In brief: Gorgeous weather allows the Houston area to exhale today before one more chance of storms on Saturday. The highest risk of significant weather on Saturday is east of our area into Louisiana and Mississippi, but a few noisy storms could impact a couple areas Saturday morning or afternoon. We have a gorgeous Sunday, followed by notably cooler weather after Monday next week.

As of this morning, the National Weather Service has confirmed at least four tornadoes across Southeast Texas.

Two were in Liberty County, including one which damaged an RV park. A third was a waterspout that crossed from Lake Houston onto land for a short time. The fourth was the very well-documented tornado that occurred in El Campo to the southwest of Houston. A fifth possible tornado was reported near Sugar Land, and as surveys unfold today, we could see a couple more added to the board.

Overall, this was a pretty good forecast. A lot of our severe weather days here are on the margins; either the cap breaks and we get hit, or it holds and we get minimal action. Yesterday was an example of the rare case where it was pretty clear cut that we had a severe risk over the entire area but only a few spots would see the really bad stuff. Rain forecasting will always be more challenging to pin down, so from that point of view, your mileage may have varied this week. But overall, the last few days have not thrown us too many curves thankfully, even if it has felt a bit out of season.

Today

Take a breath today. Low clouds and fog may be with us for a bit longer south and east of Houston, but it will clear out and turn out to be a really nice day overall. Highs will be in the low-70s.

Saturday

The third in our parade of systems arrives Saturday. Each successive one has ended up firing up farther east than the previous system, and Saturday should be no different. This looks like a similar setup to yesterday shifted about 150 miles or so to the east. What does that mean for Houston? We are in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Rather than being hit directly by a bunch of storms, we are located where a lot of the storms will kick off. So look for isolated to scattered showers and storms to impact the area from early morning into mid-afternoon, with perhaps a slightly higher risk north and east of the area. However, the storm coverage should not be nearly like we’ve seen this week.

One potential exception to all this may be south and east of Houston, particularly on Saturday morning between 5 and 10 AM or so. As the initial surge of warmer air returns, it could come with some strong thunderstorms, and I would not be surprised to see one or two heavy, noisy storms in Galveston, Chambers, or Jefferson Counties on Saturday morning.

Otherwise, high temperatures will be mild, topping off in the mid to upper-70s, with morning lows near 60 degrees.

Sunday

We clear out again by Sunday morning, leaving us sunny and very, very pleasant with highs in the low-70s.

Next week

Monday starts off warm, with highs well into the 70s. It should remain sunny however. Our strongest cold front since before Christmas arrives on Monday night or Tuesday morning. This will knock us back into the 60s for highs and 40s for lows in Houston, perhaps a bit colder in outlying areas. This appears right now to be a dry cold front, so we do not expect much, if any rain beyond tomorrow.

Beyond next week

I guess there has been some speculation floating around about snow risk and freeze risk in Texas on the proverbial internet. The comments we have gotten from people have ranged from next week to the second week of January on the timing, which raises a red flag immediately. Look. It’s the time of year where, yes, we will be watching for cold risks in the long range that could be capable of producing a Texas freeze. We see nothing of that nature right now.

The Climate Prediction Center is also not outlining anything of note in their 8 to 14 day hazard outlook (which is where you’d expect to start to see warning signs of a freeze). So at this point, we aren’t too concerned about that.

As for wintry precip, we don’t see much risk of that in early January here in Houston. There are subtle hints on the GFS operational model, as well as in some AI model guidance that a very brief setup that historically has been favorable for wintry precip somewhere in Texas may occur midweek the week of January 6th. That’s a solid 10 days from now, so I would not be placing my life savings on that possibility. Also, Texas is big, so I couldn’t tell you if that’s an Amarillo risk, a Dallas risk, or an Oklahoma risk. But it gives us something, I guess, to watch after New Year’s.

In brief: This short update is to inform you that potentially severe thunderstorms are on Houston’s doorstep, and will be impacting the region this afternoon. Please be weather aware for the next several hours.

Good afternoon. This is just a short post to note that, as expected, a line of strong thunderstorms is advancing into the Houston metro area as of 1:15 pm CT. We anticipate the period of most threatening and severe weather will occur from now through about 7 pm CT. Here’s what to expect during that time:

• A line of storms presently from El Campo to Sealy to Navasota will steadily progress eastward, likely reaching central portions of the Houston metro area between 2 and 4 pm CT
• These storms will then push steadily eastward, pushing offshore and to the east of Houston by 6 to 8 pm CT
• The primary threats from these storms include heavy rainfall that may briefly flood streets, damaging winds, hail, and possibly tornadoes
• To account for the threat of tornadoes, the National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch for the entire Houston metro area through 7 pm CT this evening.

Drier air will be moving in behind the storms as a weak front pushes into Houston overnight. Friday morning will (briefly) feel cooler and drier with temperatures in the lower 50s. Don’t get used to the cooler weather, as the onshore flow returns pretty quickly, with Saturday climbing back into the upper 70s. We’ll have full details in our forecast tomorrow morning, but until then, please be weather aware this afternoon and early evening!

In brief: The atmospheric setup today is favorable for severe weather, including hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes. The main threat will come from late this morning until early this evening. After the storms, Houston’s weather turns much calmer for the weekend.

Thursday

After a relatively mild Christmas Day, the atmosphere above Houston is recharged for another round of storms today. Rising moisture levels will spark some scattered showers this morning before an atmospheric disturbance advances into the area. Accordingly, we should start to see some thunderstorms later this morning, and likely becoming more widespread by around noon or so. We will then see the threat of severe weather until about sunset this evening, or shortly thereafter.

What does that mean? Well in addition to heavy rainfall, there may be enough rotation in the atmosphere to support a few tornadoes, enough updraft to support hail, and downdrafts to promote high surface winds. On top of this, although much of the area probably will see about 1 inch of rain, higher accumulations are definitely possible and this may lead to some localized street flooding. The bottom line is that, from late this morning through the early evening hours, you should be prepared for the possibility of disruptive weather.

Skies, otherwise, will be mostly cloudy. Expect highs in the mid-70s. Some moderately drier air will move in with a weak front tonight, allowing for lows to drop into the upper 50s in Houston.

Friday

Friday should be mostly sunny and pleasant, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s. Winds will generally be light. As the short-lived front washes out, lows on Friday night will be a bit warmer, in the lower 60s.

Saturday

This will be a warmer, slightly more humid day, with high temperatures in the upper 70s. A front will move through Houston on Saturday evening (exact timing to be determined) and this may bring with it a broken line of showers sometime during the day. I’m not particularly bullish on the potential for showers, but we’ll see. Anyway, Saturday night should be cooler, in the 50s.

Sunday

This should be a lovely day, with highs in the lower 70s, sunshine, and drier air. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 50s.

Next week

We should see lots of sunshine next week. We’ll be a bit warmer on Monday, but a front looks set to arrive late on Monday night, or New Year’s Eve, to begin the process of bringing temperatures down to more typical levels for this time of year. My early guess at temperatures for the night of New Year’s Eve calls for temperatures in the 50s, with probably mostly clear skies, and breezy conditions. So while it very likely won’t rain during New Year’s celebrations, it could be chilly. Lows should fall into the 40s for most of next week, in the new year.

In brief: Good morning on this fine Christmas Day. Santa sure brought the thunder last night, didn’t he? We are interrupting your holiday with a short update to note that another round of storms is possible Thursday as we see a similar setup: Lots of moisture in the atmosphere and a weak frontal boundary.

Christmas Day

The storms have cleared our area to the east, and we’ll see a calm day today. Look for high temperatures around 70 degrees, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and possibly a few light, lingering showers. Tonight will be mild, with lows in the lower 60s. The bottom line is that, soggy soils aside, any activities today and this evening should be fine.

Thursday

As atmospheric moisture levels rise, we’ll see the possibility of some fog on Thursday morning to go along with some fairly humid conditions. The problem is that we’re going to see another disturbance propagate down from the northwest during the daytime. What this likely means is that the Houston region (particularly coastal areas, maybe?) will see the potential for some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Then, later on Thursday afternoon or early evening, we’ll see a line of storms move down from the northwest to southeast. I’m not convinced these storms will be as organized as what we saw early on Christmas morning, but there’s the potential for some damaging winds, more hail, and briefly heavy rainfall. They might also strike during rush hour. The storms should clear the area before midnight.

Afterward, Friday and the weekend looks pretty pleasant. We’ll have all the details on that in our forecast on Thursday morning. Until that time, have a wonderful holiday!