In brief: Today’s post takes a detailed look at what to expect from the strong cold front arriving on Thanksgiving morning, windy conditions for Black Friday shoppers, and a pleasant winter-like weekend. There’s also an outlook for the return of the rivalry between the Longhorns and Aggies on Saturday night.

For those keeping score at home, I managed to stuff four puns into the headline of this post. Ok, I’ll stop now, I promise. That’s the last pun. Anyway, we at Space City Weather hope you have a great Thanksgiving. I’d be remiss if I did not remind you that if you’re thankful for the work we do, there’s still a few more days to contribute to our annual fundraiser. You can find out more information here about ways to support the site for next year. We’ll be back here on Friday morning unless something major changes with the forecast.

Wednesday

As a southerly flow ramps up, high temperatures today will near, or possibly match records for Nov. 27 in Houston. The official high temperature is 84 degrees, set in 1989. After some clouds this morning, skies will be mostly sunny with southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph. Tonight will be warm and muggy ahead of a cool front that will push through Houston during the pre-dawn hours on Thursday.

Thursday

The front should be approaching our area by around midnight, and reach the coast no later than sunrise. It’s possible there may be a few spotty showers with the passage of the front, but overall you’re probably not going to see any rain. By the morning hours of Thanksgiving we’ll see northerly winds at about 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph or higher and drier air blows into the area. After the front’s passage, daytime temperatures will top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the area. Skies will be mostly cloudy on the Thanksgiving holiday, with some possible clearing during the afternoon or evening hours.

Lows on Thursday night will generally drop into the 40s in Houston, but some far inland areas, including College Station and northern parts of Montgomery County, should get into the 30s. Note that with wind gusts of 20 mph possibly on Friday morning, it will feel colder than this outside, so that is something to keep in mind if you’re going to be out shopping late Thursday night, or early Friday.

Friday

This will be a chilly day, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees, despite mostly sunny skies. Winds will be from the north at 10 to 15 mph. Expect another chilly night, with lows dropping into the 30s for far inland areas, and 40s in metro Houston. The coast will be a bit warmer.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be the first winter-like weekend of the season, with highs generally in the low- to mid-60s, mostly sunny days, and nights in the 40s. Winds will be fairly light.

Next week

Next week will see a gradual warmup, with highs in the upper 60s to 70s, and overnight temperatures rebounding to about 60 degrees by the middle of the week. Cloud cover will increase, and we’ll start to see daily rain chances by Monday or especially Tuesday from a coastal low pressure system. This does not look to be potent rainmaker, but it may be persistent in that we see ongoing periods of light to moderate rain for a few days.

The game

Many of you will undoubtedly be interested in the outcome of a certain football game on Saturday night, in College Station, Texas. For late November, the weather will be fine. Expect gametime temperatures for the visiting Texas Longhorns and home Texas A&M Aggies to be in the 50s, with partly cloudy skies. By the end of the game the mercury may drop into the upper 40s. The good news is that there will be no wind to affect the outcome of the game. It’s fun to have the rivalry back!

In brief: A Monday night front brought a cool-down to the area, but it will be briefly lived. A second front on Thanksgiving morning will provide a more long-lasting chill, with sweater weather on the holiday. After a cool weekend, rain returns to the forecast later next week.

Tuesday

A front arrived on Monday night to bring us out of record temperature territory back down to normal levels for this time of year. Lows this morning have dropped to about 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. This will be one of those blink-and-you-miss-it fronts, with the onshore flow returning by this evening. Essentially, that means the dry air will last about 24 hours.

Today should be spectacular, however. Expect highs of around 70 degrees, low humidity, and mostly sunny skies. Winds, generally, will be light. We’ll see an increase in clouds tonight, and lows will probably only drop to about 60 degrees, or a touch lower, as dewpoints recover.

Wednesday

This will be a partly sunny, and much warmer day. Look for high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. (The record high for Wednesday is 84 degrees, and we’re going to come very close, if not break it). Winds will pick up from the south, perhaps gusting up to 25 mph as a warmer, more humid flow moves in during the daytime. Lows on Wednesday night will be slow to fall, reaching only the mid- to upper-60s ahead of a cold front.

Thanksgiving

A stronger, more long-lasting front will arrive on Thursday morning, perhaps pushing into Houston by around sunrise and off the coast shortly thereafter (there is still a bit of uncertainty regarding the timing). A few, very isolated showers are possible, but I wouldn’t expect any rain as the front pushes in. What we will see are northern winds, gusting to 20 to 25 mph.

Skies look to be mostly cloudy during the daytime, with temperatures generally in the low- to mid-60s. So after a long and abnormally hot November, Thanksgiving will indeed feel seasonal. You might even wear a sweater. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the 40s, with some decently gusty winds holding on, so bear that in mind if you’re doing some early morning shopping on Friday.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Generally this cooler and drier air will hold on through the weekend. Expect highs generally in the 60s, and lows in the 40s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Rain chances will be about 10 percent each day, so not zero, but definitely not likely. This will be the first winter-like weekend of the season.

Next week

Although the details are blurry, the general contours of our weather for next week are coming into better focus. We’ll see some low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico that could support the development of daily rain chances for much of the week, with a total of perhaps 1 to 3 inches over several days. Skies will be mostly cloudy with daily highs perhaps in the 60s, and lows in the 50s. We’ll see.

Fundraiser

We have just a few more days left in our annual fundraiser—your one opportunity each year to support the work we do, and buy merchandise to show your support of the site. Thank you to all who have given so far! More information can be found here.

In brief: High temperatures on Monday and Wednesday will flirt with record highs before a front on Thanksgiving—likely during the morning hours—surges into Houston. This will bring us seasonal weather for the holiday, and likely keep us in a cool pattern well into December.

Late November heat

Sunday’s high temperature officially reached 83 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, 1 degree below the all-time record of 84 degrees set back in 1910. Today should be slightly warmer across the metro area, with highs generally in the mid- to upper-80s. So the all-time record for today, 86 degrees (set in 1967) is definitely in play.

We could have one more chance to set a record high on Wednesday, when the daily record high is 84 degrees (set in 1989). The normal high temperature for this time of year, in case you were wondering, is 70 degrees. This November has a chance to be the warmest November on record, but a cold snap later this week could pull us back from the abyss. We’ll see.

Fundraiser

This is the final week of our 2024 fundraiser. If you appreciate the work we do, the sanity in the storm, this is your chance to support our site by donating or buying merchandise right here. Those who donate are ensuring that our work will be freely available for all. Thank you to everyone who has supported us so far during this annual campaign!

Monday

With a persistent onshore flow today, we’ll see warm and humid conditions, with highs in the mid-80s for much of the area, and a few locations likely reaching the upper 80s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with a southerly wind at about 10 mph. As noted above, this is abnormally warm for this time of year, but a front is coming to bring some short-lived relief. I cannot entirely rule out a very isolated shower with the front this evening, but for the most part we’ll just see drier air moving into the region by around sunset, and during the evening and overnight hours. Low temperatures will fall into the 50s tonight.

Tuesday

Our weather will be seasonal on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies, drier air, and highs of around 70 degrees. Winds will be from the north, and perhaps a bit gusty. As winds turn easterly and then southeasterly overnight, lows will fall to around 60 degrees as humidity starts to return.

Wednesday

I’m going to make a bold prediction, and if I’m wrong I’m sure there will be plenty of people to point it out. However, I think Wednesday will be our last 80-degree day of the year. And it’s going to be a warm one, with highs in the mid-80s (and as noted above, with a record high in play). Mostly sunny skies will aid in the warming, and it will be plenty humid as well. Lows will drop into the 60s.

Thanksgiving

We can all give thanks that a stronger front will arrive in Houston on Thursday. The timing is still a little bit up in the air, but most of our modeling guidance suggests the front should reach Houston by around sunrise or shortly after. There is unlikely to be any rainfall with the front, but it will usher some stronger northerly winds into the area. We’ll likely see northerly gusts up to 20 or 25 mph. Skies start out mostly cloudy in the morning, but I expect some clearing during the daytime. Expect highs in the upper 60s for most locations, with overnight lows dropping into the 40s in Houston, with upper 30s possible for some outlying areas.

Friday

Friday, or for some dedicated shoppers Black Friday, will be clear and cool. Expect a breezy and chilly morning. Skies will be mostly sunny, likely with highs in the low 60s. Temperatures on Friday night should fall to around 50 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions in outlying areas.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

We’ll start to see a bit of a warming trend on Saturday, with highs probably in the upper 60s. However a reinforcing front (with a very slight chance of rain) is likely to keep a lid on temperatures. Highs on Sunday should be in the low 60s or thereabouts. Nights stay chilly.

Most of next week will remain on the cooler side, with highs in the 60s, and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Beginning Sunday night or Monday we’ll also see an increased chance of rain and cloudier skies. Alas it will be December by then, so I won’t be able to describe it as a cold November rain …