Goodbye to the 40s, perhaps for months, and hello rain

Temperatures in much of Houston, including the official weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport, dipped into the upper 40s on Wednesday morning. The question I’m left with is whether this will be the last time that happens this year until November. For example, in 2018, the final 40-degree night came on April 16, and the region didn’t get another one until Nov. 10. The next few weeks look fairly warm, so at this point I would bet on saying goodbye to the roaring 40s for at least the next six months. But no guarantees just yet.

In this temperature plot, green shows the normal range of daily highs and lows in Houston. (NWS/Space City Weather)

Wednesday

We’ll also say goodbye to high pressure for awhile, as it has moved to the east, to be replaced by a warmer and more moist airmass. As a result rain chances will be on the upswing from tonight through the weekend. Today should be a mostly cloudy affair, with highs of around 70 degrees. We can’t entirely rule out some scattered rain chances today for the Houston region, but any heavier showers will likely hold off until after sunset. Overnight lows will be warm, in the mid-60s.

Thursday

Better rain chances will come late Wednesday night and through Thursday morning, with accumulations of perhaps a few tenths of an inch up to (at most) one-half inch through about noon. This shouldn’t be too disruptive, and rains should end during the afternoon hours. Some sunshine may even peek out before sunset. Highs will be around 80, with mostly cloudy skies, and again warm nights.

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Houston sets a record low Tuesday, but spring returns later today

It’s another very cold morning for early April, with temperatures in the 30s for much of the metro area away from the coast. The low at Bush Intercontinental Airport dropped to 37 degrees this morning, which breaks the record low temperature for this day (38 degrees) set in 1996. This has been the region’s strongest April cold front in at least 20 years, although it can’t rival 1973, when a freeze was recorded in Houston as late as April 10. Anyway, after this morning, we’re done with very cold nights like this not just for now, but probably until November.

Tuesday morning temperatures are quite cold for the region. (National Weather Service)

Tuesday

After the cold start, we’re in for a gorgeous day. Expect full sunshine, with highs around 70 degrees, dry air, and light winds. In short, today should be nigh on perfect. Lows tonight will fall down to around 50 north of Houston, with mid- to upper 50s along the coast. For my tastes, I could not draw up a more perfect day.

Wednesday

By Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, the onshore flow will resume, and we can expect increasing clouds. While we can’t rule out some rain, chances are 20 percent, or less. Highs will be in the low 70s. Overnight temperatures Wednesday night aren’t likely to fall below the mid-60s.

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Enjoy winter’s last gasp, Houston. You know what’s coming.

Temperatures have reached the mid- to upper-30s across the northern reaches of the Houston metro area this morning, offering the region a final, fleeting taste of winter. As of 6:20 a.m. CT, the mark of 39 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport ties the record low for today, set in 1989. It is, indeed, quite chilly out with a light northerly wind, so dress accordingly this morning.

Monday

Skies will be clearing today, but with a bit of unsteady air aloft, we can’t entirely rule out a few stray showers this afternoon. However, most of us will not see rain, but rather partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs of around 60 degrees. This is nearly in line for normal low temperatures this time of year. Lows Monday night will be cold again (see map below), but temperatures probably should be a couple of degrees warmer than Sunday night.

Monday night will offer one last, chilly night for this spring. (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday

An absolutely splendid day: Highs around 70 degrees, mostly sunny skies, light winds. Overnight lows in the 50s. Play hooky.

Wednesday

Moisture will be returning inland later on Tuesday, and that will allow for the development of clouds on Wednesday. Rain chances are low (about 20 percent) but not non-existent, as highs push into the mid-70s (it will be even warmer if the sun can break through the clouds for a bit).

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Unsettled Sunday will cap off mediocre weekend weather

After mostly nice weather this week, we’re heading into the weekend warmer, but with a cold front on the way. That leads to unsettled weather. Let’s discuss.

Today

I don’t think we have any real issues today, but it wouldn’t be the biggest shocker in the world if a handful of us see a shower this morning as a weak disturbance pushes through. The best chances will be north of Houston, but ultimately, I do think most of the area will stay rather dry today. Onshore winds will continue to pump up temperatures, humidity, and provide a good deal of clouds. Expect us to reach about 80 degrees this afternoon.

Saturday

Tomorrow should behave a lot like today early on. Expect clouds, warm temps, humidity, and a chance of a shower through late morning. It gets trickier in the afternoon. The cold front is going to arrive in Houston sometime around mid- to late-afternoon. Because of that, expect a “dress for two seasons” day on Saturday.

This is the NAM model depiction of temperatures at 3 PM on Saturday. This would have the southeastern half of the region near 80 degrees, while the northwestern half has dropped into the 60s and even some 50s. Dress for two seasons tomorrow. (Weather Bell)

The morning will be warm and humid, and at some point in the afternoon, it’s going to get chilly. We may reach 70-75° in the far northern reaches of the area, call it Huntsville or College Station. Once the front passes, temperatures will drop into the 60s and 50s. In Houston itself, we will probably hit 75-80 degrees, with temperatures falling into the 60s after 3-4 PM. South of Houston should get to about 80 degrees away from the immediate coast, and the front will arrive in the evening, allowing temperatures to join the rest of the region in the 60s or 50s.

For everyone, expect just a few showers as the front moves through, but the temperature drop will be the hallmark of this frontal passage.

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