In brief: We may see an additional round of storms this afternoon as a disturbance drops into the area, and then fairly widespread showers are likely on Thursday and Friday. The outlook for the weekend is sunnier, with lower rain chances.

A few more words about August

I wanted to share some feedback I received after yesterday’s comments about August weather in Houston. (If you don’t remember, I basically said there is nothing redeeming about August’s weather here). This person wrote in to say:

“I really like the in-depth forecasts, but the continued complaining about Houston’s hot & humid climate does not serve you well …   If you moved here from a colder climate, and you don’t like the heat here, why torture yourself?  Move back and enjoy your life.  But if you’re going to call yourself a Texan, a Houstonian, or just live here, please consider dropping the complaints.  It’s one reason I don’t frequent your site more.”

First of all, thank you for the feedback. We are always looking to improve the site and be more responsive to reader needs. However, I will be ignoring this suggestion. Yes, I realize that there are some people who like peak summer weather in Houston. Bless your hearts. However I do call myself a Houstonian (having lived here for 28 years), and one of the defining things about being a Houstonian is the God-given right to complain about the summer weather here. If that turns you off, I’ll just have to live with that.

Wednesday

Today is an interesting one. We should see sunny skies and hot and humid weather, withs high pushing into the upper 90s this afternoon for all but inland areas. However, an upper level disturbance should drop down from north of the region later this afternoon and push into the city. I’ll be frank, the modeling has not been consistent with this. However, given what we have seen in recent days, and the abundant moisture in the atmosphere, I feel confident in predicting that some parts of the metro area will see rain this afternoon or early evening, and that some of these showers will turn into thunderstorms (possibly severe). So be on the lookout for storms later today, but they may very well not hit. Overall rain chances are probably only about 40 percent. Lows tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

A frontal boundary will ooze into the area to end the work week, and while this won’t provide much in the way of dry air or cooler temperatures, it should be the spark for some fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Rain totals will, as is often the case, be highly variable across the region. I expect most of us to receive 0.5 to 1.5 inch, with higher bullseyes perhaps a little more likely south and east of the city. In any case, you should be prepared for downpours to interrupt outdoor activities, but it won’t rain all of the time. Highs should be a little lower, in the low- to mid-90s, with warm, humid nights.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure expands from our west this weekend it should slightly dry out the atmosphere and reduce daily rain chances to about 30 percent. These days should, accordingly, be mostly sunny with high temperatures probably in the vicinity of the mid-90s.

Next week

Next week is the final full week of August. Fortunately we look to be ending the month with (for Houston) relatively modest conditions, with highs in the low to mid-90s, and daily rain chances of maybe 20 to 40 percent. Another dying front will approach the area later in the week, but I’m not sure it will have that much sensible impact on our weather. We’ll see.

In brief: Today’s post rants a little bit about August weather in Houston, and proceeds to talk about a weak (emphasis on weak, y’all) front moving into the region. This is mostly just going to drive increased rain chances on Thursday and Friday as we stay uncomfortably in the 90s, temperature-wise.

August rant

There is never any good weather in August in Houston. As I’ve written before, it’s either blazing hot with a burgeoning drought, or some tropical system is bearing down on the region. This month has been, shall we say, not terrible as daytime temperatures have been a little more reasonable and there has been some on-and-off again rain showers to help with our soils. (Although yes, angry person on Facebook, not everyone has gotten rainfall every day).

As expected, some scattered thunderstorms developed on Monday afternoon and evening, and indeed we anticipated that some of these would bring (briefly) heavy rainfall and strong winds. However I did not expect serious hail, but this being August of course that’s what happened. In areas such as Champion Forest and Jersey Village there was half-dollar and golf ball-sized hail reported. We cannot rule this happening again, elsewhere, for the rest of the week.

The point I’m trying to make is that there really is no helping August weather in Houston. The only thing one can do is survive and advance. The good news is that we’re doing that. Today is August 19, and there are just 12 days and 20 hours until September 1.

Tuesday

The pattern today should be a little bit different, with shower and thunderstorm developing a little bit earlier in the day. It will be driven more by a weak disturbance moving through than the sea breeze, and accordingly showers will be most likely from mid-morning through the early afternoon hours. Storms have already initiated north of the area, in Conroe, and I expect these to drop down into the city and coastal areas over the next few hours. Highs will generally be in the mid- to upper-90s for much of the region, especially with the likelihood of clearing skies this afternoon. Lows tonight will only drop to about 80 degrees.

Wednesday

This will be a hot day, and I suspect we’ll be back to showers and thunderstorms later in the day, during the afternoon and early evening. You know the drill, rains will be hit or miss. Look for highs generally in the upper 90s away from the coast.

Thursday and Friday

I’ve been hesitating to call it a “front,” because people have reasonable expectations for a cold front moving into Houston. However, meteorologically speaking, a front will push into the area on Wednesday and Thursday. Alas we’re not going to see some grand influx of drier air and cooler temperatures. A front at this time of year mostly just perturbs the atmosphere, so we’ll see increased rain chances (perhaps 70 percent daily) to end the work week. We can expect daily highs in the low- to mid-90s, with nighttime temperatures in the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The front should stall around the coast, so we are likely to see an unsettled pattern persist into the weekend. Expect highs in the low- to mid-90s, with high rain chances on Saturday, and perhaps lesser coverage by Sunday. I would not characterize the weekend as a total washout, but there definitely will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially on Saturday. Overall accumulations for most locations through the weekend will probably be on the order of 1 inch. However, there probably will be a few bullseyes that accumulate 3 to 4 inches of rain over the next few days, and this may lead to some spotty street flooding.

Next week

Overall next week should bring lower rain chances and partly to mostly sunny days as we transition back to a more typical late August-like period. My expectation is for highs in the mid-90s, but we’ll see what happens.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss our increasing rain chances for this week, with a wet period most likely from Thursday through Saturday. We also dig deep into an outlook for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season as we have now entered “go” time for the season and Texas.

“Go” time for the tropics

Over the weekend we saw Erin rapidly intensify, going from the Atlantic season’s first hurricane to become a Category 5 storm within 24 hours. Fortunately, Erin remains unlikely to affect any landmasses as it follows a corridor between the North American coast and Bermuda. But the rapid strengthening of Erin indicates that we’ve entered a new phase of the Atlantic season: prime time. For Texas, the next six weeks are by far the period we are most concerned about in terms of when, historically, the largest and most powerful storms have hit the state.

Beyond Erin another tropical system is likely to form in the open Atlantic over the next couple of days. This storm should initialize further south than Erin did, giving it a better chance of approaching the Caribbean Sea, rather than skirting to its north. Although we cannot say anything definitive at this time, the majority of our model guidance has this system turning to the north before reaching the Gulf, perhaps following the same corridor as Erin, perhaps not. We will continue to watch it, of course.

The European forecast center (ECMWF) performs a weekly outlook forecast that looks ahead about a month, and after a busy period through the end of August, it actually is forecasting a bit of a lull in Atlantic tropical activity (approximately 60 percent of normal levels) during the first week of September (see below) and 80 percent of normal levels during the second week. I would not take these weekly forecasts to the bank, but they beat the alternative of an extremely busy forecast.

The bottom line is that, in Texas, we need to pay close attention to the tropics for the next six weeks. Although there are no immediate threats in the coming days, and the outlook for the remainder of August is fairly good, the tropics can always surprise us. As ever, Houston, be wary but not worried about the Atlantic tropics.

Now, let’s jump into the weekly forecast.

Monday

Houston’s high temperature peaked at 101 degrees on Sunday, and the region saw virtually no rain showers. This offered a nice reminder of what August can do down here, but it also was probably the warmest day we are going to see this week.

Monday should be quite hot again with widespread temperatures in the upper 90s due to sunny skies and high pressure in the vicinity. With that said, there is enough instability around to support the development of at least some scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, probably in the time range of 3 to 4 pm. Some of these storms, although isolated, could be fairly potent so if you have after school activities please be mindful of the potential for thunderstorms. Lows tonight will only drop to about 80 degrees.

Tuesday and Wednesday

High pressure will slowly retreat this week, and that will allow for improving rain chances and gradually lowering temperatures. Tuesday and Wednesday should both be solidly in the mid-90s for most locations however, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Each day will see about a 50 percent chance of showers (mostly during the afternoon) with a few isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

This three-day period should see the best likelihood of rain, with chances generally from 50 to 70 percent daily. This should help drive high temperatures down to around 90 degrees, or just above, for much of the region. In terms of accumulation I would expect much of the region to average about 1 inch of rain through Saturday, or so, but totals will be widely variable. We certainly could see some spotty flooding, but I’m not anticipating major, or widespread concerns. If you’re planning outdoor activities, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, you’ll need to watch the forecast closely.

Sunday and beyond

Rain chances will hang around in the forecast for Sunday and into next week, but they probably will begin to slacken some. With luck our high temperatures will remain in the low- to mid-90s, which is a pretty good way to end the month of August in H-town.

In brief: Invest 98L, the Gulf tropical disturbance, will bring an enhanced chance of showers or storms to Houston today and Saturday, but nothing much more than that. After that exits, we maintain typical August weather with heat, humidity, and daily shower and storm chances.

Today/Invest 98L

First off, let’s get the elephant in the room taken care of: Invest 98L, the tropical disturbance approaching the South Texas coast is becoming less likely to develop now, particularly because it’s quickly running out of runway to work with. Odds remain 50% per the NHC, though if it does develop, it would be a tropical depression for about 3 to 6 hours or less before reaching land in South Texas.

That being said, it looks somewhat interesting on satellite this morning, conversationally at least.

This may look a little scary, but in reality, there is no low-level circulation so while there are some heavy thunderstorms and heavy rain underneath this blob of clouds, the system is not organizing much. So you can disregard any meaningful tropical development (wind, coastal flooding) elements of this for the most part.

What we will watch for at least is rain.

We don’t expect a ton of storms here today. But as this blob of storms lifts toward the coast, watch for development coinciding with daytime heating from Matagorda Bay up through Galveston, quickly moving inland. The one thing that will probably limit flooding is that storm motion today looks pretty quick. Unless we end up seeing several storms in a row over the same area, expect a few places to see perhaps an inch or two in less than an hour, some quick, minor street flooding, and then hopefully calmer weather. It’s possible that we also see a localized stronger storm with gusty winds as well.

Overall, the impacts of the tropical disturbance should be for a slightly more active August afternoon today. Even on slightly active days, some neighborhoods may not see any rain at all, so that’s possible too.

It’s extremely humid outside this morning as some of that added moisture works into the area. We had some of our warmest overnight lows of summer in some parts of the region yesterday, and we’ll be close to matching or exceeding them today (Jamaica Beach has not fallen below 86 degrees as of this writing for example).

Saturday

With the tropical disturbance dissolving inland, we’ll be left with added moisture and onshore flow Saturday. For now, I’d say this is pretty typical August weather, but I wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see a few repetitive thunderstorms that cause some minor street flooding tomorrow. Otherwise, just look for high humidity and warm to hot temperatures in the 90s.

Sunday & Monday

We should see relatively calm weather here, with just a continued slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Coverage should be a little less than it will be today and Saturday however. Highs in the mid-90s.

Rest of next week

High pressure is going to flex and expand in the Rockies and central Plains. This should open the door to some rain and thunderstorm chances out of Louisiana into southeast Texas, combining with sea breezes in the area to keep us somewhat active. Look for mid-90s continuing.