If anything, next week should be a good deal hotter than this one

Good morning. Temperatures are moderately cooler this morning, with most of the region away from the coast seeing readings in the upper 60s. We’ll see one more slightly cooler night before July-like weather returns to the area this weekend. I apologize if we sound like a broken record, but we try to report things like they are, and the reality is that this unseasonably hot pattern is unlikely to change for the next 10 days. We are likely to set several high temperature records, as well as high minimums overnight.

Temperatures just before sunrise on Thursday morning. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

Skies will be mostly sunny today, with highs in the mid-80s. Winds will be fairly light, out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Due to the diminished onshore flow we can probably anticipate one more night with overnight lows falling into the upper 60s tonight for areas well away from the coast. It won’t feel “cool” by any means, but it will sure beat our lows next week which may be as much as 10 degrees warmer.

Friday

Expect mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s and southeasterly winds at 5 to 15 mph. Overnight lows will be a touch warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

On Saturday, rain chances with an associated disturbance in the upper atmosphere have decreased to the point where I’d probably put them at 10 percent for areas west of Interstate 45, and 20 percent for areas east. This means that, for the most part, Saturday should be sunny and hot, with highs in the mid-90s. Expect winds at 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts. Sunday will be the same, except the chance of rain will be near zero percent.

The outlook for next week is very, very hot. (Pivotal Weather)

Next week

Enjoy conditions this week, because next week high pressure is likely to tighten its grip even further on our region. We are talking highs in the mid- to upper-90s with overnight lows in the mid- to upper-70s for most of the region. Rain chances look to be close to nil until the weekend, at least. Some relief may finally come Sunday, May 22 or early the following week, but that’s at the end of the forecast window, so my confidence in conditions then is very low.

Hot and mostly sunny weather ahead, but at least skies should be clear for Sunday’s lunar eclipse

Good morning, Houston. The overall picture remains the same for Houston, with hot and mostly sunny weather ahead. We’ll see a pair a slightly drier nights on Wednesday and Thursday, and a low-ish chance of rain on Saturday, but mostly it is just going to feel like mid-summer in Houston.

The good news is that, with this pattern, we should see mostly clear skies on Sunday evening, when there will be a lunar eclipse. From 10:29 pm CT through 11:54 pm the Earth will move between the Sun and the Moon, casting a reddish light on our satellite. Such total eclipses of the Moon are relatively rare during the evening hours, so you should definitely check it out.

Timing for the lunar eclipse in Houston on Sunday evening. (Timeanddate.com)

Wednesday

High temperatures today will reach about 90 degrees for Houston, with slightly warmer temperatures possible for inland areas. Winds will blow out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph, with occasional gusts to 20 mph. A slight slackening in this southerly flow tonight will allow for tiny dip in temperatures and humidity tonight and Thursday morning, with lows falling to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Thursday

Look for hot and sunny weather, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Dewpoints “bottom out” on Thursday afternoon and evening, dropping into the low 60s. This won’t be much, but it will be something as you venture outside on Thursday evening. Lows Thursday night have a chance to drop into the upper 60s for parts of Houston.

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning. (Weather Bell)

Friday

Look for hot and mostly sunny weather, with light southerly winds, and highs likely in the mid-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

Most of the weekend looks hot, sunny, and humid with highs in the mid-90s. The exception to this will come on Saturday afternoon, evening, and overnight when the atmosphere is perturbed by some passing disturbances. For now I’ll go with a 20 percent chance of rain west of Interstate 45, and a 30 percent chance to the east. Accumulations will be slight, likely only a tenth of an inch of rain, or two.

Next week

I’m afraid there’s likely to not be much of a change in this overall pattern through much of next week, which looks downright hot for mid-May, with highs generally in the mid-90s. The next real chance of rain after this Saturday probably comes next weekend, in the May 21 to May 23 time frame, as high pressure continues to dominate the central United States. We’ll be on the lookout for a pattern change, but I’m afraid the middle of May in Houston is going to feel more like the middle of June or even July.

The song remains the same with regard to our hot forecast, so let’s discuss the four phases of summer

In my own mind I like to break summer in Houston into four phases. We can do this in Houston because “summer” season lasts so long, typically about five months. This is contrast to meteorological summer, which runs from June through August, and “solstice” summer, which runs from June 21 through September 22 this year. For me, Houston’s summer typically runs from about mid-May through mid-October. Here are the four phases:

  • Early summer: When we first start to see 90-degree temperatures with regularity, but some nights in the 60s are still possible, and there’s still the thinnest hope of a weak front
  • Mid summer: When highs run from 90 to 95 degrees, and nights are sultry, but you know it could still get worse
  • High summer: Somewhere between late July and early September there’s a period where temperatures reach the upper 90s to low 100s and you realize, “Ok, this really is the worst.”
  • Late summer: This is the period in September and early October when days grow shorter and we usually see the first front or two of the season. But most of the time it’s still hot.

This year, of course, Early Summer came about two weeks early. Here’s hoping Late Summer ends about two weeks early. But that’s not usually how things work, I’m afraid.

Tuesday

Today will be hot and sunny, with high temperatures around 90 degrees, or a touch warmer for inland areas. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s, only.

This is the most hopeful map I can share this week. It’s the low temperature forecast for Friday morning. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday and Thursday

These days will also be hot, with daytime temperatures in the low 90s. But as high pressure shifts a little bit overhead, it will essentially weaken our southerly flow. This will diminish winds and very slightly turn down the spigot of humidity. So overnight temperatures may drop into the upper 60s for inland areas on Wednesday and Thursday nights, with slightly less daytime humidity. It isn’t much, but it’s something.

Friday

Look for highs in the low 90s with mostly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re still looking at very modest rain chances this weekend, primarily on Saturday and Saturday night. However I’d say the chance for most of Houston is probably about 20 percent, with areas east of Interstate 45 probably reaching 30 percent. Any accumulations look slight. Otherwise look for mostly sunny and hot days, with highs in the mid-90s.

And here’s a less hopeful map, the high temperature forecast for Sunday. (Weather Bell)

Next week’s big question

Is a pattern change coming to bring an end to this Early Summer heat wave next week?

Next week’s big answer

No.

Houston’s heat continues, with a slight mid-week downturn in humidity

After a hot weekend, with temperatures averaging about 10 degrees warmer than normal during early May, we’ll see a slight reprieve this week by Wednesday evening. But it will only be slight, and the latter part of this week looks to see continued hot weather. Our only foreseeable chance of rain will come next weekend, but I wouldn’t rate our chances at much higher than 30 percent right now.

Monday

To start the week we will see a continuation of conditions that prevailed over the weekend, which is to say mostly sunny weather with highs generally in the low-90s. Winds will continue to blow from the south, perhaps gusting to 20- or even 25-mph. Humidity will naturally be quite high as well. And overnight lows will not drop much below the mid-70s.

As we come into Wednesday, high pressure (deeper reds) will move almost directly over Houston. (Weather Bell).

Tuesday and Wednesday

This period will see more of the same weather, with highs in the low 90s, but this pattern will start to change by Wednesday afternoon or evening, as high pressure moves almost directly overhead. This will effectively put the brakes on the southerly flow, and help to bring a little bit more dry air into the region. We’re not talking anything crazy, but lows on Wednesday night should drop into the mid- to upper-60s for areas away from the coast.

Thursday morning’s low temperatures will be slightly cooler and drier. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

Both of these days will be hot, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. But some slightly lower dewpoints will make conditions feel a little bit less humid. Not much, mind you. But long-time residents will probably be able to detect a difference. Overnight lows should drop to around 70 degrees. Mornings and evenings will be fairly nice.

Saturday and Sunday

The outlook for the weekend calls for mostly sunny and hot weather, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. The only real question is whether a weak atmospheric disturbance will be able to provoke some showers on Saturday or Saturday night. Rain chances are probably highest to the east of Interstate 45, and even then are probably 30 percent or less. But it’s the most meaningful chance of rain we’re likely to see during at least the next 10 days, so it’s worth mentioning.

Next week

There’s not really much to suggest that our overall pattern will change much over the next 10 days, or longer. It will feel more like mid-June than mid-May, with temperatures generally in the low 90s. Summer, it seems, has decided to come early. Our luck.