In brief: We’re likely to see the development of widespread showers, in addition to some thunderstorms, later this morning in the Houston area. Activity should be most pronounced this afternoon before the area likely starts to clear out for a bit this evening. If you’re taking mom out, bring an umbrella and check the radar just to be safe.

A lot of the ingredients necessary for moderate to heavy rainfall are percolating in the atmosphere near Houston right now. We’ve got plenty of moisture and instability. There’s also the impetus for lift, to carry the warm air at the surface higher into the atmosphere. What this all means is that the stage is set for showers and thunderstorms later today. But what will happen when the curtain actually rises?

Generally, I expect activity to develop to the southwest of the Houston metro area later this morning, and then push into the central portions of the region including Harris County, before or around noon. These showers and thunderstorms should gradually lift north during the afternoon hours, and I expect rain chances to subside almost entirely by sunset. I’m not anticipating anything too crazy today, with most of the region likely picking up a few tenths of an inch of rain to maybe 2 inches. However, there could be some higher bullseyes that cause temporary street flooding. Highs today will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with plenty of cloud cover. Mom doesn’t need to worry about a sunburn today, so she’s got that going for her, which is nice.

Monday should see some additional shower and thunderstorm chances, although I don’t feel entirely confident in the details. It also looks as though the potential for severe storms will be a little higher on Monday or Monday evening, with damaging winds and hail a slight possibility. We’ll have a comprehensive update on all of that for you early on Monday morning.

Have a wonderful holiday, everyone!

In brief: If you have clear skies and minimal light pollution, look to the north for a chance that you may see the aurora borealis (or northern lights) here in Southeast Texas (Friday night, the 10th).

We’ll keep this brief. A massive, if not historic solar storm has unleashed a barrage of solar flares toward Earth. Those arrived today, the strongest solar storm in at least 20 years to impact us. We have seen reports all over Europe of the aurora being visible. Not just visible…VISIBLE. Those reports have spread into the U.S. now, with much of Georgia, parts of Mississippi, Mobile, AL, and now Pinehurst and The Woodlands and Lake Conroe reporting the aurora.

The aurora can be fickle, so there is no guarantee you will see it everywhere tonight, certainly not in the city of Houston where light pollution is likely too much to overcome. However, if you have the means and time to get out and look north, this may be a once in a lifetime opportunity here in Southeast Texas. Please send us pictures as you’re able.

In brief: Quiet weather, (hopefully) less haze and smoke, and lower humidity will welcome us today and most of Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will bring a heavy rain chance back to the area on Sunday and Monday. We will be watching for flooding risks again to the north of Metro Houston.

I just want to start with a quick thank you to all that replied to our call for assistance earlier this week for our partners at the University of Houston working on weather messaging research. Nearly 200 of you responded, which is both amazing — and overwhelming! The small team of researchers at UH is working hard to get to everyone who replied. They should have more than enough response now to hopefully generate some interesting and useful results. Once again, you’re all awesome, so thank you!

Heavy rain update

While most of Houston saw little to no rain last night, areas to the north and west were clobbered with large hail or heavy downpours. There was another 1 to 4 inches of rain on the northern end of Lake Livingston. At this point, it does not appear that will do much to the Trinity River situation (which continues to slowly drop). But we’ll await updated forecasts later today. Meanwhile, the Brazos will begin to crest from north to south this weekend into next week.

The crest should reach Rosharon by about Monday and then West Columbia by Tuesday, with minor to moderate flooding, which primarily affects the lowlands and perhaps a couple roads near the river. This is not currently expected to get worse.

Today

Update (10:05 AM): Some showers have developed across Wharton and Jackson Counties and will spread eastward through the morning. Brief heavy rain is possible, and a shower can’t be ruled out in Houston either.

Good news today. Air quality should improve. Yes, the last couple days have seen smoke from a lot, I mean a *lot* of agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America. It has degraded air quality and everyone’s mood. With a breeze today pointed offshore, that should hopefully push a lot of this smoke back south of here. Hopefully last night’s rain helped too. I won’t promise a super clean air quality day, but we are starting off much better than yesterday already.

Will this end our streak of 90 degree-free days? Probably not. But it may be close. Drier air heats up more efficiently than humid air, and there may be just enough to push some of us over 90 today, particularly south of I-10. Maybe bet on Hobby Airport and not Bush Airport.

Saturday

This should be a mostly quiet day. Maybe a sprinkle or shower. But otherwise clouds, sun, still not terribly humid or hot. Morning lows will be in the 60s to near 70, with daytime highs in the mid-80s.

Mother’s Day & Monday

The word to your mother will be rain this year. Unfortunately we continue to see a soggy picture being painted for Sunday. I don’t think the entire day will be a washout everywhere, but an umbrella will be a required accessory for church or brunch or wherever your plans take you. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely on both Sunday and Monday. For the majority of metro Houston, most of the rain should be manageable. Some ponding or a stronger storm or two are possible. At this time, we don’t expect much worse than that. Again, that’s for most of Houston.

That said, atmospheric moisture is near the top of the charts for this time of year, which means that we could be talking about heavy rainfall rates in spots. If those rains end up north of I-10 in vulnerable areas up in Montgomery, northeast Harris, or Liberty Counties and points north, we may have flooding issues again. For now, let’s call it 1 to 3 inches of additional rain, with lower amounts possible south and higher amounts possible north. Keep tabs on the forecast this weekend. We will have at least one more update later tomorrow or Sunday morning with the latest.

Rest of next week

Quieter weather should follow for Tuesday or Wednesday before more storm chances return perhaps Wednesday night or Thursday. We have an opportunity to hit 90 on Tuesday, but then our next realistic chance won’t come until next weekend.

In brief: There are several things to watch for in the forecast, including hot temperatures today, some isolated thunderstorms tonight, and the potential for rain on Sunday and Monday in the absence of high pressure. Also, if you enjoy dry air, then Friday night and Saturday morning will be your time to shine.

Thursday

Houston will experience one more warm and particularly humid day today before we cool off slightly. Whether temperatures hit 90 degrees today will depend partly on sky cover this afternoon, when skies should be partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will generally be light, from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

By this afternoon a front will be approaching the area, and this may serve as a trigger for some isolated thunderstorms later this evening. I think the most likely scenario is that these storms weaken before pushing into the Houston metro area, to the west of Katy and north of Tomball. However, there is a slight risk of development over Houston itself, in which case we may experience some briefly heavy rainfall and the potential for hail. So the risk is low, but non-zero this evening. Lows tonight should drop into the 70s in Houston.

Friday

Drier air will slowly filter in to the region during the daytime on Friday, when I expect to see mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be from the northwest at about 10 mph with some higher gusts. Lows on Friday night drop into the upper 60s to 70 degrees for most locations.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend looks fine, with partly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s. Dewpoints should reach their low point on Saturday morning, so if you’re someone who likes drier air, that will be a good time to be out and about. As you might know, Houston doesn’t get much (ok, any) of that during a typical June, July, or August. Lows will drop to about 70 degrees on Saturday night as the onshore flow returns.

Sunday

Mother’s Day won’t bring much sunshine, alas. In fact as high pressure exits the area, our atmosphere will open up to a series of disturbances that will bring decent rain chances through the middle of next week. For Sunday, this means scattered to widespread showers. There is a risk of heavy rainfall, particularly north of Interstate 10, but for the most part these should be reasonable rains I think. In any case, please consider the possibility of showers on Sunday as you make plans for mom. Highs will be about 80 degrees with returning humidity.

Next week

We’ll see additional disturbances next week, and while the details are difficult to pin down, I expect to see a healthy chance of rain on Monday (highest), Tuesday (lowest), and Wednesday (medium) of next week. Regardless, it’s not going to be wall-to-wall rain, as there should be a fair amount of sunshine mixed in as well, with highs generally in the upper-80s. Rain chances diminish toward the end of the week, with highs likely around 90 degrees to go along with warm, humid nights.