Good morning. Today’s pollen update: Uggghhhh.

Houston is off to one of its warmest starts to a year since records began here back in the late 1800s. In terms of 80 degree days, if you think we’ve had a few more than usual, you’d be correct. We average four of them through March 10th. We’ve already had 17, and today has at least a chance to make it 18, which would be tied for the second most since 1888. 1911 had 22 80 degree days at this point, and 2000 also had 18 of them. Either way, we’re off to the races this year.

We will probably pause things a bit after next week.

We should see one front on Sunday or Monday that knocks us back temporarily, followed up with a second front on Friday or so next week that will have a bit more “oomph” to it, allowing for this cooler weather beyond St. Patrick’s Day. Again, the fast, early start to spring this year doesn’t necessarily mean much of anything heading into April, May, or summer.

Today

The challenge today? Temperatures. With a cool front nudging into the Houston area today, we can expect a bit of a difference from north to south. If you’re driving from Conroe to NASA later today, you may experience a season and a half’s worth of weather.

A passing shower or downpour will be possible this morning, with a mixed but probably dry afternoon; decreasing clouds overall. Temperatures will likely range from near 80 degrees in Houston and south of I-10 to the 70s on the north side of Houston to the 60s or near 70 degrees farther north of Montgomery County and up toward College Station.

Saturday

Let’s call tomorrow a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures back in the low to mid-80s in most of the area with the exception of the very far north and immediate coast. Morning lows should range from the upper-50s well north and west of Greater Houston to the upper 60s at the coast. Outdoor plans look good to go, but watch for some wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph at times.

Sunday

We have seen a couple changes for Sunday’s forecast today. Namely, the timing of the front, which looks about 6 hours or so faster than it did yesterday. That will have an impact on temperatures Sunday, with an earlier front perhaps taking a little of the edge off Sunday’s highs. The early morning will be in the 70s and humid. Depending on the exact timing of the front, we may cool off further after sunrise (which will be an hour later by the way…change those clocks Saturday night!) and then warm into the low-80s. If the front does arrive more slowly, we could do mid or even upper-80s. Either way, the humidity will trend lower and more comfortable through the day. We’ll continue with some gusty winds, but they’ll flip around and be out of the north instead of onshore like Saturday.

It’s always a big weekend at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, and this weekend you’ve got pretty good weather to go with it. Whether you’re seeing The Chainsmokers, Turnpike Troubadours, or La Fiera De Ojinaga you shouldn’t have too much trouble at all.

Friday evening: Mid-70s walking in, 70 or so walking out. Fair.

Saturday: Low or mid-80s walking in, mid-70s walking out. Breezy and quite humid!

Sunday: Low-80s walking in, mid to upper 60s walking out. Less humid and still a bit breezy.

Early next week

Depending on your perspective, we’ve got some decent weather to start next week. We will manage clouds and sun Monday and hopefully more sun than clouds on Tuesday. Look for highs around 70 and morning lows in the 50s, if not 40s in some spots.

Late next week

The process of a warm up will begin on Wednesday and peak on Thursday. We have a shot at another 80 degree day by then. But then on Friday it appears one of the stronger cold fronts we’ve seen in a few weeks will push through with showers and scattered thunderstorms. That should knock temperatures back into the 60s for highs next weekend, with lows in the 40s. Spring breakers, y’all get a little bit of everything!

Bye La Niña

Yesterday, NOAA officially declared the end of our multi-year La Niña event. As a refresher: La Niña is a periodic cooling of the ocean water in the Equatorial Pacific. When that water turns warmer than usual, we call that El Niño and dress up as the late, great Chris Farley if you’re a student of the 90s. All of this is part of something called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Usually events last a year, maybe two. This La Niña was a triple dipper, lasting for three winters.

That has likely contributed to the long-term drought that’s been battering Texas reservoir levels, groundwater, and agriculture the last couple years. Typically, La Niñas produce drier than normal weather across the Southern Plains.

So what does this change mean for Houston going forward? Nothing yet. This was not unexpected. We’re now in what we call an “ENSO neutral” phase, which is neither La Niña or El Niño. These events are not like a switch that flips and produces instant change. What the change could mean is that we gradually see more rainfall in Texas in the months ahead. Whether that’s in April, June, next fall, who knows? Usually, hurricane seasons are somewhat muted during El Niño summers, as stronger westerly winds increase wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic basin. But while El Niño is a possibility a few months down the road, it is not a guarantee. And besides that, not all ENSO events behave similarly. For example, La Niña events usually produce above average rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest and below average rain and snow in California. This year, California is on pace to end up with one of their most exceptional wet seasons in recorded history, and the Pacific Northwest has seen average or below average precipitation. So, while we have a couple theories of what may happen, we will have to watch the evolution of the Pacific waters to get a sense of where we may actually be going in the coming months.

Houston will face four more warm days before a cold front arrives on Sunday afternoon or evening to bring a semblance of normalcy back to our weather. Until then the major question mark is just how warm conditions will get on Sunday, just ahead of the front. Some parts of the metro area have a chance to hit 90 degrees for the first time in 2023.

Thursday

Today will be similar to the rest of the days this week, which is to say we’re starting off with a humid morning and some patchy fog in coastal areas. Skies are mostly cloudy this morning, but should give way to partly sunny skies later this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the mid-80s, with light southerly winds.

For those venturing out to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, we again have no concerns for the weather outside. It will be pleasant this evening, with temperatures in the 70s. Winds may gust to about 15 mph. Low temperatures tonight will do their usual thing of late, which means they’ll drop to around 70 degrees, or slightly lower.

Friday

A (very) weak cold front is going to approach our region from the northwest on Friday, and while this will bring storms to the west and northwest of the Houston metro area, I think these showers will die out before reaching Katy or The Woodlands. This front will bring a smidgen of dry air into the area, but it won’t have too much of a sensible effect. The bottom line, I think, is that highs may top out in the low 80s instead of mid-80s, with temperatures Friday night dropping into the mid-60s. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

Saturday

Skies will gradually become partly sunny on Saturday, and this will be a warm day with highs in the mid-80s.

Sunday

This is the first day of 2023 that I would explicitly say is going to be hot. Ahead of the next front we’re going to see a warm westerly flow, and this will be noticeably with gusty westerly winds. Depending on how much sunshine our area sees, high temperatures for some inland areas may hit 90 degrees. A front arrives on Sunday afternoon or evening, and this will (finally?) usher in some cooler and drier air into the region. The front’s passage will likely be dry. Lows drop into the upper 50s.

Next week

We’ll see a few days with partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s, with lows in the 50s next week before a warm-up. Then another front probably will arrive on Thursday or Thursday night, and the good news is that, for now, this one looks like to carry a better chance of rain with it. We’re too far out to parse details, but an inch or so of rainfall sure would be welcome after our recent warm and dry period.

Good morning. Houston’s not hot, but definitely not cold, weather will continue for several more days. In the meantime, while we can expect plenty of things to fall out of the sky, rain drops are unlikely to be among them. Instead, we should see the continuation of high season for tree pollen in Houston. It is everywhere in the air at the moment, and this pattern is unlikely to change for at least the next week. As for rainfall, chances may pick up about 8 to 10 days from now.

Wednesday

If you’ve been paying attention to the weather this week, then you have a pretty good idea of what to expect today outside. Coastal areas will see fog this morning. Mostly cloudy skies to start the day may break up just slightly during the afternoon hours to provide a little sunshine. And for most of us, high temperatures will be climbing into the mid-80s to make for a warm day.

If you’re heading to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this evening, you can once again count on mild conditions. Temperatures this evening will be in the upper 70s, with moderate southerly winds. Rain chances are near zero. Overnight lows in Houston will only drop to around 70 degrees, or slightly below that the further inland one goes.

Thursday

Basically, a carbon copy of Wednesday.

Friday

By late Thursday night or early Friday, a weak—an oh so very weak—front will be approaching the Houston region from the north. It’s going to stall out somewhere, and the models are still a bit uncertain where. At this point, if I’m forced to predict, I’d say it stops north of Interstate 10. The bottom line is that, for now, I’d expect most of the area to see a warm day in the 80s, albeit with a slight 10 to 20 percent chance of rain. Lows on Friday night may drop into the low- to mid-60s for areas north of Interstate 10, due to the influence of the front, but humidity levels aren’t going down very much.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be one of the warmest weekends of 2023 to date. Saturday should see highs in the low to mid-80s with partly sunny skies, with Sunday seeing highs jump into the upper 80s due to a warmer westerly flow. On Sunday you’ll probably also notice the winds out of the west, gusting to 20 mph or higher. At some point on Sunday, perhaps during the afternoon, or perhaps later in the evening or overnight, a more substantial front will work its way into Houston. This one should go all the way to the coast and offshore. Lows on Sunday night will be cooler as a result. At this point the frontal passage looks mostly dry, in terms of rainfall.

Next week

Said front will give us a few days of cooler, and probably mostly sunny weather to start next week. We’re talking mostly about highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. After a warming trend, a second front may push into the region by Friday-ish. At this point the models are still holding onto a chance for decent rain accumulations with this front, but since we’re talking about a forecast nine days from now, I would not hold my breath. But golly, we sure could use some rain.

Houston’s warm and mostly humid—but largely rain-free—weather will continue through the weekend. As a matter of fact, highs may really pop up on Sunday ahead of front that will send us back toward more March-like weather.

Tuesday

With high pressure in place, and a warm southerly flow, today will be fairly warm with high temperatures in the mid-80s and partly sunny skies. Only coastal areas will remain in the upper 70s. Winds will be light, and generally from the south or southeast.

If you’re heading to the rodeo, you can expect mild conditions. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s before the show, falling to the low- or mid-70s with moderate southerly winds afterwards. Skies will be mostly cloudy this evening, and we can expect overnight lows to only briefly drop into the upper 60s in Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

These days will bring more of the same, which is to say highs in the mid-80s, partly sunny skies, and warm nights. Daytime winds will become a bit greater each day, perhaps gusting to 15 to 20 mph out of the south by Thursday afternoon.

Friday

A weak front will slowly drift down into Houston on Friday morning, but there is some question about how far it will progress. At this point, I think it has a decent chance of reaching the coast, in which case we will see some slightly drier air. (There looks to be little likelihood of rain with said front). In any case, Inland areas may only see highs in the 70s on Friday, with the coast being a little warmer. Low temperatures on Friday night may drop into the low 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

To be clear, the weekend forecast remains in flux. But what I think will happen is that the area may see some lingering dry-ish air from the front, but the onshore flow will be pushing back into the area. Accordingly we should see high temperatures in the ballpark of 80 degrees with a fair amount of sunshine. In terms of warmth, Sunday could be fairly hot. This is because we’re going to see a more westerly flow, and this probably will make temperatures pop up into the upper 80s.

Next week

Some sort of stronger front will arrive by early next week, likely on Monday. This should set the stage for a few days in the 70s, with overnight lows in the 50s, or thereabouts. In other words, it should feel a little bit more like March, rather than late April or May. Rain chances may start to perk up toward the end of next week, which would be a welcome development for our drying grounds. I’ll have more on that tomorrow.