It is such a lovely day across the Houston region today it’s difficult to imagine unpleasant weather. But we’ve got plenty of that on tap for the week ahead, so we’re jumping in with a Sunday post to keep you in the loop.

Monday’s rains

We continue to expect that a low-pressure system will produce widespread rainfall across the Houston region on Monday, generally from the late-morning hours through around midnight. Rainfall amounts are going to vary widely with this system, as some areas pick up less than one-half inch of rain, and other locations 2 to 4 inches, if not a bit more. Because these rains have the potential to produce some nuisance street flooding, we think it’s worth instituting a Stage 1 Flood Alert. This will primarily affect areas south of Interstate 10, and west of Interstate 45.

Generally, the closer to the coast you live, and the further west of Houston, the more likely you are to see heavy rainfall. The good news is that we don’t anticipate any severe weather beyond heavy rainfall on Monday, so tornadoes or strong winds are unlikely. These rains should end over night with partly sunny skies on Tuesday.

Mid-week freeze

The next event on our radar—if you thought I was going to spare you weather puns because of the Sabbath, you thought wrong—is a cold front that will arrive on Wednesday night. Some additional rain showers may well accompany this front, but I think our atmosphere will dry out before the coldest air arrives. This should preclude any wintry precipitation for the Houston metro area, but I’m not ready to entirely rule that out yet.

The bigger story will be colder air, with low temperatures likely dropping into the 20s for Houston on Thursday and Friday nights. Even Galveston Island may see a light freeze on Thursday night. These temperatures should be about 10 degrees warmer than the region experienced during the freeze last February, but it will nonetheless be quite cold. As we get closer, we’ll be able to fine tune the temperature forecast.

Still more significant impacts are likely for inland parts of the state this week, particularly the Dallas area. Beginning late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, snow and ice are likely for the Metroplex. Low temperatures on Thursday night probably will get into the teens. So if your plans take you north of Houston this week, roads and more could be mess.

If you’re wondering what this means for the Texas power grid, the answer is I don’t know. We’re not going to see the cold extremes we saw in 2021, but it will still be plenty cold across the entire state.

More tomorrow.

So, if you were looking for a nice weekend, you will get your wish. The weather this weekend looks great: Sunshine, comfortable afternoons, and not too much wind. We will enter a more active weather pattern next week with a number of things to talk about, none super serious but a few you will want to be mindful of moving ahead.

Today

We have a weak cold front sneaking through this morning, which has led to some showers, primarily south of Houston, toward Wharton and Matagorda Counties. So you may get some showers down there. The rest of us will see clouds slowly clear out this morning, leading to a sunny afternoon. It will feel a little cooler today with generally mid-50s and a breeze.

Saturday & Sunday

As noted above, both days look great with sunshine and just a few clouds. We’ll warm from the 30s to around 60 degrees on Saturday, and then we’ll go from 40 or so into the mid-60s on Sunday. Just splendid.

Monday

The first hurdle for next week comes on Monday. Modeling has been in pretty good agreement on a rather vigorous little disturbance swinging through the region with a period of rain for a good chunk of the area beginning in the mid to late morning and ending sometime Monday evening. I will definitely mention the chance of thunderstorms here as well. At this point, widespread severe weather isn’t expected with this disturbance, but I think we should watch Monday for at least the chance of a few stronger storms especially south of Houston. We’ll update you Monday morning with the latest.

On average, I’d expect an inch or so on Monday, particularly from I-10 southward. There will likely be areas of higher amounts up to 3 inches or so, again especially to the south of Houston. Areas north of Houston may see a bit less, depending on the exact track this disturbance takes.

Outside of Monday’s rain, it will be a touch milder with morning lows around 50 or in the 50s and daytime highs in the 60s.

Tuesday & Wednesday

Behind Monday’s storm, we should calm down on Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Look for clouds, some sun, and perhaps a shower chance. We have a shot at 70 degrees on both days, and depending on the exact timing of the next front, it could push well into the 70s on Wednesday. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s. As warm, humid air starts to return, expect the Gulf fog machine to try and turn back on for the first time in awhile, so we could have some gloomy mornings with low visibility.

Late next week

Our next front is timed out to late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Expect showers and thunderstorms as this pushes through, with another widespread rainfall possible. As Eric has noted, the air behind this front is going to pack a little punch. Expect windy and colder conditions Thursday and a decent chance at a freeze on both Friday and Saturday morning and possibly Sunday morning as well. It’s a little too early to get too specific, but at the very least, I think we should be expecting a freeze similar to what we’ve already seen this winter, with risk for temps a couple degrees colder than that.

If you look at the various ensemble model guidance, there is a range of morning lows from the low-20s to mid-30s next weekend, meaning there’s still a lot of uncertainty here on specifics. But I think it’s safe to plan on mid to upper-20s for a few mornings for now, and we’ll adjust up or down next week as needed. The good news is that daytime highs look to be generally in the 40s, if not low-50s, so we will warm well above freezing each day. We will keep you posted on this, but just to be clear, while cold, this doesn’t appear to be a repeat of last February.

Good morning. Houston will see lots of sunshine and cooler weather over the next four days before some clouds, warmer air, and pretty healthy rain chances move into the picture early next week. After a few warmer, wetter days it appears likely that a strong cold front will arrive on Wednesday to bring us very much back into winter-like conditions. A freeze seems probable late next week.

Thursday

Today will bring pleasant weather, with light northeasterly winds and mostly sunny skies. We can expect high temperatures to reach about 60 degrees for most area. Low temperatures tonight will generally drop into the upper 40s as a reinforcing front arrives. Some very light precipitation is possible overnight as the front moves through, but the more noticeable impact should be gusty northerly winds.

Friday

Those winds will build through the morning, perhaps gusting to 20 or 25 mph during the early afternoon hours as they peak. With the influx of drier air we should see clouds eroding during the morning hours, with lots of sunshine by the afternoon. Highs will only reach the mid-50s, however, and as night falls and the wind drops, air temperatures will plummet into the 30s in Houston, with a light freeze possible for inland areas.

Saturday

This will be sunny and chilly winter day. Expect highs in the upper 50s to 60 degrees, with light northerly winds. Low temperatures Saturday night should be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than Friday night.

Sunday

This will be another sunny day, although a few clouds may form during the afternoon or evening hours as winds turn to come from the southeast. Expect highs to reach the mid- to upper-60s, with lows dropping to somewhere in the vicinity of 50 degrees on Sunday night.

Next week

A series of upper-level disturbances will move through the area, and as the atmosphere moistens with the onshore flow we’ll see rising rain chances. I think most of our region will probably see 1 to 3 inches through Wednesday, with high temperatures in the range of 70 degrees.

A front looks set to arrive on Wednesday, bringing some of the coldest weather of the season. It’s too early to have any confidence in the forecast, but most of the region will probably see some sort of a freeze. To be clear, there is zero support for a freeze like we experienced in February 2021. It just looks like a pretty good cold spell. Details, as always, to come.

In the wake of Tuesday’s cold front, Houston will now see a period of chilly days with partly to mostly sunny skies through the weekend. Clouds, some humidity, and rain chances return on Monday. All in all, it will feel a lot like winter in Houston.

Wednesday

Winds are blowing out of the north this morning at 10 to 15 mph from the northeast and this influx of cooler air should continue for most of today, limiting high temperatures in the mid-50s despite the presence of sunny skies. A few clouds will develop overnight, but temperatures should still drop to around 40 degrees in Houston as winds slacken somewhat.

Thursday

Some clouds will work their way into the region on Thursday ahead of the next cold front, so expect partly sunny skies during the morning, and grayer conditions as we get toward evening. Highs should reach the upper 50s for most locations, with light northeasterly winds. Overnight lows will drop into the low- to mid-40s. Some light rain is possible Thursday night as the front passes through early Friday morning.

Friday

Skies should begin to clear out in the wake of the front, but even with the sunny skies temperatures will crest in the mid- to upper-50s. This will be a somewhat chilly day, with winds gusting out of the north at or above 20 mph during the daytime. Lows Friday night will drop into the 30s in Houston, and a light freeze is possible for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks tremendous for late January, with mostly sunny skies and cool, dry air. Look for highs near 60 degrees on Saturday, with overnight lows dropping to around 40 degrees, and highs in the upper 60s on Sunday.

Next week

As the onshore flow returns, look for increasing atmospheric moisture levels to spark a decent chance of rain through about Wednesday. Highs should eventually climb back into the low 70s before a front late on Tuesday or some time Wednesday brings more chilly weather back into the picture, with nights perhaps dropping back down to around 40 degrees. Look for rainfall accumulations of perhaps 1 inch next week, give or take.