In brief: Houston will see pleasant weather through Saturday before humidity surges back with a breeze on Sunday. A narrow line of thunderstorms accompanies a cold front on Monday, but the truly cool to cold air will lag behind by a day or so, arriving Tuesday night. By Wednesday, we may limp into the mid-60s for highs. It will feel like autumn.

Just a quick reminder to folks that our fundraiser kicked off yesterday! We are grateful for whatever support you are able and willing to provide, and thank you to those that pitched in on day one! I have to admit that astronaut t-shirt is <chef’s kiss>. Thank you so much again!

Today

It has not been as cool as it was yesterday morning and this morning in three or four weeks. Whatever the case, temperatures are generally in the 50s this morning once more.

We’ll see highs punch up into the mid-70s this afternoon. A light jacket should do this morning if that’s your thing. Overall, today looks wonderful.

Friday and Saturday

Tonight should be even a bit cooler than we’re seeing this morning. Look for lows down to near 50 degrees in Houston which means 40s in many suburbs and outlying areas. Highs will poke into the mid-70s again tomorrow, followed by mid-50s for lows and upper-70s for highs on Saturday. Both days look mainly sunny.

Sunday

Humidity will slowly return on Saturday, but you won’t really notice it until Sunday. You will also notice the wind on Sunday. Onshore winds pick up, gusting at times to 25 mph or so, perhaps even a little stronger over the water. Morning lows Sunday will start off in the 60s to near 70, warming up into the 80s for highs.

Monday through Wednesday

The forecast gets a little trickier next week, particularly trying to time everything out. A cool front is going to likely crash through the area Monday. It’s still too soon to say what it will bring, but the model signals seem to be hinting at a broken line of thunderstorms or a very narrow line of heavy showers and gusty winds. I wouldn’t entirely rule out some severe weather Monday, but it’s not the most likely outcome right now. We’ll keep an eye on things.

In terms of temperatures, it gets a little wonkier. The coldest air will lag the front by a day or two. So with the front crossing Monday, look for lows back into the 60s Monday night. Tuesday will be warm, and it should be a bit less humid. High temperatures will be well into the 70s to near 80 degrees. Then on Tuesday night, our first dose of colder air arrives, knocking us back into the mid-50s. And on Wednesday, even with oodles of sunshine, we will probably only do mid-60s at best. We’ll likely follow that with 40s Wednesday night and some wind to make it feel even colder. We may do 60s and 40s for a few days in a row, so it will feel more fall-like about a week before Thanksgiving.

Tropics

There remain no concerns from Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 (likely Sara later today) for Texas. Fronts will keep us safe. But PTC 19 is going to deliver some pretty rough weather to Central America, particularly in coastal Honduras, where upwards of 20 inches of rain is possible.

If you have trips planned or family back in these areas, keep an eye on Sara once it forms. There will likely be serious flooding in portions of Honduras, and if the storm wobbles offshore longer, they could also be dealing with a hurricane down there. Eventually this turns north toward the Yucatan, probably late in the weekend. It will then get caught up in the big cold front next week and kicked toward Florida. If there is good news, the odds of a major hurricane striking Florida are quite low now. Look for more at our companion site, The Eyewall in a bit.

In brief: Today’s post discusses the strong cold front in the cards less than a week from today, as well as what to expect before then. We also take a peek at the tropics, where a major hurricane could form in the Caribbean. It’s no threat to Texas, but even so, it’s mid-November. And finally, we’re launching our annual fundraiser. Buy merch! Support us!

Launch of annual fundraiser

This is a big morning for us, as we’re launching our annual fundraiser. I don’t like to ask for money, but it costs a lot to operate a website; develop, update, and support an app; and pay for all of our other activities. And we don’t do this often, just for a few weeks in November each year. This is your opportunity to directly support our hard work, and efforts to provide accurate information, without hype, to the greater Houston region. If you don’t have extra money, please do not feel pressure to give. But if you can help, we’d greatly appreciate it. You’re ensuring our work is freely available to all.

Click here to find how to donate or purchase items to support Space City Weather.

Wednesday

Most of Houston has fallen into the upper 50s or lower 60s this morning. With moderate humidity levels, we will see highs push into the low- to mid-80s this afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny, with light westerly winds. By this evening we’ll see the arrival of a cool front that will usher in drier air from the northwest. No rain is expected with the front. This will help low temperatures drop into the 50s overnight.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of fine, sunny days with high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s, and sunny skies. With dewpoints in the 40s, it really will not feel humid at all. Lows will bottom out on Thursday night, with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s for outlying areas, and lower 50s in central Houston by Friday morning—so pretty chilly. Friday night is a bit warmer, but temperatures should still drop well into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

As the onshore flow resumes we’ll see a few clouds on Saturday, and partly cloudy skies on Sunday. Highs for the first half of the weekend will reach the upper 70s, and top out at about 80 degrees by Sunday. Humidity levels will be on the rise, but not oppressively so. There will still be a bit of a chill in the air on Saturday night, but it will be long gone by Sunday night. A few light showers will be possible by Sunday evening, but I think rain will hold off for the most part until early Monday.

Next week

Monday and Monday night will be warm and muggy, with a pretty good chance of light showers. (Don’t expect much in the way of accumulations beyond a few tenths of an inch of rain). Some time on Tuesday, most likely, a fairly strong fronts will push into Houston. It’s still too early to have details on the precise timing, but all available evidence points to a fairly robust front with a strong northerly flow behind it.

It would not shock me to see a few nights in the 40s during the second half of next week, with daytime highs in the 60s. This really will be sweater weather, and our first real indication this season that winter is around the corner. As a bonus, it seems unlikely that we’re going to bounce back up into the 80s a few days after the front. The overall pattern looks to remain cooler, and more seasonable.

Tropics

I want to be clear: the tropical system developing in the Caribbean Sea is no threat to Texas whatsoever. However it appears increasingly likely that a (relatively rare) November hurricane will develop in the Caribbean Sea this weekend, which is likely to bring significant rainfall to parts of Central America. Much of our modeling guidance suggests it will become a major hurricane.

Long term this storm could move into the southern Gulf of Mexico before perhaps turning toward Florida in several days—although there’s plenty of uncertainty about what happens next week. We have a lot of time to watch it, and that’s just what we’re doing on The Eyewall.

In brief: Today’s update discusses a decent front in the cards for Wednesday which will bring a nice cooldown, and then looks at a warmer setup for this weekend. Overall, things look pretty calm. We also talk about Matt’s new job.

A few words on Matt’s new job

In addition to working on Space City Weather, both Matt and I have day jobs. I write about space for Ars Technica, and for the last decade Matt has been a meteorologist for Cheniere Energy. On Monday, Matt announced that he was changing jobs, and we wanted to explain what the change means for Space City Weather. The short version is, nothing.

The longer version is that Matt is starting a new position as Manager of Meteorology at CenterPoint Energy. We see this is as a win-win for readers. Why? Because Matt is still going to be free to do all of this regular forecasting for Space City Weather and The Eyewall. CenterPoint recognizes that these sites are an important part of Matt’s life, and this was a condition of his taking the job. Moreover CenterPoint (and by extension, the greater Houston area) will benefit from his expertise. Basically, better forecasting should mean that CenterPoint is better prepared for inclement weather events.

Nothing changes here. Space City Weather has been sponsored exclusively by Reliant for more than seven years now, and that partnership will continue. As always, Reliant has a completely hands-off policy when it comes to editorial content here. (They’ve been tremendous about that). And Matt’s position at CenterPoint will not influence the site’s coverage during severe weather and power outages. Anyway, we just wanted to be transparent with our readers. I have only one real editor on this site, and I’m married to her.

Finally, we both want to thank Cheniere for their support of Matt’s work with the sites during his time there.

Tuesday

It’s a cooler morning, with most of the area in the upper 50s to lower 60s thanks to a northerly flow. Today will be sunny and pleasant, with high temperatures of about 80 degrees, and lower humidity. Winds will generally be light, from the northeast. Low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight, with most of the area dropping into the lower 60s.

Wednesday

As the onshore flow picks up, we’ll see a slightly warmer day with a tinge more humidity. Expect highs in the low- to mid-80s, with mostly sunny skies. A front will arrive on Wednesday afternoon, but I don’t think there will be enough moisture in the atmosphere to support more than very isolated showers. Lows drop to around 60 degrees overnight as the front pushes in.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work will feel fine and fall-like, with sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the mid-70s. Drier air will knock humidity away. Both nights should get into the 50s in Houston, with some inland areas falling into the upper 40s on Friday morning. Skies will be clear day and night.

Saturday and Sunday

The onshore flow will be back for the weekend, which means the return of some humidity, and probably at least some partly cloudy skies. Highs both days will reach about 80 degrees, or perhaps a tick higher, with mild nights in the 60s. Rain chances are virtually zero on Saturday, and perhaps 10 to 20 percent on Sunday when there is more moisture in the atmosphere to work with.

Next week

The early part of next week will see continued warmer weather, with highs generally in the low-80s, along with a 20 or 30 percent chance of daily showers. A significant pattern change looks to be in the cards by mid-week, however, when a stronger fall front arrives with possibly some sticking power. We’ll discuss this more tomorrow, when we should have more confidence in the forecast. But I’m hopeful.

In brief: Houston will see calm weather this week, with highs in the 70s and 80s, and some marginally cooler nights. If you’re looking ahead to the weekend, you can be pretty sure we’re going to see a warm and fairly humid pattern, with some slight rain chances. It definitely won’t feel like we’re heading toward Thanksgiving.

A thank you to Veterans everywhere

Today is Veterans Day, a federal holiday to honor everyone who has served in the US Armed Forces. This includes my dad and father-in-law—both of whom served in Vietnam and bore scars as a result—and several uncles. We take freedom for granted as Americans, but as one looks around the world, it is clear that there is no human right to our freedoms of expression, assembly, press, and more. We must continue to guard them, and those who serve in the armed forces are on the front line. So, thank you. If you’re participating in a Veterans Day ceremony today there are no weather concerns, even today’s highs in the lower 80s should feel fine with slightly lower humidity.

Monday

We’re seeing a drier, northerly flow this morning and it has helped to push low temperatures down into the low- to mid-60s for much of the region. We’ll see mostly sunny skies for much of today, and this will boost high temperatures into the lower 80s. As noted above, however, with a modicum of drier air it won’t feel super humid outside. Winds will be light, from the north or northeast. Lows tonight will drop to about 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Tuesday

Expect another sunny day, with highs of around 80 degrees. As the onshore flow resumes later in the day we’ll see a slightly warmer night, with lows in the mid-60s.

Wednesday

This day will be a little more humid, with at least partly cloudy skies, and high temperatures likely slotting in the mid-80s. We cannot entirely rule out rain chances, but they’re likely only on the order of 10 percent or so. Lows on Wednesday night will probably drop into the the mid-60s.

Thursday and Friday

Our weather for the back-end of the work week will be determined by the strength of a front that arrives on Wednesday night. Some of our guidance is pretty bullish on cooler air behind the front, but others not so much. Given the overall pattern, I’m inclined to favor the warmer outcome as the most likely—even if it is the less desirable one for most of us. In any case, these should be partly to mostly sunny days with highs in the upper 70s. Lows will depend on the amount of cooler air behind the front, but I’m hopeful that most of the region will get into the upper 50s at least on Thursday and Friday nights. We’ll see.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Humidity washes back onshore with a southerly flow this weekend. That means we’re likely to see highs in the low-80s, with warm nights and partly sunny skies. I’m inclined to believe this is probably the last really warm and muggy weekend we’ll see this year—that is to say, with highs pushing toward the mid-80s—but it’s been such a hot year I’m making no guarantees. Each weekend day will probably have a low-end rain chance, on the order of 20 percent. This warmer pattern persists until around Wednesday or so, when we may finally see a bonafide fall front. However, it’s still about nine days out, so …