Houston, and much of the southern United States, now face a prolonged warm spell that will likely last for nearly all of the rest of February. We are going to see highs of around 80 degrees for the next week, with fairly sticky dewpoints in the 60s. The other notable thing is that, after a fairly wet winter so far, rain chances will be near zero for the same period.

This pattern may finally start to break by early next week. I’m not ready to say winter is over, but I would say it’s more likely than not that we’re done with nights in the 30s for this winter. We’ll still have a few cold nights in the next couple of months, certainly, but this week will bring us into springtime in Houston.

Presidents Day

As much warmer air moves over cooler waters, we’re seeing the formation of sea fog this morning for areas closer to the coast. After the fog dissipates today we’ll be left with partly to mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures of around 80 degrees. A very few, scattered showers will be possible south of Interstate 10 this afternoon, where atmospheric moisture levels are highest. But any precipitation that makes it to the ground will be light. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with the development of sea fog likely once again.

Tuesday

Expect another day like Monday, with highs in the low 80s. The only real difference will come in the form of stronger winds from the southwest, perhaps gusting to around 20 mph, and a bit higher overnight. Lows will only drop to around 70 degrees. Needless to say this is rather warm for late February.

Wednesday

In response to an upper-level system, winds on Wednesday will be stronger still out of the south, perhaps gusting to 35 or even 40 mph. These warm winds, southerly flow, and partially clearing skies will amp up temperatures, pushing highs into the mid- to possibly upper-80s in the metro area. I would not entirely rule out a few inland areas pushing 90 degrees, but I don’t think most of the metro area will reach that mark.

Thursday and Friday

A weak front will move into the Houston area and stall toward the end of the week, but at this point I don’t think it will have too much effect on our sensible weather. Put another way, we can probably expect mostly cloudy skies, highs in the low 80s, and warm nights. Rain chances remain low, about 10 percent.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same this weekend, with warm and humid air, highs of around 80 degrees, and cloudy skies. The potential for fog will continue to be present in the forecast. Rain chances will be on the order of 10 percent each day.

Next week

As always the details start to get hazy as we approach the early part of next week, but it does look as though some sort of front will trundle into Houston by around next Monday. I’m not seeing much of a signal for rainfall with this front, but it’s certainly possible. This should bring us a few days of sunnier weather, with highs in the 70s and lows, perhaps, in the 50s. By then most of us should be ready for some drier air.

Dazed and Confused

If you’re looking for something fun to do on Saturday evening, come join me at the Museum of Fine Arts to watch Dazed and Confused. I’ll speak for a few minutes before the film, and then we’ll sit down to watch the glorious movie in its original 35mm film format, and take in that spectacular 70s soundtrack in a theater. I can’t wait!

Yesterday was a chilly, breezy day, and we will probably have some more of that today before our weather changes pretty drastically. This will be our last real shot of winter-type weather for some time, as we see at least a temporary shift into spring next week.

Today

Sunshine should dominate today, with at least a few high clouds floating by through the day. Otherwise, look for a continued 10 to 15 mph breeze with gusts to 25 or 30 at times. Winds over the water will be slightly stronger. After a chilly start this morning, look for us to recover into the low-50s this afternoon.

Weekend

Both weekend days look fine, with a chilly Saturday transitioning to a much milder Sunday. For tomorrow, we will have more sun and high clouds but noticeably less wind than yesterday or today. It will be quite a chilly start to the day, but we’ll gradually creep into the mid-50s or so during the afternoon.

Sunday looks milder with morning lows about 5 to 10 degrees warmer (mostly 40s), and a surge of onshore flow leading to highs near 70 or better. Expect continued sun mixed with occasional high clouds.

Monday and Tuesday

We will really notice the return of humidity on these days as dewpoints shoot up into the 60s on steady onshore winds. High temperatures? Warm. Look for 80 or better both days, with morning lows in the 60s.

The weather should remain at least partly sunny on both days. There could be a stray shower or some fog on the coast, but winds of 10 to 15 mph or so will help keep the fog from sticking too long I think.

Wednesday through Friday

The forecast remains rather elusive for the back half of next week. The primary problem is that a cold front is likely to stall out and/or dissipate near Houston. If that gets to the coast, we’ll turn notably cooler for a day or so. If that fails to get into the metro area, we’ll continue to see 60s for lows and 70s or 80s for highs. The European model has it slam on the brakes just before getting to Houston’s northwest suburbs. The GFS model pushes it 50 to 100 miles offshore. That’s a *big* difference in potential outcomes.

That also will impact the weather we see, with a cooler outcome leading to clouds and shower chances but a warmer outcome likely leading to AM fog and PM sun, with limited rain chances. Take your pick. Right now, I believe the smart money is on a warmer outcome, but we’ll have to wait and see on that.

As Eric noted yesterday, the remainder of February will probably finish on a mild note. It will probably also finish somewhat drier than normal. We’re still in a La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean, so this shouldn’t come as a huge shock, as that is typical for our late winter and spring weather. For those tracking such things, it would seem that the end is near for La Niña by this summer. While what it means for Houston is very much TBD, in general, that might promote better rain chances this summer, with hopefully fewer hurricanes to watch than is typical. We shall see!

After an outbreak of warmer and humid weather Houston will descend back into winter for a few days as a cold front barrels into Houston this morning. As expected, the front has produced only a thin, broken line of showers as it swept through. Any lingering rain will soon end as much drier air moves in. We’ll be cold through Saturday night before a warm-up on Sunday.

Thursday

The story of today will be winds, especially for coastal counties including Galveston, where northerly winds will blow at about 20 mph, with sustained gusts up to 35 or possibly even 40 mph near the water. Temperatures start at 70 degrees, and will be in the low 50s by this afternoon, with cloudy skies. Lows tonight will drop into the mid- to-upper 30s in Houston, with a light freeze possible for far, outlying areas

Friday

Expect a mostly sunny day, with highs only in the low 50s. Winds will continue to blow out of the north, with gusts possible up to 25 or even 30 mph. These winds will finally slacken overnight Friday, with temperatures again dropping into the mid- to upper-30s for the metro area.

Saturday

After a cold start, Saturday will see highs in the mid-50s with a mix of sunshine and clouds. As winds start to turn more easterly and then southeasterly, nighttime temperatures will be a tad warmer, in the mid-40s in Houston, and colder for outlying areas.

Sunday

As the onshore flow ramps back up, we’ll see a warmer day with some clouds and a bit of sunshine. Expect highs in the low 70s, probably. Sunday night’s lows will struggle to fall below 60 degrees.

Presidents Day

We’re going back to 80 degrees, most likely, on Monday. Skies will probably be partly to mostly cloudy, but the good news for kids staying home from school is that rain chances still look low, to non-existent.

Next week

I still don’t have great details about what happens next week, but I do expect warmer weather to last for awhile. We’ll be warm through the mid-week, with perhaps a slight chance of showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. After that it is possible that a fairly weak front will make it through, but it would probably only push daytime highs down into the low 70s. If you’re into colder air enjoy the next three days as that may be it for awhile.

Here’s the short answer up front: Probably. Barring some kind of an unexpected, freakishly cold front coming through in the next few weeks, we’re done.

Now, for a longer answer. Crazier things have happened. Houston’s latest ever recorded freeze came on April 10, 1973. However, the odds are against this. For areas south of Interstate 10, we are already past the “average” date of the region’s last freeze, and we’re fast approaching that date for areas along and north of Interstate 10. For areas further inland, such as Conroe, the typical date of the last freeze comes in late February.

After a front moves through early tomorrow, we are going to see a couple of days of colder weather. Some far inland areas, including Conroe, have a chance of seeing a light freeze on Friday and Saturday mornings. But after that? We look to be near or above normal, in terms of temperatures, for the rest of February. So I would be surprised if it froze again. For areas along and south of Interstate 10, I’d put the chance of another freeze this season at 10 percent or less. For the northern half of the metro area, it is probably about 25 percent, or less.

Wednesday

Patchy to dense fog is present this morning as winds are light, and dewpoints and temperatures nearly match in the upper 60s. As temperatures warm this morning, the fog will dissipate, and leave us with cloudy skies. A very few, scattered showers will be possible later this morning and during the afternoon hours, with highs reaching about 80 degrees. Tonight will be sticky warm until the front comes through.

Thursday

Speaking of said front, a broken line of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will herald its arrival. They’ll pass quickly. Generally, we can expect the front to reach western portions of the region, such as Katy, around 3 to 5 am on Thursday, downtown from 5 to 7 am, and the coast from 7 to 9 am. Showers will end quickly with the front’s passage, but clouds will remain. Temperatures will drop into the lower 60s in the morning, and perhaps the 50s during the afternoon, as brisk northerly winds gust to 30 mph or so and bring in colder, drier air. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the upper 30s for much of Houston.

Friday

A sunny, and chilly day, with highs in the mid-50s. Winds will still be around, but backing off into the 10 to 15 mph range, with higher gusts. Lows Friday night will again drop into the upper 30s, with a light freeze possible for far inland areas.

Saturday

One more cool day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50s. As winds start to turn more southerly, temperatures will be warmer, in the 40s, overnight.

Sunday

Expect mostly sunny, and fine weather with highs around 70 degrees or a tick above.

Next week

Washington’s Birthday should see warmer conditions, with partly sunny skies and highs near 80 degrees. Some sort of front is going to try and make it through by mid-week, but I’m not 100 percent confident that will happen. A smattering of rain chances pop up around the same time, but they’re not particularly impressive looking.