Houston to see solidly winter-like weather for awhile now

Good morning. Temperatures range from near freezing in Montgomery County to the upper 40s along the coast on what should be our coldest morning until at least Sunday. Houston’s basic pattern is pretty well locked in, with a slow warming trend from now through Friday, before the next front arrives and makes for a cold and breezy weekend ahead.

Tuesday

Today will not warm up a whole lot, as an upper-level disturbance will help to generate some cloud cover. As a result, expect highs to only reach into the mid- to upper-50s, and with light to moderate winds out of the northeast it will feel fairly chilly outside. There is a slight chance of showers this evening, although I think our air mass is dry enough that an upper-level low probably won’t produce any measurable rainfall for most areas. Lows tonight should be a couple of degrees warmer than Monday night due to the cloud cover.

Tuesday will be partly cloudy and somewhat chilly. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

We’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine on Wednesday, and local temperatures will depend on how much sunshine breaks through. Overall, highs somewhere between 60 and 65 degrees seem a good bet for most locations. As skies clear tonight, most of the region should again see temperatures drop into the 40s on Wednesday night.

Thursday and Friday

As the high pressure system moves off to the east during the middle of the week, we’ll start to see a warmer flow for Thursday and Friday, both of which will probably be mostly sunny days with highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Saturday morning will probably start out fairly mild, with temperatures in the low 50s, before the next cold front arrives. I think it will likely reach the Houston metro area sometime between sunrise and noon, although that’s not locked in. Some brief, light rain is possible with the front although for much of the area it looks to be a dry passage. Saturday afternoon and evening look breezy, with temperatures in the 50s and gusts of perhaps 20 to 35 mph.

Early-look forecast for wind gusts on Saturday afternoon show fairly blowy conditions across the region. (Weather Bell)

By Sunday morning, lows likely will drop down to around 35 to 40 degrees in downtown Houston—a good incentive to keep running during the marathon. Winds, fortunately, should begin to subside somewhat by Sunday morning, although they will continue to blow from the north at perhaps 10 mph. Highs should climb into the mid-50s beneath sunny skies, with another night of temperatures in the 30s for inland areas, and 40s along the coast.

A warming trend then begins on Monday for the region, with another front possibly moving through some time on Wednesday, and perhaps bringing somewhat better rain chances with it

Cooler and calmer weather ahead this week for Houston

Good morning. Over the next seven days Houston will see mostly winter-like weather, with only one or two days with a high temperature of around 70 degrees. If you’re participating in the Houston full or half marathon this Sunday, I’m now highly confident that conditions will be cold, perhaps with start line temperatures in the upper 30s or low 40s.

Monday

Skies have cleared out this morning for inland areas, and will soon for the coast. This will lead to a mostly sunny day, with highs in the upper 50s for most areas. Winds will blow out of the north at about 15 mph, with higher gusts, keeping a chill in the air all day. As winds die down this evening we’ll see ideal conditions for radiational cooling, with lows dropping to about 40 degrees in the city of Houston, with cooler temperatures further inland, and slightly warmer temperatures along the coast.

Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday

This will be another cool and sunny day, with highs of around 60 degrees. Winds will be lighter, but shift to come from the northeast and then the east. As a result, temperatures on Tuesday night will still be chilly, but 5 to 10 degrees warmer.

Wednesday

A bit warmer, with highs in the mid-60s, and a few more clouds as high pressure shifts away. Lows will be around 50 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions in outlying areas.

Thursday and Friday

These should be the warmest days of the week, with a southerly and southwesterly flow pushing highs into the upper 60s on Thursday, and low- to mid-70s on Friday. Expect mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s, so it’s never really going to be “sticky” outside, however.

Friday will be the warmest day of the week, but humidity will not be super high. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

A strong cold front should arrive sometime between Friday evening and mid-day Saturday. Questions yet to be answered are whether any rain will accompany the front (probably not) and how cold the air mass will be (fairly cold, probably). Depending on the front’s timing, high temperatures on Saturday are likely to be around 60 degrees, with gusty northerly winds. Saturday night should be quite chilly, with a colder day on Sunday likely in the 50s. Winds should be lighter on Sunday, helping with the run. Details to come. A warming trend should begin on Monday.

Muggy, somewhat rainy Sunday before a front sweeps through

Good morning. The Houston region saw some pretty gnarly weather on Saturday night, with storms producing pockets of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, prodigious amounts of lightning, and potential tornadoes. (One near Humble is likely to be confirmed later today). Some area bayous, such as Greens and Luce, saw waters rise to the top of their banks, but these floodwaters should now be receding. The good news is that conditions will settle down somewhat today, and then turn cold, calm, and winter-like for the first half of this week.

Estimated rainfall for Saturday and Saturday night. (NOAA)

The focus for rain showers today will turn toward coastal areas, generally south and east of Highway 59/Interstate 69. These areas may see up to 0.5 or 1 inch later this morning and into the afternoon hours before a cold front arrives. The front should reach northwest areas this morning, central Houston during the early afternoon hours, and push off the coast by late afternoon or around sunset. As the front moves through its dry air will scour showers from the region. We should expect no rain tonight.

The first half of the week will see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the 60s and lows generally in the 30s (for inland areas) and 40s. Our next real rain chances will not come until the end of the coming work week.

Tremendous rainfall & a possible tornado west of Houston tonight; improving overnight

Apologies for the late (or early) post, but given the situation across the area tonight, I felt we needed to update.

We’ve got two main issues of concern: Tornadoes and flooding.

The tornado threat has flared up and down since this afternoon. None have looked especially menacing, but at a couple points we did observe tornadic debris signatures; once this afternoon just northeast of IAH Airport, the other with the late evening storms near the Beltway and I-10 west of Houston.

The tornado threat has lulled now, but just be aware that another storm or two could produce isolated, brief tornadoes. I believe that threat has peaked, but still have a way to get warnings if possible overnight.

A possible tornadic debris signature (TDS), indicating lofted debris from a tornado was noted on radar this evening (upper panel) just inside the Beltway north of I-10. (RadarScope)

As far as flooding goes, there is serious street flooding west of Houston, particularly from around Westpark & Highway 6 through I-10 and the Beltway northeast to near Greenspoint. Rainfall was at one point coming down at over 4 inches in an hour between Briarforest and Spring Branch. Please stay off the roads west of Houston, as that will take time to drain.

Rain totals have been widely variable, but 4-6″ has fallen west of Houston and also well northeast toward Liberty County since Saturday. (Harris County Flood Control)

The Spring Branch area may also see creeks and drainage out of banks for a time before it subsides.

From here, we should see support for storms begin to fade. The rain will become more sporadic and intermittent, easier for drainage to keep up with. Through about 3 AM, however is when things will be the most dicey. Look for deteriorating road conditions up north between Aldine and IAH into Kingwood as well, but the hope would be that rain rates would be less than what we observed in Spring Branch.

Most of this will be done by morning, and while there is a continued chance of showers or storms tomorrow, they should not be this significant or severe. We’ll update you later tomorrow morning. Hope you’re able to get some sleep tonight.