We’d like to officially welcome you to early summer today. The next several days will feel more like later May or early June than early May. Not unheard of by any means, but certainly a change from what we’ve been experiencing much of the last month or so. The humidity is likely here for awhile. The heat may wane some eventually, thanks to a potentially wetter, stormier weather pattern in Texas.

Just a quick note on the hotter weather this weekend. Early season heat can be a little tougher on the body because we have not adapted to it yet, especially after such a comfortable spring. So please take it easy on yourself outside this weekend and practice heat safety.

Today

Some patchy fog may greet you out the door this morning, but short of that, it’s quiet. Much like yesterday, the sky may look threatening at times today, but most of the day will be fine. We’ll call it mostly cloudy with highs in the upper-80s, maybe near 90 in spots with enough sunshine. Storm chances this afternoon aren’t especially high, maybe on the order of 10 to 20 percent, but anyone that sees a storm later today could see some gusty winds, hail, legitimate downpours and lightning.

Saturday and Sunday

So, if you look at your phone’s weather app (including our own app!), it looks like this weekend is going to be miserably stormy. In reality, it’s not going to be that bad. Both days will feature a chance of showers or storms. But coverage of those storms is expected to be isolated. So plan for the chance of having your outdoor plans temporarily disrupted by storms, but I would not necessarily expect that to be the likely outcome. Sunday may carry a slightly higher chance of rain than Saturday, especially north of Houston.

One thing I would plan on is hot weather. Saturday’s forecast highs are shown above, and Sunday won’t be much different. Expect upper-80s to low-90s and morning lows in the 70s. And plenty of humidity.

Next week

The pattern this weekend is going to feature a ridge of high pressure about 20,000 feet above us. Early next week, that ridge is going to break down. It will be replaced by more of a trough, a cutoff low pressure system, or something “flatter” over South Texas. In simple language: The pattern is likely to turn more unsettled with rain chances much of next week.

Given the difficulty with specifics, I would say we’d probably copy and paste a forecast of clouds, sun, a 30 to 40 percent chance of rain each day, highs well into the 80s, and lows in the 70s.

The wetter pattern is expected to stick in Texas, with models forecasting above average rain over Texas for the next 2 weeks. The map below shows the days 8 to 14 forecast rainfall anomaly from the European ensemble mean.

We’ll see if that’s the case, but if you’ve been seeking some added rainfall this spring, you may get your wishes granted.

The temperature this morning has fallen to 63 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and I can’t help but wonder when we’ll see temperatures below 65 degrees in Houston again. Maybe in about 10 days, or maybe not until September? In any case, a much warmer and more humid pattern is coming with high temperatures near or above 90 degrees for the next week after today.

Thursday

As high pressure slides away it will be replaced by a more pronounced onshore flow and a more unstable atmosphere. For today, that means partly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds will be out of the south at 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph later this afternoon. There will be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in Houston tonight, but the bigger threat for severe weather is well to the west of the metro area over central Texas and into the Brazos Valley. Overall rain chances in Houston tonight are probably 20 percent or so. Lows will only drop into the low-70s.

Friday

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist on Friday, but for the most part we’re looking at mostly cloudy skies and warm, humid weather. Expect high temperatures to reach about 90 degrees, with southerly winds. This day will really feel like “early summer” in Houston, and the sticky conditions will stick around for awhile. Lows Friday night only drop into the mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same this weekend. If you’re looking for sunshine this weekend, the middle of the day on Saturday is probably your best bet, when skies may become partly sunny for several hours. Otherwise, clouds will be more common than clear skies. Isolated showers are possible on both days along with the sea breeze, but I would peg their chances at only about 10 or 20 percent each day. Highs will be around 90 degrees, or in the low 90s, for both weekend days. Are y’all ready to sweat?

Next week

Next week will not yield much change in our weather, at least not right away. Look for high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees most days, with lows in the mid-70s. Rain chances are going to start out at 20 percent or so, but could increase significantly by the latter part of the week in response to changes in the upper atmosphere. But my confidence in that portion of the forecast is low. Just know that heat and humidity are going to be your best and constant friend for awhile.

A message from our sponsor, Reliant

As Eric has covered this week, it’s been a glorious spring in Houston, but summer is right on its heels, with rising temperatures expected in the coming days. As a longtime supporter of Eric and Matt’s no-hype approach, Reliant wants all Houstonians to feel prepared and informed on how to save money and energy during the summer heat. Check out our energy efficiency tips below:

• Follow the four-by-four principle. During the summer months, setting your thermostat four degrees higher when you’re away from home for more than four hours can help reduce electricity usage and costs. When your thermostat is set below 78°F, each degree cooler can increase your costs by up to seven percent. While the suggested temperature for ideal energy use in the summer is 78°, we know a comfortable temperature setting is a personal preference. No matter your preferred setting, the 4×4 principle will help you reduce your usage and ultimately save on your electricity bill.
• Schedule an HVAC checkup. Now is the time to schedule a tune-up with an HVAC service professional to ensure your system is running at its best. Just as you wouldn’t take your car out for a long road trip without getting serviced, you don’t want to operate your A/C system during the long, hot summer without proper maintenance. Schedule a multi-point checkup to ensure your system is running at its best.
• Reduce the temperature on your electric water heater to 120°F. You could save three to five percent in energy costs per year.
• Check air filters monthly and replace as necessary. A clean air filter can keep your A/C running at peak condition.
• Avoid using heat-producing appliances like the clothes dryer, dishwasher, or oven during the hottest times of day. These appliances can cause your A/C to work harder to keep your home cool.
• Install a programmable thermostat, like a Nest, and you can save an estimated 10 percent a year on cooling and heating costs. You can schedule it to only run when you’re home, so you don’t waste energy cooling an empty space. And, the Nest also learns your schedule, can sense when you’re away and automatically adjusts the temperature to help you conserve
• Use blinds or curtains during the summer to reduce solar heat gain. Sunlight can increase the demand on your air conditioner by as much as 30 percent.

Find additional energy efficiency tips by clicking here.

Some people don’t like to talk about dewpoints because they’re confusing. But they’re a really helpful way to quickly assess how stick the air will feel. The scientific definition of a dewpoint is the temperature to which the air must be cooled to achieve a relative humidity of 100 percent. So if the air temperature is 70 degrees—which may sound comfortable—and the dewpoint is also 70 degrees it’s going to feel really sticky outside. But you don’t have to remember that definition for dewpoints, just this handy guide:

Dewpoints in the mid-50s or below: The air is dry and comfortable

Dewpoints in the mid-60s: The air starts feels somewhat sticky during the day, and somewhat muggy in the evenings

Dewpoints in the mid-70s or higher: Oh my god I’m dying.

I am sorry to say that today, specifically the period from around noon to late afternoon, is going to be our last shot of dewpoints in the 50s for awhile. After today we’re looking at dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the foreseeable future. While we may get a front to knock them back in 10 or more days, it is by no means a certainty. Welcome to May.

Wednesday

After some fog and clouds this morning, skies are going to clear out and leave us with a mostly sunny day. This, combined with the slightly drier air mentioned above is going to allow temperatures to pop up into the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be slight, at 5 to 10 mph, generally from the southeast. Some clouds return tonight, but lows should drop into the mid-60s for all but coast areas. This probably will be our last night in the 60s for quite a while.

Thursday

As high pressure moves off, the region will open up to a more pronounced flow off the Gulf of Mexico. This will result in more humidity and clouds, to go along with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. With increased moisture the region may see some scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday evening and overnight. The most likely areas for this will be north and west of the metro area, in places such as College Station and Conroe. I would not expect anything particularly severe. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This three day period will be hot and humid. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies each day, with daytime highs around 90 degrees or slightly above. Rain chances are not zero, and there will probably be a few isolated showers each day. But if you’re planning outdoor activities things should be fine as long as you have plan for some temporary shelter. Which to be clear, probably won’t be needed. In addition to hot days, nights will be warm and sticky, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Next week

The overall pattern does not change much next week. Daytime temperatures may drop a degree or two, but the humidity should remain more or less the same. Some better rain chances may pop up by the middle or end of next week. We’ll see.

After this morning, Houston has two more somewhat cool nights—with lows in the 60s and not oppressively high dewpoints—before things begin to warm up toward the weekend. By Friday morning we’re going to see lows only in the 70s with more humidity and well, that’s a fairly typical pattern for summer-time weather. So let’s talk about summer, which typically lasts about five months in Houston.

By strict definition “meteorological” summer runs from June through August, and “solstice” summer runs from June 21 through September 22 this year. For me, Houston’s summer typically runs from about mid-May through mid-October. Here are the four phases:

• Early summer: When we first start to see 90-degree temperatures with some regularity, but some nights in the 60s are still possible, and there’s still the thinnest hope of a weak front
• Mid summer: When highs run from 90 to 95 degrees, and nights are sultry, but you know it could still get worse
• High summer: Somewhere between late July and early September there’s a period where temperatures reach the upper 90s to low 100s and you realize, “Ok, this really is the worst.”
• Late summer: This is the period in September and early October when days grow shorter and we usually see the first front or two of the season. But most of the time it’s still hot.

We’re going to reach early summer this weekend, when we probably will see a handful of 90-degree days.

Tuesday

Today will be the last of three days with temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. High pressure will help to maintain an easterly flow, so we’re going to see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with clouds likely becoming more predominant later this afternoon. Winds will be light, out of the east. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Wednesday

Temperatures on Wednesday will reach the mid-80s, and we’re going to see a fair bit of sunshine. For a few hours on Wednesday afternoon we should actually see dewpoints drop into the 50s, which is going to be our last smidgeon of dry air for awhile. So maybe step outside and enjoy that last bit of light humidity. Because you know what’s coming, right? Winds will be light, and overnight lows will again drop into the mid-60s.

Thursday

We’ll see one more day with temperatures in the mid-80s, but with more clouds than Wednesday. Winds will also be more pronounced out of the south, gusting to 20 mph or even a bit higher. This, my friends, is the full-on return of the onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, lows on Thursday night will only drop into the low 70s. There is a slight chance of light showers on Thursday night.

Friday

Despite mostly cloudy skies, we’re going to see warm and humid weather on Friday, with highs near 90 degrees. Rain chances are about 20 percent.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same this weekend, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures of around 90 degrees. Given the moisture and a bit of instability to work with, we could see some scattered showers or possibly even a thunderstorm each day. But overall chances are probably only on the order of 20 percent. If you have plans, we’ll try to refine this forecast in the days ahead.

Next week

Temperatures back off a bit next week, maybe. Rain chances perhaps will go up. I’d ballpark chances at 20 to 40 percent each day, but my overall confidence is low. The humidity looks to stick around. The models are hinting at a chance for a weak front in 10 to 14 days, but that is far enough in the future that I’d probably not even be writing that in pencil yet. Settle in, y’all. Summer is at the gates.