In brief: Today’s post reviews the Atlantic hurricane season to date, and sets expectations for the remainder for Texas. We also look ahead to a front that will bring slightly cooler weather and increase the likelihood of rainfall for the upcoming holiday weekend.

The Atlantic tropics

It is now late August. Regular readers of this site will know that, although the Atlantic hurricane season lasts through November 30, Texas generally has an earlier shut off date. There are no absolutes in weather, but after late September, the odds of a hurricane striking the state of Texas drop off significantly. So when we are thinking about prime time to be impacted by a hurricane, we have about one month to go.

So far this season Texas has seen minimal tropical activity, a few very modest rain events. However, the next month or so is typically the busiest time of year. After a burst of activity earlier this month with Erin (now gone) and Fernand (weakening), the Atlantic tropics are expected to be fairly quiet over at least the next week or so. In fact, if we look at the broader picture there are several background factors right now, including a large Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough over the Atlantic, that are creating a more hostile background for storms to form and intensify.

This pattern should persist into early September, so we are looking good for a bit. However, I still think there is a solid window in mid- and late-September when our region will be vulnerable to hurricanes. So yes, things are looking good. But for Texas, the Atlantic hurricane season is not yet over.

Tuesday

For a shining moment on Monday dewpoints in parts of Houston dropped briefly below 60 degrees, but that slightly drier air is now gone. Now, background moisture levels are rising and this will return us to an environment more favorable for rain. Chances today won’t be overly high, less than one-in-three for most locations, with the better chances close to the coast. Overall accumulations will be, for the most part, slight. With mostly sunny skies expect high temperatures this afternoon in the mid-90s, with a few locations further inland reaching the upper 90s. Lows tonight will be warm, in the upper 70s.

Wednesday

Rain chances will increase to about 50 percent on Wednesday, and this should help to keep temperatures in the vicinity of the low- to mid-90s. Accumulations look to be modest, measured in the low tenths of an inch for areas that receive rain, or less.

Thursday

It looks like our likelihood of rain will back off a bit on Thursday, perhaps to around 30 percent. Expect highs in the low- to mid-90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A weak front will sag into the Houston region this weekend, and bring an increased likelihood of rain along with lower temperatures. Rain chances will be about 50 percent on Friday, peak on Saturday above 50 percent, and drop back a little bit on Sunday. These showers will be hit or miss, so if you have outdoor activities there’s still a chance they’re going to be fine. But you’ll definitely want to have a contingency plan. Through the weekend most of the region should pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, but I’m sure we will have some higher bullseyes. The front will bring with it dynamics to support higher rainfall rates, so some locations may quickly pick up 3 inches or so. We’ll be keeping a close eye on things.

In terms of temperatures we can expect highs in the lower 90s on Friday, and perhaps the upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.

Labor Day and next week

For our holiday next Monday we should see a continuation of the weekend-like weather, with highs in the upper 80s and perhaps a 40 percent chance of rain. Those kinds of temperatures for Labor Day weekend are definitely cooler than normal, so although the front is not going to feel “cold,” it’s likely going to have a meaningful impact on temperatures. Most of next week should remain in the vicinity of 90 degrees, with additional rain chances later in the week.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the hints of forthcoming fall weather in our forecast, and also discuss the possibility of additional weather balloons in Texas. For our forecast, Monday looks to be quite hot, but with lower humidity After today there will be a smattering of rain chances all week, with the weekend looking cooler after a weak front (probably) arrives.

Signs of fall and weather balloons

I wanted to hit on a couple of notes this morning. First up is the realization that this is the final week of August, and a period when we often see high temperatures in the 100s in Houston. For this week Monday, especially, looks to see hot weather. But one of the reasons for this is that we are seeing an influx of drier air, which is a harbinger of stronger fronts that will be possible in a few weeks’ time. This afternoon we may see dewpoints drop into the upper 50s in Houston, and while this is not super dry, it is significantly less humid than normal for late summer. This drier air will allow afternoon highs to spike into the upper 90s. Additionally, we have the prospect of another weak front sagging into Houston this coming weekend. Now these August fronts don’t carry much oomph, but they pave the way for the possibility of more substantial fronts in September. Also, we might get some lows in the lower 70s out of it, possibly even upper 60s for far inland areas. So yes, it’s still summer out. But if I squint, I can see change on the horizon.

I also want to mention an editorial that appeared in the Houston Chronicle last week regarding the devastating Central Texas flooding in early July. The editorial correctly notes a paucity of weather balloon soundings over Texas (something we’ve often talked about here), and suggests that as part of their ongoing special session, Texas lawmakers consider creating a network of weather stations to better monitor conditions across the state, including setting up additional weather balloon launches on a daily basis. As a forecaster, I can say that this would definitely improve our ability to predict the most dynamic and impactful flooding events such as that which occurred near Kerrville.

Monday

As noted above, we are seeing an influx of drier air today. This should lead to a hot, mostly sunny day for the region. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-90s with a few far inland areas possibly toying with 100-degree weather. Overall humidity should be lower, however. So if you’re one of those “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity people,” today is your day to shine. Rain chances are near zero. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 70s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

A pattern change will see slightly more unsettled weather move into the area for the mid-week time frame. Overall rain chances will be on the order of 30 to 40 percent daily, and for the most part accumulations should slight, on the order of a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. A slight increase in cloud cover should help moderate temperatures a bit. Highs should be in the mid-90s for most locations. The dry air will be long gone, so expect ample humidity. Lows will drop into the upper 70s for most.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A weak front will approach the area on Friday, and likely push into the metro area on Saturday. The net impact of this should be to drive up rain rain chances to about 50 percent daily. Again, we are not looking at anything too special regarding accumulations, probably just tenths of an inch for the most part. But there could be a few stronger showers that bring a total of 1 inch or more to some areas near the coast by the end of the weekend. Highs on Friday should reach the mid-90s before falling to around 90 degrees this weekend with a few more clouds and slightly cooler air. Lows this weekend could drop into the low to mid-70s. Again, this is not chilly by any means, but a nice harbinger of what’s to come this fall.

Next week

The overall pattern next week should see continued highs mostly in the low- to mid-90s, with decent reain chances. Knock on wood, but I’m not seeing any sign of the early September spike in daily highs that the region sometime experiences.

In brief: We are pushing out a Stage 1 flood alert for today based on developments since this morning. Locally heavy downpours will almost certainly cause some street flooding around the area, primarily of the nuisance variety, so use caution the rest of the day if out and about.

Update: The flash flooding threat has mostly ended. We will go back to normal, ending the flood scale alert and referring you to our Friday AM post for the weekend outlook.

We’re going to update things today, as it appears we’ve got some sluggish movers out there. We’ve already seen a couple flood advisories this morning, and some chunks of the area have received 1 to 4 inches since Tuesday.

As such, we’re going to fire up the flood scale for Stage 1 today. I would bank on at least a few areas seeing flooded streets today that may inconvenience travel as the afternoon wears on. So, use caution out there today, particularly in areas of persistent downpours. Off and on rain and thunder is likely to persist and maneuver around the area through early evening before hugging the coast at times again overnight, possibly spreading inland a bit again as well.

So use caution out and about, and we’ll let you know if things should escalate further, though we don’t believe that to be so today. Our next update will be planned for Saturday morning unless the situation warrants otherwise.

In brief: Another round or two of showers and storms will pelt many parts of the Houston area today, with some locally heavy rain possible. Rain chances will start to slow this weekend into early next week before the next round of rain chances kicks off around midweek. There are no current tropical concerns for the Houston area.

Yesterday’s storms were relatively squirrely, especially down in Brazoria and southern Fort Bend Counties. There was a 66 mph wind gust reported from a CenterPoint weather sensor at Brazos Bend State Park. Fascinatingly enough, the radar looked rather innocuous with the storm at the time, but some strong wind gusts elsewhere, including nearly 50 mph just west of Damon seem to back that reading up. That’s just the thing with storms this time of year in Houston: If you catch one at the wrong point in its life cycle in the wrong way, it can produce some pretty quick, short-lived but nasty impacts.

Today

Already today we’ve seen plenty of thunder and some wind gusts up near 50 mph near San Luis Pass. As of this writing, the heavier storms are all offshore, with some isolated downpours and lightning outside the Beltway in western Harris County back through Sealy and Columbus.

As the day goes on, we may actually see things calm down a bit for a time before ramping back up again this afternoon or this evening. I’m not entirely confident on the timing of the next wave; some modeling is quick and quite aggressive with coverage of the next wave of showers as early as late morning. Others hang development back until late afternoon. But we do know a second wave of scattered downpours is likely later today. Expect a very sporadic pattern of coverage with some places seeing squat and others seeing as much as 2 to 3 inches in short order.

Weekend

A continued chance of showers and thunderstorms will be with us on both Saturday and Sunday, as is typical for August. We do think coverage and some of the intensity of the storms will wane a bit on both weekend days, with perhaps Sunday having even less coverage than Saturday. We may see another rude early wake up in spots on Saturday morning as some nocturnal storms could pop up after midnight between Houston and the coast. Then I think we’ll see a summer pattern of mid to late afternoon isolated to scattered downpours resume.

Look for highs in the mid-90s, with a few isolated upper-90s possible.

Monday and Tuesday

We think things will be similarly subdued like Sunday to start next week. Rain chances certainly are not zero, but they’ll remain lower. Highs should again be in the mid-90s.

Midweek next week

We should see another boundary drop in or develop over the region around midweek next week. This should mean an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage once again. Look for cooler daytime highs as a result.

Total rainfall between today and next week is likely going to be around 1 to 3 inches near the coast, with lesser amounts inland. Isolated higher amounts are possible anywhere in the area, and yes, some isolated places will see lower amounts too.

Tropics

The map currently favors us for the most part.

Of the activity out there today that we’re monitoring, only Invest 99L is worth keeping an eye on. No reliable model guidance is bringing it to the Gulf, but just out of respect for the calendar and history, it’s important to just check in and see if southern tracking waves like this one heading for the Caribbean can survive enough to get closer. Even if it were to do that, I’m not sure that the upper pattern would allow it to come north much, if at all. So either way, this probably ends up buried in Central America ultimately. But we’ll babysit it anyway. Other than that, you can continue to assume the brace position as we navigate the final 5 to 6 weeks of our peak hurricane season. We’re all just trying to get to the finish line.