Good morning. Temperatures will be hot enough today that the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for now through 7pm CT. This means the hot temperatures and humidity will combine to create a heat index of up to 110 degrees later today. We can probably expect more of the same for the remainder of the week as high pressure influences the region’s weather through the weekend. Some relief should come next week.

Wednesday

High temperatures today will likely reach near 100 degrees for inland areas, with lower-to-mid 90s along the coast. Expect mostly sunny skies, although there will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Winds will be light, at 5 to 10 mph out of the southwest. Our trend of warm nights will continue, with many areas south of Interstate 10 not falling below 80 degrees tonight.

Thursday and Friday

With conditions more or less the same for the remainder of the work week, I’d anticipate the National Weather Service extending heat advisories for both of these days.

Saturday and Sunday

We don’t really anticipate much change this weekend, either, with only slight—roughly 20 percent—rain chances both days. Otherwise skies should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 90s to possible 100 degrees for inland areas. Overnight lows will provide scant relief.

Next week

Things may get a little more interesting next week as high pressure backs off some. Rain chances may increase by Monday or so, perhaps into the 30 to 40 percent range. And I’m not ready to fully buy into this yet, but the models bring a front into Texas and push it toward Houston on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. The jury is out on how far the front will push into Houston, and whether it will make it all the way to the coast. Typically this does not happen in August, but if it does we’ll see some pleasantly drier air. We’re not going to get crazy here, but instead of nighttime temperatures of around 80 degrees, they may drop into the lower 70s in the city. We’ll see.

Welcome to mid-August. We’ve passed the first couple of months of this hurricane season in the Houston area without too much heartburn. The good news today is that we don’t have much specific on our radar that is of concern for the Gulf. The bad news is that we are anticipating that by late August there will be multiple areas to watch.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

A disturbance that may develop in the Atlantic is not a concern for us at this time, however we see signs on models that multiple tropical waves will be worth monitoring heading into late August.

Invest 95L

The disturbance in the Atlantic that is the most pressing at the moment is tagged as Invest 95L. It’s pretty far out there still, about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, or a little short of halfway to the Caribbean.

As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center says it has a 90 percent chance of developing into a tropical system over the next two to five days. On satellite today, 95L has a decent area of thunderstorms associated with it, but it seems to lack any kind of organization at this point.

The window for Invest 95L to develop is fairly narrow. We expect whatever it becomes to run into some serious wind shear as it moves toward the Caribbean. In addition, the system should be steered west around high pressure in the Atlantic, with a weakness in that ridge allowing it to gradually gain some latitude. We feel that will be enough to either allow for an escape out to sea or to dissipate the system well before it gets to the U.S., and we probably wouldn’t register this as something you need to worry about for the moment.

See full post

This is a pretty easy forecast for the region, and as there’s not much to say, we’re not going to say much. The prevailing pattern remains the same, with a ridge of high pressure anchored generally over the four corners region. For the next five or six days, this overall pattern does not change, with the ridge likely slowly moving north, and then a bit west. Houston lies on the eastern edge of this high, but we’ll feel enough of its influence to preclude all but isolated to scattered showers. In short, we’re going to see typical August weather for awhile.

Tuesday

Today will be mostly sunny, with highs in the low 90s near the coast, and upper 90s for inland areas. If you’re far enough west or north of Houston, highs may flirt with the 100s. Winds will remain very light, at about 5mph out of the south, providing no relief during the afternoon. Rain chances will be slight, at 10 to 20 percent for the region. Overnight lows will be warm and humid.

Wednesday and Thursday

More of the same.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The overall pattern does not change much, but as atmospheric moisture levels rise a bit, we may see slightly better rain chances in the mix. Forecast models also indicate this is when temperatures may reach their warmest—with the potential for 100-degree weather creeping southward into the Houston metro area—so expect plenty of heat and humidity to go along with any scattered showers.

Next week

By next week the high should continue to move west, and this may open the door to a more disturbed atmosphere with better rain chances. This probably will begin around Tuesday or so, but we’re not making any guarantees.