Good morning. The humidity has come surging back this morning. Whereas yesterday at this time we had a relative humidity of 64% and a dewpoint in the 40s, this morning sees relative humidity at 93% and a dewpoint into the mid-60s. The dry, pleasant weather was nice for a day. We’ll now begin a somewhat unsettled period of weather through Monday, though probably without any real serious issues.

Today

Clouds this morning may actually produce some drizzle or light rain showers a little later this morning before things attempt to clear out a bit this afternoon. Inland areas, mainly north of I-10 could see an isolated downpour or thunderstorm this afternoon with daytime heating. It’s likely that many of you will not see that today, however. Look for highs in the 80s or upper 70s if clouds stubbornly hold on. Winds won’t be too terrible, but look for a 5 to 15 mph southerly breeze today.

Saturday

Temperatures tonight get held up because of clouds and a warming air mass, so look for Saturday to begin with 70s in most of the area. That head start should allow us to easily push deep into the 80s to near 90 degrees tomorrow afternoon with a bit of sun after morning clouds.

A shower can’t be entirely ruled out but most areas will stay dry. South winds of 5 to 10 mph will provide minimal relief.

Easter Sunday

South of I-10, Sunday’s forecast is actually pretty straightforward. Look for morning clouds and some sun with temperatures in the higher 80s away from the water. Along and north of I-10, the forecast gets trickier. A cold front approaches Sunday but it struggles to get much past I-35, well west of us. But ahead of that front, showers and storms will kick off Sunday afternoon. The best chance for that will be near College Station, but the chances in and around Houston are not zero. Basically, if you have outdoor holiday plans, just be flexible and understand that, while not likely, rain will be possible for a time, especially north and west of Houston.

Outside of shower chances, we’ll see highs again well into the 80s, if not low-90s for inland spots with enough sunshine.

Monday and Tuesday

The cold front will eventually get into our part of Texas on Monday bringing a chance of showers and storms. Honestly, modeling doesn’t look too impressive in terms of storm chances in Houston, but we’ll definitely call for a slight chance. That front basically dies out once it passes us, but that will still allow for cooler temperatures and lower humidity Monday and especially Tuesday. We’ll probably see 80 or so on Monday, followed by 70s and a breeze on Tuesday, with morning lows in the 50s.

If you’re attending the Astros home opener on Monday evening, it should be turning a bit more pleasant with temperatures in the 70s pre-game and 60s during the game. I believe rain chances will dictate whether or not the roof is open, and we will know more about that on Monday itself.

Rest of next week

Humidity and warmer temperatures come flooding back in for the mid to late week period. Strong onshore winds may develop Wednesday. We’ll see a return of 80s by day, 60s or warmer by night, and shower chances. These shower chances look minor each day right now, but we’ll get a better handle on which days will carry higher rain risk by Monday or Tuesday.

Meanwhile, have a wonderful holiday weekend!

Good morning. If you’re looking for a guaranteed day of drier air in Houston, today’s the day. After this humidity will return with a vengeance, and our prospects for a front early next week are hopeful but uncertain.

Thursday

In the wake of an overnight front, drier air is moving in to the region today. After morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, we’ll see high temperatures climb this afternoon to the low 80s. Winds, generally will be from the east at 10 to 15 mph. The cold front, however, lies just offshore and will start to return to the area this evening as a warm front. As a result we’ll start to see some increasing clouds tonight, with lows generally in the low- to mid-60s.

Friday

As moisture levels increase, we should see mostly cloudy skies on Friday. This could prompt some scattered, light showers by the late morning, or afternoon hours. Highs should top out at about 80 degrees given the cloud cover, with winds out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Lows Friday night probably won’t drop below 70 degrees.

Saturday

This will be a warm and humid day, with highs in the upper 80s and partly to mostly cloudy skies. It won’t quite feel like summer, but it will offer a preview of what’s coming. We can’t entirely rule out a few stray showers, but chances are likely in the 10 to 20 percent range.

Sunday

Easter Sunday will be a lot like Saturday. Highs will again push into the mid- to upper-80s with predominantly cloudy skies, but some sunshine should break through. The big question regarding Sunday and Sunday night concerns the next cold front. There still is not great agreement on whether it pushes all the way through Houston, and when. As a result, while its possible we could see some light rain on Sunday evening and overnight, it’s a big question mark.

Next week

Our weather for next week could bring highs in the 70s for a couple of days, with lows in the 50s, and drier air. Or we might stay in the 80s with only slightly drier air. I’d love to be able to offer you some clarity, but I don’t have any.

Good morning. A weak cold front is on schedule to move in late this afternoon and evening, possibly bringing some brief showers and thunderstorms. The dry air associated with this front will be long gone before the weekend, however.

Wednesday

Today will be a warm and humid affair for Houston, with southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 or possibly 30 mph. Highs will reach the mid-80s for most of the area, but may rise a little higher than this for western parts of the region. A cold front is on the way, however, and it will push into the area late this afternoon and this evening. It looks like a thin line of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may accompany the front, perhaps reaching downtown around 6 to 8 pm, and the coast an hour or two later. Low temperatures tonight will drop to around 60 degrees.

Thursday

This will be a pleasant, sunny day with high temperatures around 80 degrees. Winds will come from the northeast, perhaps gusting to 15 or 20 mph at times. As winds shift to come from the east overnight, lows Thursday night will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

The aforementioned cold front, which stalled over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, will lift back north across the region on Friday as a warm front. Effectively that means we’ll see a rapid rise of humidity, and increasing clouds, with highs likely somewhere in the low 80s. Winds will be light, out of the southeast. There’s a slight chance of rain as atmospheric moisture levels increase.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be partly sunny and quite warm, with highs likely in the mid- to upper-80s for most. Winds will be from the south, and there probably is about a 10 percent chance of a brief shower.

Sunday

Easter Sunday will also be warm, with much of the area likely seeing highs in the upper 80s to go along with partly sunny skies. Humidity levels will, of course, be soaring as well. Easter will be a heater, therefore. Winds will be out of the south, probably at 5 to 15 mph. Rain chances, again, are probably in the range of 10 percent.

Next week

We still lack clarity on the timing and strength of next week’s cold front. It certainly looks a lot less impressive than it did a few days ago, with much of the cold air now getting shunted off to the east, rather than diving due south into Texas. So Monday and Tuesday of next week should start to see some cooler and somewhat drier weather, but how cool, and how dry? I have zero confidence in predicting that right now.

Good morning. We’re watching the possibility of storms, which may or may not break through a capping inversion today and Wednesday. What we’re certain of is that it will continue to be warm and muggy, with highs in the 80s, before a splash of dry air arrives on Wednesday night. Easter weekend still looks warm and mostly sunny, for the most part.

Tuesday

Lows this morning have only fallen into the low 70s for much of the region, and we’ll continue to see a warm southerly flow today with highs in the low 80s and cloudy skies. Winds may gust from the south as high as 20 to 25 mph. There will be battle in the atmosphere between a handful of disturbances pushing through, and whether the moist air at the surface can rise high enough to combine with these systems to produce storm activity. The limiting factor is a layer of warmer air, aloft, that may prevent the moist surface air from lifting too high to feed thunderstorm development.

The most likely time period for the capping inversion to break will be this afternoon and early evening, in which case we might see briefly heavy rainfall, damaging winds, or hail. However the most likely scenario for most of us is probably gray skies, with light rain. Accumulations for most will probably range from 0 to 0.25 inch of rain. So storms will probably be the exception, rather than the norm. Lows tonight will only drop into the low 70s again.

Wednesday

The approach and passage of a weak front on Wednesday and Wednesday night will allow for another chance of rain, but again a capping inversion may inhibit most of this activity. As I don’t think the front will reach our area until later Wednesday, I expect highs in the 80s for Houston, with at times gusty southerly winds. Lows on Wednesday night should drop into the low 60s as moderately drier air moves into the region, likely penetrating all the way to the coast.

Thursday

This should be a mostly sunny day, with somewhat drier air leading to highs in the low 80s, and overnight lows probably dropping into the 60s again. So, pretty nice.

Friday

The onshore flow resumes pretty quickly, so we can expect a mix of sunshine and clouds on Friday, with highs in the 80s, and increasing humidity levels.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast calls for a mix of clouds and sunshine. While we can’t rule out some scattered showers, overall chances are low and I’m reasonably confident things will stay dry. Temperatures will depend on the extent of cloud cover over our region, but I think we’ll probably get into the mid- or even upper-80s. So Easter Sunday could end up feeling fairly sultry—we’re thinking this could be a Stage 3 or even Stage 4 type event for melting chocolate.

Next week

A cold front is still in the cards for next Monday or Tuesday, but the strength of it, and how much of the cold air that will funnel into the United States drops all the way down to the Texas Gulf coast, remains in question. Lows in the 50s remain the most likely possibility, but we shall see.