In brief: Houston will continue to see very warm days, with highs generally in the upper 80s, for the rest of the month into early November. The only difference is that the modestly lower humidity we have seen this week will increase next week, and things are going to feel really humid for this late in the year. Rain chances remain possible later next week, but we’re unlikely to get the widespread drought relief we need.

Thursday

Calm winds and temperatures down near dewpoints in the lower 60s this morning are creating conditions to produce at least some patchy fog across parts of the area, but it will recede as temperatures warm up. We’re going toward the mid- to upper-80s for most locations today, with sunny skies and light easterly winds. Dewpoints will be low enough that the air feels at least somewhat dry outside. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid- to upper-60s for most locations, with the coast warmer as usual.

Friday

We’ll be a bit warmer on Friday, with much of the area in the upper-80s and a few locations potentially hitting 90 degrees. Sunny skies will prevail. The air will also feel a bit more humid, so this will be a pretty warm day overall. Lows on Friday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Dewpoints drop back slightly for the weekend, so the air should again feel slightly drier. Days will still be quite warm, in the upper 80s for most locations. However, nights will be back into the mid-60s for most of Houston away from the coast. Skies will be almost uniformly sunny, so you should have no concerns about outdoor plans, except for atypical heat for late October.

Next week

We’ll see a continuation of warm, sunny days to start next week, with highs again in the upper 80s on Monday and Tuesday, and clear nights with lows in the upper 60s. However, the onshore flow should really start blowing and going at some point on Tuesday—we may see some fairly pronounced southerly winds—and this will act to boost humidity. We’re then likely to see partly cloudy and humid days during the second half of next week, with highs remaining in the upper 80s and nights in the low 70s. This is really incredibly warm for late October (including Halloween) into early November.

The only upside is that rain chances will finally return to the forecast by Wednesday or so. However, the overall likelihood of rain probably remains in the 30 percent range. In his post yesterday, Matt mentioned the possibility of a cold front by around next weekend, and there’s still a healthy chance of a front by Sunday (November 3) or Monday, but it’s something I would consider far from locked in.

In brief: More of the same is expected over the next few days in Houston, with cool-ish mornings and very warm afternoons, along with a good bit of sunshine. The weather pattern changes for a time next week toward humid with rain chances. Then, perhaps we can await our next front.

About 800 miles separate the two portions of Texas that have done well in the rain department this month: The mouth of the Rio Grande and the tippy top of the Panhandle. New Mexico has outperformed Texas, even with some serious flash flooding there recently.

But in general, we are far from alone right now in this dry pattern. The next couple weeks will bring us more of the same but also some potential for change, particularly next week. I think looking at the European ensemble for low temperatures the next two weeks shows how the pattern splits into 3 differing acts of weather.

Act I: The stable period through Sunday

Over the next several days, things will be pretty calm. We can expect daytime highs in the upper-80s, just a couple degrees shy of daily records. But if you want some autumn flavor, the mornings will remain fairly cool, in the 60s. These temperatures are still solidly at least 8 to 10 degrees warmer than usual. Rain chances will remain nil. We will get a weak reinforcing shot of drier air Friday that should extend this weather through at least Sunday and possibly Monday.

Act II: Revenge of humidity and rain chances

Next week sees a change. We’ll have both more unsettled weather and increasing rain chances, as well as much more humidity. Overnight lows will likely shift into the low-70s, about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal, while daytime highs will hold steady or even fall a few degrees due to clouds and rain chances.

I think we want to be realistic about rain chances next week. In a drought, sometimes you find ways to fail, and while I would still expect at least an inch or so of rainfall from scattered thunderstorms next week, the heavier rains, the 2 to 4 or 5 inch totals will probably be confined to a narrow corridor somewhere in the area along or northwest of highway 59. Something we will continue to watch. The European operational model shows this well below as a possible example of what could occur.

Regardless, we will see just a warm, humid, un-autumn-like week next week.

What this means for Halloween remains partially unclear. There will almost certainly be a chance of rain, but it will almost certainly also be warm. So plan for warm right now, but check back with us on the rain chances which may not become clear until early next week.

Act III: Additional autumn?

After next week’s pattern shift, we could see a return to something more typical for autumn. I would say there’s probably a 40 to 50 percent chance of a meaningful cold front around next weekend. The exact timing is uncertain, but there’s enough signal in the models for us to think there’s a decent chance. We’ll keep watching.

In brief: Today’s post discusses why the month of October is often one of Houston’s wettest months of the year, but definitely is not in 2024. We look at our continuing warm daytime temperatures through the weekend, and the possibility of finally seeing some rain next week.

State of play

With high pressure more or less in place for the forecast period, we’re going to see warmer than normal days into early next week. However, the overall flow will be somewhat drier, so we’re going to see dewpoints lower than is customary in Houston. The net effect is that daytime temperatures will warm more rapidly, but nights will be a bit cooler than we might otherwise expect. Unfortunately, the overall atmospheric pattern will remain dry through the weekend as well, continuing our very dry October.

To date, the city has recorded 0.0 inches of precipitation this month. That’s surprising, because October is often one of the wettest months of the season. The historical average is 5.46 inches of rain, which ranks as the second wettest month, behind only June. Why is this month often so wet? We sometimes see late-season influxes influxes of tropical moisture earlier in the month, and often the fronts sweeping down in later October bring storms with them. We have seen none of that this year.

Tuesday

High temperatures today will reach the mid-80s for much of the area, although a few inland parts of Houston may push into the upper 80s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with a light easterly wind. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the week. High temperatures will depend on your location, ranging from the lower 80s near the coast, with the upper 80s in much of Houston, and pushing 90 degrees further inland. Days will be hot, but with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s, the air will feel modestly drier. Overnight low temperatures drop into the 60s for all but the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

You guessed it, more sunshine. Highs will remain mostly in the upper 80s, with lows in the 60s. The chance of inclement weather is basically zero, so if you have outdoor activities planned, you can feel pretty good about them. Provided you bring sunscreen, of course.

Next week

The sunny pattern continues into Monday, after which time we are likely to see the atmosphere become a bit more disturbed. This should lead to the development of some clouds by Tuesday, and some decent rain chances by Wednesday. I don’t want to over-set expectations, and no one should be expecting a few inches of rainfall to put a dent in our emerging drought. But the very dry pattern should finally begin to break during the second half of next week. The models are all over the place in terms of temperatures, so I don’t have much confidence in the weather for Halloween yet. If pushed, I’d guess that high temperatures are somewhere in the lower-80s, but I feel like that could be a trick.

In brief: The forecast for this week is fairly boring. If you like dynamic change you’re out of luck, as our days for at least the next week will be rather warm, sunny, but with modestly drier air. Nights will be somewhat cool, but definitely not chilly. Although rain chances are essentially zero for the next seven days, but there starts to be some hope for precipitation after that.

A cool spell ends

The second half of last week produced the region’s first run of cooler-than-normal temperatures since early September, with a couple of days with high temperatures in the 70s, and a few nights in the 40s and 50s. This provided a nice preview of fall-like weather, but our daytime highs are headed back into the upper 80s later this week.

However our nights will remain a touch cooler, with slightly drier air from the northeast helping to cool us off into the low- to mid-60s most nights. As for rain, we’ve been talking about how dry things have been, and that is not going to change this week. However, I have some hope for some change in a little more than a week from now.

Monday

High temperatures will reach the mid-80s today, with sunny skies. Winds will generally be from the east, at about 5 to 10 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny, but with dewpoints in the 50s, the air will feel fairly dry. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 60s tonight. Clear skies should continue to prevail.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

There won’t be much change in the weather this week after today. Each day will see mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s near the coast, upper-80s for much of the city, and about 90 degrees for inland areas. The air will be modestly dry, and this will help push highs so warm (90-degree days in late October are no unheard of, but they’re quite rare). Lows will drop into the low- to mid-60s for most locations away from the coast, so nights and evenings will be pleasant.

Saturday and Sunday

Not much changes this weekend. A (very) weak front may push highs back down into the mid-80s, and take a degree or two off nighttime temperatures. But we should continue to see sunny days and cool-ish nights. If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, you can make them with confidence.

Next week

The forecast for next week is uncertain. There are hints of a front in the Monday timeframe, or possibly later in the week, but I don’t have great confidence in any of that happening for sure. However, we may finally see a break from a pattern in which high pressure prevails. Most of our modeling guidance does suggest that Houston may start to see some better rain chances by around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Now that’s nine or ten days into the future, so I would not set out your cisterns just yet. But it does provide some hope after a very dry fall.