This is my second favorite post of the year to write—that fall’s first real front has finally arrived in Houston. (Tomorrow, I plan to write my favorite). Not only will we see drier and cooler air, one of the pleasant surprises of this front is its sticking power. We should see about four days and notably cooler nights before humidity levels start to creep up on Sunday. More typically, our first fall front washes out within a couple of days. So let’s enjoy!
Wednesday
Dewpoints have generally fallen to the upper 50s this morning, and should fall further throughout the day. Accordingly, the air will feel much drier. With lots of sunshine, temperatures will quickly warm to the mid-80s this afternoon, but drop again as the Sun sets. Winds will be out of the north from 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Overnight lows will vary widely, from about 50 degrees in Conroe to 70 degrees right along the coast, in Galveston Island.
Thursday morning’s low temperatures are going to be sublime. (Weather Bell)
Thursday and Friday
More of the same: Sunny skies, highs in the low- to mid-80s, and cool nights down in the low 60s in Houston, and cooler for outlying areas.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend looks a bit warmer, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s, but there should still be enough dry air to keep conditions pleasant, especially on Saturday. Skies will be sunny, and rain chances near zero. Plan outdoor activities with confidence.
Houston’s rain chances are zero until next Tuesday or Wednesday, after which a wetter period may return. (Weather Bell)
Next week
As the onshore flow really returns on Sunday, we’ll start to see dewpoints climb, and we’ll get back to late summertime weather with highs near 90 degrees. Rain chances should also start to increase by Tuesday or Wednesday as atmospheric moisture levels rise, along with lots of cloud cover. Most of next week will probably be warmer and muggier.
Houston’s first “real” front of the season is less than 24 hours from pushing through the metro area. So after one more hot and sultry day, Houston will see several days of cooler and drier weather. If you live north of Interstate 10, a couple of nights in the 50s are a possibility. At least somewhat drier air should remain with us through the weekend.
Tuesday
The high temperature on Monday reached 95 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and highs will be similar today across the region with sunny skies and light southeasterly winds before the front arrives. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms should reach areas north and west of Houston, such as Katy and Conroe, around 6 to 8 pm. This line will push through the metro area shortly after sunset, and reach the coast by or before midnight. These showers will be advancing from northwest to southeast fairly rapidly, and could bring some briefly heavy rain and lightning. If you have outdoor plans this evening, please have a place to find temporary shelter. Drier air will move in overnight, behind the front.
Tuesday’s high temperatures will be August-like. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday
This is the good stuff. We’ll wake up to temperatures on Wednesday morning generally in the 60s, with much drier air. Winds will be out of the north at 10 to 15 mph, with sunny skies. Highs will get into the low 80s. Lows Wednesday night will probably be the coldest of the week for many areas, dropping into the upper 50s for inland areas, with around 60 in the city of Houston.
Thursday and Friday
One nice thing about this front is that it should have some sticking power. We expect dry and pleasant conditions to continue through the work week, with highs in the 80s, and lows in the 60s for most of the region. Dewpoints should remain below 60 degrees until at least Saturday, which means the air will not feel sticky. Skies will be sunny, with a near zero percent chance of rain.
Thursday morning’s low temperatures will not. (Weather Bell)
Saturday and Sunday
At this point it looks like the onshore flow won’t really get going until later Saturday or Sunday, which should allow Houston to enjoy a fairly nice weekend, with highs in the 80s and still enough dry air to make a nice contrast with summer-like weather. Skies will remain mostly sunny, with no rain.
Next week
Our gradual warmup will continue at least into Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. At that point it’s possible we may see temperatures recover to about 90 degrees, and our first real rain chances won’t return until that time. Bottom line: We’ve got nearly a week of fine, early fall weather. I suggest you enjoy it.
Tropical outlook for Tuesday morning. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropics
The Atlantic tropics are popping with activity, but there’s nothing that poses an immediate threat to the Gulf of Mexico or, indeed, any landmasses. The red “X” may eventually become a threat to the Caribbean isles, or it may recurve north before doing so.
A few years ago Dan Reilly, the warning coordination meteorologist at the local National Weather Service, and I were discussing fall cool fronts. The first day it truly felt like fall in Houston should be a holiday, we agreed. Every year since, Space City Weather has designated the first day it will truly feel like “fall” in Houston as Fall Day. This year, that day comes on Wednesday, after a front moves through overnight and brings much cooler and drier air to the region. It may not be an official holiday, but it sure should be one after we survive summer.
Low temperature forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. (Weather Bell)
Monday
Before we get to the front, however, Houston will experience a little bit more heat. Highs today should reach at least the low 90s, with sunny skies. Rain chances are essentially zero north of Interstate 10, and perhaps 10 to 20 percent closer to the coast. Winds will be light, out of the southwest, at 5 mph. Conditions overnight will be warm and muggy.
Tuesday
This will be another hot, humid, and sunny day in Houston, but it will be the last one for awhile. That’s because a bona fide front will push through Houston. The timing is a bit uncertain yet, but expect a broken line of showers and thunderstorms to reach central Houston perhaps around sunset, and push off the coast during the late evening hours. After this, drier air will move into the region during the overnight hours. Most of the region should wake up Wednesday morning to dewpoints in the 50s.
NAM model forecast for the radar at 7pm CT Tuesday. This is only a very rough estimate. (Weather Bell)
Fall Day
This will be a fine day, with sunny skies, moderate northerly winds of 10 to 15 mph, and highs in the low 80s. As the sun drops toward the horizon, so too will temperatures. Inland lows likely will reach the upper 50s, with areas closer to the coast staying in the low 60s.
Thursday and Friday
These should be sunny, pleasant days with highs in the low 80s, and overnight lows down around 60 degrees.
Saturday and Sunday
We should see some warming over the weekend, but even with mostly sunny skies I don’t think highs will get above the mid- to upper-80s. Dewpoints will remain lower than summertime levels, so while it won’t be cold, it won’t be unpleasantly steamy, either.
Call it the Charlie Hustle tropics forecast, with Peter and Rose active in the Atlantic Ocean. Fortunately, neither storm presents a significant threat to any landmasses. Beyond this, the red X off the coast of Africa could very well develop as it moves west across the Atlantic Ocean. This system seems unlikely to be bound for the Gulf of Mexico, however. Overall, in fact threats to the Gulf over the next 10 days are fairly low. I’m not complaining.
We continue to enjoy fairly quiet weather across the region in the wake of Hurricane Nicholas. Today will be no exception, though things get a bit more unsettled this weekend. But the drumbeat regarding our first legitimate autumn cold front is growing louder today. For now at least, it would seem that some very nice weather is on the horizon for the back half of next week. More on that below.
Today
Friday will probably be similar to Thursday in a lot of ways with clouds and sunshine sharing the sky. Yesterday saw upper-70s at Bush Airport compared to mid-80s at Hobby. Today should probably see 90 or better in a lot of locations, provided the sun is out a good bit. Otherwise, look for mid to upper-80s, still warmer than Thursday.
A warm but fairly pleasant Friday should be in store for most of the area, with little rain chance. (NOAA)
Rain chances are quite slim to none today.
Saturday & Sunday
We sort of settle back into more of a typical late summer pattern this weekend, as Eric’s been noting the last couple days. The coverage of showers and storms expected has wobbled a bit lately, but it looks like we’ll have decent coverage of showers tomorrow and maybe a bit less coverage on Sunday. We’ll have a good bit of humidity and highs in the upper-80s to low-90s depending on cloud cover. Morning lows should be in the 70s.
Early next week
Monday looks pretty good right now with just a chance of a shower or storm but otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Look for morning 70s and afternoon 90s. Tuesday looks similar, though with perhaps a slight nudge up in rain chances.
Cold front update!
On to what should be the good news. Both the GFS & European models are in agreement on a cold front coming into the area on Wednesday. They differ on exact timing and how strong it will be, but they both show it distinctly in their forecasts and ensembles for the most part. Here are the low temperature charts from the 51 Euro ensemble members and the 31 GFS ensemble members. I’ve boxed in the period for next week.
Both the Euro (left) and GFS (right) have good agreement among the majority of their ensemble members for a cold front through Houston next week, though they differ on exact timing and amplitude. Click to enlarge. (Weather Bell)
The Euro is at nearly 100 percent agreement on a pretty potent cold front reaching the area, closer to Wednesday morning. The GFS, however looks to be at more like 50 to 55 percent agreement, with most ensemble members not quite as cool as the Euro. But, when you look closer at the GFS, it does bring a strong front south; it just manages to whiff to our east, bringing most cool air into Louisiana, rather than Texas. That same chart above and to the right shows more like 90 percent agreement in a front when you look at it for Lake Charles, which seems a bit odd to me.
I would say there’s a bit of uncertainty right now on the finer details, like whether it’s 60 to 65 or 65 to 70 in the mornings late next week (though I will say that it’s quite tantalizing to see several European ensemble members in the 50s). In terms of getting the front through Houston, that’s looking like an increasingly likely proposition. Assuming that’s the case, expect a period of showers or thunderstorms Tuesday night or Wednesday, followed by mostly sunny conditions for the end of the week. Highs would be in the 80s with low humidity. And again, we’ll see about how cool morning lows go.
Tropics
The Atlantic remains active with two areas still holding at a 70 percent chance of development over the next 5 days. Both are expected to head out to sea.
While the tropics remain busy, as is typical for September, none is a realistic threat to the Gulf. (NOAA)
Some folks will continue to point to Invest 95L (the red area in the central Atlantic) as being concerning, but in order for it to come more west, it would have to remain a disheveled mess and would likely get ripped apart before it got far enough west to be concerning. Oh, and with a cold front likely to get well offshore next week, the western Gulf is protected through at least next weekend. In other words, you can rest easy. No concerns for us.
