In brief: Today’s post discusses the rounds of rain (some heavy) that will come to Houston this weekend, likely bringing us much needed relief from an emerging drought. We are also increasingly confident in a fine, fall front next week.

Pattern change ahead

It has been a remarkably dry September and October in Houston, and we’re not talking about booze. Although we have had some weak fronts back door into the region, none have produced enough atmospheric disruption to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms. However, that will change over the course of the coming week. We are going to see an initial front on Saturday that will bring a couple of rounds of storms, but not too much cooling. Then next week, probably in the vicinity of Wednesday, we are going to see a stronger front that seems unlikely to bring much rain, but will bring significant cooling into the area. If you’ve been waiting for rain, or fall, or both, you’re in luck!

Thursday

Today will be our last day with near-zero rain chances until next week, although we cannot rule out a few isolated showers this afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny, but with winds turning more east-southeast, we will see humidity levels rise from what we experienced on Wednesday. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-80s. A few far inland areas may push upward toward 90 degrees, and I’m going to be a little risky here and predict this is our last chance to hit that mark in the year 2025. Lows tonight will be warmer, only falling to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Friday will likely see mostly sunny skies to start, but then with building clouds during the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-80s with plenty of humidity. Rain chances will increase during the afternoon and evening hours, but overall I still expect this activity to be fairly scattered. So if your plans include Friday Night Lights, the games may well get played. By Friday night we’ll want to keep an eye on conditions to our west. We expect a line of storms to form near the I-35 corridor in Central Texas around midnight, and then advance toward the Houston region overnight.

Saturday

The squall line mentioned above will probably—and bear in mind there remains uncertainty in this timing—push through the Houston metro area around dawn, perhaps in the 6 am to 9 am time frame. Some of these storms could be severe, with the threat of hail. But overall severe storms appear to be less of a threat than heavy rainfall. We need the rain, and it could come in bunches. We expect this line to move through and then to (maybe) be followed by a brief lull in activity during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

Careful readers will know we are planning Fall Day festivities from 10 am to Noon in Midtown Park on Saturday. I’ll be back later this morning with a word on our final decision about whether we are going to press ahead. So stay tuned.

Anyway, the front itself should drive another round of showers later on Saturday or Saturday night. All told we think the majority of the region will pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, but higher local amounts will be possible. Since our soils are so dry they should be able to absorb much of this rainfall, so flooding is not a major concern at this time. But we’ll be watching closely. Temperatures on Saturday should be in the 70s for the most part.

Sunday

Rain chances will be lower (but non-zero) on Sunday. Expect highs in the lower 80s with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 60s, with a bit of drier air.

Next week

The details are still a bit fuzzy, but I think we can expect highs in the low 80s on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a front that will bring drier and cooler air. Anyone ready for lows in the 50s? Because I think that’s coming.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss rainfall amounts for this weekend, when we are likely to see our greatest totals in a quite some time. We also provide an update on our Fall Day celebration, and look ahead to a stronger front next week.

Eric, isn’t Fall Day on Saturday?

Yes, it is. Somehow, the “geniuses” who run Space City Weather scheduled Fall Day for Saturday October 25th, a day when the region has its best chance of widespread rain in quite literally months. The reality, of course, is that such events take a lot of planning (which Reliant has really been helping us with), including scheduling Midtown Park, ordering all sorts of things, and inviting a lot of different groups to come make the day special for everyone. So we selected October 25th earlier this summer.

So what are we going to do? For now we are still planning to hold Fall Day from 10 am to Noon CT on Saturday, pending the forecast. There remains a fair bit of uncertainty in the timing of the storms on Saturday (they could be pre-dawn, they could be mid-morning smack during Fall Day, or around noon or later). If the gathering poses any danger to people we are going to cancel it of course, but we want to wait a little while longer to make a final decision. Matt and I know better than anyone how forecasts can shift. Thanks for your interest and patience.

Wednesday

We should have held Fall Day today! It’s pleasant outside this morning, with fairly low humidity and temperatures in the 60s. With modest easterly winds throughout the day, humidity will remain low as high temperatures reach about 80 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies. Humidity levels will start to creep back up overnight, so although inland areas probably will drop into the upper 50s or lower 60s, coastal areas may well be a bit warmer late tonight.

Thursday

As the onshore flow resumes we may see a few more clouds in the sky, and humidity will go up as well. Highs likely will crest in the mid-80s before a mild night with lows in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. There is a slight chance of showers near the coast.

Friday and Saturday

We should see some sunshine on Friday morning, but clouds will start to build later in the day. An upper-level low pressure system and an accompanying front at the surface will advance toward the area, and overall dynamics support the development of showers and thunderstorms to go along with it. The timing is our real point of uncertainty. Generally what I expect is scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and night (highs in the 80s on Friday). At some point a line of storms will push through the area along with the surface front, but whether that happens earlier Saturday or later in the day, we just don’t know yet. But at some point we’re going to see moderate to heavy rainfall. Although totals will vary widely, most of the region should pick up 1 to 4 inches. We hope to have better details about all of this for you in tomorrow’s forecast update, when we begin to have improved high resolution data. Anyway, highs on Saturday will likely be in the 70s (at least we got that part of Fall Day correct, hah).

Sunday

Rain chances won’t go away during the second half of the weekend, but they should be decidedly lower than Saturday. Expect a high near 80 degrees, with overnight lows in the 60s.

Next week

The first half of next week will probably see highs in the low- to mid-80s with muggier air before a stronger front arrives (Wednesday, maybe?) The details of this are still pretty fuzzy, but we can almost assuredly expect to see some much drier and colder air.

In brief: Houston’s weather has been largely unchanging in recent weeks, but that pattern is about to break. We expect widespread rain showers this weekend, and this will be our best chance of denting Houston’s emerging drought in a long time. We also are looking at the likelihood of fall-like weather later next week.

A forecaster’s lament

I have a love-hate relationship with boring weather in Houston. On one hand, it’s extremely easy to forecast conditions when you have high pressure sitting on top of your head in October. Basically, every day features sunny and warm-to-hot conditions, with warm nights. So yeah, it’s easy to be right. And who doesn’t like to be right?

However, it becomes pretty boring to write about that kind of a pattern every day (sometimes we must take drastic measures to relieve the tedium, like a GIF-based forecast). Moreover, as someone who lives in Houston, it is boring to experience the same weather every day, especially when we are supposed to be transitioning from summer to fall. Variety is the spice of life, and all that. Well, I’m here to tell you that this transition is happening finally, so buckle up.

Tuesday

We’re going to see another partly to mostly sunny day today, with high temperatures likely reaching 90 degrees for most of the region. (There’s a non-zero chance this is our final 90-degree day of 2025, but I don’t want to jinx anything so pretend I did not write that). A weak front will arrive later today, and it will bring a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms with it. The best chances will be east and southeast of Houston, particularly in areas near Galveston Bay, this afternoon and early evening. The front will usher in some drier air, and lows tonight will drop into the upper 60s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Wednesday

This will be a sunny and pleasant day, with mostly dry air and highs of around 80 degrees. It’s not precisely clear how long the drier air will hold over Houston, and this means we have some uncertainty about how chilly Wednesday night will be. I’m going to be optimistic and say much of Houston drops to around 60 degrees by Thursday morning, but if our dewpoints rise more quickly, it’s going to be a more humid and warmer night.

Thursday

This should be another mostly sunny day, but highs will be a little warmer, likely in the mid-80s for most locations as the onshore flow resumes. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the lower 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

An upper-level low pressure system will approach, and move through the region this weekend, and with abundant atmospheric moisture to tap it is going to bring our best chance of rain in many weeks. Friday should start out mostly sunny, but we’ll see building clouds during the afternoon. Late Friday night through Saturday night is when I expect to see the best chance of rain, with the potential for some thunderstorms. The entire region should see precipitation, and the models have become more bullish overnight. I’m projecting about 2 inches of rain for most people, but totals will vary widely and there is the potential for higher accumulations. Rain chances will fall on Sunday, perhaps to around 40 percent, before things clear out. The weekend will see highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees with mild nights near 70 degrees.

Next week

Most of our model guidance is still pointing toward the arrival of a fairly strong cold front by around next Wednesday or so. Would I etch this forecast in stone, since it is eight days out? No I would not. But I’m rather hopeful that truly fall-like weather is coming during the second half of next week. Details to come as our confidence increases.

In brief: In this morning’s post we dig into the data to find that yes, this October definitely still ‘feels’ like summer. Will this ever end? Also, we look ahead to increased rain chances this weekend.

Fall is more than half over, and yet…

You may not realize it, but meteorological fall is already half over. We crossed that threshold last week. But this morning aside—which is lovely!—much of September and October have felt like a continuation of summer. I crunched the numbers this morning, and the average high temperature so far this month, through Sunday, has been 91.3 degrees. If that sounds strikingly warm for October, well, it is.

The normal high during the first three weeks of this month is about 85 degrees. This month’s temperature, through 19 days, is the hottest ever, beating the record of 90.7 degrees (set last year). Compare this to the ‘normal’ high temperature for September, which is 90.4 degrees. So yes, if you’re thinking that large swathes of October have felt like a continuation of summer-like weather, you’re not wrong. If you’re wondering if fall is ever going to arrive, the answer is yes, hopefully a little more than one week from day. More on that below.

Monday

Temperatures this morning range from about 50 degrees in the usual cold spots, such as Conroe, to the lower 70s right along the coast. For most of us, these are the coolest temperatures of the season. However the front that brought this weather to us is already washing out, and we’ll see winds swing to come from the east-southeast today, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph. We’ll also see sunny skies, with highs near 90 degrees, and rapidly rising dewpoints. As a result humidity levels will be higher by this evening, and overnight lows will only drop into the 70s for pretty much everyone.

Tuesday

Another front will push into the region later on Tuesday, and this will bring a slight chance of rain, perhaps 30 percent for Houston, and a little bit higher for coastal areas. This will be humid and warm day ahead of the front with temperatures in the lower 90s for most. Temperatures should fall into the 60s for most on Tuesday night behind the front as drier air moves in.

Wednesday and Thursday

These should be a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the 80s. Wednesday will have lower humidity, but Thursday also does not look excessively humid. Wednesday night should see lows drop into the mid-60s (colder still north and east of Houston), whereas Thursday night only falls to around 70 degrees. Rain chances on both days is near zero.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The combination of an upper-level low and the onshore flow will bring a better chance of rain into the forecast for the weekend period. It’s not clear when the best chances will come, but it likely will be between Friday and Saturday night. It’s too early to have much confidence in accumulations, but most of the area could pick up on the order of 1 inch of needed rain through Sunday. In any case, these days should see partly sunny skies with highs in the 80s. Lows will likely be in the vicinity of the upper 60s to 70 degrees.

Next week

The warmer weather will hang on to start next week, but following that there is a a fairly strong signal in the global models for a pattern change, and this is supported by an atmospheric setup that should allow colder air over Canada to move down into the United States. We think this probably will allow a stronger, fall-like front to arrive in our area a couple of days before Halloween. Because this is still 7 to 10 days away we cannot have total confidence, but it does seem likely to occur. This would probably bring us a few nights in the 50s.