Good morning. Houston’s hotter than normal weather for July will continue for the foreseeable future, as high pressure continues to set the agenda through the weekend and into next week. It looks as though the heat will peak this weekend, with triple-digit conditions for much of the area, before a slight moderation in temperatures next week. As for when we might see widespread rainfall, that is probably at least a week or 10 days off.
By Friday of this week, temperatures will be sizzling outside. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday
Skies will be mostly sunny today, with highs generally in the mid- to upper-90s for central parts of the Houston area, with warmer conditions possible inland, and slightly cooler weather along the coast. Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. As an atmospheric disturbance approaches, we may see a few scattered to isolated showers this afternoon, but overall chances are probably about 20 percent for the coast, and 10 percent inland. So, not much. Lows tonight will probably not fall below 80 degrees.
Thursday
A day quite similar to Wednesday.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
The heat continues to build into the weekend, with highs of about 100 degrees likely for much of the metro area, to go along with sunny skies. Rain chances are less than 10 percent—unless you count the perspiration falling as you walk outside.
Yep, it’s going to be hot for awhile. (Weather Bell)
Next week
It looks like the high pressure system will retreat a bit to the northwest next week, which should bring highs down a couple of degrees. It won’t be much to start. But I could see the development of more clouds later next week, and that’s when rain chances may start to improve a little bit.
Since our post last week, Tropical Storms Bonnie and Colin have formed and exited the Atlantic basin. Looking ahead, those should be the last storms for a bit.
Tropical outlook in a sentence
Over the next week (or longer), we are not expecting any new systems of note in the tropical Atlantic.
Bonnie & Colin
This time last week, we noted that PTC #2 would likely become Bonnie and “has a chance to become a hurricane as it approaches Central America, but it probably has equal chances of not being one too.” As it turns out, the latter was correct. Bonnie’s forward speed and a bit of shear was just too much to overcome, and the cyclone never organized until it moved into the Pacific. Since it held itself together across Central America, it retained the name Bonnie, and is heading out to sea.
Bonnie finally did become a hurricane, and it’s marching out to sea in the Pacific Ocean. (NOAA)
Meanwhile, Colin formed briefly off the Carolina coast, somewhat of a surprise from last Tuesday’s post. Colin didn’t last long, about 24 hours from Saturday through Sunday, and it dumped a few inches of rain in parts of the Carolinas.
The accumulated cyclone energy of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is right at normal for the moment, while our 3 named storms is more typical of early August. (Colorado State University)
ACE tallies up how long a storm maintains a certain intensity during its lifetime. The bigger the storm, the bigger the ACE, and obviously the more of those storms in a season, the higher the value will be. Typically, our 3rd storm does not form until early August, so from that point of view, we’re cranking. But they’ve all been fairly weak systems, so overall our season is off to a mostly normal start, which is nice for a change.
That said, note from the chart above that we still have roughly 97.7 percent of the season ahead of us from an ACE standpoint. Again, it’s normal for the early season to be generally weak.
Looking ahead
Over the next 7 to 10 days, we are not expecting any tropical development in the Atlantic. As always, you could get a Colin scenario, where something brief and weak can spin up close to home. Short of that, however, it appears dust and minimal tropical waves of note will be the story over the next week and probably a bit longer. Dust tends to indicate dry air is present, which is not something tropical storms care for. This is also the time of year we expect widespread dust over the Atlantic basin.
Yellow, orange, and red colors indicate Saharan dust over a broad chunk of the Atlantic Ocean, something not terribly uncommon for this portion of the season. (University of Wisconsin SSEC)
Some of the typical things we’d look for to kickstart tropical activity are sitting out there on the horizon per the models, so I would expect maybe the last week to 10 days of July to provide some items to watch, but that’s purely speculative right now. For now, enjoy the quiet we have and use it as an opportunity to ensure you’re set for the August and September gauntlet.
Good morning. I hope everyone had a safe, healthy, and happy Fourth of July. If you liked the calm and hot conditions on Monday, you’re in luck, because high pressure is more or less here to stay, and that’s the kind of weather we’re going to see for awhile. If you did not like the weather, well, I’m sorry to say the pattern is unlikely to change for at least a week or two.
Tuesday
Skies will again be mostly sunny today, with high temperatures of around 90 degrees right along the coast, to mid-90s in parts of Houston, to around 100 degrees for far inland areas. Winds will also be light, out of the south at 5 to 10 mph, for much of the day. With a persistent onshore flow there will not be much relief overnight, with lows unlikely to drop below 80 degrees for much of the metro area.
Much of Texas has fallen under a ridge of high pressure this week. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
Each of these days will generally bring temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s, but the difference is the ridge should back off just slightly. This will allow for a slight chance of showers each afternoon, perhaps on the order of 10 to 20 percent. These will occur as the sea breeze migrates inland, and you should consider yourself lucky if you win the rain lottery each of these days. Nights remain warm and muggy.
Saturday and Sunday
If you’re making plans for the weekend, you can reliably count on hot and sunny conditions, with highs near 100 degrees in the metro area. Prepare to sweat.
High temperatures this weekend will look something like this. (Weather Bell)
Next week
Hey Eric, when is this pattern going to change? Well, as we get deeper into July, the models suggest the next reasonable chance for widespread rain probably won’t come until the weekend after next, in the July 15 to 17 range. Because that is so far out to forecast, overall confidence in this kind of a pattern change is fairly low.
Tropics
They’re fairly quiet, and we’ll have an update from Matt a little later this morning.
After several days of cooler weather, and for some locations fairly wet conditions, high pressure has again started to assert control over our weather. There really is not a whole lot more to say other than that temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than normal for the foreseeable future with lots of sunshine. And because today is a holiday, this post will be short and (not so?) sweet.
Monday
Highs today will range from around 90 degrees along the coast, to mid-90s in the city of Houston, to near 100 degrees for far inland areas such as College Station and Conroe. Skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon. Winds will generally be light, out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Aside from the lingering heat, there are zero concerns for fireworks this evening. However because of dry ground, especially north of Interstate 10 where the recent rains left less of an impact, please take care of any activities that could cause wildfires.
High temperature forecast for Monday, July 4th. (Weather Bell)
Tuesday
A lot like Monday, but without the fireworks.
Wednesday through Friday
Each of these days will bring highs in the mid to upper-90s in Houston, with warmer conditions further inland, and slightly less hot along the coast. It does look like atmospheric moisture levels may tick up a bit during the second half of the week, allowing for a slight 10 to 20 percent chance of a an afternoon shower along the sea breeze. But don’t get your hopes up.
Temperature outlook for this weekend into the middle of next week. (Pivotal Weather)
Saturday, Sunday, and beyond
Temperatures look to rise even a bit further this weekend, with 100-degree weather possible in the city itself. At this point I expect sunny weather to continue, with perhaps 10 percent daily rain chances. Quite honestly there does not seem much chance of a pattern change at least into the early to middle part of next week. Hot, hot, hot.
The good news is that the Atlantic tropics look to be quiet for a while, as the overall pattern favors sinking air over much of the basin. Please have a safe and enjoyable Fourth of July!
