bad. Sunday could see heavier rain west of Houston and Monday could see more widespread coverage of thunderstorms in the Houston area. Specifics beyond “showers and storms are possible” will be hard to come by more than 12 to 18 hours in advance; such is the nature of weather patterns like this. Let’s walk through each day and tell you what we know at this time.

Today

Expect some clouds and some sun today, with sun probably becoming more dominant as we roll toward afternoon. There’s a little more moisture available today, so we will at least mention that a shower or storm is possible. As I am finishing writing this, it’s evident that some showers have popped up out toward Wharton County and up through Columbus, well west of Houston but somewhat sudden and unexpected this morning. We think most activity should be spotty (call it like 10 to 20 percent or so), and storms should be very much the exception, not the rule today but hopefully these morning showers are not a harbinger of a busted forecast to come. We will see!

It’ll be hot and humid with highs around 90° or so for the fifth day in a row.

Tonight

Another round of showers and storms in North Texas may just have enough “oomph” to hold together as it drops south and east late tonight. We could see a shower or a thunderstorm, mainly north of Houston after 3 AM or so. For most of us? Just mostly cloudy with a slight shower chance or some mist. Lows will be in the 70s.

Saturday

On Saturday, the best ingredients for thunderstorms remain mostly inland or to our west, which means Hill Country may be the favored area for more numerous showers. We’ll call it a spotty day once again for Houston with a few showers or storms possible, once more being the exception rather than the rule. Odds of storms may go up a bit as you go to the north and west of Houston.

Rainfall between Saturday morning and Sunday morning is likely going to be most significant west of I-35, or way back in Hill Country or parts of South Texas. For Houston? Probably not too significant. (NOAA via Weather Bell)

Look for another hot day with highs likely staying in the upper-80s or low-90s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday

So on Sunday, the best ingredients for storms drift a little closer to Houston. While we think the coverage of storms will still be highest to the west of Houston, there should be slightly better odds for much of the area to see storms. I would say storm chances jump up close to 50 percent on average for Sunday afternoon, higher west of I-45, lower east of I-45.

Storm chances on Sunday will still be highest north & west of Houston, but most of the area will be at least at risk for some storms Sunday afternoon. (NOAA via Weather Bell)

Sunday’s storms could also be better organized than what we see Saturday in Texas, so heavier rain is possible. We would say that areas west of Grand Parkway up through Conroe stand the best chance of heavier rains impinging on plans Sunday afternoon. But again, specific details are tough to pin down, so most of the area has at least a chance at some storms Sunday.

A muggy Sunday morning in the 70s will give way to highs only in the mid-80s, maybe  upper-80s with clouds.

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Here’s the state of play for Houston’s weather over the course of the next week: With high pressure moving away, and atmospheric moisture levels rising, the region will be susceptible to showers and thunderstorms beginning this evening through most of next week. In addition there will be some triggers for storms moving into Texas. However, there is a lot of uncertainty as to when, precisely, we’re going to see rain. So while rainfall will be possible every day, it won’t be probable on most days.

Thursday

We’ll see more clouds today, with winds from the southwest at perhaps 10 to 15 mph. Some breaks in the clouds should allow highs to push up to around 90 degrees this afternoon. An upper-level disturbance will move into Houston later this afternoon and evening. It appears that a capping inversion will hold over the city and coastal regions, but areas to the north and west of the city may see some showers. The chance of this is pretty low, however, probably less than 20 percent. Lows Thursday night will only drop into the mid-70s.

High temperatures will hit about 90 degrees on Wednesday. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday

Friday will see a similar setup albeit with increasing atmospheric moisture levels. Forecast models indicate showers are most likely to develop south of Interstate 10 on Friday, but chances remain fairly low, likely in the 20 to 30 percent range. This should be another partly to mostly cloudy day with highs near 90 degrees.

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Good morning. As I walked outside last night it seemed like I could feel the last dry parcel of air leaving the region. I’m not sure whether Houston has experienced its last front of the spring of 2020, but we’re now in a pattern where humidity will rule the day, as it does in summer in Houston. We’ll have a couple of warm, partly sunny days before clouds and then rain chances return for Memorial Day Weekend. If you’re heading to the beach, Saturday may be your best bet.

Wednesday will be another quite warm day. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday

Some clouds have developed this morning across the region as moisture pools beneath a capping inversion, but skies should still clear out by around noon or shortly thereafter. This, combined with light southerly winds, should allow temperatures to reach up into the low- to mid-90s. Cloud cover will increase again overnight, preventing lows from dropping below the mid-70s for most of the Houston region.

Thursday

As high pressure moves away from the region, our weather will begin to slowly change on Thursday. This will likely mean partly sunny instead of mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures should back off slightly to perhaps around 90 degrees. We can’t entirely preclude the possibility of light showers to the northwest of Houston, but it seems unlikely to me. Clouds build again Thursday evening, making for another warm and humid night.

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The story of this week’s weather continues to be the heat. On Monday, Houston had its warmest day in eight months. The official high of 94 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport was the hottest temperature since September 16, 2019. Last year, the first day of temperatures reaching 94 degrees or higher came on June 1. In any case, summer has arrived in Houston.

Tuesday

If you liked Monday’s heat you’ll love today. With high pressure still firmly in place, and mostly sunny skies, we can expect highs to top Monday by a few degrees. ( The record high temperature for May 19 in Houston is 95 degrees.) Humidity levels remain a bit lower than normal, and while this will help the air heat up faster, the slightly drier air will also help rein in the heat index this afternoon.

Welcome to summer, Houston. Here are Tuesday’s forecast highs. (Pivotal Weather)

As hot as temperatures will be today—and we’ll be running a good 8 to 10 degrees above “normal” highs on Tuesday—there should be just enough dry air hanging around to make for a pleasant evening as the sun goes down. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the low 70s.

Wednesday

As winds shift from the southwest to the south, we’re going to see the formation of some clouds on Tuesday night, and some of these should linger into Wednesday. This will also mark the return of more characteristic humidity for Houston, and this in turn should limit highs into the low- to mid-90s.

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