Happy Sunday, everyone. I wanted to dedicate a special post to the tropics today because there’s a lot happening, and we just want to let you know where things stand with each area we’re watching.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

We expect activity to crank up a bit this week, with potential for a named storm or two, but at this time none of these is a direct threat to the Houston area.

Quick overview

As of Sunday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center has four areas highlighted for potential development over the next 5 days.

In addition to these four areas, there are some things in the Gulf to watch but none that are likely to develop tropically. We’ll get to all these areas now. Use the map above as your guide.

Area 1 in the Caribbean

Is this a concern for Texas? Not really, but it may help contribute to some rainfall next weekend or after Labor Day

The main area we’ve been watching for a few days now is a disturbance that’s heading into the northwest Caribbean. The GFS model latched onto this system last week, incorrectly it turns out, and was trying to bring this into the Gulf as a substantial storm on occasional runs. Models seem to have latched onto this now and favor a track that’s a bit farther south and into Mexico. Whether it becomes a system or not remains to be seen.

It certainly has a long way to go based on the satellite image above. Why are we confident in this likely staying to our south? Well, for one it’s disorganized. Weaker systems will be less apt to gain latitude and will continue generally off to the west or west-northwest across the Caribbean. The longer this takes to organize, the narrower that exit ramp becomes until perhaps it’s too late and it ends up being forced into Mexico or even Central America.

Even in the case of the more bullish GFS model, one look at the ensemble tells you all you need to know. Wherever the low is this Saturday evening; be it west of the Yucatan over the Bay of Campeche or just approaching the Yucatan, as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf from Bermuda, it will seal off the northward exit door, and even a stronger system would likely be forced into Mexico here. And again, that’s assuming the GFS is correct on developing this…a bit of a stretch right now.

So, at this point, the only real thing this might do in Texas is bring us some rainfall enhancement later next weekend or just after Labor Day. Obviously, we’ll watch for any changes, but at this point, we have limited concerns regarding this system.

Invest 91L

Is this a concern for Texas? At this time, we do not believe this will impact the western Gulf at all.

Invest 91L is likely to garner most of the headlines this week. It has the highest chance to develop right now, and it’s likely to be the one that comes closest to the U.S. This one is going to be a bit of a challenge to predict I think, as the steering currents around it, and the organization of the system itself will ultimately impact its track and both seem complicated.

In the near-term, this thing has to fight dry air all around it, compounded in part by pretty aggressive wind shear on either side.

Over the next 3 to 5 days, as this comes west and west-northwest to just northeast of the Lesser Antilles, it will then likely start feeling the effects of shifting steering currents. Initially, those steering currents may keep an exit door open for 91L to turn out to sea. But if it’s too weak to gain that much latitude, it will stay in place and may actually get turned a bit back to the west again, bringing it a bit closer to the Bahamas or Florida perhaps. This would be the result of that high pressure shifting west across the northern Gulf that helps keep area 1 away from Texas. It may also cause it to slow down some as well.

From there, it’s anyone’s guess. At this point, I am not expecting anything major from this, but it’s worth watching in the Southeast or the larger Caribbean islands and Bahamas. But any impacts in those locations are at least 6 to 8 days away. Never say never, obviously, but at this point it seems unlikely to get to the Gulf.

Invest 92L

Is this a concern for Texas? No.

The second invest in the Atlantic is chilling east of Bermuda. It’s no threat to any land mass at this time, and any development would be slow and probably weak.

Area 2 in the deep Atlantic

Is this a concern for Texas: Not right now, and probably not at all.

The last area of note from the NHC is in the far eastern Atlantic. Right now, things are a bit of a sloppy mess out there, with storms, tropical waves, and more — but nothing organized.

What exactly happens out here is TBD. Models are convinced something should come of this, but none of the model data looks especially significant at this point. Some even turn this out to sea before it even gets halfway across the Atlantic. Whatever the case, this is so far away and so disorganized right now, that there’s little we can intelligently say about this area. So we’ll leave it at that for now.

The Gulf

As of Sunday afternoon, there are no areas of interest outlined in the Gulf by the NHC. Looking at satellite here, that may be somewhat tough to believe.

That area of thunderstorms looks better than anything in the tropical Atlantic that’s outlined at this time. But looks are sometimes deceptive. While certainly there is a lot of storm activity in the western Gulf, there is no organization to this area right now, nor is there expected to be. This moisture is expected to come north and northwest over the next 36 hours, and this is likely to enhance our coverage of showers and storms tomorrow and perhaps Tuesday, particularly along the coast but perhaps inland as well. We’ll have more on this for you in our usual Monday morning post, but keep your umbrella handy tomorrow.

Aside from that, the Gulf looks quiet. There are modeling hints of something trying to emerge out of Central America after Labor Day, but it’s so far out and has such modest model support right now that it doesn’t make sense to speculate beyond the fact that we’re always monitoring things this time of year. We’re good this week, and we’ll keep tabs on all the things out there as the week progresses. As good a report as you could ask for on August 28th. More for you tomorrow AM!

Good morning. Houston will remain in a wet, but not too wet, pattern for the next several days at the region lies between high pressure systems. Effectively this means we’ll have a healthy chance of rainfall for the foreseeable future, although perhaps only 40 to 60 percent of the region will see showers on a daily basis. We don’t have any flooding concerns as these should, for the most part, be showers of the variety that move in and then move out. Daily rain chances and partly cloudy skies should help to keep highs in the low- to mid-90s, which is near or slightly below normal for this time of year.

Friday

The boundary that sparked showers along the coast and, later, near downtown Houston on Thursday has started the process of lifting north today and is effectively dissipating. This means that while the atmosphere remains reasonably moist, there is less of a forcing function for showers. So I’d anticipate rain chances in the vicinity of 50 percent today for much of the area, but with accumulations well below 1 inch for all but a few areas beneath stronger thunderstorms. Activity will be most widespread during the afternoon hours. Highs will generally be in the low 90s, with partly sunny skies, and light winds out of the southeast.

Saturday

A similar pattern should be in place for Saturday, with hit or miss showers. Most of these will be garden-variety showers but with the moist atmosphere we simply cannot rule out a few stronger and more intense thunderstorms. Look for highs generally in the low 90s with partly sunny skies. Outdoor plans in the morning should be OK, but you’ll want to have a plan for passing storms during the afternoon and evening hours.

Sunday

If you like Saturday’s forecast, have I got a deal for you. Sunday will be much the same, with the similar threat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Some areas will get rain, some will not. Generally, areas closer to the coast and east of Houston will have better chances for more rain through the weekend. Most areas won’t pick up more than 0.5 to 1.5 inch through Sunday, however.

Next week

This pattern is more or less going to hold for much of next week, with highs generally in the low 90s. As late Augusts and early Septembers go, this is not a bad thing in my opinion. There will be healthy rain chances continuing, but again nothing threatening from a significant flooding standpoint. In the middle of next week we’ll see a front move down into Texas, and we’ll be watching to see whether it pushes up rain chances for areas north of Interstate 10 (no, we’re not going to see notably cooler weather, sorry). After that we’ll be watching the tropics and the Gulf of Mexico, as discussed below.

Tropics

At present there’s still not much going on in the tropics, but that is going to change over the next week. The principal area we’re watching is an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Caribbean Sea. This will continue to move westward, and should push into the Gulf of Mexico next week. After that time it may find more favorable conditions for development; or possibly not. I’d love to tell you where it’s going to go once it gets in the Gulf, but with an undeveloped system, more than a week out, that is a fool’s errand. I still think Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana are the most likely destinations. If this does impact Texas’ weather, it would start to do so as we approach and get into Labor Day Weekend. For now, it’s certainly not something I’d lose sleep over. So why did I write a whole paragraph about it? Because you really don’t want to mess with low pressure systems in the Gulf of Mexico, in early September.

Elsewhere there are more tropical waves in the Atlantic, and about to move off of Africa into the Atlantic, but none appear to present a long-range threat to the Gulf of Mexico at this time.

Have a great weekend, everyone. Matt will be with you on Monday as I’ll be in Florida for the launch of NASA’s Space Launch System rocket. I’m excited to see this big rocket fly, and weather there looks favorable.

Good morning. The focus for moderate to heavy rainfall has shifted to the coast and offshore this morning, putting down a considerable amount of rain in locations near Matagorda Bay. The Houston metro area will continue to see healthy rain chances through at least the middle of next week, but accumulations do not look all that significant, such that we should be worried about flooding. We also need to keep an eye on the tropics, which may start to blossom as we approach Labor Day Weekend. We’ll discuss all of this below.

Thursday

With a weak boundary set up along the coast today, that’s where the bulk of the precipitation will lie. If you live north of Interstate 10, skies should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low 90s, and low rain chances. The closer you get to the coast, the greater the chance of clouds and rains, and accordingly highs should only reach the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Right along the coast, accumulations of 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible, but amounts will be much lower for areas just a bit inland. Winds will generally be light, out of the north. Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s.

Friday

Houston’s atmosphere will remain in an unsettled pattern on Friday, and for the next several days, due to the absence of high pressure and fairly high atmospheric moisture levels. However, there appear to be no triggers for rainfall, so we’re looking at a pattern where showers and thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and evening hours, along with daytime heating and the sea breeze. Accordingly, expect highs in the low 90s on Friday, with partly sunny skies, and about a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

Saturday and Sunday

This forecast should more or less hold for the weekend. If you have morning plans outdoors, they should be fine. Things may become a little more challenging during the afternoons and evenings, with the potential for a passing shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the vicinity of 90 to 95 degrees.

Next week

As we head into September, don’t expect too much of a pattern change. We’ll continue to see highs in the low 90s, for the most part, with a healthy chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These conditions will probably hold until the second half of next week, as we approach Labor Day weekend. After that time our weather may be influenced by the tropics.

Tropics

So far it has been an exceptionally quiet August for the Atlantic tropics, but we continue to see signs that is going to change. Moreover, one of the systems we’re watching has a decent chance of moving into the Gulf of Mexico in about a week or so from now.

To illustrate this let’s take a look at an ensemble forecast from the European model, which runs a few dozen variants of the main model to provide a range of outcomes. This is useful because if a lot of ensemble members have similar forecasts, then we can have a reasonable amount of confidence in such a forecast coming to pass. Below, in the ensemble model’s forecast for one week from this morning, we can see the European model pinpointing three different areas for development.

Of most concern to us is the blob I’ve marked “1.” Both the European and US GFS models have been highlighting this potential for a couple of days, and I’d say there’s a pretty good chance that some sort of tropical system, whether it be a disorganized area of thunderstorms or a tropical storm, will reach the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Wednesday or Thursday of next week. After that, it probably would move into the Gulf of Mexico. It could really go anywhere after that, but the most likely locations would be Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana. The bottom line is that we’re looking at the possibility of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico as we head into Labor Day weekend.

This is not something you should panic about, by any means. The storm must overcome wind shear and a host of other obstacles. But as we get into late August and early September, we’re going to be watching all of these waves closely, because the next month is prime time for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes.

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Good morning. Houston’s wet pattern will persist for awhile, but today and Thursday offer the best chances for widespread and heavy rainfall before the precipitation eases back just a bit. Overall we don’t have any real concerns for significant flooding, but we should continue to see the potential for some street flooding beneath the stronger storms. Additionally, we will need to monitor the tropics over the next month, as there are indications that the Atlantic is waking from its long slumber.

Wednesday

Showers will be likely today across the region, with the potential for more widespread rainfall closer to the coast, south of Interstate 10, where the most atmospheric moisture will be. I think much of the region will pick up between 0.25 and 1 inch of rain today, with totals greater the further south one goes. Some isolated areas could pick up 2 to 4 inches within the stronger and slower moving storms. Mostly cloudy skies should help to limit high temperatures to the upper 80s to 90 degrees, and winds will generally be light out of the southwest. Basically, this is a day when you want to check the radar before heading out of doors, just to make sure nothing too intense is headed your way. Rain chances will slacken this evening, with the loss of daytime heating.

Thursday

This should be a day similar to Wednesday in terms of the overall setup, I just don’t expect showers to be quite as widespread, nor the rainfall quite as heavy. The focus should again be closer to the coast for the stronger showers. For now, I’m thinking ‘Wednesday lite’ in terms of stormy weather, with highs for most of the region reaching about 90 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Overall, Houston will remain in a pattern favorable for additional rain through the weekend. What should change is that some of the factors that favor heavy rainfall should start to wane, so that we enter a situation where showers spin up and then quickly move along. So for this weekend I think we’re probably looking at partly sunny skies, highs in the 90 to 95-degree range, and perhaps 50 to 70 percent chance of rain. Again I don’t think these won’t be all-day kinds of rains, but you should at least be planning for the potential of a passing shower.

Next week

We’re unlikely to see the return of high pressure next week, so we should see see temperatures continue in the 90 to 95-degree range, with a decent chance of showers during the daytime, and less so at night. It now looks as if this pattern will persist into early September. If you’re wondering whether there’s any hint of fall’s first real front in the medium-range models, the answer is, alas, no. I’ll be a summer bummer and say it is not time for fall yet.

Tropics

It is time, however, to start watching the tropics. While there is a tropical wave in the deep Atlantic showing signs of life, for the Gulf of Mexico our focus should be on a low pressure system that will move into the Caribbean Sea later this week. There is now a decent amount of support in the ensembles of the GFS and European models for this to potentially develop into a tropical storm next week. The obvious question is, where will it go after that? Expect to see some social media noise during the next couple of days because the operational run of the GFS model, for the last few runs, has been bringing a fairly strong tropical system to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast late next week. However there are a very, very broad range of outcomes here, and the scenario with the most support right now would see a weaker tropical system that tracks more westward, into the Yucatan Peninsula and Mexico. So really, anything can happen.

The bottom line is that this is a system for us to watch at this point, and that should come as no surprise as we’re in the midst of the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. For now, as usual, be wary but not worried.