In brief: We’re less than two days before the landfall of Beryl and there are still plenty of questions about the severity of impacts in Houston. This post will attempt to answer those that we can. In terms of planning, it is becoming increasingly clear that Monday, perhaps from the pre-dawn hours into early afternoon, will be the most impactful time for severe weather.

Status of Beryl on Saturday afternoon

Good afternoon. As of 4 pm CT, Beryl remains a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds and a slowly dropping central pressure. It’s movement is northwest, and it remains on course to make landfall in Texas on Monday, likely during the morning hours. There remains a fair bit of uncertainty about precisely what winds, surge, and rainfall the greater Houston area will experience.

You’ve probably noticed the showers and thunderstorms—there has been a lot of thunder and a lot of excited dogs down my way—this afternoon. These storms are not directly related to Hurricane Beryl, but rather are due to a dying front meeting up with the sea breeze and having a party with the peak heating of the day. These storms should sag toward the southwest this evening before fading out by or before sunset. After that we can expect a quiet night, I think.

Starting on Sunday, perhaps by noon, we may see our first rains from the outer bands of Beryl. However, there should be few mobility issues with making final preparations before the hurricane reaches the Texas coast. I expect stronger winds to begin reaching the coastal areas on Sunday evening, so if you live in places such as Galveston Island or Freeport, you’ll probably not want to be out too late. After midnight our region will start to feel the full effects of Beryl, and which I’ll talk about below.

However, before jumping into the forecast I want to share a couple of housekeeping notes.

Housekeeping notes

Find us: There are lots of ways to find and follow Space City Weather online, and to be sure you know when we post updates. We’ve created a page to help you find us on social media, via our (absolutely free) app for your phones and tablets, an email newsletter, and more.

Video Q&A: I’m planning to conduct a Facebook Live on Sunday at 1 pm CT. The purpose of this will be to answer your questions over the course of about 20 minutes (or longer, if there are more questions). You can queue up questions in the comments below, or on Facebook. We’ll also be taking questions live, during the event, which will take place on our Facebook page.

Beryl’s track and intensity

As expected, Beryl is spending most of today fending off dry air to its south, and wind shear to its southwest. The storm is starting to develop better organized thunderstorms, however, and it should slowly begin to intensify tonight. Sunday and Sunday night will present a more favorable opportunity for intensification, and the National Hurricane Center brings Category 1 hurricane to the coast on Monday morning. However, the storm could be a bit stronger than this as historically we have seen hurricanes quickly gain intensity as the near the Texas shore.

We are now only about 36 to 48 hours away from a final landfall along the upper Texas coast. But there remains a decent amount of uncertainty in the final landfall location, and even 50 or 100 miles matter since the storm is going to come inland relatively close to Houston. Our forecast models are pretty good, but we’re talking about relatively small errors that can still be caused by a wobble or two.

What I’m trying to say is that Houston is sort of on the edge: Depending on which way Beryl goes in the last day and a half we could see anything from fairly minor winds to near hurricane-force gusts; and a few inches of rainfall up to 10 inches or more. So my main message here is to be prepared for some serious disruptions in power and mobility on Monday, and if we’re lucky these issues will turn out to be minor. The forecast conditions outlined below are consistent with the latest operational forecast from the National Hurricane Center, which is the most likely (but not certain) outcome.

Timing and severity of Beryl’s impacts on Houston

There are three main impacts from Beryl, winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. Let’s go through the latest thinking on each of them.

Winds: Tropical storm-force winds could reach the upper Texas coast by Sunday evening. Generally, areas along and west of Interstate 45 have the best chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater, with higher gusts. In terms of potential power outages, I’m most concerned about Brazoria and Fort Bend Counties, and areas generally south and west of Houston. Again, the extent of our concerns about power losses will be driven by the potential for last second wobbles which will (or will not) bring the core of stronger winds closer to Houston.

Storm surge: Our thinking on storm surge has not changed much, with 3 to 5 feet expected along Galveston Island, and 2 to 4 feet possible in Galveston Bay. This surge is likely to peak on Monday morning, as Beryl nears land, and on top of high tide. Tide timings vary by location, but generally the highest water levels should be anticipated between 6 am and 9 am CT.

Rainfall: We’ve issued a Stage 2 flood alert for the entire Houston metro area, but like with Beryl’s winds, the risk for flooding is greatest along and west of Interstate 45. My best guess is that the strongest band of thunderstorms will move through Houston sometime on Monday morning, perhaps between sunrise and around noon. This likely will produce the most intense rainfall, and the greatest potential for rapidly flooding streets. If you have plans to be out and about Monday morning, please be very weather aware. In terms of accumulations I think most of the area will pick up 4 to 8 inches of rain, which is mostly manageable. However, due to the tropical nature of this rainfall (which leads to high rainfall rates) some isolated areas may pick up as much as 12 or even 15 inches. That’s … less manageable.

A note about flight cancellations

I mentioned this about three weeks ago, but I wanted to reiterate that we hear you on flight cancellations. It’s a major concern with inclement weather. I totally get the anxiety. However, neither Matt nor I are aviation meteorologists or pilots. Unfortunately, we don’t have any special expertise or insight into the decision-making at airports that lead to flight stoppages, nor the cancellation of flights. We try to be helpful, but we’re never going to be able to give you the certainty on this issue that readers want. With all that said, my general expectation is that heavy rain or winds may well disrupt and even cancel some flights on Monday or (less likely) Tuesday.

Our next update

We’ll be back late this evening, probably between 10 and 11 pm CT, with a short update on track, intensity, and some thoughts on whether Houston is likely to experience milder or more serious effects from Beryl. We will, of course, have full coverage on Sunday.

In brief: Although we cannot be certain at this time, it increasingly looks as though Tropical Storm Beryl is on track to make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay on Monday. For the greater Houston area this will result in higher winds, some storm surge, and heavy rainfall, with the greatest impacts likely on Monday. This post goes into what to tentatively expect, and when.

There is understandably a lot of consternation about the forecast for Beryl, which shifted considerably northward during the last day or two toward Houston. However, overnight the majority of our model guidance has stabilized on a landfall along the Coastal Bend of Texas, somewhere between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay.

Given the unpredictability of Beryl to date, I don’t blame anyone for being skeptical about this forecast. However there are a couple of reasons for increased confidence. Most importantly, we are only about 48 hours from landfall, and the average track error at this point is approximately 60 miles. And secondly, the models have stopped swinging about wildly and begun to consolidate on a solution.

In this post, we will discuss the effects of this “most likely” storm path on the greater Houston area, from Katy to Baytown, and Galveston to Conroe. For effects across the entire state of Texas, I would point you to The Eyewall. We will update Space City Weather a couple of more times today, and if our thinking on the forecast track changes, I will post immediately.

Hurricane Beryl’s status and track

Beryl emerged into the Gulf of Mexico as a ragged storm on Friday evening, and has since been struggling with drier air to its south, and wind shear to its west. As a result, as of 7 am CT, the storm has sustained winds of 60 mph. In terms of intensity, it will take Beryl some time to regain its organization, but by tonight or Sunday, it should move into an area of more moisture and lower wind shear, allowing for strengthening. It’s really a matter of how long it takes Beryl to get its act together, because once it does it will find conditions favorable for intensification. The official forecast calls for a Category 1 hurricane at landfall on Monday, but it could easily be a tropical storm or Category 2 hurricane.

In terms of track, Beryl is moving around the western periphery of a high pressure system, and should gradually turn more and more northwestward until moving due north around the time of landfall. That should come sometime on Monday morning, although the precise time is difficult to predict. The likely landfall location is between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay, but for now the greater Houston area remains within the cone of uncertainty.

Effects on Houston

Let’s go over the anticipated impacts on the greater Houston region, including winds, surge, and rainfall.

Winds: Along Beryl’s expected track, the system is unlikely to produce significantly damaging winds for much of the Houston area. The greatest risk of tropical storm force winds will be in Southern Brazoria County, and locations such as Freeport and Lake Jackson. Galveston Island will have about a 50 percent chance of tropical storm force winds, with higher gusts. Strong winds would likely arrive late Sunday night, and persist through Monday.

As Beryl moves inland, its center should pass to the west of Houston, so areas such as Sugar Land and Katy will also have a decent chance of seeing tropical storm force winds and higher gusts. If there are power outages, I would expect them to occur to the west of Interstate 45. However, at this time I do not envision a situation in which hundreds of thousands of customers in Houston lose power for a long period of time. Still, it’s something to monitor. The likelihood of seeing hurricane-force winds anywhere in the Houston metro area is virtually zero.

Storm surge: Areas along the upper Texas coast, including Galveston Bay, are likely to see 2 to 4 feet of surge at high tide. This surge should peak on Monday morning. The effect should be similar to what the region experienced with Tropical Storm Alberto a couple of weeks ago.

Rains: Beryl will bring plenty of tropical moisture with it, and the Houston region will likely see heavy rainfall on Monday (most likely) and Tuesday. In terms of accumulations, I would expect much of the region to pick up 4 to 8 inches, with higher isolated totals. This could well cause some flooding concerns, and we are initially issuing a Stage 2 flood alert for the Houston region. This means we expect widespread street flooding, and the potential for some homes to flood. As Beryl will continue moving northward after making landfall, I don’t think we’ll need to go higher in our flood stage warnings. We should get a better handle on timing of the most intense rainfall in a day or so.

In summary

Beryl has been, to say the least, a challenging forecast. Fortunately, we are in the home stretch. You have all of today, as well as most of Sunday, to make any final preparations. We will have an additional update on Space City Weather by 5 pm CT today. However, if there are substantial changes in our thinking, we will update before then. Thank you for your patience and trust.

In brief: There have been unexpected, and significant changes in the forecast for Tropical Storm Beryl over the last 24 hours. The implications for Houston early next week range from relatively mild to fairly impactful, and we’ve tried to set some expectations in this update. Expect much more from us this weekend as the Houston area now needs to pay closer attention to Beryl.

Houston and Beryl, my how things have changed

Over the last couple of days it seemed like it was within the realm of possibility that Houston might see some direct impacts from Hurricane Beryl, but it was a low-end probability. We wrote as much, and felt as much. But over the last 12 to 24 hours the models have undergone a dramatic shift as Beryl has tracked more north than anticipated, with these subtle changes now having a greater impact downstream. The trends have been universally bad for the upper Texas coast.

Just so you can appreciate this change, here is the shift in what is considered the best global model in the world, the ECMWF, and its forecast for Beryl’s landfall. The first image shows the model’s output at 7pm CT on Thursday, and the other one from 1 pm CT Friday, just 18 hours later.

The point here is that the models are still struggling with Hurricane Beryl, even though we are only three days from a final landfall. What once looked like a reasonably confident forecast has now been tossed out of the window. So I want to be clear that what we’re writing now is our best sense of how things will play out, but don’t be surprised if there are further changes. The greater Houston region is now at a significantly greater risk than things looked just a day ago.

Here’s what we know

As of this afternoon, Beryl has weakened into a tropical storm with 65-mph winds as it has traversed the northern edge of the Yucatan Peninsula. However it will soon move into the Gulf of Mexico. After Beryl moves back over water it will need some time to reorganize itself. The system is dealing with dry air to its south, and shear being produced by an upper-level low pressure system near South Texas. However, over the course of this weekend, as the system moves to the west-northwest, it should encounter less dry air, and lessening wind shear as the upper level low retreats west. Put simply: by Sunday or so, we should start to see Beryl get better organized, and this trend should continue as it moves toward the Texas coast, with a landfall expected on Monday.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, issued at 4 pm CT, shows a landfalling Beryl near Corpus Christi in the middle of the day on Monday. As a result of this, the National Hurricane Center has issued a “hurricane watch” for coastal areas from the Rio Grande Valley northward to Sargent, which lies at the northern end of Matagorda Bay (shown in pink, below).

This forecast notably keeps Houston, as well as Brazoria and Galveston counties, out of the hurricane watch area. However, it is entirely possible that the hurricane watch areas move further north, and eventually include Galveston Island. Given the trends we’ve seen over the last 24 hours, all bets are off.

Given the remaining uncertainty, in this forecast post I am going to write about two different scenarios, and the impacts on Houston. In the first scenario, Beryl comes inland along the current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center, shown above. Under the second scenario, we will assume the landfall of a 100-mph hurricane near Sargent, Texas. I consider this a low-end probability, say a one-in-10 chance; and also a reasonable worst case scenario for the Houston area. To recap, the two scenarios are:

OFFICIAL FORECAST: Sourced from the National Hurricane Center, and most likely

SARGENT SCENARIO: Less likely, but more impactful for the greater Houston region

Winds and power losses

Officially, the hurricane center predicts a Category 1 storm, with 90-mph winds, making landfall near Corpus Christi. In the Sargent scenario, we are assuming a modestly stronger storm, a Category 2 hurricane, further up the coast.

Under the official forecast scenario, Galveston Island has about a 1-in-3 chance of seeing sustained winds of tropical storm strength (39 mph), with higher gusts. Chances would be less in Houston, although non-zero. Areas to the west of Houston, including Katy, would have a decent chance of seeing those kinds of winds. Sporadic power outages are likely, although I would not expect to see widespread issues.

With a Sargent landfall, Galveston Island would be almost guaranteed to see tropical storm force winds, and they would be reasonably likely further inland, in places such as Katy and Houston. I think we would see some more widespread power issues, although I’m not envisioning something like half the region being without power.

Please note: In both scenarios the odds of seeing hurricane-force winds in the Houston region would still be quite low, as I expect Beryl to remain a fairly compact storm, with a relatively small area with the strongest winds.

Storm surge

Under the official forecast scenario, tides would run 1 to 3 feet above normal, not dissimilar to what Galveston and other coastal areas along the upper Texas coast experienced during Tropical Storm Alberto. This would not cause significant problems except for very low lying roads near the coast.

Under the Sargent scenario, storm surge levels would rise 3 to 5 feet above normal along Galveston Island and Galveston Bay, with the most impactful time likely coming at high tide on Monday morning in the Houston region. This still would not be an exceptional surge, but it could be disruptive for coastal areas.

Inland rainfall

Under the official forecast scenario, the greater Houston area is expected to receive 2 to 5 inches of rain next week, with the period of heaviest rainfall occurring from Monday morning through Tuesday night. We would see some higher bullseyes, of course, and probably necessitate us issuing a Stage 1 flood alert. We’ll make a final determination on that on Saturday morning.

Under the Sargent scenario, the core of heavier rainfall would likely line up more directly over the Houston region, with the potential for widespread totals of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, and higher bullseyes. This likely would necessitate a Stage 2 flood alert, or possibly higher. Again we’ll make this call on Saturday morning.

Timing of all this

For the greater Houston area, I don’t anticipate significant disruptions on Saturday or, most likely, all of Sunday. The strongest winds would probably cross our area on Monday, and the heaviest rains on Monday and Tuesday.

We still have a little bit of time to watch this storm and observe trends. However, it is important to pay attention to forecasts over the weekend to better understand how impactful (or not) Beryl will be to the greater Houston area early next week.

Our next forecast will be issued on Saturday morning. We will be watching closely for further track changes, as well as indications that Beryl will rapidly strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico (right now there’s no strong signal for that). Thank you for your patience as we struggle to get a handle on what is proving to be a dynamic forecast.

In brief: We are sharing this post from our companion site, The Eyewall, on the effects from Beryl across the state of Texas. If you’re looking for a TL;DR for Houston, it is this: Continue to monitor trends today and tomorrow. Make whatever preps you feel comfortable making or you feel are warranted. Current forecasts keep most meaningful impacts beyond localized flash flooding away from us.

Beryl’s future track

Beryl is going to be walking an absolute tightrope over the next 2 days. I say that for residents of Texas, because as Beryl turns, exactly where that turn occurs will have an outsized impact on who sees exactly what. For now, I think the key player is this trough over the Plains. Over the last 48 hours, models have tended to further strengthen the trough. That coupled with a slightly farther north track of Beryl has led to Beryl being able to “feel” the tug of this trough more, which is forcing Beryl to come a little more to the north when it gets into the western Gulf of Mexico.

So what exactly does this mean for Beryl’s forecast track? When you look at the 51 member European ensemble now, you can see that the majority of the members are turning Beryl northwest or even north northwest into Texas.

The problem is two-fold. First, where exactly does that turn to the north northwest occur? That will determine the landfall point on the Texas coast. Secondly, that landfall point will have tremendous impact on who sees what. A landfall in Matagorda Bay means the southwest suburbs of Houston could experience a full fledged tropical storm type outcome, whereas Corpus Christi would be pretty much fine. A landfall in Baffin Bay south of Corpus would likely deliver hurricane impacts to Corpus Christi and few impacts to Houston beyond thunderstorms and rain. Storms approaching at an angle, rather than more perpendicular to the coast provide a world of problems from communicating impacts. Literally a 15 mile change in the angle of approach can add or remove entire counties from certain expected impacts. My hope is that we’ll get some additional color on this by afternoon, and we will have another update this evening with the information.

How strong will Beryl get

Beryl’s intensity will be contingent, somewhat, on what it looks like coming off the Yucatan. Assuming some organization still, as well as tropical storm status should allow it to begin to quickly re-intensify. The waters of the Gulf, or the oceanic heat content available to Beryl is not inconsequential, but it’s also not the Caribbean rocket fuel that it had on the other side of the Yucatan.

Still, this argues for steady intensification as Beryl comes toward the Gulf. Water temperatures immediately adjacent to the Texas coast are quite warm, so Beryl will not weaken on approach and should make landfall as a strengthening storm. Most modeling keeps Beryl as a tropical storm or a low-end hurricane as it comes ashore. The NHC forecast is slightly more aggressive than this, which is a stance I wholeheartedly agree with. I would plan for a borderline category 2 storm at landfall and hope for the best. The radius of hurricane force winds is currently only 30 miles out from the center, so Beryl is a relatively small storm. Do not focus on the intensity of Beryl other than if you live along the immediate coast, as this will likely deliver tropical storm wind impacts to most. However, widespread tropical storm winds and localized hurricane winds will still cause power outages and damage and should be respected.

In addition, while we don’t currently have a storm surge forecast, it is safe to assume that Beryl will deliver a surge and coastal flooding between Corpus Christi and Cameron Parish, LA. We will have more details on this to come, but expect something similar to Alberto’s impact last month, with pockets of worse conditions near and to the north of where the center comes ashore.

Beryl also a heavy rain and flooding concern

In addition to the hurricane impacts we normally see, Beryl will be a heavy rain producer for Texas. The current rainfall forecast is calling for locally 6 to 8 inches of rainfall, but I fully anticipate that this forecast will be upgraded some before all is said and done. Double digit rainfall totals are likely in a few spots with the most persistent rainfall and localized flash flooding is going to be a concern.

Beryl will not stall, so I want to make clear for folks in Texas that this is not a Harvey redux. However, Beryl will move slowly once ashore. Even relatively more progressive and faster models like the GFS dump up to 10 inches in spots. So the heavy rain concern is there. Expect more color on this later today as well.

The bottom line

For folks in the Rio Grande Valley: If you live in a flood prone area, keep an eye on the rainfall forecast for Beryl. Wind impacts will likely be confined to Brownsville and the coast.

For folks on the Lower and Middle Texas Coast and Coastal Bend region, including Corpus Christi: Prepare as if a hurricane is coming and make sure to follow local officials guidance in terms of evacuation if needed.

For folks in the Matagorda Bay area: Start making preparations in case the forecast shifts to the north and brings hurricane conditions closer to the area.

For folks in the Houston area: Continue to monitor trends today and tomorrow. Make whatever preps you feel comfortable making or you feel are warranted. Current forecasts keep most meaningful impacts beyond localized flash flooding away from us. Coastal residents prepare for at least minor to moderate tidal flooding.