Good morning. The story of the day, the story of the week, and the story for the second half of June is going to be our region’s dangerous heat. The National Weather Service has expanded the “heat advisory” to cover the entire Southeast Texas region, including all of the Houston metro area. With temperatures around 100 degrees, and the heat index pushing 110 degrees due to high humidity, it is strongly advisable to limit activities outdoors during the middle of the day.

It’s Houston. It’s humid. It’s Houmidity. Perhaps that’s not a slogan the Greater Houston Convention and Visitors Bureau is going to start using, but it does have the benefit of being accurate.

If you’re looking for something a little bit different this morning, over at The Eyewall, Matt authored a feature report about hurricane activity and the Gulf of Mexico. We’ve seen a spate of major storms in the last six years, particularly with rapidly intensifying and extremely damaging hurricanes. Matt dives into the latest research and speaks with hurricane scientists about whether this is really a trend, and what it means for coastal residents.

Thursday

What is there to say? High pressure is dominating our weather, and this will mean mostly sunny skies, highs near 100 degrees, and southerly winds varying from 5 mph to 15 mph. Nighttime temperatures will offer little reprieve, with lows dropping only to around 80 humid degrees. If you live near the coast, daytime highs will be slightly lower, but the humidity slightly higher. Pick your poison, H-town.

Friday

More of the same.

Saturday and Sunday

The heat peaks this weekend, with much of the area hitting 100 degrees. Expect lots of sunshine. Rain chances remain below 10 percent, daily. Find some water to cool down in if you’re going to be outside.

Next week

The first half of next week should bring still more of the same, although there is some suggestion in the models that the ridge will weaken or flatten later next week, and begin to offer some relief. We’re not talking much here, but highs could start to fall back into the mid- to upper-90s. Rain chances by Friday or so may start to tick back up into the 20 to 40 percent range. But that’s eight days out, and I don’t have confidence in the ridge of high pressure breaking down until the models start to definitively show it. In other words, abandon all hope, ye who enter here.

Just what is happening around here? I take off a few days for a family reunion in a cooler climate, and return to sultry, face-melting summer heat and a forecast that includes 100-degree temperatures. I absolutely blame Matt for this and let me tell you, I’ll be writing a stern letter to the managing editor.

Alas, it’s only going to get hotter. And there remains no real confidence in when an end-date might be in sight. It high pressure domes for as far as the eye can see.

Wednesday

Temperatures remained confined to the mid-90s on Monday and Tuesday in most of Houston, but today we’re going to begin taking another step up. The central and western parts of the metro area will see highs in the mid- to upper-90s, and combined with the high humidity, this will bring dangerous heat to the area. The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for the time period from 1 pm to 7 pm CT today for all but the eastern part of our region. Winds will generally be light, at 5 to 10 mph, with slightly higher gusts. Lows tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees.

Thursday

Temperatures will pretty much be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees for the entire area, with the exception of the immediate coast. And if you’ve lived in Houston for more than 10 minutes, you probably don’t need to ask about the humidity.

Friday through Tuesday

We’re highly confident that these will be sunny and hot days, with most of the area reaching triple digits. This extreme heat will be driven by a high pressure system that will lead to sinking air, clear skies, and ideal conditions for daytime heating. Please take precautions with outdoor activities during the afternoon and early evening hours. Rain chances look to be 10 percent, or lower, each day.

Next Wednesday and beyond

The truth is, there is no concrete sign that high pressure will abate during the second half of next week, so the most likely forecast is one of continued high heat and very low rain chances. Maybe some slight relief will arrive as we get toward next weekend. We’ll see.

On Monday, Houston topped off around 95°, after a 94° on Sunday and 93° on Saturday. So far at least, our temperatures seem to be underachieving a bit. That may be a bit of cloud cover or the relatively wet weather we had through late spring acting against heat. Regardless, it will remain plenty hot through the week.

Today

Today’s upper air temperatures are expected to be about 1 to 2°C warmer than they were yesterday, which should translate to a bump of a couple degrees to our high temperatures. Look for mid to perhaps some upper-90s in most inland spots, slightly cooler at the coast. Storms are expected to remain well north of the area today, but some clouds from those storms could filter into some of the region.

Peak heat index values (or feels like temperatures, if you prefer) will be in the 103 to 107° range in Houston, just shy of heat index criteria in most of the area. But to the west, they are expected to flirt with 108°+, requiring a heat advisory. This could be expanded later today and certainly will be as the week goes on.

Wednesday

Morning lows will be in the upper-70s tomorrow. We tack on another 1-2 degrees on Wednesday in the upper atmosphere, so look for mostly upper-90s for highs here. As seems to be the case, some passing storms well off to our north may send some “debris” clouds this way which may keep the risk skewed slightly lower for high temps. We’ll see.

Heat index values will nudge up some tomorrow, with peak readings perhaps more into the 105 to 110° range, which could yield wider coverage of the heat advisory.

Thursday through Sunday

No changes to the forecast here with minimal rain chances (model probabilities are under 15 percent all days) and a mix of sun and clouds each day. High temperatures will likely be in the upper-90s most days with at least a chance at 100+ officially. But admittedly, after yesterday I am not as convinced we do that. But, whether it’s 100+ or not, we will likely see heat index values average in the 105 to 110° range on all days, meaning we will potentially put together a string of heat advisory days, so make sure you’re keeping cool and drinking plenty of water.

We still cannot confidently answer when this heat will start to relax. Maybe later next week.

Tropics

We continue to update the tropics daily over at The Eyewall, and we have little to discuss right now! Good news for sure, and with this dry, hot air mass dominating Texas and the western Gulf, we’re very much in the clear for the next 7 to 10 days. Look for a larger feature at The Eyewall tomorrow that goes in depth on what has been happening in the Gulf of Mexico in recent years.

After a couple rounds of some gnarly storms on Thursday and Saturday, the region should be in for a fairly durable break over the next several days. However, the cost will be the strongest heat since last summer. It makes for a fairly simple weather forecast, but there are at least a couple things to note. Since every day looks to be about the same, we’ll discuss things a little differently today.

How hot are we talking?

Forecast highs today through the weekend look to be in the upper-90s to low-100s each and every day. There is probably a slightly higher chance of 100+ as we get closer to the weekend as the upper level ridge of high pressure that’s causing this heat flexes a bit more.

Models indicate about a 70 percent chance of hitting 100° during the peak of the heat (expected Friday through Sunday), with about a 35 percent chance of hitting 103° and a 15 percent chance of 105° in Houston. We get hot in summer here in Houston, but this is sort of the next level of heat. Morning lows will be in the 70s to near 80 each day.

How bad will the humidity be?

The humidity will be about as bad as you typically see in Houston in summer. There’s nothing about this air mass that’s overly impressive in terms of humidity right now. Dewpoints will be running near to maybe just a little above average. So, you’ll feel the humidity for sure, but that’s typical for our area. However, with abnormally hot weather to go with that humidity, it sets us up for escalating heat this week.

As of right now, the National Weather Service does not intend to issue heat advisories for the Houston area today or tomorrow, but that will probably change later this week when we start testing that criteria (heat index, or “feels like” values of 108+ or air temperatures of 103+) a little more. Excessive heat warning criteria features heat index values of 113° or higher or air temperatures of 105° and up.

Initially, expect afternoon heat index values of 103 to 107°, worst in and south and east of Houston, escalating to near 110° or hotter by late week. Whatever criteria we do or do not hit, it will be important to take it easier than normal in the afternoon heat. The NWS Houston office has a handy web page with graphics and information on heat safety. Look before you lock, drink water, wear sunscreen, and try to stay cool.

Will anything make this more tolerable?

If you’ve been paying close attention since May, you may have noticed a real lack of wind around these parts. We had some pretty windy months earlier in spring and also last spring. But since at least 2010, no May 1st through June 10th period has had a lower average wind speed in Houston. Relative to recent years, it’s been dead calm. That is finally changing this week.

We expect wind this week to average about 10 to 15 mph or so, with occasional daytime gusts of 20 mph. While that won’t make it feel nice with temperatures this hot, it will take a bit of the edge off. It’s a bit counter-intuitive, as this sort of heat is typically associated with what we derisively call a “death ridge,” a hot, dry, calm atmosphere. But we’ll be downstream of it at least initially, so we benefit with some wind.

How about rain chances?

Those will be mostly absent. I would say that if you live north of Houston, up toward, say Huntsville or Madisonville, you have at least a chance at getting grazed by some storms that will pass across North Texas this evening, Tuesday morning, and Wednesday morning. Model guidance from the National Blend of Models (NBM) shows about a daily peak of 10 to 15 percent chances of measurable rain over the next 7 to 10 days for Houston, and maybe 15 to 20 percent up north of Huntsville and Walker County. Chances look absolutely paltry south of I-10 right now. So, no, it does not appear we will see much, if any rain over the next week.

Do we need to worry about power outages?

At this time, ERCOT says that there may be calls for conservation at some point, but they do not anticipate dealing with outages this week. I have seen that thought echoed by others “in the know” on social media that do not work for ERCOT or Texas. It’s always a good idea to conserve where you can this time of year, but the grid should be able to manage the heat for now.

When will this end?

I wish we could answer that with confidence.

If you look at the weather pattern about 20,000 feet up over the next 10 days (looped above), you can see that the ridge flexes this weekend (indicated by a horseshoe-like curvature to the black lines over Texas) into early next week. We call this a “persistence forecast,” where every day is basically mostly like the previous day. What that means is we’ll likely be dealing with high temperatures of 97 to 103 degrees over the next 10 days. I will caution that there’s always a chance we can’t see a disturbance or something that can throw a wrench into a persistence forecast like this. But right now, I certainly don’t see what that catalyst would be. After midweek next week, it does appear that the ridge may retreat to the west some, which could allow for a bump in rain chances and cooler weather.

Stay cool, and we’ll be back with an update on Tuesday morning!