In brief: A line of storms passing into Houston will clear the area later this morning, and the region should see clearing skies for the second half of the day. Then we’ll have a brief period, about 24 hours, of somewhat drier and cooler air. A second front (no strong storms this time, probably) may bring some similarly cool weather for the weekend, but no promises.

Election Day weather

You don’t need me to tell you that today is Election Day in the United States. We are seeing storms pushing through the metro area this morning, but they will be east of the area by or before noon. After this there will be mostly fine conditions this afternoon, with clearing skies and light winds as a weak front settles in. Space City Weather is apolitical, but that does not mean we don’t encourage everyone to vote. Please find the time to do so today. The weather will be fine.

And then, after the election is over, I would hope that we remember that we are all Americans, stronger when united than divided. Just because your neighbor put out a Trump-Vance sign, or someone down the street has a Harris-Walz bumper sticker, does not mean they’re a bad person. We’ve been too conditioned by heated rhetoric and social media to ‘hate’ those who have different political opinions. If you actually get out and talk to your neighbors, no matter their political views, you’ll find that in Houston we’re all united behind common values, such as: summertime humidity here is the worst.

Tuesday

I expect the line of storms rumbling into Houston this morning to reach the coast by late this morning, and move offshore. Modestly drier air will move in behind the front today with northerly winds at about 10 mph. We should see clearing skies this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 70s for the most part. I expect it to be quite lovely this evening. Overnight lows in Houston will drop into the upper 50s for most locations, with coastal areas remaining in the 60s. For a day or so, it’s going to feel like fall.

Wednesday

By tomorrow we’ll start to see the beginnings of an onshore flow, and dewpoints will recover pretty quickly. So don’t blink or you’ll miss the drier air. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs of around 80 degrees. Lows on Wednesday night will not drop below 70 degrees for most of Houston with muggier air.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days with high temperatures in the low 80s, and warmish nights with lows around 70 degrees. There will be some low-end rain chances each day, but any accumulations will be slight.

Saturday and Sunday

Another front will approach the region ahead of the weekend, but the forecast models are still pretty divided on how much cooler or drier air it brings. In other words, I’m afraid our forecast for the weekend remains pretty low confidence. If pressed, I’ll say daily highs will be in the upper 70s, with nights in the 60s, but I’m prepared to be wrong. Rain chances aren’t zero, but they’re also not very high, maybe 20 percent daily. We had a question from the Houston Marathon about long training runs for this weekend, and at this point I wouldn’t be overly concerned about rain chances on Saturday morning. Whether we get some drier air in time for a long run remains possible, but not a certainty.

Next week

Even if we do get some decent cooling with this weekend’s front, we should be back into a warmer and more humid pattern early next week. Most of our guidance still indicates the arrival of a nice cold front during the middle of next week, but I’m still not confident enough to make any promises. However, it does seem fairly likely.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Rafael is strengthening this morning, and should cross Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico by later on Wednesday, likely as a hurricane. The storm’s current forecast track may look concerning, but the reality is that there are two scenarios which are most likely—and neither is particularly threatening to Texas.

The first scenario is that Rafael remains a hurricane as it reaches the central Gulf of Mexico, in which case it is likely to be steered toward southeastern Louisiana or thereabouts. If Rafael becomes weaker it is more likely to drift due westward toward Texas. However, in this scenario the storm would be considerably weaker, and probably not pose much of a threat beyond some easterly winds and higher seas. We’ll continue to watch things closely, of course. Look for a full report on The Eyewall later today.

In brief: Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean Sea on Monday, and it could well become a hurricane before moving into the Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. Although we don’t have any major concerns here in Texas, we are sharing this post from our sister site, The Eyewall, so readers can be informed about the situation. We’ll continue to monitor things, of course.

Hello, Rafael

As of Monday afternoon Tropical Storm Rafael has winds of 45 mph, and it appears to be in an environment that will promote steady, if not rapid intensification over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Model guidance is in good agreement through tomorrow and Wednesday on a track taking Rafael due northwest just west of Jamaica, across the Cayman Islands, and right into western Cuba as healthy hurricane. Tropical storm force winds extend out about 105 miles from the center, so a tropical storm watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. Hurricane Watches are posted for Cuba, and warnings are posted for the Cayman Islands.

In addition to the tropical storm and hurricane conditions, heavy rain and flooding are a possibility for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba as well. Heavy rain will eventually work into portions of Florida and the Southeast as well as Rafael comes north. More on that in a second.

Once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico

So where will Rafael go on the other side of Cuba? That’s a tough question right now, as there are several factors in play once the storm gets into the open Gulf of Mexico. Moisture surging out ahead of Rafael will “pre-saturate” the Gulf to make it somewhat more hospitable for the storm to maintain intensity as it comes halfway across the Gulf of Mexico. But once it gets into the northern Gulf, the combination of significant dry air and wind shear may be Rafael’s undoing.

The wind shear is always a bit of a question mark; sometimes as storms come north, the shear can help to actually vent the storm a bit, which can unintentionally cause further strengthening. In this case, I think the shear is too strong, and this ample dry air (and there’s a lot of it) will likely take its toll on Rafael.

Because the storm will likely be weakening, I would reason that it should keep going northwest or even west northwest across the Gulf, almost like an aimless wanderer. If Rafael maintains its intensity longer than we anticipate, it could turn more north-northwest toward the Florida Panhandle or the central Gulf Coast. For now, impacts on the Gulf Coast are probably limited to pockets of heavy rain, rough seas, and minor tidal flooding issues. But as with any storm during hurricane season, it makes sense to monitor it closely in the coming days.

In terms of rain, it will be interesting to see how that initial surge of moisture interacts with a cold front approaching the Southeast on Wednesday and Thursday. There are model uncertainties on exactly how this will play out, but it appears that a significant rainfall event may unfold over central Georgia or southern South Carolina. This will be south of the hardest hit areas from Hurricane Helene. But it still means heavy rain and flooding are possible. Right now, the forecast calls for about 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, but some models do drop bullseyes closer to 10 inches in some areas southeast of Atlanta or west of Charleston.

The important takeaway here is that with Rafael expected to weaken due to dry air, there should not be a second surge of rain that follows this like we saw with Helene. So, it’s something to monitor closely in central Georgia and South Carolina, but the hope is that it will be manageable beyond localized issues. We’ll keep an eye on this.

Once Rafael dissipates, that’ll do it. Another area just north of the Caribbean may try to develop in several days, but it’s not a concern right now.

In brief: There’s a lot going on in today’s forecast, with the possibility of some storms tonight and Tuesday morning ahead of our region’s next front. Then we’ve got an uncertain weekend forecast and the likelihood of a tropical storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico several days from now. We tackle it all!

Stormy setup

Unlike the previous fronts we’ve experienced this fall, a weak front that remains on track for late tonight should bring a line of showers and storms with it as it passes through Houston. The setup is not perfect, so at this time I would only rate it as a 5 out of 10 on the “excitable dogs scale,” but we could definitely see some thunderstorms and strong winds, along with the slight potential for some hail and possibly a tornado. Conditions for storm formation will be more favorable north of Houston.

In terms of timing, I’d anticipate the storms will reach College Station roughly around midnight, push into the Katy area and Montgomery County around 2 to 4 am, reach central Houston around 3 to 6 am, and push down to the coast by around 6 to 8 am. Note these times are approximate. While the storms should be ebbing by rush hour on Tuesday, I cannot rule out impacts. Some areas may pick up as much as 2 or 3 inches of rainfall as the storms pass from northwest to southeast.

Monday

Today, before the front tonight, we’ll see very warm and windy conditions. We’re talking highs in the mid- to upper-80s for most locations, with very high humidity. Winds will be even gustier than we experienced on Sunday, blowing generally from the south at 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph or perhaps even a bit higher near the coast. There will be the possibility of scattered showers today, much like the region experienced on Sunday. Tonight will be very muggy ahead of the arrival of the front.

Tuesday

After the front passes we may see some lingering showers on Tuesday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Expect daytime temperatures generally in the low- to mid-70s. This is not a particularly strong front, and it will only briefly move offshore, so the period of dry air will probably last from around Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will vary depending on how far you live from the coast, but most of the area should see the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday

As the front moves back onshore Wednesday, humidity levels will quickly recover during the daytime. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Winds will be light. Rain chances are low, but not non-existent. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will only drop into the lower 70s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days with highs around 80 degrees, and mild and muggy nights. Rain chances each day will be on the order of 20 percent.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

It’s possible that another fairly weak front arrives for this weekend, but I don’t have great confidence in that part of the forecast. In any case, it might be a situation where inland areas see some cooler nights and the coast remains warm and muggy. As a best guess, I’ll predict highs of around 80 degrees with low-ish rain chances for this weekend.

Most of our guidance predicts a stronger, truly fall-like front to arrive sometime during the middle of next week, but that’s far enough into the future that I’m not fully confident in predicting it will happen. But there does appear to be a fairly strong signal for colder weather toward the end of next week. It is November, after all.

Tropics

I cannot believe we’re talking about the tropics in early November, but here we are. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area in the Caribbean Sea as a potential tropical cyclone, and if this system develops (which is likely) it will become named Rafael. At first glance, the forecast track might appear to be fairly concerning for Texas, with a tropical storm in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

There is a lot of uncertainty over this system’s track over the next week. However, if the storm does make it to the central Gulf, it will find fairly robust wind shear and dry air, which should inhibit strengthening. It would be historically unprecedented to have a tropical storm make it to Texas at this time of year, and much of the modeling guidance keeps the storm away, so it’s doubtful we have much to worry about. My sense is that we may see some higher seas by this weekend offshore, but probably not too many other impacts. Regardless, we’ll be watching closely and keeping you updated.

In brief: After yesterday’s smattering of decent rain in spots, Houston will continue to see at least spotty to scattered showers and storms the next several days. A cool front is expected to disrupt the warm and humid weather early next week, with some uncertainty on just how far through the area it gets. Also, don’t forget to turn back the clocks tomorrow night!

Houston saw a wide range of rainfall yesterday, with a couple of areas clearly cashing in, while others struggled. The big winners were in Richmond, Rosenberg, and just west of Sugar Land, where close to 4 inches fell. Galveston and Brazoria Counties did well also with a general 1 to 3 inches in most spots. Beaumont did well to our east, as did Brookshire to our west. All in all, I’d venture to guess that about 60 percent of you are pleased with what has fallen so far, while the other 40 percent are smarting a little.

The good news is that we are not quite done with the rain yet, but the bad news is that it will be very spotty over the next few days.

Today through Sunday

Look for sun, clouds, and a smattering of showers each day. Exactly where and when these occur is impossible to predict, but the environment is supportive of at least a 30 to 40 percent rain chance each day. No need to alter plans, but have a spot in mind to scoot to if it rains for a brief time. Highs will be generally in the low to mid-80s with lows in the 70s and muggy conditions.

Oh, and don’t forget to set the clocks back an hour tomorrow night. I used to joke that I would have to adjust my temperature forecasts because of “one hour less daylight.” Meteorologist humor.

Anyway, have the umbrella handy but hopefully the rain won’t bother you too much.

Monday and beyond

Next week will be a bit of a tricky forecast. Monday should start off much like the weekend with high humidity, warm, and humid conditions. We’ll continue a chance of a shower or storm. On Monday night, a cold front will approach Houston. It should push through the area, but there are hints in model guidance that the front will probably stall near the coast or just offshore. Assuming that happens, we will turn slightly cooler and less humid on Tuesday and Wednesday. I’d expect highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

Nothing too special there, but it’ll feel refreshing at least! That front may actually come through with a little oomph on Tuesday morning, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a line of thunderstorms douse everyone with a half-inch to inch of rain and some thunder.

After Wednesday, the front will probably push back onshore Thursday, ushering back in warm and somewhat humid conditions before the next front. When will that arrive? Maybe next weekend? We’ll see. Model guidance has been a little wonky in the extended range lately in terms of timing and strength of fronts, so I don’t want to overpromise anything.

Tropics

Yes, it’s November 1st, and yes Houston’s hurricane season is (historically) done. We don’t need to worry about the system in the Caribbean with a 70 percent chance of development.

However, it could be a player in the weather across the western Caribbean next week. We can’t get too specific on anyone’s forecast, but if you’ll be traveling to the western Caribbean or Central America next week, keep tabs on things at our companion site, The Eyewall.