Good morning. Before we get into the forecast this morning—long story short, we can expect three days of warm conditions before a stronger front moves through on Thursday evening—I wanted to touch on a couple of issues that are playing out in the background of Houston’s weather.

Monday’s dust

Monday was a weird day in Houston. A cold front moved into the region and stalled just south of the Highway 59-Interstate 69 corridor. Areas behind this front saw a pretty dramatic surge of drier air. By around 4 pm CT the relative humidity at Bush Intercontinental Airport, for example, had fallen to 15 percent, which is really low for late February. (Just as crazily, eight hours later, it was back to 100 percent as the front lifted north). Lots of dust rode into our region along with the front, creating air quality issues and haze. This dust was transported from West Texas, where there are drought-like conditions, and serious wind storms of late that are kicking up a lot of dust. You were breathing the desert on Monday, Houston.

For those of us who live closer to the coast, we experienced nothing of this on Monday. The front never made it. Conditions remained humid, and skies mostly sunny. We missed out entirely on the West Texas dust show. But never fear! With Thursday’s front the entire area may experience this dust again, as winds blow from the west-northwest. We’ll see.

Allergies

Tree pollen season is worsening. Monday’s tree pollen count in the city of Houston was above 2,000 for the first time this year, and any time there is wind you can see pollen flitting out of trees and causing you to sneeze. For people sensitive to pollen, this season is pretty obnoxious. Unfortunately it will probably be with us for the next three to five weeks.

Tuesday

It’s a tale of two cities this morning. Some far inland areas are still on the cool and dry side of the front. I’m looking at you, Conroe, with lows in the 50s. The front should lift further north today, entirely out of southeast Texas. Most of the region, however, is already back in the upper 60s or lower 70s with plenty of humidity. On top of all this, coastal areas are seeing a decent amount of fog this morning. Our mostly cloudy skies will give way to partly to mostly sunny skies later this afternoon, and high temperatures should rise into the low- to mid-80s for much of the region.

If you’re heading out to opening night of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, temperatures this evening will be in the upper 70s, with light winds, and increasingly cloudy skies. There really are no concerns as mild weather will continue overnight, with low temperatures dropping to about 70 degrees in Houston.

Wednesday

Patchy fog will be possible again Wednesday, when we should experience another warm day with highs in the low- to mid-80s. There is about a 20 percent chance of light rain. Winds will be more pronounced on Wednesday, perhaps gusting to 20 mph. Expect another warm night.

Thursday

We have lots of questions about Thursday’s weather, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours when a strong-ish cold front approaches the area. There will be plenty of moisture to work with, in addition to ingredients favorable for severe weather such as thunderstorms and possible hail or a tornado. However, there will also be a pretty healthy capping inversion in place over the area. For a time this may suppress storm activity, but the period from sunset to around midnight will see the potential for storms as this cap weakens. For now there are a lot of “maybes” in this forecast, but we should be better able to pin down the forecast for Thursday evening in tomorrow’s post. For sure conditions will be windy during the evening hours as the front approaches and passes, with gusts likely above 30 mph.

Friday

This will be a sunny, breezy, and cooler day with highs in the mid- to upper-60s. Lows on Friday night should drop into the mid- to upper-40s across much of Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks fine, and sunny, with highs likely in the mid-70s on both days. Pollen concerns aside, plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Most of next week should see warmish weather, with highs probably in the 80s before some sort of front arrives on Thursday or Friday. As always, we’ll have to leave the details to a future forecast.

Good morning. Houston will see a brief reprieve from humidity today and tonight as a weak front moves in, stalls, and then moves back across the region. After this we will be warm through Thursday before a stronger front brings substantially colder and drier air into the region. At this vantage point, the weekend looks absolutely sensational.

Monday

The first front will move down toward the coast by around noon. This front will probably push just offshore, or it may get hung up right along the coast. Either way a very thin line of light showers may accompany the front, and it will usher in some notably drier air—for about 12 hours. That’s because the front will start lifting back north by Monday night or early Tuesday morning. The bottom line is that, the further inland you live, the longer the dry air will last. Most of us will still reach the low 80s today, albeit with less humidity, and Houston proper should drop into the upper 50s tonight before the front lifts back north.

Tuesday

This will be a warm, mostly sunny day with light southerly winds. Look for high temperatures in the low 80s, and overnight lows dropping only to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

Expect another warm day, although with more clouds building over the area. Southerly winds will also be more pronounced, gusting perhaps to 20 or 25 mph.

Thursday

Our final 80-degree day of the week comes on Thursday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. A reasonably strong front will arrive sometime later on Thursday, perhaps during the afternoon or evening hours. This is a challenging one to forecast because it looks as though there will be a fairly strong capping inversion in place—that is to say warmer air higher in the atmosphere that prevents moisture near the surface from rising. The bottom line is that if this cap holds in place over the metro area, this mostly likely will be a dry passage. But if the cap breaks, well, storms could be on the menu. Hopefully as we get closer to the front’s passage we can confidently say one way or the other. For now, I’m leaning toward a mostly storm-free passage, but with fairly strong winds Thursday night after the front moves through. Temperatures will drop to around 50 degrees late Thursday night as a result.

Friday

Expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-60s on Friday. Winds will be breezy from the north, but also lessening the further into the day we get. Lows on Friday night may drop into the mid- to upper-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland, and warmer ones near the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend looks extremely pleasant. We will no doubt have to tweak the details. But for now we’re probably looking at mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. Humidity will be slowly on the rebound, but it should remain mostly at bay through the weekend. This will be one to spend outdoors.

Yesterday, Eric touched on the mostly dry forecast for the next week or so. You may be starting to ask yourself if we are heading back into drought. The answer is that we aren’t yet, but a few more weeks like this and we may be starting to discuss it more.

The Houston area right now is fine in terms of official drought. I imagine some farmers are beginning to feel it though across the region. In terms of Texas, about 58 percent of the state is in drought, substantially less than a year ago, so that’s great. But as temperatures begin to heat up and the days get longer, this becomes a little less likely to continue unless we see some meaningful rain. The good news is that parts of North Texas may get a bit of rain, but for the rest of us, it looks less positive. With a mostly dry forecast over the next week and the Climate Prediction Center calling for a dry-ish 8 to 14 day period, expect drought to start entering the vernacular a bit more.

Meanwhile, it hit 83° yesterday, our third consecutive 80 degree day. In February, we’ve done 5 straight days before, in 1986 and 1996. We aren’t expected to hit 80 today, so we will probably end it at three. Just a gentle reminder: These early 80s mean absolutely nothing at all about our later spring or summer. Nothing. So, you may love this or hate this early spring warmth, but it doesn’t mean April or August will go one way or the other.

Today and Saturday

In terms of actual weather, the forecast for today and tomorrow is relatively simple: Clouds, sun, and coastal fog. A passing shower or some light rain, drizzle, or mist is possible as well. We won’t see anything more significant than that.

In terms of temperature and humidity? Yeah, that’s another story. Depending on where you live or where you commute, you may experience both late spring and early spring today. As of 6 AM, the cold front was located basically from Sugar Land through Spring to Lake Livingston.

Why does this matter? From a temperature perspective, yes it’s cooler on the other side of the front, but it’s not exactly “cold.” I would expect mostly 60s to low-70s behind the front, while areas ahead of the front do mid to upper-70s today. More importantly, the humidity is sharply lower behind the front. Literally, right now it’s very, very humid at Bush Airport, yet just a little humid in Spring and bordering on comfortable in Conroe. So with this front literally parked over the metro area today, exactly where it’s parked will make the difference between a very warm and humid February day or a mild but somewhat comfortable one. It just so happens that millions of people live around that boundary, so your mileage is going to vary a lot today.

It’s unlikely that this front would get too far south and east today, so most areas south and east of Houston should stay warm and humid with areas of fog or low clouds.

This story continues Saturday. The front is going to move back to the north and west, but exactly how fast and from exactly what start point in the Houston metro area is difficult to say. In general, look for more warm and humid weather to gradually work north and west tomorrow, while coastal areas remain stuck in low clouds and fog. We’ll call it mid-70s for most, but a few places south and east could test 80°, while some places north and west may stay in the 60s to low-70s.

Sunday

By Sunday, the front should finally be making steady progress north. Weather-wise, it will be more of the same: Clouds, sun, and coastal fog. But! Winds on Sunday look a little stronger than Friday or Saturday, so I would hope that we could see the fog get lifted a bit on the coast. Look for a south wind of 10 to 15 mph, or a bit stronger at times over the water. Overall, Sunday should be a mostly cloudy, breezy, and warm day with 80s possible in many spots again.

Monday

Our next real definitive cold front is still scheduled for Monday. There could be an overnight or early morning burst of 20 to 30 mph south winds near the coast ahead of the front Monday, but things will calm down in the morning rather quickly. The front should clear the region by mid-morning Monday with only a handful of showers as it moves through. The rest of the day will actually look gorgeous. Expect sunshine, much lower humidity, and highs in the 70s.

Tuesday & Wednesday

We get our usual bout of cool weather behind the front on Tuesday morning, with lows mostly in the 50s.

A few 40s may be possible in outlying areas. Tuesday itself looks great with sunshine and highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Low, comfortable humidity will continue — a great opening night for the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo!

Onshore return flow means the humidity comes roaring back on Wednesday. Expect more clouds as well. We’ll test the 80s, and it will feel much less comfortable.

Later next week

Our next front is penciled in for Friday morning. This one should bring some rain and wind (especially offshore) with it, but whether it’s noteworthy or just something you’ll notice remains to be seen. We’ll watch it through the weekend. I’d expect Thursday to be cloudy, warm, and breezy. Friday should be changeable with a chance of early AM storms and gusty winds followed by clearing, much cooler, and drier weather. If all goes well, next weekend will be an absolute winner. Fingers crossed.

Pollen

It’s that time of year, allergy sufferers. This weather is not helping. But the trees are producing heavy pollen this week, and it will only get worse before it gets better. We’re not even close to peak yet, so start prepping now. You can track pollen levels during weekdays via the City of Houston.

There will, frankly, be little change in Houston’s weather during the days ahead until a weak front arrives Sunday night. And even that will provide only a relatively short-lived reprieve from the more humid air we’ve been experiencing. So if you enjoy mild weather, you’re in luck. The other thing to note that there is not significant rainfall in the forecast for at least the next 10 days. This bodes well for the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, along with the pre-rodeo festivities.

Thursday

With lighter winds, foggy conditions have returned this morning as temperatures and dewpoints are both about 70 degrees. This fog will dissipate this morning as temperatures climb. We should reach about 80 degrees beneath mostly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Low temperatures tonight will struggle to drop below 70 degrees.

Friday

A weak front will approach Houston on Thursday night, and stall somewhere to the west and north of the region. Areas inland of this boundary—approximated in the dewpoint map above—will see about 12 hours of moderately drier and cooler air. For most of the rest of us, Friday will be a lot of like Thursday, with cloudy skies, highs around 80 degrees, and lows of around 70 degrees.

Saturday

With high pressure holding sway, the weekend will be moderately warm and humid. For Saturday, we’re looking at partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 80s. Lows Saturday night will fall to around 70 degrees in Houston. Rain chances are near zero.

Sunday

We may see a bit more sunshine on Sunday, with highs again around 80 degrees. By Sunday night rain chances should rise to 30 or 40 percent as a front approaches, and pushes into the region on Monday morning. As a result overnight lows should drop into the low 60s for most of Houston. Any rain accumulations will be slight, on the order of hundredths of an inch, probably.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should be moderately cooler, perhaps with highs in the upper 70s and drier air. Lows on both nights should drop into the 50s before a warmer pattern returns for the rest of the work week. Overall rain chances appear low through this period. By next weekend, however, the models are suggesting we’ll see several days of cooler and drier weather. Not too cold mind you, but perhaps nighttime temperatures down to around 50 degrees. We’ll see.