In brief: Houston may see some short-lived thunderstorms this morning ahead of a front. But the real weather story is likely to be gusty, very dry winds that will increase the potential for wildfires this afternoon and evening. Please take care with open fires. After that we have a mostly spring-like, mostly pleasant week ahead of us.

Red Flag warning

Nearly all of the metro area, save for areas east of Baytown, are under what is known as a “Red Flag” warning today after 10 am CT. This indicates the potential for fire danger due to strong winds and very low humidity. By late morning we will see westerly winds sustained to about 25 mph, and gusts up to 40 mph or potentially higher along with a front that is moving in. During this time you should avoid open flames and take care with cigarettes. Winds should begin to slacken this evening.

Tuesday

Houston faces the potential for one, or possibly two, thin lines of storms this morning ahead of a cool front. Although these storms are unlikely to be severe within the metro area of Houston, we cannot rule out some briefly strong thunderstorms. (The odds of severe weather are greater to the northeast of Houston, in locations such as Livingston). The last of these storms should clear the area by or before noon, with most locations picking up a few tenths of an inch of rain. Temperatures ahead of the front will be in the 70s for the most part with plenty of humidity. However, this humidity will sharply drop after the front, hence the Red Flag warning.

Rodeo forecast

The Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo kicks into high gear today, with the first concert of the season in Reba McEntire. This is a forecast you’ll want to pay attention to, because although you won’t have to worry about storms, winds will peak during the mid- to late- afternoon hours above 20 mph, with gusts of 40 mph or higher possible. These winds will have died down somewhat after the show is over. Temperatures will be about 70 degrees heading into the show, falling to the lower 60s by the end of the concert. Lows will fall into the low 50s by Wednesday morning in Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of sunny, calm days with highs in the mid- to upper-60s. Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be the coldest one of the week, with lows dropping into the mid-40s in Houston, and cooler for inland areas. Thursday night will be several degrees warmer as a southerly flow returns.

Friday

This day should bring cloudy skies back into the forecast, and highs approaching 80 degrees. There will be plenty of humidity as well. Lows on Friday night will fall to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

A cold front will arrive on Saturday, perhaps during the morning hours. Most of our guidance indicates this front will be dry, but at this point we cannot rule out the possibility of a few showers and thunderstorms. Saturday afternoon likely will see clearing skies, highs in the 70s, and breezy northerly winds. Overnight lows drop into the 40s in Houston.

Sunday looks sunny and very pleasant, with highs in the mid- to upper 60s. Expect another night in the 40s, probably.

Next week

We’ll be fairly warm next week, with highs likely pushing into the lower 80s. It should be some of our warmest weather of the year so far. Overall rain chances look fairly slight for much of the week.

In brief: Today’s post reviews the winter that just ended in Houston, and assesses how well the forecast did. We also look ahead to the (slight) possibility of storms on Tuesday before a pleasant spring-time week takes hold in Houston.

A review of winter 2024-2025

From a climate standpoint, winter runs from December 1 through the end of February. From a practical standpoint, winter in Houston roughly lasts from that period as well. This year, it almost certainly does, as winter is effectively over in Houston. I’m highly confident the region will not see another freeze this season, and reasonably confident that low temperatures are unlikely to dip into the 30s again for most of the metro area.

So now that winter is over, let’s take stock in what went down. The average temperature (the daily high and low, divided by two) over the last three months has been 56.8 degrees. This is above the historical mean of 55.2 degrees, and this winter ranks 31st of out of 133 years of records. If we look at the long term trend in the average temperature, it looks like this:

Now let’s dig into each of the three months a little bit more closely to see what we can see. As you may recall, December was quite warm. The month finished with an average temperature nearly 6 degrees above normal. The second half of the month did not feel winter-like at all. Do you remember our muggy Christmas weather?

January started out warm as well, but then conditions turned much cooler. During the second half of the month Houston experienced its first Arctic outbreak of the season, with temperatures plummeting all the way down to 20 degrees on one night. As a result of this colder weather, Houston finished January with an average temperature for the month 4.4 degrees below normal.

All of which brings us to February. The first third of February was exceptionally warm. We broke or tied four daily records for high temperatures in Houston, and some of our nights saw record warmth as well. But then the middle of the month was defined by the season’s second Arctic outbreak, with a few nights in the 20s. Despite this colder weather, February still ended with an average temperature a little more than 2 degrees above normal.

How did the forecast do?

We issued our winter outlook four months ago. We forecast a relatively mild winter, with temperatures above normal. However, we included this caveat:

However—and there’s always a but in meteorology, it seems—there is one caveat to this forecast. Because of the way this pattern sets up, it will block much of the colder Arctic and Canadian air from the lower United States for most of the winter. But that does not exclude the pattern breaking one or two times. If that happens, and it probably will at least once this winter, there will be a large pool of much colder air available to dip down into the southern United States, including Texas

Essentially, that’s what happened. Houston had a mild winter punctuated by a couple of strong bursts of very cold weather. And now, we’re on to spring.

Monday

After days and days of sunshine, we’re seeing mostly cloudy skies today. Despite a warmer overall flow, these clouds should help limit high temperatures to the mid- to upper-70s for most locations. We will also see a slight chance of light showers throughout the day, but mostly skies will just be gray. As on Sunday, we’ll see some gusty southerly winds, likely picking up to 25 mph or so this afternoon. Lows tonight will only dip into the upper 60s.

Tuesday

As a front approaches, we’ll see increasing rain chances after midnight, and throughout the morning hours on Tuesday. By around 8 to noon we may see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms develop and push through the area. Although we cannot entirely rule out the possibility of some severe weather, the dynamics favoring strong storms are more favorable to the northeast of the region, where there is a slight risk of storms. Most of Houston will likely pick up a few tenths of an inch of rain. Any lingering rains should end by around noon, with much drier air moving in behind. Temperatures will be in the 70s.

Beginning tomorrow, we’ll have daily forecasts for the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, but my main concern is northerly winds. They may gust up to about 30 mph on Tuesday afternoon and early evening before settling down. So, quite literally, hold on to your hat. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of sunny and mild days. We’re talking highs generally in the mid-60s. Expect lows on Wednesday night in the 40s, and on Thursday in the 50s. We should have zero weather concerns during the middle of the week.

Friday

We should see the return of some clouds along with a warmer flow on Friday, with highs in the mid- to upper-70s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weather on Saturday will be determined by the timing of a cool front, which likely will push through during the daytime. This may produce a slight chance for some showers, but I expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the 70s. Sunday looks to be sunny, and cooler, with highs in the upper 60s maybe. Most of next week looks mild, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, so the watch word is “mild.”

In brief: Houston has a really nice weekend ahead of us with 70s and sunshine. Next week gets a little trickier with a storm system Tuesday that could deliver some strong storms, followed by another round of very nice weather.

As the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo kicks off with the BBQ cookoff this weekend and the parade tomorrow and Mardi Gras rolls on in Galveston, southeast Texas will be treated to some really solid spring weather. But we will be watching next Tuesday for the potential of some stronger thunderstorms.

Today through Sunday

All three days should be partly to mostly sunny with highs in the 70s today, near 80 tomorrow, and back in the 70s on Sunday behind a weak little backdoor front coming from Louisiana. Morning lows will be in the 50s or upper-40s in spots. There may be some fog around tomorrow morning, and there is a chance of some fog clinging to the coast tomorrow afternoon. For Mardi Gras in Galveston, bring a hoodie. If you’re going to pre-Rodeo events or scoping out the Dynamo (and Messi) this weekend or anything else, it’s going to be great.

Monday

Much stronger onshore flow begins to establish on Monday, leading to warmer temps, higher humidity, clouds, and some patchy fog. A few isolated showers or pockets of drizzle cannot be ruled out. After morning lows near 60, daytime highs will probably push to near 80 degrees.

Tuesday

Tuesday is going to be an interesting day. There is a very clear-cut severe weather risk Tuesday as a disturbance and front approach. The question locally is whether the “cap” can break.

For those new to Houston or that aren’t familiar, often during springtime severe weather events, Houston’s geography allows it to be somewhat protected by what we call a “cap” in the atmosphere. It’s just a point above our heads where the air turns warmer and drier all of a sudden, which physically essentially “caps” how tall clouds (and thus thunderstorms) can grow to be. Houston often avoids the fate of the rest of the southern Plains’s reputation for being tornado alley in spring because of this.

The challenge for us, especially 5 days out, is determining whether or not that “cap” will be eroded or break. And that’s just not really a high-confidence parameter to predict. That said, the highest risk for severe storms on Tuesday will clearly be to our north. But the risk of some strong to severe storms close to the Houston area, especially on the north side of I-10 is not zero.

Otherwise, Tuesday looks breezy and warm, with highs around 80 degrees.

Rest of next week

Behind Tuesday night’s front, the rain and storm threat will end and much cooler, drier air will push back into the area. It looks like a wonderful finish to next week. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will probably be near 70 with morning lows in the 40s and 50s.

In brief: Although there will be differences in humidity and nighttime lows, Houston will predominantly see high temperatures in the 70s for the next week or so. This period will include some absolutely gorgeous weather days, including Friday and Saturday of this week. We are watching for the possibility of some storms with a front next Tuesday.

Thursday

Houston is experiencing its warmest morning in weeks, with low temperatures generally only in the lower 60s across the metro area. However, a modest cool front is on our doorstep, and it will move into the region today. As a result we will see partly to mostly cloudy skies, although likely no rain showers. Highs today will be slightly cooler, in the mid-70s. Cooler and drier air pushes in this evening, allowing low temperatures tonight to fall to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Friday

This will be a truly splendid day, with high temperatures in the low 70s, light northerly winds, and fairly dry air. Like, it will be just about perfect. Friday night will be cool again, with lows in the lower 50s.

Saturday

Expect more sunshine on Saturday, with high temperatures a bit warmer, in the upper 70s for much of Houston, but possibly the lower 80s for a few inland areas. With a more southeasterly flow, lows on Saturday night will only drop into the mid-50s.

Sunday

Another day with mostly sunny skies. Highs will likely be a few degrees lower on Sunday, in the low- to mid-70s, with perhaps a few clouds arriving during the afternoon hours. There will be a slight chance of rain on Sunday night into Monday morning, but only a slight one. Beginning on Sunday we are also likely to see a more pronounced southerly wind, so conditions could be a bit gusty at times. Lows on Sunday night should remain in the 60s.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday of next week look to bring cloudier and more humid weather, with highs in the upper 70s to possibly lower 80. We’re starting to see some indications that a cool front next Tuesday or Tuesday night may bring with it a chance of storms as it rumbles through Houston. At this vantage point we don’t really have many details or any certainty, so we can’t say much more. But it is something we’ll keep an eye on as that’s the opening night of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. After the front’s passage we’ll see high temperatures in the—you guessed it, 70s—and cooler nights.