In brief: Houston will see temperatures spike on Tuesday ahead of a weak front that may (very) briefly provide some drier air. The rest of the week looks warm and humid, with a chance of rain returning by the weekend.

Above average temperatures

As we have been discussing, Houston has been experiencing a warm spell in the middle of May. During the last five days, the average temperature (the daily high and low, divided by two) has been 9 or 10 degrees above normal. This weather has largely been driven by a high pressure system that brought sinking air and mostly sunny skies. This high pressure system has now shifted away, but for reasons discussed below we are still going to be quite warm this week, with one especially hot day (Tuesday) in the forecast.

Monday

Highs today should peak in the low 90s, and skies that are at least partly cloudy should help keep a lid on temperatures. In addition to high humidity, we will see fairly strong southerly winds, gusting up to 30 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight will be muggy, perhaps only briefly dropping below 80 degrees in the city of Houston. Coastal locations, of course, will see moderately cooler days and warmer nights.

Tuesday

A cool front will approach the area on Tuesday, and this will result in compressional heating as winds turn to come from the southwest. (Effectively, the front is compressing and heating air ahead of it as it advances). How hot we get on Tuesday will depend on cloud cover during the afternoon, but much of the region has a solid chance to get into the upper 90s. One other thing to watch for is the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms with the front. I think a capping inversion will be too much for the front to overcome, but it’s something we cannot rule out.

Drier air from this front should eventually move into the area over night, possibly reaching all the way down to the coast. Most of the area could see lows in the lower 70s by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

The front, to the extent it impacts our area, will be briefly lived. But it should have some impact on Wednesday’s weather, bringing mostly sunny skies, highs in the lower 90s, and somewhat lower humidity. But it will be washed away quickly, with humidity climbing by Wednesday night. Expect low temperatures in the mid-70s.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be a pair of mostly sunny, humid days with high temperatures in the low 90s for most, with overnight lows in the mid-70s. We should see southerly winds, but gusts probably won’t get above 15 or 20 mph.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see ongoing, mostly sunny weather with high temperatures in the low 90s. However, with only modest high pressure in place I think there is perhaps a 10 percent chance of some showers on Saturday afternoon, and 30 percent on Sunday. So that will be something to watch for.

Next week

The overall pattern for next week looks slightly cooler (highs around 90 degrees, maybe) and wetter. We sure could use some rain, and the atmospheric setup would support it. But I certainly am not going to confidently forecast rain 7 to 10 days from now after an extended dry spell. However, we can at least have some hope for change.

In brief: This post covers our official summer outlook for Houston, forecasting temperature and precipitation for June, July, and August. We think this summer will be hot, of course. But we have some hope that it won’t be exceptionally hot like 2023 and 2024.

When is summer?

Let us begin this post by defining what summer is in Houston. If we go strictly by the equinox, summer begins on June 21 and will end on September 22. Some readers may think, well, actually it feels a lot like summer outside right now. However, a person on Threads has the right of it with this sentiment:

It can feel like summer in Houston from mid-May through mid-October. However, I don’t like that definition because parts of May can still feel spring-like (here’s hoping a front makes it next week) and we also can start to have some hope for real cool fronts starting in mid-September. Therefore, we prefer the meteorological definition of summer in Houston: June, July, and August. And since we’re two weeks from June 1, let’s get to the outlook.

Temperatures

Let me tell you, the presence of a fairly persistent ridge in mid-May, and temperatures solidly in the mid-90s, does not give Matt and I the warm and fuzzies about the upcoming summer. It engenders some dread. However, perhaps all is not lost.

An often important player, El Niño or La Niña, is unlikely to be a factor this summer. We generally expect neutral conditions to persist through August. For this reason we can look at trends over the last several years, as well as statistical modeling, to get an idea of what to expect for the upcoming summer.

The last few years, especially 2023 and 2024, have seen exceptional heat in Houston. We have set all kinds of records in daytime and especially nighttime temperatures. That trend, in concert with this month’s early onset of temperatures in the mid-90s (we have set multiple high temperature records this week) is very concerning. However, when we look at the seasonal modeling, the forecast is for near-normal temperatures in June, July, and August.

So what to make of all of this? I like the solution from NOAA’s seasonal temperature outlook (shown above), which predicts a likelihood of above normal temperatures this summer. However we can have some hope, I think, that this summer won’t be frying-pan hot like the last two years.

Precipitation

I’m going to throw my hands up in the air on this one. The seasonal modeling isn’t much help here (some models are very dry, and some less so). As is often the case, whether we see a drought this summer will come down to a couple of factors. The first is high pressure, if we get persistent systems that set up for weeks at a time, we can pretty quickly slip into drought conditions during the hot summer months (the region is doing mostly fine now). And secondly, will we see low pressure systems, depressions, or tropical storms and hurricanes from the Gulf? We certainly don’t want the latter two, but often times the only way to get meaningful rain in July and August is from tropical lows.

NOAA, for what its worth, is calling for near normal, to slightly above normal precipitation this summer in Houston. We shall see, I guess. The trick in Houston in the summer is to somehow get some rain, but not a ton of rain, all at once. Hard to do in August, I’m afraid.

A message from our longtime partner, Reliant

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In brief: The heat goes on. And on. Houston is also dealing with a good bit of haze and smoke in the air from Central American agricultural fires, common in late spring. We remain cautious about a brief cool front next week, however.

First, a quick programming note. As summer is now underway in Houston, look for the Space City Weather summer outlook later this morning from Eric!

Haze, haze go away

Temperatures this week, while very, very hot have actually come up a couple degrees short of forecasts for the most part. Not by like 10 degrees or anything but something on the order of 1 to 3 degrees. Why? Almost certainly because of the low clouds and haze that have been ever-present over the area.

Why the haze? Well, this is the time of year when agricultural burning is ongoing in Mexico and Central America. How much? A lot.

With winds out of the south across the Gulf, this will transport all that smoke into our area. This is a common issue here in Texas this time of year, but it feels a little worse because of how hot it is so early. Whatever the case, given the number of fires ongoing and the amount of smoke already in the air to our south, I do not expect that this haze will relent anytime soon.

Today through Sunday

The heat continues. We may begin to push heat advisory criteria at some point soon. We’ve had a couple bursts of drier air this week that helped keep heat index values mostly in check (we did touch 100° for heat index at both IAH and Hobby yesterday briefly). While that could continue, we should begin to see a bit less wind. Overall, it will just start feeling a little more uncomfortable today, tomorrow, and perhaps Sunday. Expect highs in the low to mid-90s all three days with clouds, sun, and haze.

Rain chances are pretty close to zero, however, if you live around Brenham, Navasota, or Huntsville, it looks like there will be scattered thunderstorms firing up to your northwest on Friday afternoon. I would not be shocked if some of those make an attempt to reach these areas this evening. Just something to note.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday will probably just serve as an extension of the current weather pattern. So look for clouds, sun, haze, and 90s.

Now, later Tuesday there could be some showers or thunderstorms around closer to the area. And this continues to look like it *may* come with a brief front. If that can happen, it would still be rather hot on Wednesday, but the front would take a huge bite out of the humidity, in addition to cooling off our nights a bit. Will it happen? <Cue: Dramatic music> Find out Monday on the next edition of <studio audience cheering> SPACE! CITY! WEATHER!

In brief: Heat records are continuing to fall across the region as Houston (and much of Texas) falls under the sway of high pressure. In today’s post we explain just how abnormal this is for May, and look ahead to a hot weekend. There is a modest chance of some relief next week.

Heat records fall

As expected, the city of Houston broke its high temperature record on Wednesday. The new mark of 96 degrees surpasses the old record of 93 degrees, set back in 2018. The local office of the National Weather Service also provided some additional nuggets of information to put this May heat wave into context:

• The average date of the city’s first 95-degree day is June 13, this year we did it on May 13
• Before this year, the last time Houston was this hot, this early in May was 1967 (96 on May 8)
• This year’s mark of 95 on May 13 is the fifth earliest we’ve been that hot it in a calendar year

In addition, we are likely to tie or exceed the city’s record high temperature today (94 degrees, set in 2018) and possibly on Friday (94 degrees, 2022) although by then we might see a very slight moderation in temperatures.

Thursday

If you’ve stepped outside during the last couple days, you have a pretty good idea of what to expect for Thursday. Partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to a sunny afternoon, with high temperatures generally in the mid-90s in Houston, with upper 90s possible further inland, and slightly cooler highs closer to the coast. Southerly winds will, again, be gusty from the south at up to 25 mph. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Not much changes this weekend, when most of the area should see highs in the low- to mid-90s. There may be some variance in cloud cover, with a few more clouds on Friday and Sunday, but in general I still expect there to be a fair amount of sunshine during the daytime hours. We can expect that persistent southerly breeze through the weekend, with gusts peaking during the afternoon hours. Nights remain the same, warm and muggy. Rain chances are close to, but not quite zero.

Next week

The first half of next week starts out warm, essentially a continuation of this week’s weather. However much of our model guidance is now hinting at a weak front approaching, and possibly pushing into the area by mid-week. This certainly is no guarantee, and its impact should be limited. But at least it may spark some showers, and give us a bit of drier air. We’ll just have to see how the forecast evolves over the next few days.