In brief: Temperatures are the lowest they’re going to get this week, and it’s really not all that cool outside. However, much more humid and windy weather is on the way after today through Saturday. Easter could see a chance of mostly light showers ahead of a possible cool front.

Wednesday

Temperatures this morning are in the low- to mid-60s across Houston and even cooler to the northeast. Although this is not chilly by any means, it is likely to be the coolest weather the region sees through the weekend as we enter a warmer and more humid pattern after today. Expect highs today in the lower 80s for most locations, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will come from the southeast beginning this morning, and by this afternoon they could be gusting up to 20 mph or so, marking the return of a robust and humid offshore flow that will be with us for awhile. Lows tonight will drop to about 70 degrees in Houston.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of days with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Both days should see high temperatures push into the mid- to upper-80s, with the potential for some locations to hit 90 degrees on Friday. The defining feature of both days is likely to be winds, with southerly gusts of 30 or even 35 mph possible during the afternoon hours. There is a slight chance of rain, perhaps about 10 percent, for both days. This pattern is also going to make for fairly humid nights, with lows only dropping to the lower 70s.

Saturday

This looks to be a mostly cloudy day, and this should help to limit temperatures slightly, perhaps in the mid- to upper-80 degree range. We still should see those fierce southerly winds, and warm and humid nights. Rain chances remain in the 10 percent vicinity. Anything that falls will be light.

Easter Sunday

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies on Sunday, with humid weather and highs in the mid-80s. The good news is that southerly gusts should be a little bit less pronounced. The bad news for our little Egg hunters is that we are now looking at a solid 50 percent chance of rain as an atmospheric disturbance moves overhead. Most of that should be light to moderate rain, and overall I expect accumulations of one-quarter inch of rain or less. However for areas north of Interstate 10, there is a slight chance of some stronger thunderstorms.

Next week

I now think there’s about a 50-50 chance that a modest front makes it to the coast on Sunday night or Monday morning. It’s still no sure thing, but if it happens we could see a brief spell of cooler and drier air for a couple of days. We’ll see. Most models are still indicating a rainier pattern next week, particularly in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. A couple of inches of rain would be welcome, from a trees and plants standpoint at least. When we have any confidence in the details, we’ll share them.

In brief: Last week we spoke about a brief reprieve in strong winds over the area. It now appears as though that reprieve will end on Thursday, with gusty winds returning through the weekend. The holiday weekend also looks fairly warm and humid, with a decent chance of light rain on Easter Sunday itself.

Tuesday

A weak front is moving into the area, bringing slightly cooler and drier air with it. As a result temperatures today will top out at about 80 degrees, with lower humidity. The front will briefly produce northwesterly winds, gusting perhaps to 15 or 20 mph. However, those winds will pretty quickly shift to come from the east. Skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon. Lows will fall to 60 to 65 degrees tonight in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland. This may not sound like much, but it will be our coldest night for at least the next week.

Wednesday

This will be a pleasant, sunny day with high temperatures of around 80 degrees. We should see southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts possibly, and this will be a harbinger for the return of higher humidity levels. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 60s.

Thursday and Friday

We will end the week will a pair of breezy, partly cloudy, and warm days. Highs on Thursday and Friday will climb into the mid- to upper-80s, with moderate humidity levels—which is to say dewpoints in the lower 60s, so a tad humid but not anything like Houston will feel later this summer. Strong winds are also back on the menu. Both days will be rather windy, with southerly gusts up to 30 mph or higher. Nights will be warm, in the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should also be windy and warm. An upper-level disturbance will approach the area, but it is not clear that it will get close enough to the Houston area to produce much rain. We can be confident in warm temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s on both days, with mostly cloudy skies. We’ll also continue to see those southerly gusts of up to 25 or 30 mph. As for rain, chances are probably less than 10 percent on Saturday, and in the vicinity 30 to 50 percent on Sunday. If it does rain on Easter Sunday, I think showers will be light for the most part. Organized thunderstorms appear unlikely in the Houston metro area.

Next week

A front will approach the area on Monday, but right now the majority of our modeling guidance suggests it will stall out north of Houston. That means we will probably be left in a warm and muggy pattern. The good news for our gardens and soils is that rain chances do look better next week, especially in the Wednesday time frame. However since that is more than a week away, I would not have the utmost confidence just yet.

In brief: A weak front tonight will bring some slightly drier air into the region, but for the most part this week will be characterized by days in the 80s with plenty of sunshine. Rainfall will remain scarce until the weekend, but a pattern change next week could improve our chances for wet stuff.

A dry spring

It has not rained much this spring. Although some coastal areas have soils characterized as “abnormally dry,” the Houston region is not in a drought. However, I have noticed a few of my neighbors putting out sprinklers of late. I had to double check my calendar to make sure we’re still in April, not June. And sure enough we are. Over the last 30 days, much of the Houston region has received only 25 to 50 percent of their normal rainfall for the year. While everything is still green, for now, the underlying soils in most areas are pretty dry.

When temperatures are in the 70s it takes a long time for dry soils to turn to parched soils. However, we are now seeing days in the 80s, with the sunshine reaching a higher angle in the sky. Accordingly to stave off drought we are going to need some precipitation. That’s not going to happen for much of this week, but if we look at the longer term forecast, there are some hits of a pattern change this weekend, and next week.

Monday

It is a warm morning, with much of the area near 70 degrees. Despite a few low-lying clouds this morning, I still expect mostly sunny skies this afternoon, with high temperatures reaching the mid- to upper-80s. With dewpoints in the lower 60s it will feel moderately humid. Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Expect another mild night, with lows in the 60s. Some time after a midnight, and it likely won’t be perceptible, a weak front will push into the Houston area.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The main effect of this front will be to bring some moderately drier air into the region. So Tuesday, and to some extent Wednesday, will feel a bit less humid. Tuesday may start out mostly cloudy as a result of the front, but I don’t expect much, if any rain with its passage. Expect high temperatures in the mid-80s, with lows on Tuesday night dropping into the low 60s for most of the region (it will be even cooler to the northeast of the city). Wednesday will bring highs in the low- to mid-80s but already winds will be turning to come from the southeast. So by the afternoon on Wednesday I expect humidity levels to be on the rise with fairly robust southeasterly winds.

Thursday and Friday

As a result, I expect the end of the week to be partly to mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper 80s. Some inland locations may reach 90 degrees. So all in all, pretty warm and humid for April. Lows will only fall to around 70 degrees. There will he the slightest chance of some showers by Friday or so, but most of us should remain dry.

Saturday and Easter Sunday

Saturday should bring more of the same: partly sunny, warm, and humid. Perhaps we’ll see a few stray showers. However at some point this weekend high pressure should shift away, and this will open us up to somewhat better rain chances. For now, I’ll say we have about a one-in-three chance of some showers on Easter Sunday, to go along with warm and humid conditions. It’s difficult to say much more than this with any precision but it’s something we’re watching.

Next week

Most of next weeks looks to remain fairly warm and somewhat humid. Think days in the mid- to upper-80s with nights around 70 degrees, give or take. The big thing I’m watching for is rain chances, especially in the absence of high pressure. The “bear” case is perhaps 1 inch of rain next week, but the “bull” case is several inches. Some of the AI-based weather models are on the bullish side, showing several inches of total rainfall next week. We’ll see. By that point, our soils will be happy for what we can get.

In brief: A weak front arrives in Houston this morning to drop humidity levels down for a couple of days. Beyond this, the region will see warm weather for the next 10 days, with sunny or mostly sunny skies. Really conditions won’t change much. If Houston’s weather were like this all of the time, Matt and I would be out of job. Or, in this case, a hobby. Have a great weekend!

Friday

Temperatures are in the low 60s this morning, and we are again going to have sunny skies today. What will be a little different is winds, which will shift to come from the northeast this morning at 5 to 10 mph. This is due to the passage of a weak front that will move offshore, bringing dewpoints down into the 40s for today and Saturday before the onshore flow brings them back up. Highs today will reach the mid- to upper-80s in Houston. Lows should drop into the mid- to upper-50s for most locations, and this will be our coolest night for some time.

Saturday and Sunday

This weekend looks to bring sunny weather into the Houston region should you have any outdoor plans. And really, you should. Look for highs in the low 80s with sunny skies on Saturday, and continued dry air. As light southerly winds return later in the day look for lows to only drop to around 60 degrees in Houston on Saturday night. Sunday will be a little less ideal, with southerly winds picking up to 10 to 15 mph, and it looks like we may see some gusts in the range of 25 mph. So expect higher humidity to go along with temperatures in the mid-80s. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-60s.

Next week

As Matt mentioned in yesterday’s post, next week’s weather looks to be more or less the same. Most days will bring highs in the 80s with nighttime temperatures in the 60s. We may push upwards toward 90 degrees by the end of the work week. Dewpoints are going to hover around the upper 50s to lower 60s which is a tad humid, but far from uncomfortable like we can see in Houston. Days should bring a few more clouds than this week, but we’re still going to see lots of sunshine. Rain chances look low until at least next weekend. Speaking of next weekend, I don’t yet have great confidence in the forecast for Easter Sunday, but highs in the 80s seem most likely. At this point, however, we cannot rule out a chance of showers.