Good morning. A complex of showers and thunderstorms to the west of Houston associated with a large convective system appears to be fading this morning, and I don’t think it will impinge too much on our region today. That’s not to say rain chances will be zero. Overall, however, we should continue to see warm, mostly sunny and not-too muggy weather for the next several days.

Wednesday

Today will bring partly sunny skies, with highs around 90 degrees, and light northeasterly winds. This morning areas to the west of Houston, including Katy and Cypress, will see a chance of thunderstorms and briefly strong winds due to the storm complex over central Texas. These storms should wind down this morning. Later this afternoon, with daytime heating, I expect some additional shower and thunderstorm development through the early evening hours, although this should be fairly scattered across Houston. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

Skies should be mostly sunny on Thursday, with high temperatures again bouncing around 90 degrees. With daytime heating there will be about a 10 percent chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.

Friday

Look for mostly sunny skies and highs around 90 degrees.

Memorial Day Weekend

Saturday and Sunday, at this point, look like carbon copies of one another. With high pressure in place we can expect a pair of partly to mostly sunny days with high temperatures around 90 degrees, and overnight lows around 70 degrees, plus or minus depending on how far inland you are. With dewpoints in the 60s, the air will feel less sticky than it normally does during the summer, so that will be nice.

Memorial Day should bring more of the same, albeit with a few more clouds and a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon with daytime heating.

Next week

As the onshore flow reestablishes itself, we’ll see increasing humidity, but daytime temperatures should remain in the upper 80s to 90 degree range. A moistening atmosphere will make for somewhat better rain chances, so for now I’ll ballpark in a daily 30 percent chance during the afternoon hours.

Houston’s mostly sunny, and near-summer-like weather will continue for awhile. Rain chances will be on the low side through the weekend, and we’re going to see a nice fetch of somewhat drier air that will keep high humidity at bay. With summer coming, you know that won’t last, and in late May we’ll take what we can get.

Tuesday

Skies will be mostly sunny today, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Winds will be light, from the northwest, at about 5 mph. Overnight low temperatures will drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, and perhaps a few degrees lower for inland areas.

Wednesday

This will be another mostly sunny day, with highs in the upper 80s. One difference from Tuesday is that a weak disturbance may produce some light afternoon showers. I’d say chances are about 30 percent for areas along and south of Interstate 10, with lesser chances further inland. Rain chances should end by the early evening hours. Lows on Wednesday night will again drop to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny days with highs generally in the upper 80s. One positive thing about these days is that the overall flow will generally be offshore, so the humidity will be a touch lower than normal. Don’t expect dry air, but it won’t be particularly sultry either.

Memorial Day Weekend

Generally, this pattern of mostly sunny weather, slightly drier air, and highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees should hold through most of the weekend. There’s perhaps a 10 or 20 percent chance of some showers by Monday as moisture levels start to rise. But overall this looks to be a fine holiday weekend for beach and water activities.

Next week

Temperatures look to remain more or less the same for most of next week, but we’re going to see increasing humidity levels, and along with that some clouds and at least some scattershot rain chances. It’s too early to say much else with any precision.

Sunday’s temperatures were remarkably mild for late May in Houston, with highs generally in the upper 70s to 80 degrees during the afternoon hours thanks to a weak front this weekend, and persistent cloud cover. That pattern will change this week, mostly sunny to sunny skies for most of the week. But we’re not going to get too hot.

One thing to note, however. We’re also not going full bore into summer-like humidity this week. That is certainly coming, but with dewpoints generally in the low- to mid-60s this week our air won’t be oppressively humid. So if you’re thinking this week feels a bit like summer, well, just you wait.

Monday

Slightly cooler air will linger today, keeping high temperatures in the mid- to upper 80s despite mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the northeast, at about 5 mph, shifting to come from the east overnight. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, and perhaps a few degrees cooler for inland areas.

Tuesday

Warming up a little more, with sunny skies and high temperatures of about 90 degrees. Winds will be light, out of the north, at perhaps 5 mph. Lows on Friday night will again drop to about 70 degrees in the city of Houston.

Wednesday

This will be another mostly sunny day with highs of around 90 degrees. The difference is that an atmospheric disturbance drops into the region during the daytime, and this may produce a slight or even decent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. For now let’s ballpark rain chances at 20 percent, but this may go higher.

Thursday and Friday

Both of these days should see sunny skies, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday

Warm and moderately humid conditions continue into Memorial Day weekend, with highs of around 90 degrees, and lows around 70 degrees. Skies should be mostly sunny on Saturday and Sunday, with the possibility of some clouds by Monday. We’ll see. Some slight rain chances probably return by Tuesday or so of next week, as we get close to June.

We eked out a 90 degree day on Thursday, and we’ll look to do it again today, as early summer starts to assert itself. That said, the humidity will remain fairly tame over most of the next several days, especially away from the immediate coast. All in all, about par for the course for late May.

Today

We’ll have plenty of sunshine today. Look for high levels of ozone as a result, so air quality may be a bit poor this afternoon, especially for those of you that are in a sensitive group for ozone. High temps should approach or exceed 90 degrees in many spots away from the coast.

Weekend

The weekend will feature the much discussed “cool” front that should help keep the humidity in check a little longer. Of course, that does mean the return of shower chances. On Saturday, with the front sneaking into our northern areas in the morning, some showers and storms may pop up as early as the early morning. We’d likely see those dissipate rather quickly and then some new isolated showers or storms develop in the afternoon or evening elsewhere in the region. We’d anticipate that most areas won’t see anything too crazy Saturday. A few communities will see a downpour, however.

Hit and miss showers may continue after sunset Saturday and into Saturday night, especially west of the Houston area, probably closer to San Antonio. Again, nothing major is expected, but if you have outdoor plans, maybe have an umbrella at the ready just to be safe.

As the front kind of washes itself out overhead on Sunday, we should see scattered storms across the area, focused in Houston or possibly points south. While we again don’t expect any significant issues, there could very well be a couple downpours in the area Sunday. The slight edge for outdoor plans goes to Saturday this weekend over Sunday. We aren’t expecting any big ticket totals, but a couple areas may see up to an half-inch or so of rain, while others see nothing at all. I’m keeping my expectations rather in check this weekend based on the latest data, but as always, prepare just in case a few showers or storms pop.

As far as temperatures go, we foresee upper-80s to low-90s Saturday and slightly cooler temps Sunday (low-80s) due to clouds and some of those possible showers. Morning lows should be around 70 degrees.

Early next week

Once we get to Monday, most of the impetus for driving showers and storms will have vanished. That being said, with some clouds and a good bit of sun, we could still see some showers or isolated storms, mainly south and southwest of Houston.

With the slight drop in humidity in the wake of the front, we will probably see lows mostly in the 60s to start next week. Daytime highs will still be plenty warm, with mid to upper-80s Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday’s rain chances should again be mostly focused south and west of Houston and on the lower side in general.

Later next week

I think Wednesday and Thursday carry greater coverage of showers and storms than we see Monday or Tuesday and closer to Houston proper. These storms would likely come from the east in Louisiana and be capable of some heavier downpours, thanks to a weak “backdoor” cold front. Temperatures may hold in the mid-80s here. We might get a very slight reinforcing shot of drier air behind that front to keep humidity levels in check another couple days into the weekend. But thereafter, summer should begin to flex, with warmer nighttimes (low to mid-70s) and daytime highs at or above 90° daily by the end of Memorial Day Weekend.

It’s a bit early to speculate much on the holiday weekend, but as of right now there is nothing that stands out in terms of higher rain chances or extreme temperatures. We’ll check back in on that next week.