In brief: In this post we tackle some of the questions we’ve received from readers today, who are understandably concerned about the potential for a hard freeze and icy streets in Houston this weekend.

We are now about three days away from an Arctic front descending into Houston. We still don’t know the finer details about what to expect from this very cold airmass, but they should begin to come into better focus over the next couple of days as we get access to higher resolution forecast modeling. However, we realize that readers have a lot of questions, so we’re going to do our best to tackle some of them this afternoon.

Will Houston see freezing rain?

This is really the most important question, and it is one we cannot quite answer yet. I’m highly confident that we will see moderate to significant accumulations of freezing rain along and north of Highway 105, beginning as early as Friday night. I would not advise travel to Dallas or Austin any time after Friday afternoon, as conditions could deteriorate pretty quickly after that time. For areas well north of Houston I think sleet and possibly snow are options as well. It will be a mess on roads.

Closer to the city of Houston we are going to stay a little warmer, a little longer. At this time I don’t expect freezing temperatures to reach Harris County until Saturday morning at the earliest, and possibly not until Saturday evening. It will then be a race to see when air temperatures freeze at the surface, and when the precipitation slows or stops on Saturday. At this time I think there is a reasonable chance of freezing rain (and therefore icy streets) along and north of Interstate 10 on Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday. We also cannot rule out impacts further south. But where the precise line between cold rain and freezing rain falls, I just can’t say right now. Accordingly, the metro area should be prepared for icy roads this weekend, starting on Saturday in Houston. We’ll get better details on where and when in the coming days.

Should we be concerned about a hard freeze?

Yes, I think so. At this time both Sunday and Monday mornings have a chance of producing a hard freeze in Houston, with temperatures dropping below 25 degrees. Again the most likely location for this will be along and north of Interstate 10, but we can’t rule out anywhere except for the immediate coast. When temperatures drop this low we start to worry about pipes bursting. Please note that at this time we do not expect the extreme cold the region saw in February 2021, with widespread temperatures in the teens. But precautions should be taken with exposed pipes when temperatures drop into the 20s. Should you drip your faucets? We tackled this question in a post about a year ago.

Will the power go out?

We are not experts about electricity, but there are some general things we can say.

There are two areas in which power can fail. The first is in power generation, that is the natural gas plants and wind turbines and other sources of electricity. When these sources shut down unexpectedly during the February 2021 hard freeze in Texas, it led widespread outages. The second area of failure is in power distribution. That is, the poles and wires that carry power from plants to your home. It was these distribution channels that failed during Hurricane Beryl in July 2024 (i.e. trees falling into power lines).

For this upcoming winter storm we are going to see a cold air mass descend into Texas, but it will not be nearly so cold as that which the state experienced in February 2021. ERCOT forecasts ample electricity supply through the coldest period, next Monday. We think, barring catastrophe, this will be the case.

That leaves power distribution, handled locally primarily by CenterPoint Energy. I reached out to the company earlier today to ask about their concerns and plans, but did not receive a substantive response. My concern is that we see ice accumulations on tree limbs (causing them to fall on power lines), or ice on power lines that causes them to snap. Generally I think conditions in the Houston metro area will not be bad enough to cause widespread power disruptions, but that is just a guess. Again, we’re not experts. It’s my hope that the distribution companies are taking this threat seriously.

I have a flight on …

Look, I hear you on airport concerns. My wife and daughter are returning to Houston early on Monday morning, so this is something we’re watching closely. My sense is that Friday should be fine for air travel, and probably much of the day Saturday as well (for Bush Intercontinental Airport this will depend on when freezing temperatures arrive). As for Saturday evening through Monday morning, well, I just don’t know. I expect normal operations when temperatures are above freezing, which probably will be at least some of the time on Sunday, and after mid-morning on Monday. But beyond that, we just don’t know.

Our next update will be published by 7 am CT on Wednesday.

In brief: It will be warm in Houston this week until it’s not. An Arctic front will arrive on Friday night and drive temperatures down to their coldest level of the season. We are tracking the dual threats of a hard freeze this weekend as well as the potential for freezing rain and icy roads. Buckle up y’all, because it is winter storm season!

Winter storm potential

The state of Texas faces the potential for a significant winter storm this week beginning Friday evening, and lasting into much of the weekend. This will be driven by an Arctic front surging into the southern United States, bringing the coldest air of the season down into Texas. This front will also bring a decent shot of lingering precipitation, and for the northern half of Texas this will mean a mix of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Expect significant mobility issues in the metro areas of Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin, and possibly San Antonio.

As for Houston, the outlook is less certain. We are going to get very cold air, and almost certainly a freeze by Saturday evening. But it is not clear whether the freezing temperatures will arrive before the showers end. I think it is highly likely that areas along and north of Highway 105 (which runs from Navasota to Conroe to Cleveland) will see freezing rain on Saturday or Saturday night. But while there is clearly the potential for freezing rain further south, in the Houston metro area, we cannot yet say so for sure.

What we can tell you with confidence this morning is that travel north and west of Houston, beginning Friday evening, will start to become hazardous. There is the potential for icy roads in Houston itself on Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday. You also should begin to take precautions for a possible hard freeze, in which temperatures fall below 25 degrees. This is not a certainty, but it is a possibility for all but coastal areas.

Tuesday

If you prefer partly sunny skies and mild temperatures, then today is the day for you. There will be a brief window this afternoon when I think we’ll see a decent amount of sunshine, with temperatures rising into the mid- to upper 60s. Winds will be light, from the east. Lows tonight will be warmer than we’ve been experiencing, in the upper 50s.

Wednesday

A weak front will sag into the area on Wednesday and die, and this will bring us mostly cloudy skies and a healthy chance of widespread, light rain. I don’t expect serious accumulations, but many areas will likely pick up a few tenths of an inch of precipitation. Temperatures, otherwise, will be about 70 degrees with modestly humid air. Lows on Wednesday night will only drop to about 60 degrees. As a result some fog will be possible early Thursday.

Thursday

This will be another mild day, with highs around 70 degrees, or perhaps a bit warmer, with mostly cloudy skies. There will be a slight chance of showers. Expect another warm night, with lows only in the range of 60 degrees.

Friday

This will be our third cloudy, warm-ish day in a row, with highs likely in the low 70s. But by Friday evening the Arctic front will be dropping our way. This should support the development of some rain showers during the afternoon and overnight period. Lows on Friday night will drop into the 40s.

Saturday

This will be a cold and gray day, with a healthy chance of rainfall. Depending on how cold it is at various locations, but especially north of Interstate 10, we may start to see some freezing precipitation. I think for areas in Montgomery County and points north, air temperatures may reach freezing early on Saturday, so that’s why we have concerns about freezing rain. A more widespread freeze is likely in Houston and surrounding suburbs by Saturday afternoon or evening, and if the roads are wet they would freeze. Additionally, some light precipitation remains possible on Saturday night, and this would likely take the form of freezing rain.

The bottom line is that there is the potential for slick streets north of Houston on Friday night, and in the city itself beginning Saturday afternoon or evening. We will be watching this closely, of course, as the difference between rain and freezing rain is but a degree or two. Lows on Saturday night will probably drop into the mid- to upper-20s in Houston on Saturday night, but there remains a large dollop of uncertainty there.

Sunday

I think this will be partly sunny day, so I’m hopeful that air temperatures will climb above freezing area-wide by around noon, but I’m not confident this will be the case. It will be a cold day regardless, with highs likely in the 30s. Again we are going to have to monitor the potential for icy streets depending on how much moisture is left on roads, and whether there’s any additional light precipitation on Sunday (maybe a 10 or 20 percent chance). Lows on Sunday night will probably be similar to Saturday night, dropping into the 20s. But will it be low- mid- or upper-20s for Houston? Probably closer to the latter, but I’m not confident yet.

Monday

Temperatures should rebound a little bit by Monday, with mostly sunny skies, and reaching perhaps 40 degrees. This should end the threat of icy roads, but we cannot rule out impacts on Monday morning. Stay tuned.

Next week

There’s still some division among the various models, but most likely we will see a stretch of sunnier weather, with highs in the 40s and 50s, and lows at or above freezing. We’ll see.

In brief: Good morning. This is an update for winter-enjoyers. Although temperatures will moderate some this week, we are looking at a sharp incursion of colder air by Saturday, likely the coldest of the season. We also cannot rule out some freezing rain or sleet, although it’s too early to have confidence in such a forecast.

A mild winter … so far

Houston has recorded a handful of freezing temperatures this winter, including a mark of 32 degrees on Sunday morning. But the coldest our air has gotten just been barely below freezing, back on December 15 when the mercury reached 31 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. I say all of that to note that we expect our coldest airmass of the season to push into the region next weekend, and it is possible that widespread parts of Houston will dip into the 20s. We also cannot rule out freezing rain or a wintry mix. All of that to say, after a mild winter to date, things could turn a bit gnarly next weekend. More on what we know, and don’t, below.

Monday

Temperatures are generally in the mid-30s this morning, so it’s chilly once again. However unlike Sunday most of our region is above freezing. We are going to warm up nicely today with mostly sunny skies, allowing highs to reach the mid-60s. Winds will be light, from the southeast this afternoon. Temperatures will only fall into the mid-40s overnight, with increasing cloud cover.

Tuesday

This will be a mild, partly sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-60s. Winds may be a bit gusty, from the east. A weak front will pass into the area, and stall out near the coast. This will set the stage for scattered showers from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the mid-50s.

Wednesday

This will be a gray day, with high temperatures likely peaking in the mid-60s. It will bring our region’s best chance of rain in awhile, with the overall likelihood of precipitation a little higher near the coast where there will be more moisture available. I expect most of the region will probably pick up on the order of 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain, with some higher isolated totals. All in all this won’t be too impactful, and let’s face it, our coastal areas (raises hand) are pretty desperate for some precipitation. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 50s.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be warmer and mostly cloudy days, with highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees and lows in the 50s. It won’t feel particularly humid, with dewpoints in the 50s, but the air won’t exactly be dry either. Depending on the timing of the Arctic front mentioned above, temperatures could drop Friday night, or it could be another mild night. Some light showers will be possible ahead of the front on Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday and Sunday

If the front does not arrive on Friday night, it should do so by Saturday morning. Here’s what we know right now:

A massive amount of Arctic air is going to spill down into the Midwest and Central United States from Canada, bringing temperatures 30 degrees below normal. Some areas in Wisconsin and Illinois could see temperatures in the -10 degree range, or thereabouts. This air mass will modify as it moves south. and the real question for Texas is whether we see a direct shot of this Arctic air, or a less impactful ‘lobe’ that breaks off from the main body. For now I’m just not sure beyond saying it’s going to get quite cold.

How cold? I expect highs on Saturday in the 50s, dropping to the 40s by Sunday. In terms of lows, I expect a widespread freeze in much of Houston for Saturday and Sunday nights. But still to be determined is whether this a freeze of the variety we have seen to date (i.e. 30 to 32 degrees) or more impactful (mid-20s for much of the metro area). I’m just not sure at this point, but obviously we will be watching things closely all week.

Beyond this we cannot rule out the possible of freezing precipitation this weekend. A chance of showers will linger after the front (we expect mostly cloudy skies this weekend), and some of this precipitation could take the form of sleet of freezing rain depending on air temperatures. Snow seems unlikely, but we’re not ruling anything out at this point. Anyway, sleet, and especially freezing rain, would cause mobility impacts this weekend, and possibly into Monday morning. We don’t have any details yet, and we cannot predict with any confidence whether there will be a winter storm. But it’s not out of the question.

Next week

Temperatures will moderate some next week, but we are still probably looking at highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s or so. Hello winter!

In brief: Today, we tackle some colder weather for Houston this weekend, but most importantly, we look at the prospects of snow during the Texans/Patriots game in Foxborough on Sunday. We also have the latest on next week’s rain chances and some signs of colder weather again next weekend-ish.

Texans Outlook

We’re going to start in New England rather than in Texas today. Obviously, many of you are amped up for the Texans/Patriots game, with the Texans having a chance to do something exciting and positive for both the city and America in general. We are too. We’re also pretty intrigued by the forecast. The 50,000 foot view here is that a storm system is likely to pass through on Saturday, with rain showers ending as snow showers across southern New England. Then, on Sunday another storm system is going to develop off the Southeast coast, perhaps bringing some snow as far south as southern Georgia or even the Florida Panhandle. As that moves offshore and to the northeast, it will likely graze southeastern New England. It will be a close call for the Texans game.

A couple reasons for this. First, the storm track is not set in stone yet. A more suppressed storm would keep most precip closer to Cape Cod or coastal Massachusetts than Foxborough (remember, Gillette Stadium is closer to Providence than Boston). But if the current models are correct, Foxborough will be in the sweet spot for developing snow late on Sunday afternoon. Most importantly, timing is everything. Models have varied a bit on the snow’s onset for Sunday. Kickoff is 2 PM CT/3 PM ET, and it appears that snow develops in that window. It could be a situation where the game starts out with nothing worse than flurries, but the second half gets a little gnarly. Is that good for the Texans? The offense and fans should enjoy temperatures that may actually be about 4 to 8 degrees warmer than in Pittsburgh (mid to upper 30s) despite the snow, with lighter winds (5 to 10 mph). The defense? I’m pretty sure you could put them in a hockey rink on roller-skates and they’d still be scary good. Whatever happens: Let’s go Texans!

Today

Back to our local weather, it’s a cool start again today, but we’re heading up, up, up this afternoon. With sunshine, we should push into the low-70s.

Weekend

Another uneventful cold front pushes into the area tonight with maybe just a passing shower south and east of Houston. That will push offshore overnight, and much cooler weather will drop back in for Saturday. Morning lows will be in the 40s and 50s, followed up by breezy conditions and highs in the mid-50s at best. Saturday will be sunny once again.

Our coldest night of the current stretch so far will come tomorrow night into Sunday morning with lows in the 30s across the area. We will likely see temperatures near the freezing mark across northern parts of the area, as well as the usually sheltered colder spots out toward Bellville and Sealy and into Fort Bend and Wharton Counties, as well as in Liberty County. Sunday itself looks like a lovely winter day with sun and highs in the 50s.

Next week

There are no big forecast changes for next week. Monday starts quiet and sunny for those able to honor and enjoy the MLK holiday. Highs will be in the 60s after morning lows in the 30s and 40s. Clouds move in Tuesday, along with cooler temperatures. And the prospect of a widespread rain remains somewhat in the cards for Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned. Extreme and severe drought has expanded over the last week in the Houston area. We need rain.

Thereafter, we’ll watch for colder risks next weekend, possibly some of the coldest air of winter (though a Texas freeze event does *not* look likely at this time). Speaking of cold…

A message from Reliant

As Eric explained in yesterday’s post, January has been warm so far but cooler temps coming our way this weekend! At Reliant, we’re sharing a few energy-efficiency tips and simple home improvement tasks that can keep your heating system from working harder than it needs to and keep you from spending more on winter electricity bills.

Try space heaters in high-traffic rooms. Lower your thermostat and use an energy-efficient space heater in rooms where you spend the most time.

Check your thermostat. If you have an electric heater, set the thermostat to 68 degrees while you’re awake. Lower it and add an extra blanket while you sleep to save energy.

Use your drapes. Thermal drapes can help block drafts and retain heat, especially on older windows. Open south-facing curtains during the day to let in sunlight and close them at night to trap warmth.

Invest in smart plugs and smart power strips. These allow you to control the power supply to devices remotely via a smartphone app. This way, you can easily shut off power to devices not in use, even when you’re not at home.

Layer up. Reach for a sweater or blanket before reaching for the thermostat. Weather-appropriate clothes help reduce the demand for heat. Plug in your electric blanket and stay warm for around 25 cents a day.

Install insulation. While more of a long-term project, you can regulate your home’s temperature and reduce heating costs by adding insulation.

Weatherstrip exterior doors and windows. With a couple of hours’ work, you can seal out the cold and save up to 10 percent on total energy costs.