In brief: Houston will see a decent chance of some showers and thunderstorms today, but beyond this we should remain hot and mostly sunny, as is often the case in August. Also typical for August is an increase in tropical activity across the Atlantic. Which is what we are presently seeing.

Right on cue, the tropics heat up

After a flurry of tropical storms in late June and early July, the Atlantic tropics were rather quiet for the last three weeks. That has changed over the weekend with the formation of the fourth named storm in the Atlantic (Dexter, which is not a threat to land), and development of a couple of additional “blobs” to watch.

First of all, some numbers. Dexter is the fourth named storm this season, and in some sense we are ahead of schedule. Historically, the “D” storm forms on August 15th. This makes it sounds like it has been a busy hurricane season, but measured by a more accurate barometer, we have seen a slow start. Our preferred measuring stick for seasonal activity is “accumulated cyclone energy,” which factors in both the duration and intensity of tropical storms. By this metric we are running at about 20 percent of normal levels.

The graphic above highlights two things. One, we are off to a relatively slow start this year. But more importantly, we remain very early in the game. The vast majority of the Atlantic season’s activity remains ahead of us, with August and September as typically the busiest months. So yes, it’s nice to have had a quiet start to the tropics season in Houston. But it does not mean a whole lot.

When we look at the tropical forecast for the next week or so, there are no distinct threats to the Gulf of Mexico. And I don’t want you to focus on any specific storms. However, what is clear is that we are entering prime time for the Atlantic season, and the background conditions (including the upper air pattern) are starting to become much more supportive of tropical storms and hurricanes. Bottom line: we really need to pay attention to this stuff for the next eight weeks or so. We will cover every conceivable threat to Texas here, and be sure and check out The Eyewall for coverage of storms across the tropical Atlantic.

Monday

Showers and thunderstorms have developed offshore this morning, and I think we’ll see a healthy chance of similar storms developing over inland areas this afternoon. The overall pattern is not supportive of widespread storms, but I do think there will be some scattered but impactful activity this afternoon and early evening in the metro area, with perhaps slightly higher chances west of I-45. Some areas may pick up 1 inch of rain or more, with most of the region staying dry. Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies this afternoon with high temperatures generally in the low- to mid-90s. Winds will be light outside of thunderstorms, from the east. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 70s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

A fairly robust ridge of high pressure will build over the southwestern United States this week, but Houston will fall on the eastern periphery. Essentially, this means that we will see typical August weather, with mostly sunny skies, highs generally in the mid-90s (with some upper 90s for far inland areas possible), and a low-end chance of showers during the afternoon along the sea breeze. Nights will be warm and muggy. As Augusts go, things could certainly be worse at what is typically the very hottest time of year in Houston.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Not a whole lot changes as we head into the weekend. Skies remain mostly sunny, and I think most of us will continue to see daytime highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances remain low, but at about 30 percent daily, are definitely not zero thanks to the sea breeze. I don’t see much of a change in this pattern any time soon.

In brief: Unsettled weather will return to Houston today through Sunday or Monday. Isolated heavy downpours are possible in spots, along with some locally stronger thunderstorms, especially Saturday and Sunday. A return to strong heat is looking likely later next week.

Welcome to August, widely considered the worst month of the year in Houston. I, Matt, disagree because I think September is worse, psychologically at least. Whatever the case, this August will start hot but not ridiculously so as thunderstorm chances re-enter the picture. By next week, we may be back on August blast furnace watch again. Another scorcher.

Today

We’re starting off today with a couple showers and downpours up in Liberty County that are drifting southward. I’d suspect those continue toward Trinity and Galveston Bays, so if you live on the east side, don’t be shocked to see some raindrops this morning.

Elsewhere, it’s quiet, but we should see showers and storms perk up in spots this afternoon with daytime heating. Many, if not most of us will stay dry today but those that see showers and storms could see some pretty hefty rainfall on the order of 1 to 2 inches in a short period of time. Otherwise, look for highs in the mid to locally upper-90s, not far off normal for this time of year.

Saturday

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should pick up tomorrow. The combination of a dying cold front to our north and lots of moisture in place should allow downpours to blossom with daytime heating. Locally heavy rain is possible. The pattern of storms won’t be typical for this time of year, as we’ll see most of them form north of Houston and drop southward, unlike typical summertime sea breeze storms which come from the Gulf and work inland.

While we aren’t currently expecting severe weather, I’ve learned over the years to be cautious of north to south moving storms in spring and summer. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an isolated case of a storm misbehaving for a short time. Just something to be aware of. Clouds and showers should hold temperatures back some tomorrow, so look for generally mid-90s and possibly a bit less hot than that in spots.

Sunday & Monday

With high pressure anchored over the Southwest and a disturbance tracking across the Plains and Texas Sunday into Monday, we should continue to see scattered storms in the area, some of which may form in interior Texas and drop southward, more like late spring than late summer. Continued unsettled conditions will prevail to close the weekend and start next week.

High temperatures will likely be in the low to mid-90s.

Once all is said and done with the storms through Monday or Tuesday, expect 1 inch or less in most spots, however some more isolated, localized places could easily see up to 2 or 3 inches in locally heavier downpours.

Rest of next week

High pressure over the Southwest is going to flex its muscles beginning Tuesday or Wednesday, and it’s likely that we see some solid heat return to the area for a time later next week.

Our next swing at 100 degrees will probably occur next Thursday or Friday. We shall see.

In brief: Houston’s high temperature hit 101 degrees Wednesday with modestly drier air. Now, as tropical moisture moves into the region we will see increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. And looking ahead to August, the start of the month appears to be fairly mild as August goes in these parts.

At least it’s a dry heat

Houston’s high temperature reached 101 degrees on Wednesday at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This was aided in part by high pressure, but also unusually dry air. During the mid- to late-morning hours in the city, the dewpoint fell into the 50s, which made the heat feel a little (emphasis on a little) more tolerable. Anyway, drier air warms more efficiently than air with higher levels of moisture, so that helped turn a hot day into a sizzling one. Moisture has already begun to increase in the atmosphere, so that will set the stage for slightly cooler, but more humid weather with rising rain chances as we get closer to the weekend.

Thursday

Speaking of rain chances, showers have developed this morning on the eastern side of Galveston Bay, in places such as Anahuac and Bolivar Peninsula. I expect these storms to hang together and move into the southern half of the region (generally south of I-10) later this morning. Additional light to moderate showers will be possible later today, but overall chances are probably only about 30 percent. An increase in clouds and atmospheric moisture levels should hold high temperatures in the upper 90s for most locations today.

Friday

This will be another day with partly to mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for most locations. There will be scattered showers throughout the day, and an increasing risk of some stronger showers Friday afternoon or evening. Again I think these will be fairly scattered in nature, but we cannot rule out a few thunderstorms if you are out an about on a Friday night. Overnight temperatures, otherwise, remain warm and muggy.

Saturday and Sunday

Even though skies should remain partly to mostly sunny this weekend, we will see our best rain chances on Saturday and Sunday. Most of the area should see intermittent light to moderate showers on Saturday, and Sunday will also likely see half the region recording some precipitation. Overall accumulations look fairly modest, in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range for most, but there may well be some bullseyes with 2-plus inches of rainfall. So while it is unlikely, we cannot entirely rule out some isolated street flooding. Highs look to be in the low- to mid-90s on both days.

Next week

All in all, for August, next week looks to be fairly typical. We can expect high temperatures generally in the low- to mid-90s, with mostly sunny days. However there will also be a daily chance of showers (nothing crazy, mind you) that will likely be driven by the sea breeze. Any days we can get through August without blistering heat or a threatening tropical system are small victories.

Tropics

Speaking of the tropics, there’s just not much happening out there at the end of July. Sure, there are a couple of tropical waves we are keeping an eye on, but nothing that appears likely to develop for at least the next week. So, dare I say, I feel pretty good about Houston’s weather heading into August? I can’t remember the last time I felt or said that.

In brief: Houston will see one more very hot and sunny day before rain chances return to the forecast. The best odds for rain come this weekend, but even then we don’t anticipate a total washout. Highs remain in the 90s throughout the forecast period, as is typical for this time of year.

Overall pattern

High pressure will hold sway for another day or two before giving way to increasing moisture levels from the Gulf. With the ridge breaking down, the Houston region will be more open to showers this weekend, although we don’t anticipate anything too calamitous. As we get later into August next week, a fairly typical pattern will set in whereby high pressure influences our weather, but there is still the possibility for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms due to the sea breeze.

Wednesday

The high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport hit 99 degrees on Tuesday, and we are likely to do the same today, and possibly push into triple digits across some parts of the area. A surge in air temperatures today will be supported by the influx of somewhat drier air from the west. It’s not clear how far this drier air will push into Houston, but we could see some rare dewpoints in the upper 50s today along and west of Interstate 45. It’s still going to be quite hot, but for areas away from the coast it should feel a little less humid. Skies will be sunny, with light westerly winds. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

The last two days of the work week will see more moisture streaming in from the Gulf, and this will start to elevate rain chances a bit, perhaps to 30 percent each day. Don’t get me wrong, these will be mostly sunny days, and any showers that develop will likely pass quickly. But the increased moisture should help to limit high temperatures to the upper 90s for most of the region.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring the highest chance of rain, likely around 50 percent for both days. The odds and accumulations of rain are likely to be higher the closer to the coast you are. For most of us, I expect rain totals in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range. However, given the tropical nature of this rainfall we cannot rule out some stronger, isolated downpours that briefly flood low-lying streets. Both of these days should still bring partly sunny skies. Highs will depend on the extent of rain and cloud cover during the afternoon hours, but probably will be in the vicinity of the mid-90s with plenty of humidity.

Next week

The first full week of August will likely bring mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Expect some isolated to scattered shower chances daily, but at this point it’s difficult to say more than this. Basically, August will do August things. Which in Houston means pain.