Monday marked the first time in more than three weeks that the high temperature in Houston did not reach at least 90 degrees, but now we’ll put our brief flirtation with somewhat cooler behind us as high pressure begins to build over the area today. Perhaps the biggest question about the forecast from now through the end of the work week is whether highs in the days ahead will reach the mid- or upper-90s.
Also, be on the lookout later today for a tropical update from Matt. There is nothing imminent, but we want to keep readers apprised of what we’re thinking and seeing as we look ahead over the next week or two in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. When we get into July, we probably will begin posting these on a weekly basis, and then probably more frequently during the peak periods of August and early September.
Most of Texas will be in the 90s Tuesday. In a few days there will be more 100s. (Pivotal Weather)
Tuesday
There isn’t much movement in the atmosphere today, which means that despite a fairly moist atmosphere any shower development should be scattered at best. High resolution models are indicating the best chances for rain may come down near Matagorda Bay, or to the northeast of the Houston metro area. In any case, for the most part we should see a mostly sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-90s.
Overnight rains and storms—there were definitely some impressive lightning displays late Sunday and early Monday—have largely moved to the coast and offshore. Most of the region saw 1 to 3 inches from Sunday through this morning although a few locations, including parts of Montgomery County, saw totals of nearly 4 inches. One benefit of Sunday night’s storms is significantly cooler weather this morning, with rain-cooled lows in the upper 60s for much of Houston. Enjoy this while it lasts.
Rain totals for the 24 hours prior to 6am Monday. (Texas MesoNet)
Monday
The atmosphere is pretty worked over, so although some light rains will be possible today, we’re unlikely to see any real storm activity except near the coast (seas offshore are choppy, to say the least). With lingering clouds, however, temperatures today may only rise into the mid-80s for most of the region. Houston has reached 90 degrees every day so far this month, so that would offer a nice reprieve from the summertime heat we’ve been experiencing. Skies should be partly cloudy tonight, with lows in the mid-70s.
The Houston region appears likely to see an increasingly wet period beginning later this afternoon through at least Tuesday morning as atmospheric moisture levels spike above normal, and the absence of high pressure allows for the formation of showers and thunderstorms. To be clear, we’re not really expecting any significant flooding for most people—at least not beyond some street flooding—just the potential for several rounds of storms. Check the radar later today before embarking on any outdoor plans.
Severe storm outlook for Sunday and Sunday night. (NOAA)
Unfortunately, it is hard to offer too much detail, as there is not great agreement among the high-resolution models about what will take place later today, tonight, and Monday. At a best guess, the potential for heavier rainfall should remain to the west of Harris County, and north of Montgomery County, through the early afternoon hours Sunday, but after that all bets are off.
NOAA forecast for total precipitation for now through Tuesday morning. (Pivotal Weather)
At some point we are likely to see showers and potentially stronger thunderstorms sag into the metro area—moisture levels may peak after midnight tonight for central and coastal areas of Houston—and this will lead to better rain chances. At a best guess, most of the region will see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall through Tuesday morning, but as always there will be the potential for higher isolated totals, and some people are likely to miss out entirely. Most of Houston hasn’t had much, if any measurable rainfall in 11 days so some precipitation will be welcome for most.
We’ll be watching things later today and will update if needed.
After a week that saw one of the longest June stretches of relatively comfortable humidity in recent memory, we will shift back into the thick of summer today and this weekend.
Today & weekend
Look for sunshine and some clouds today. We’ll top out in the low-90s once again, and humidity, though still relatively low for June, will begin to inch upwards. As of 5 AM, we ended a streak of 71 consecutive hours at Bush Airport with dewpoints of 70° or lower.
#Houston wrapped up a 71 hour streak of dewpoints of 70° or lower at 5 AM this morning.
Beginning tomorrow, with the humidity back in force, we can expect clouds, sun, and at least a few showers or a thunderstorm along the sea breeze as it lurches inland in the afternoon. I suspect most of us will be dry Saturday, but you’ll want to have the umbrella nearby to be safe. The morning starts in the mid- to upper-70s, and the afternoon will top out in the low-90s.
Sunday poses a trickier forecast, as the environment looks a bit more favorable for scattered showers and thunderstorms inland. We’ll likely see some activity along the sea breeze again as it moves inland from the Gulf, but we’ll also see a scattering of inland storms, especially north of I-10 and west of I-45. Temperatures will be a little warmer in the morning Sunday, bottoming out in the upper-70s or near 80 degrees. The afternoon should be near 90° where it rains or in the low-90s elsewhere.
Air quality, dust, and wind
I want to briefly focus on some other issues this weekend.
Air quality: Another ozone action day is in effect today, which means air quality is going to be unhealthy for sensitive groups. That said, it should not be quite as high as it was yesterday because winds should be a little stronger today. But those in sensitive groups (particularly elderly, children, or folks with lung or respiratory ailments) should take it easy and try to stay indoors when possible, especially in the afternoon.
Air quality is again forecast to be in the “unhealthy for sensitive groups” criteria int he Houston area due to high ozone levels Friday. (EPA)
Dust: Saharan dust! It’s back! Look for the first real Saharan dust cloud of the season to reach our shores Saturday morning. The dust should dissipate on Monday. This should only be a minor dust event, but it could mean the color of the sky dulls a bit; think more gray than blue, even without clouds. Sunsets and sunrises could be a little bit more interesting looking.
Saharan dust will appear over Houston this weekend, though it should not be a significant event. (NASA)
You may notice more haze than usual or even a little irritation if you have allergies or respiratory ailments. We may get another minor dust event around midweek.
