Houston’s first nighttime temperature below 50 degrees this winter occurred back on October 19, about five months ago. With Houston now getting deeper into Spring—and June just 72 days away—it is natural to wonder whether this most recent cold spell was the region’s last of the winter.

The short answer, I would say, is no. While we are definitely entering a pattern where warmer rather than colder weather is the norm, we should still see some decently cold weather during the next six weeks. In fact, I think there’s a modest chance that parts of the Houston metro area see sub-50 degree temperatures about eight to 10 days from now.

Tuesday

But not today. The onshore flow is fully in control of our weather this morning, and we’re going to see a gradual rise in humidity until a front on Friday. High temperatures today will be on the order of the low 70s, with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be out of the south, gusting to 25 mph at times. And low temperatures tonight will not drop far, perhaps only into the upper 60s. A few areas may see some sprinkles later today as a weak disturbance moves through.

Wednesday

Warmer still, with a high temperature of around 80 degrees and continued partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will again be gusty of out the south.

Thursday

This probably will be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Nights will continue to humid and mild.

Friday

I expect fairly widespread showers on Friday, but accumulations look fairly slight, on the order of one-quarter to one-half an inch of rain for most. At this point I can’t entirely rule out some stronger thunderstorms with the front, but as of now I don’t think there will be too many fireworks with its passage. These showers should end by the afternoon, or early evening hours as a moderate front moves in with some drier air. Highs on Friday will be about 80 degrees ahead of the front, dropping into the 50s overnight.

Saturday

This will be a fine springtime day with sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 80s. The reason we’re going to get so warm right after the frontal passage is that we’re going to see some fairly dry air moving in for a brief period on Saturday. But these winds will turn southerly again pretty quickly on Saturday afternoon or so, and therefore I expect lows on Saturday night to only drop to around 60 degrees.

Sunday

Highs on Sunday will again be in the low 80s, but with more humidity and probably more clouds.

Next week

Monday looks warm as well before another decent front moves in to bring us some days in the 70s, probably. Rain chances look fairly low, and temperatures fairly moderate, for much of next week.

Good morning! Lows bottomed out in the upper-30s and low-40s across much of Houston this morning, and I think this probably will be our coldest weather until October, or possibly even November in the region. Significantly warmer conditions are on the way after today, with a return to highs in the low 80s by Wednesday or so.

The good news is that the passage of a strong front on Friday, with a combination of winds and rainfall, really helped to knock down tree pollen and mold spore allergies over the weekend. We have definitely come through the worst of the spring time allergy season for oak trees and its messy, yellowish pollen.

Monday

Today will be our final chilly day, with highs likely only topping out around 60 degrees as a cold air mass remains in place and skies are mostly cloudy. However, change is on the way as winds will shift to come from north-northeast to the southeast. This shift will moderate lows on Monday night, likely keeping most of the region in the low- to mid-50s.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be warmer, with highs generally in the low- to mid-70s, and more partly to mostly cloudy skies. Southerly winds will start to become more pronounced, picking up to 15 or 20 mph. Low temperatures will only briefly drop below 70 degrees in the metro area.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of warm days, with highs ranging from 80 to 85 degrees, and partly to mostly cloudy skies. The southerly flow will be really noticeable, with wind gusts up to 25 or even 30 mph due to a fairly steep pressure gradient. Overnight lows in Houston will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

The region’s next front will arrive on Friday, and it should bring a healthy chance of rain showers into the region starting during the early morning hours. Accumulations look to be about one-half inch of rain north of Interstate 10, with lesser amounts to the south, but I would not bank on those amounts just yet. The front is not particularly strong, so high temperatures on Friday will still reach about 80 degrees, with lows perhaps dropping into the upper 50s on Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend looks great, with mostly sunny skies and highs of around 80 degrees on Saturday. On Sunday, as the onshore flow resumes, we may see a few scattered showers, although I don’t feel overly confident in the details just yet. Most of next week should see highs in the 70s, with nothing too extreme on the way. Enjoy your springtime weather, Houston!

Happy St. Patrick’s Day to those who celebrate. Just a little different out there this morning! Temperatures versus 24 hours are much colder.

We are running 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, and that disparity will probably worsen through the day as temperatures stagnate. It feels more like a Valentine’s Day than a St. Patrick’s Day.

Today

Last night’s line of storms is now long gone, but we are left with showers that will actually tick up in intensity some in the Houston area over the next hour or two.

Look for rain or showers to continue through probably midday across much of the area, and even then it will only gradually shut off. Temperatures will go almost nowhere today, stuck in the 40s, maybe up to low-50s in a few spots later this afternoon. The wind will continue howling at times as well through the day.

Tonight

Cody Johnson takes the stage tonight at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, and you’ll want to dress warmly! Temperatures will be near 50 degrees on your way in and in the upper 40s on your way out with a continued breeze. Rain should be done with, but it will still be a bit damp.

Low temperatures tonight will bottom out generally in the 40s area-wide. Some light rain showers are possible toward morning.

Saturday & Sunday

Look for another cloud-dominant day tomorrow. Temperatures will probably again struggle into the mid-50s at best. A few passing showers will be around, especially south of Houston. It’s entirely possible that a few areas see some sleet mix in with the rain, though I’m not sure it will be precipitating hard enough for that to happen. For those of you planning outdoor activities, there’s probably a better chance than not that you’ll be mainly dry this weekend, but it will remain breezy and chilly and mostly cloudy.

Morning lows will be chilly on Sunday. We expect 30s and 40s for minimums. A freeze is not a concern in the Houston area, but it’ll certainly feel cold. Look for another day of mostly cloudy skies and low-end shower chances on Sunday, with highs perhaps a little better into the mid or even upper-50s. Either way, be ready for a chilly finale to the Rodeo!

A quick note: If your travels are to or from Big Bend or Guadalupe Mountains National Park this weekend, there is a good chance of some snow out that way. Higher elevations of West Texas may see an inch or two of snowfall from this moisture and cold.

More a curiosity than a travel woe, but certainly impressive for mid-March!

Monday and Tuesday

Look for another day of mid or upper-50s after morning lows in the 30s and 40s on Monday. Monday morning may be the coldest of this stretch with widespread mid to upper-30s. Tuesday will see 40s to low-50s in the morning and upper-60s in the afternoon. Both days will be partly sunny with a low-end chance of showers.

Later next week

We will certainly warm up a lot on Wednesday and Thursday. Look for mid to upper-70s on Wednesday and 80s on Thursday. Both days should see at least some sunshine.

Beyond that, we may see another cold front around next Friday or Saturday to offer some comfortable weather next weekend and early on the week of the 27th. More on that next week.

Yesterday was a big swing and a miss for many. Ultimately it ended up being a lovely late day, but the morning smoke that took a bit longer to disperse than hoped really added a sour taste to yesterday’s weather. The good news is that the air quality this morning is great. No issues at all in the area. We do have some weather coming later today in parts of the area, however. And given the wind forecast, you may want to bring in any loose objects that have ended up outdoors during spring break week.

This morning

For most of us, the early morning should be fine. Some showers have begun breaking out north and west of College Station, and they will move east over the next couple hours though. An isolated heavier downpour is possible. Outside of that, watch for the wind to begin gradually picking up as well. In fact, wind may be the most notable story today for everyone, with frequent 25 to 35 mph gusts.

Winds will remain gusty into the afternoon and tonight.

This afternoon

Once that little wave of showers moves through, we’ll begin to setup the chances for some strong to severe storms. The primary risk today will be north of I-10, possibly well north of there, where capping is the weakest. Recall, capping usually means that the atmosphere is able to suppress the growth of thunderstorms a bit. South of I-10, capping is likely to remain fairly strong deep into the afternoon, limiting severe risk. Ultimately, it may be areas along and north of Highway 105 that have the best chance for some severe thunderstorms later today.

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk (level 2/5) for most of the Houston area and a marginal risk (1/5) along the coast. If any storms can develop, strong winds, hail, or an isolated tornado will be possible. Again, in the immediate Houston area, this seems unlikely, but the chance is enough to make sure you pay attention today. You’ll certainly want to watch north of The Woodlands, where the risk increases.

Outside any severe weather, there will continue to be a few showers or pockets of light rain. Warm temperatures though, with highs pushing 80 south and west of Houston. And yes, continued windy.

Tonight

Things may actually break this evening for a time. Honestly, if you’re headed to the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo for Chris Stapleton tonight, you may be fine. Again, keep tabs on the situation and heed any weather alerts from Rodeo officials in the unlikely event they materialize. Look for 70s on your way in — and out.

The next phase of weather will be the cold front itself. The good news is that the timing is likely to occur while most of the area is asleep. That may also be bad news if you have a pet or child that wakes up during thunderstorms. You’ve been warned.

The front itself will arrive around midnight in the Brazos Valley, 1-3 AM in the northwest Houston/Montgomery County area, 2-4 AM in Houston and the immediate southeast, and 3-5 AM at the coast. With it? A line of showers and gusty thunderstorms seems likely. Locally heavy rain will also be possible. The real nasty weather should only last 30-45 minutes or less, but the rain showers will linger well into Friday morning. While severe weather is not necessarily expected with this squall line, there is the chance for a couple warnings due to strong wind gusts. Outside of storms even, strong, non-severe wind gusts will persist tonight.

Friday

The front will be offshore Friday morning, and it’s going to feel a heck of a lot different than Thursday. Temperatures will plunge behind the front into the upper-40s or low-50s and only rise a little bit through the day Friday. Wind gusts will probably peak on Friday morning and then slowly drop off Friday afternoon and evening. But it will feel quite raw.

In terms of weather, rain is likely to continue at varying intensity (light to moderate) through the morning hours, possibly diminishing from west to east by early afternoon. Overall, tomorrow looks like an indoors type day if you have any spring break plans.

Saturday through Monday

The weather looks to be some version of the same thing on both weekend days and Monday. Both Saturday and Sunday look to be mostly cloudy, cool, and breezy. Expect lows in the 40s, highs in the 50s, and at least a slight chance of some pockets of light rain as some weak disturbances pass through in the upper atmosphere. I mentioned ice pellets as a possibility yesterday, and while unlikely, I will not be shocked if someone reports brief, light sleet on Saturday or Sunday, especially west of Houston.

Monday’s forecast is a little trickier as models are shifting around on potential impacts from one more disturbance passing by. We’ll call it pretty similar to Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 50s and morning lows in the 40s, but we’ll have more on that tomorrow.

Tuesday and beyond

The specific weather forecast gets a little more uncertain beyond Monday. What we do know: Temperatures will warm up. But whether that comes with sunshine or more clouds and rain chances is TBD. Look for highs in the 60s on Tuesday, well into the 70s on Wednesday, and perhaps 80s again by Thursday.