In brief: Houston has no weather concerns today, and most of Thursday should be fine. But beginning Thursday evening, and during the overnight hours, the region faces the threat of heavy rainfall. But for now, it’s only a threat, as our overall confidence is low. We’ve put a Stage 1 flood alert in place for areas along and south of Interstate 10.

Wednesday

Houston’s high temperature reached 89 degrees on Tuesday at Bush Intercontinental Airport, the city’s official measuring station. Because there will be more clouds today, highs will likely top out in the mid-80s, but with dewpoints in the low 60s it will feel more humid outside. Winds will generally be light, from the southeast. The humidity party continues tonight, when lows will only drop into the upper 60s for most locations. There will also be a slight chance of some rain showers after midnight.

Thursday and Friday

I’d love to provide you with some concrete answers about what to expect with the potential for heavy rainfall to end the work week, but they’re in short supply. Here’s what we do know. Most of Thursday, in Houston, should be fine. If there is heavy rainfall during the daytime, it likely will occur to the southwest of Houston, closer to Matagorda Bay than Houston and its suburbs.

Beginning Thursday evening, and lasting through Friday afternoon, the environment over Houston will become more favorable for heavy rainfall with an atmospheric disturbance and plenty of moisture to work with. But does that mean you’re going to get 4 inches of rain on top of your house? No, it does not. Much of our guidance continues to indicate that the heaviest rains will fall to the west or, more likely, southwest of the Houston region.

We are just now coming into the forecasting range of higher-resolution weather models. These are trending much drier than the global models (which have shown a few inches of rain over the Houston metro area on Thursday night and Friday). By contrast, the higher resolution models are much spottier in terms of showers and accumulations. So which is correct? Well, normally in such situations I would side with the higher-resolution models, but they absolutely missed on Sunday night’s storms that moved through Houston.

The bottom line is that the region faces the potential for heavy rainfall to end the week, but the bust factor is high. Yesterday I called for a total of 1 to 4 inches of rainfall across Houston, and I think that’s still a good forecast range. This type of rain would be enough to cause some street flooding, but not much more. We will continue to watch things closely for you.

Saturday and Sunday

We remain pretty confident that any rain showers, such as they are, should end Friday night or early Saturday. This should leave us with a couple of warmer, at least partly sunny weekend days. Look for highs in the mid-80s with plenty of humidity. Some of the more intrepid among you might try to take that first dip in the pool, even. That’s because nighttime temperatures won’t provide much cooling, dropping only to around 70 degrees.

Next week

Do you like the warmer temperatures and humidity? Well, you’re in luck. After Monday and Tuesday, when a weak front may briefly bring some drier air, most of next week should bring days in the mid- to upper-80s with plenty of humidity. Perhaps we’ll see a stronger front by the following weekend. We’ll see.

In brief: Houston faces a couple of warm (almost hot?) days before clouds and rain chances increase to end the week. The period of Thursday night into Friday looks to be the wettest time, and there is the potential for several inches of rainfall, especially south and west of Houston. To that end we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for areas along and south of Interstate 10 on Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday

Take a little extra time as there is a fair bit of fog this morning on roadways. It should clear out by mid-morning at the latest, leaving sunny skies. This combination of sunshine and a warm flow will allow high temperatures to spike this afternoon into the upper 80s, with some west and southwest parts of Houston likely reaching 90 degrees. This will be aided by dewpoints in the upper 50s, so while it will be quite warm, it won’t be super humid by Houston standards (that’s dewpoints in the 70s). Given the calm winds, there is also the potential for high ozone levels in the atmosphere today. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s for most locations.

Wednesday

Expect a healthy chance of fog again on Wednesday morning. As moisture levels in the atmosphere increase, we’ll see more clouds on Wednesday. This should help to limit high temperatures in the mid-80s, with another warm night.

Thursday and Friday

We are continuing to watch an evolving situation with the potential for heavy rainfall to end the week. And I know many of you are as well, with the Texas Children’s Houston Open golf tournament at Memorial Park Golf Course running from Thursday through Sunday. The good news is that, I think, the weekend should be OK. But what of Thursday and Friday?

An upper-level disturbance will lift into the area beginning Thursday and find high atmospheric moisture levels to work with. This is a fairly potent system in that it has the potential to drop 6 to 10 inches of rain somewhere in Texas later this week. However, at this time the majority of our guidance now indicates that the best chance for the highest amounts will be southwest of Houston, near the Matagorda Bay area, or perhaps further south. But that does not mean the Houston area is out of the woods as uncertainty remains.

Rain chances will start to increase on Thursday, but the potential for heavy rainfall appears to be highest on Thursday night and Friday. As for our expectations in Houston, my best guess at this point is that we will see widespread accumulations between 1 and 4 inches, with higher isolated totals. The chances for higher accumulations appear to be greater closer to the coast. For that reason, we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for areas in Houston along and south of Interstate 10 on Thursday and Friday. Please note we may continue to modify this as better data becomes available.

The bottom line is that you should prepare for the possibility of some disruptive rainfall on Thursday night and Friday, but it is by no means a certainty. Expect temperatures in the 70s, with cloudy skies when it is not raining, and plenty of humidity.

Saturday and Sunday

As the upper low lifts north of the area, rains should end on Friday night or Saturday morning, and we should be left with partly sunny skies for the weekend. Expect highs both days in the low- to mid-80s with a fair bit of humidity. So if you have outdoor activities, at this point, they look fine. Nights will be warm and muggy, in the upper 60s for most locations.

Next week

Most of next week looks fairly warm and muggy as well, with highs likely in the 80s somewhere and warm nights as we get into April.

In brief: Some areas of Houston got hit by Sunday night’s storms, and others did not. We will now experience a few days of calmer weather this week before the chance for heavy rainfall on Thursday and Friday of this week. The details of that forecast remain hazy, but it’s something to watch.

Rainfall needed

For central and northwest areas of the Houston region, Sunday night’s storms brough some much needed rainfall, with one or more inches in an area roughly between Highway 290 and I-45 North. Much of the rest of the metro area got significantly less. That could change during the second half of this week, with the combination of an upper-level system and plenty of moisture in the atmosphere bringing a healthy chance of rain to the forecast. It is still too early to say whether this is a case in which most of Houston receives about 1 inch of rain, or whether some areas are at risk of 4 to 6 inches. We will be watching it closely.

Monday

Last night’s storms were prompted by a weak front sagging into the area, and this has helped push lows down to near 60 degrees this morning for much of Houston. This is likely to be the “coldest” we get for the next week at least. Highs today will reach the lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies and mostly calm winds. The onshore flow will return later this afternoon or this evening, so lows are unlikely to fall below the low 60s tonight.

Tuesday

This will be a warm—borderline hot—day as we see mostly sunny skies and a warm southerly flow. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s with a few locations possibly hitting 90 degrees. Some slightly drier air (dewpoints in the upper 50s) will help the air warm more rapidly. Winds will generally be light, perhaps at 5 mph from the east. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the mid-60s.

Wednesday

A few more clouds on Wednesday should help to limit high temperatures in the mid-80s. After Wednesday the region will not see much (any?) sunshine until at least Saturday. Expect another mild night in the mid-60s.

Thursday and Friday

The period of Thursday afternoon through Friday night should bring a high chance of rain as an upper-level system moves into the region. In terms of most impactful rains, with the potential for street flooding, we’re probably looking at late Thursday night into Friday afternoon, but those details will have to wait. These will be cloudy days, with highs mostly in the upper 70s, and muggy evenings. The global models are indicating the potential for a heavy pocket of rainfall, with several inches of rain during this period. However it still is not clear whether this will line up north of the Houston metro area, or more directly over the city and its suburbs. For now I think it’s best to say that we’re going to see some rain during the second half of the work week, and there’s the distinct potential for heavy rainfall and street flooding. We may need to break out the Space City Weather flood scale, but I’m going to hold off on that decision until Tuesday’s post.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

At this point it looks like things will begin to clear up by Saturday, so if you have some outdoor plans this weekend all is not lost. Both days this weekend should see partly sunny skies with highs in the lower 80s, give or take. We cannot rule out some showers each day, but the overall odds appear fairly low. A weak front may arrive by Monday, or so, to bring us some slightly cooler nights. We’ll see!

In brief: Drought continues to expand in Texas, and pollen levels are roofing in Houston with warm, dry weather. There are some rain and storm chances for Sunday night or early Monday and again next week, but those are far from certain. Warmer weather returns and lingers.

We got the drought map update yesterday for the country, and as you can see below, drought is expanding in Texas. While the majority of the Houston area is not there yet officially, it doesn’t take much to tell we need some rain around these parts.

While West Texas and Hill Country are in exceptionally bad drought, we’ve got problems of our own locally, as evidenced by the Pauline Road Fire north of Houston on Wednesday and Thursday. This fire was apparently started as a result of a prescribed burn, and it expanded rapidly due to 20 to 30 mph winds and low humidity, along with increasingly dry ground. The type of fire conditions in Texas that are currently in place have not really been seen since 2011. So, again, we need rain.

The pollen, as Eric noted yesterday is another matter. Our tree pollen count in Houston hit over 9,000 yesterday for the first time since the brutal April of 2022, when we exceeded 12,000 on April 7th. Yesterday, should it be our peak pollen day, will be right around average but the second highest since 2017.

You can see the large jump yesterday in 2025’s data on the chart above. Historically, Houston’s tree pollen will have a handful of big days, then slowly tail off. Notice how 2022, while the worst in the data set also peaked quite late. If history is a guide, the oak pollen levels mostly responsible for this data spike should slowly (emphasis on slowly) subside in the next few weeks. But suffice to say, it will be bad at times over the next couple weeks for those with seasonal allergies. That especially holds true if we don’t get any rain this weekend.

Today and tomorrow

Winds will turn around eventually today and start coming out of the south. This will raise our humidity levels and keep us outside of red flag conditions. After a very cool start this morning, we will warm into the 70s this afternoon. A picture-perfect day.

If you’re headed to the final Friday of the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo to get a listen to Parker McCollum tonight, expect clear skies with a slight breeze on the way in. Temperatures should be around 70 degrees, slipping back into the mid-60s by the time you head back home.

Overnight lows will be about 10 degrees warmer tonight than they were this morning. That warmer start will allow Saturday to pop into the 80s. Look for a mix of sun and clouds with no weather woes.

Sunday

Most of Sunday will be fine. Expect clouds and some sun, along with warm weather. Highs should get into middle 80s on Sunday afternoon. As a disturbance drops southward during the day, we could see one or two thunderstorms pop up across the area very late Sunday afternoon, probably after 3 or 4 PM. Any of those storms could be on the stronger side.

That said, we are not currently in a severe weather risk highlight, just a “general thunderstorm” area. However, this is the type of setup where if one storm can find the right environment it could make some noise. In other words: We’re probably fine on Sunday, but there could be a storm that gets a little noisy.

There could be some strong to severe storms well north of the Houston area that form into a weakening line of thunderstorms Sunday night, arriving in the Houston or perhaps Beaumont areas late Sunday night or early Monday morning. There should not be severe weather along this front, but some lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds are possible as this moves into the area.

Monday

Any showers or storms should push offshore Monday morning, and we’ll be left with gradual clearing. Expect highs to jump back into the upper-70s or low-80s.

Rest of next week

Tuesday looks quiet right now. Wednesday may see another chance at some showers or thunderstorms, but it’s a bit soon to offer up more than just a low chance. We could see more widespread rain chances by Thursday.

In terms of additional fire weather, humidity levels look to stay high enough to avoid much more serious concerns next week. But the rain we see (or don’t see) may play a role in ultimately determining that. Monday or Tuesday will probably have the lowest humidity for the week. Temperatures will likely be a bit above 80 degrees, with morning lows in the 60s.