In brief: There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but we can be confident of unseasonable heat through Thursday, and then the likelihood of some showers and thunderstorms on Thursday evening into Friday as a weak front approaches Houston. After that? Well, we’ll see.

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Overall pattern

Despite a fair amount of cloud cover, Houston’s high temperature reached 84 degrees on Tuesday, falling just short of setting a record high for the day. With persistent high pressure holding on for a little while longer I expect today and Wednesday to be the warmest days of the week, and we almost certainly will break the city’s record high temperature for today, Nov. 18, which is 84 degrees. Wednesday (85 degrees) is also in play.

Later this week, by Friday, a weak front is going to sag into the area. As a result of this we’ll see healthy rain chances beginning on Thursday, and these may persist into the weekend. We also will probably see some slightly cooler and drier air, but our region will remain unseasonably warm into next week. Most of our model guidance is still pointing to a more significant cooldown by around Thanksgiving, or shortly after.

Tuesday

We are seeing a bit of patchy fog across the area, and this is not surprising because temperatures are in the upper 60s with dewpoints to match. So yeah, it’s pretty sticky. Highs are going up into the mid-80s for most of Houston, with some upper 80s possible west and north of the city. It’s not even gonna be a dry heat. Lows tonight will be similarly sultry, with another chance of patchy fog.

Wednesday

Expect another warm and humid day, albeit with more clouds. This may limit highs to the mid-80s for much of the region. Dewpoints in the 70s will certainly be sticky. As we start to see the atmosphere become a little more turbulent some slight rain chances, perhaps on the order of 10 to 20 percent, will enter the forecast. Lows on Wednesday night will, again, be quite warm.

Thursday

As a front advances into central Texas we’ll start to see increasing rain chances on Thursday, although they likely won’t pick up until the afternoon hours, and odds will be best Thursday night into Friday morning as the front moves in the Houston region. Highs on Thursday will likely be in the low- to mid-80s.

So what will the front bring? I’m afraid I can’t offer a whole lot of clarity at this point. I do think we’ll see a line of showers and thunderstorms, but I’m not super concerned about severe weather. Can we rule it out? Not yet, but again the overall dynamics are not super favorable for strong storms. In terms of rainfall I expect most of the area to pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches, but there is a risk for higher accumulations.

Friday

You would expect a cold front in November to bring some significantly colder air, wouldn’t you? Well, in this case you’d be wrong. Highs on Friday are still likely to be in the lower 80s. I think we’ll also see some lingering showers throughout the day, call it a 50 percent chance of rain. Eventually I think we probably will see some drier air filtering in to the region, but I’m not at all convinced how much we’ll see. So the forecast from this point on is pretty uncertain. But for now let’s call for lows on Friday night to be in the lower 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Both of these days probably will bring partly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 70s—or thereabouts. Saturday and Sunday will each have a modest chance of rain, perhaps 20 to 40 percent. Lows likely will be somewhere in the range of the upper 50s to lower 60s, but again this depends on the extent of the front. I could see a scenario in which lows only get to the upper 60s.

Next week

The first half of next week will probably see highs somewhere in the 70s and lows somewhere in the 50s or 60s, with decent daily rain chances (50 percent, maybe?). Much of our guidance is still pointing toward a more significant cooldown by around Thanksgiving, but whether that means lows in the 40s or 50s is not yet clear.

All in all this forecast has been pretty unhelpful, I realize. But the fact of the matter is that our best models have been waffling around some, and whether Friday’s front stalls over Houston, or offshore, is going to matter a lot to our weather for this weekend and beyond. I hope to provide you with more clarity in tomorrow’s forecast.

Fundraiser

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In brief: In today’s post we discuss record heat in November, with a couple of days this week likely breaking high temperature marks. Houston is also going to finally see some meaningful rainfall this week, likely beginning on Thursday, ahead of a front.

Heat and drought

Let’s start with record setting daytime warmth for Houston. Monday through Thursday of this week are going to bring high temperatures in the mid- (and for some locations) upper-80s. Here are the city’s current record highs for these days, along with forecast highs in parentheses.

• Nov. 17: 86 degrees (85)
• Nov. 18: 84 degrees (87)
• Nov. 19: 85 degrees (86)
• Nov. 20: 84 degrees (85)

The record warmth is coming as the Houston region continues to advance toward a severe drought. According to the latest data from NOAA, through mid-November the region has received only about 10 to 50 percent of normal rainfall during the last two months. Much of the region has received almost no rainfall during the month of November. It’s very dry outside.

During the last 60 days most of the Houston region has received 10 to 50 percent of normal precipitation.

With all of that said, cooler temperatures and more rainfall are finally in the forecast. Rains will arrive by Wednesday or Thursday of this week, and we should begin to cool down some by this weekend. Longer term, by around Thanksgiving or shortly thereafter, we could see significantly colder weather.

2025 fundraiser update

Before getting into this week’s forecast, I wanted to thank everyone who has donated to our annual fundraiser so far. We have had a tremendous start, and are about 40 percent toward our goal to support the website and app during the coming year. For more information on how to donate, or buy merchandise, please visit this page.

Monday and Tuesday

These days will be uncharacteristically sticky for mid-November. The first two days of this week will more or less see a continuation of the warm and humid weather the region experienced this weekend. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid-80s for much of the city, with inland locations pushing into the upper 80s. Skies will be partly sunny. With dewpoints in the vicinity of 70 degrees it will be very sticky outside. Additionally, as overnight lows only fall to around 70 degrees, we probably will see some patchy fog develop. Winds will be light in the morning, but increasing to 10 to 15 mph during the afternoons.

Wednesday

We’ll see more clouds on Wednesday, and this should cap high temperatures in the mid-80s. We’ll also see a slight chance of rain, but I would only put the likelihood in the ballpark of 10 to 20 percent. Nighttime temperatures remain warm and muggy.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances will increase to 50 percent, or higher, on Thursday as a series of disturbances begin to pass overhead. Highs Thursday will depend on the extent of rainfall, but I expect most of the area to reach the low- to mid-80s. This somewhat rainy pattern will continue into Friday. At some point, and I confess the timing is not yet clear, a front is going to push through the area. This probably will be on Friday at some point, and bring with it a line of showers and thunderstorms. Overall conditions with the front don’t appear to favor anything too severe, but we’ll be keeping an eye on things. Highs should be in the vicinity of 80 degrees on Friday, depending on the timing of the front.

Saturday and Sunday

Our weather this weekend will depend on the strength of the front, and there remains some question on just how much cooler and drier air will reach Houston. I think there will be a decent amount, but we shall see. For now let’s go with highs in the 70s and lows on Saturday and Sunday night in the 50s, with lower humidity. I also think both days will continue to see a decent chance of rain showers, but again this will depend on where and when the front stalls. So the bottom line is that our forecast for this weekend is uncertain: could be mildly warm and rainier, or a little cooler with less rainfall. Stay tuned. In terms of rainfall accumulations I expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 4 inches through Sunday.

Next week

Our somewhat cooler and less humid weather should persist through the middle of next week. By around next Thursday—yes, Thanksgiving Day—there are hints in some of our models of a stronger front arriving. It’s far too early to say whether this colder air will arrive by Thanksgiving, or a day or two later. However, if you’ve been pining for some colder nights. It does look like we could be about 10 days away from this.

In brief: Near record high temperatures will settle in over Houston, along with a burst of high humidity early next week. Our next front is penciled in for Thursday, with a good chance of much needed thunderstorms showing up in the current forecast.

Bush Airport hit 83° yesterday, 3 off the record of 86° set 20 years ago. Today’s record of 89° looks pretty safe as well. But get used to these low to mid-80s because they’re going to be with us over the next 5 or 6 days.

Today through Sunday

The next three days will be cut from the same cloth. Expect sun, some clouds (especially in the morning, along with perhaps some patchy fog), and warm, humid conditions. We’ll probably do low to mid-80s today and tomorrow and more firm mid-80s on Sunday. An isolated sprinkle or two can’t be entirely ruled out, as well as some drizzle in areas with morning fog. I’m mainly mentioning that because we don’t want to be told that we mist the forecast.

Monday and Tuesday

We really dig in on the humidity here. That may be the only thing that prevents us from hitting the upper-90s. Gulf moisture starts to pool over the area, allowing dewpoints to push closer to 70° at times, while precipitable water, or the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere goes from about 1 inch or so on Sunday to 1 to 1.5 inches Monday to 1.5 to 1.75 inches Tuesday.

More humid air heats up slower than dry air, so there’s probably a functional limit to how warm we can realistically get Monday and Tuesday. Some model guidance is very bullish, pushing us close to 88 degrees, but I think we’ll settle in the 84 to 86 degree range away from the coast most days, close enough to threaten or break records but not outlandishly hot for mid-November. An isolated shower is possible Monday with a slightly better chance for isolated showers on Tuesday. Most folks will remain dry, but some will see a passing shower.

Later next week

Models are settling on Thursday as cold front day next week. While this looks like a quick moving system, it does look like it will be fairly moisture-laden, which is good because we need rain. Severe drought coverage expanded from 23 percent to 35 percent in the Houston area week over week based on yesterday’s drought monitor report.

We continue to see extreme drought bubbling up west of Sealy and Wharton. So any rain will be welcome. Thursday’s front looks interesting on some model guidance in that it may have some element of severe weather risk. It’s too early to speculate much but the basic ingredients seem to be in place. Bottom line? Expect a cold front on Thursday that could perhaps be accompanied by some noisy thunderstorms and locally heavy rain. More to come.

Behind that front, much cooler weather arrives, though at this point it looks to fall short of what we saw earlier this week. Expect highs in the 60s and low 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s most likely. We will continue to fine tune things a bit. At least it will be closer to average for November.

Fundraiser

Our annual fundraiser continues, and we want to thank all that have purchased items or contributed to the site. Your support ensures that we can provide quality information year-round, in the good weather times, and in the inevitably bad weather times. For more information on how to donate or purchase merchandise, please visit this page. Thank you so much again for your support!

In brief: In today’s forecast we talk about our warm weather across the next week, and when it should start to rain again. We also venture into the perilous mists of long-term forecasting, and issue a preliminary prognostication for Thanksgiving Day in Houston.

Thanksgiving forecast note

Yes, at the end of today’s post we are going to take a stab at forecasting the weather for Thanksgiving this year, which is a full two weeks from today. It’s a little mad to try and do this because, as a general rule, forecasts are usually pretty accurate out to five days, and have some value from five to 10 days out. And after 10 days, well, sometimes forecasters can be a little more accurate than throwing a dart at a wall. Sometimes. We’re going to take our best shot anyway.

The reality is that, because we own and operate Space City Weather independently, Matt and I have complete editorial control. We don’t work for anyone but our readers—that’s you. So we can do zany things, and take chances, and have some fun. That’s why our annual fundraiser is so important. If you can support us, please do. If you can’t that’s totally fine as well. We understand this economy isn’t helping everyone.

Thursday

Lows across most of the region this morning are in the vicinity of 60 degrees, nearly 10 degrees above normal for mid-November. And still, this will be the region’s coolest morning for the next week. That’s because high pressure has moved in, and will remain more or less in place, allowing for a persistent, warm-ish pattern. Highs today will reach about 80 degrees across the area, or slightly above. Winds will come from the southeast, mostly light, but gusting up to 20 mph during the afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with the potential for some patchy fog to develop.

Friday

This will be a mostly sunny day with a high generally in the low 80s. Friday night will be mild, in the mid-60s, with the potential for fog. With dewpoints around 60 degrees it will be somewhat humid, but not excessively so (just you wait, it’s coming). Rain chances remain near zero.

Saturday and Sunday

Sunshine will continue, with highs in the mid-80s (possibly nudging into the upper 80s on Sunday). A front will approach the area, but wash out before moving into the region. Nights should remain in the mid-60s for most. Rain chances will be low, perhaps 10 percent, for each day. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

The first half of next week looks rather warm and humid. We’ll see another boost in atmospheric moisture, and this will nudge the humidity levels up. Monday or Tuesday could see a dewpoint near 70 degrees, which is extremely humid for this time of year. High temperatures will likely be in the vicinity of the mid-80s, with partly cloudy skies. Nights will be warm and mild. This increasing moisture will lead to some low-end rain chances, perhaps 20 to 30 percent on Monday through Wednesday.

Then, about a week from now, there is general agreement in the models that some sort of front is going to push into the area, bringing better rain chances and cooler air. Since this is about a week out our confidence is lower in the details. But I’m hopeful it will bring an end to the anomalously warm pattern for November, and also some needed rainfall.

Thanksgiving week

So what does the weather look like a full week after that? We are now entering the danger zone for forecasting. With that said, there is a rough signal in most of our best model guidance for a somewhat stronger front to move into the area about 10 days from now, in the vicinity of Sunday, Nov. 23. This would set the stage for a pleasant week, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees and nights in the 50s. My official forecast for Houston on Thanksgiving Day therefore calls for a high of 68 degrees, with partly cloudy skies, and a 30 percent chance of rain. It will be fun to see how wrong this is two weeks from today.