Well, I was hopeful that maybe we could identify a period over the next several days that didn’t look unsettled. While it isn’t going to rain everywhere the entire weekend, the chance of rain is going to be higher than usual everywhere from tonight through Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. We will walk you through things as best we can today, and we’ll conclude our Friday post with an update on Tropical Storm Elsa.

How much rain through next week?

We’ll start off today’s post by addressing the question most people probably have: How much rain are we expecting, and will it flood? Rainfall totals are going to vary widely from location to location, but we’re confident that most places should 2 to 4 inches through Wednesday. That said, given significant amounts of atmospheric moisture (high precipitable water, or PWATs), any storms will be capable of producing 1 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates. So it’s pretty obvious that some locations will see a good bit more than 4 inches over the coming days. Where exactly those locations are is to be determined.

But as you can see from the map above, the current bullseye is just east of Houston. For those curious, the European model has its bullseye over the Sabine River, and the GFS does not really have a bullseye. But most models are in good agreement with this forecast above. You can expect a good bit of rain in the coming days.

Will it flood? This question is somewhat thornier. At this point we don’t expect significant flooding, but the reality is that we can’t rule out things getting a little dicey in spots at times. Even though there will likely be street flooding in spots at times, we are not yet going to trigger the Space City Weather Flood Scale. I do think at some point between now and Wednesday we are going to have to give in with a Stage 1 or 2 type event possible. Things can change, so stay with us through the holiday weekend, and make sure you have downloaded our app!

Today

Friday is going to start off fine. Look for sunshine and a few clouds. Today will probably be pretty hot, with highs in the mid-90s likely. I wouldn’t expect much worse than a couple hit or miss showers through 3 PM at this point. After 3 PM, a cold front begins to sag south into northern parts of the area, and we should see more organized storms break out along or north of Highway 105, dropping into Hempstead, Magnolia, The Woodlands, and Liberty this evening.

Tonight & Saturday

Those storms will continue pressing south after dark, reaching I-10 around or just before midnight, although they could weaken some. A few additional scattered storms will be possible overnight.

On Saturday, we get a surge of moisture (near-record PWATs for the date) that should allow for numerous showers and storms to break out across the region. I would expect a bit of atmospheric “bumper cars” to ensue tomorrow as boundaries collide, popping off new storms across the area in a chain reaction of sorts.

Showers could push or focus south of Houston tomorrow late day or evening.

Temperatures will be held down with clouds and rain. Look for lows in the 70s and highs in the mid-80s.

Sunday

Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout Independence Day, with locally heavy rain possible. Highs will be in the 80s.

What to do about fireworks displays? Well, I wouldn’t be cancelling anything just yet. We are certainly talking up a wet weekend here, and the cancellation option is a very plausible one in some places. That said, there is a good chance that some parts of the area will be just fine for fireworks displays, albeit with some soggy ground to watch from. That decision should be as close to a game time one as possible.

Monday & Tuesday

It’s a bit of a tough call as to which day from Saturday through Wednesday has the best chance for the heaviest rain, but if I were a betting man, I might lay a few chips on Monday or Tuesday. We get a boost in moisture on those days, especially Tuesday and some pretty vigorous upper level support for rain too. Not everyone will see their heaviest rain early next week, but I think some people will, and this is where I would begin to perhaps be more mindful of flash flooding risks.

High temperatures will be held down here. Look for mid-80s at best (probably low-80s or even cooler in spots) for highs and 70s for lows.

Wednesday & Thursday

For the middle of next week, we currently expect to see things begin to wind down a bit. Expect scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday, but we are hopeful that the coverage will be noticeably less than it was on Monday and Tuesday. By Thursday, much will depend on what Tropical Storm Elsa does, but assuming it stays well east of us as forecast, we would probably just see sun, clouds, some isolated to scattered storms (unrelated to Elsa) and slightly warmer temperatures. We’ll see. But it appears that the pattern may begin to change back to a more typical summer one by late next week.

Tropical Storm Elsa

(Editor’s Note: Elsa was upgraded to a hurricane immediately after publication) Elsa did some work overnight getting better organized as it approaches Barbados and the southern Leeward Islands today. Max winds are now 60 mph, and although the National Hurricane Center forecast currently falls just short of Elsa becoming the season’s first hurricane, there is some chance it could attain that intensity.

The forecast right now is officially comfortably east of our area, with a focus on Florida by Wednesday or Thursday of next week. There is still a very wide spread of options available to Elsa beyond day 3 or so, meaning that folks from Central Louisiana through the Bahamas, including all of Florida should still be monitoring Elsa’s progress closely. We continue to think this won’t be a direct issue for Texas, but we will monitor its progress and any track forecast changes through the weekend anyway.

Well, Houston, we’ve made it to July. Historically, the next two months are the hottest of the year. And we’ll certainly be in the 90s the next couple of days. But our bigger concern in the forecast period will be triggered by a cold front of all things, which won’t bring cold air but will initiate a wet period beginning Friday night. There’s also a newly formed tropical system, Elsa, bound for the Caribbean Sea that we’ll discuss.

Thursday

Today should bring mostly sunny skies for the region, and this will nudge high temperatures into the low 90s. A few showers may pop up this afternoon, along the sea breeze. The most likely focus for any storms will be south of Interstate 10, and anything that forms should be fairly short lived. Rain chances will slacken considerably as evening comes upon us. Winds will be very light most of the day, from the east. Nighttime temperatures will drop into the mid-70s.

Friday

Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the mid-90s and lots of sunshine. Again, we could see some scattered showers along the sea breeze, but I think most of us will not see rainfall. This may begin to change on Friday evening or overnight, as the aforementioned front begins to generate shower activity.

Saturday and Sunday

The holiday weekend looks fairly wet, I’m afraid. The stalling front, in concert with quite high atmospheric moisture levels moving in from the Gulf of Mexico, will open up our region to periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Both Saturday and Sunday should see mostly cloudy skies, with highs in the upper 80s. I expect accumulations of 1 to 2 inches of rain for much of the area, but we may see higher bullseyes and this is our concern. This may put a damper on fireworks activities, or we may get a break on Sunday evening from showers, we just don’t know yet.

Next week

The first half of next week, at least, will see elevated rain chances above 50 percent each day. Given the setup, some localized areas may eventually find themselves in a situation prone to flooding—after having accumulated several inches of rainfall. Matt and I will be covering this over the weekend, if necessary, and may eventually need to issue at least a Stage 1 flood alert given the overall potential for heavy rainfall to continue into next Wednesday or Thursday. Bottom line? Enjoy the sunshine today and Friday before the holiday weekend brings us into a much wetter period.

Tropical Storm Elsa

Far from being frozen, the tropics are continuing to remain active with the formation of Tropical Storm Elsa in the Atlantic Ocean. Elsa is moving rapidly westward, and will enter the Caribbean Sea on Friday, and approach Hispaniola or Cuba by Saturday. Due to this forward motion, I think Elsa will struggle to maintain its organization—it’s difficult for storms to maintain a consistent vertical profile, or essentially not become lopsided the faster they move. For this reason, there is a lot of uncertainty with the intensity forecast over the next five days.

As for where Elsa ends up, anywhere from the eastern Gulf of Mexico, to Florida, to east of the Florida peninsula is possible next week. Texas is unlikely to see any winds from Elsa, but the overall setup may generate additional moisture later next week. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Good morning. Before jumping in to the forecast, which should be a little bit drier in the days ahead before a wet weekend, I wanted to share a couple of housekeeping notes.

• I recently joined the popular Houston Moms blog to discuss hurricane season and preparedness. You can watch parts one and two of the video.
• Michael Hardy wrote a profile of me and Space City Weather for Texas Monthly that was published on Tuesday. It provides a great overview of why I got into this business, and the philosophy Matt and I have toward communicating weather information.

Wednesday

The Houston area radar is more calm this morning, but I still anticipate scattered to widespread shower activity to develop later today. Rain is most likely south of Interstate 10 this morning before spreading further inland this afternoon. With less moisture available, I think most of Houston will see 0 to 0.5 inch of rain today, but we could see a few bullseyes of 1 to 2 inches closer to the coast. Winds will be light out of the east, and with partly sunny skies high temperatures should reach 90 degrees, or the low 90s, later today.

Thursday and Friday

If we’re going to see lots of sunshine, and lower rain chances, these are the days this week. That’s not to say it won’t rain in Houston on Thursday and Friday, but most of us probably won’t see any rain, or if we do, accumulations should not go beyond a tenth of an inch or so. As a result, these days will be warmer, with highs in the low to mid-90s. Enjoy the sunshine, because the pattern will turn stormier this weekend.

Saturday and Sunday

By Friday night or Saturday morning, a weak cool front—no, it won’t bring much in the way of cooling—will approach and likely stall over our region. The effect of this will be to draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico inland, and set up the potential for slow-moving showers. The details remain to be worked out, but we can probably expect accumulations of 1 to 3 inches this weekend, with higher isolated totals. Rain chances will be decent overnight as well, so I would not feel entirely confident about fireworks chances on July Fourth. Highs will be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. The bottom line: If you have outdoor plans this weekend, have an indoor backup plan.

Next week

The stalled front should remain in the vicinity of Houston through about Monday, but the atmosphere remains unsettled after this. If anything the potential for rain increases from Monday through about Wednesday, and overall I think our region may see on the order of 5 to 7 inches of rain from now through the middle of next week, if not more. Again, the details on this are to come, but it’s something we’ll be covering closely. Conditions may finally turn sunnier and hotter by Thursday or Friday, but no promises from us.

Tropics

Matt provided a good rundown of the tropics on Tuesday, and we’re continuing to watch the development of Invest 97L. This morning, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded its chance of becoming a tropical storm or depression within the next five days to 80 percent.

The most likely scenario remains that this system eventually succumbs to a hostile environment in the Caribbean Sea this weekend, but we can’t rule out something making it into the Gulf of Mexico next week. For now, my money is on Invest 97L petering out, but we’ll continue to track it for you.

Welcome to another edition of our weekly tropical outlook. The last two hurricane seasons have been full of many quick developing, lower-end storms. Some folks deride the National Hurricane Center for “wasting time” naming these things, but if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, whether bloated, thin, short, tall, round, square, or what, it’s still a duck. And that’s why we have added another storm since last week.

If you blinked, you might have missed Tropical Storm Danny yesterday, but it formed off the coast of South Carolina, made landfall and weakened to a depression within about 12 to 18 hours. It wasn’t quite like Imelda, and its fast forward motion will keep it from becoming a Carolina or Georgia version of Imelda, but it went quickly, and it came from an area I didn’t even mention a week ago. So go the tropics.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

While there is one area in the Atlantic for us to monitor, it will likely face an uphill battle to make it to the Gulf in a position to develop any more significantly.

Invest 95L

The area people have been watching a good bit since last week is Invest 95L, which today does not pose much risk of making it to the Gulf. It will likely either stay disorganized and continue across the Caribbean (where it will face mountains of shear) or it will develop a little and get pulled north toward the Bahamas, Florida, or Eastern Gulf. Colloquially, some of us in meteorology will use the phrase “weaker, wester” to describe these things. It seems highly unlikely that 95L makes it to Houston. The National Hurricane Center has just lowered odds of development risk on 95L to 30 percent over the next 5 days.

Invest 97L

The one area I want to focus on is the new Invest 97L, which now has a 40 percent chance of developing over the next 5 days according to the National Hurricane Center (up from 20 percent this morning).

As you can see on satellite above, Invest 97L has some loose thunderstorm activity, but it is not yet organized. The one thing about Tropical Storm Danny: Say what you will about it being “pathetic” or whatever, but at least it had that swirly cinnamon bun look going for it yesterday. 97L is not there yet.

Invest 97L will be steered west or west-northwest around the periphery of high pressure in the Atlantic. Both key operational models, the Euro and GFS tend to buy into Invest 97L developing over the next three days. However, they differ significantly on *how* much development occurs. I’ve plotted the GFS and European models below, showing you what we call 850 mb vorticity. What? That’s a good map to look at to gauge where things stand with potential development risk. And you can indeed see both the GFS & Euro show ample “spin” (yellow & orange) and low pressure near the entrance to the Caribbean on Friday morning, with the Euro on the left and the GFS on the right.

The difference is that the GFS is far, far more aggressive in organizing Invest 97L over the next 3 days. Why does this matter? Because the GFS has been the only model showing this coming to the Gulf as a significant storm. If it’s unrealistically strong 3 days from now, that doesn’t bode well for its accuracy on days 7 to 10. So right now, using context clues, there is a good shot we see the potential for a tropical depression or storm approaching the southern Lesser Antilles by the end of this week.

From there, this will have a mountain to overcome. The Caribbean is full of shear, and any system will not be greeted by favorable conditions on the other side of the islands. While the GFS keeps this going somewhat across the Caribbean, the Euro rips it to shreds. Neither model’s ensemble is particularly bullish on this system’s future either. So sitting here on Tuesday, I find it difficult to think that Invest 97L will make it to Texas as an organized tropical entity.

That said, the weather pattern over Texas is likely to say fairly cool and wet for most of the next 2 weeks. It gets tough to think that a tropical system makes it here as an organized system, but a bigger risk could be that the moisture gets here and exacerbates an already wet Texas.

That’s a wet Texas to say the least. So the bottom line is that we’ll want to sort of watch this system for its moisture. But at least at this point there’s no reason to think it’s going to become a problem for us, and I can’t point you to any reliable, outlier model guidance that says it will. We will let you know if that were to change.

Beyond this, expect a quieter tropics for a little while, as the atmospheric background signals (what we often call the “intraseasonal phase” of the atmosphere) is fairly suppressed over the Atlantic basin, meaning it will inhibit storm formation. That doesn’t mean we won’t see a storm or two, but in general, storm development risk should be lower than it has been. This could allow for our first significant Saharan dust event of the summer as well sometime in mid-July. We will see.