Houston forecast: Little rain, and a wonderful cold front

Saturday, 8:00am CT—As Houston settles into Labor Day weekend, we offer just a quick forecast for the days ahead. For early September, quite frankly, we’re going to have spectacular weather.

Saturday through Labor Day

Because tropical moisture is now expected to remain well offshore this weekend, we’ve lowered rain chances to near zero—with just a chance of a few scattered, sea breeze showers during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with highs around 90 degrees. Normally during Labor Day weekend highs are in the mid-90s with very warm and humid nights.

Tuesday and Wednesday

An approaching cool front may nudge rain chances up a bit, while keeping highs in the upper 80s with some partly cloudy skies. Even if it rains, accumulations should be measured in tenths of an inch, and present no threat.

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning. (National Weather Service)

Thursday through Sunday

We remain confident in the arrival of a cool front on Wednesday, which should bring wonderfully cool weather to the region for early September. We expect highs in the low- to mid-80s through most of the weekend, and overnight lows in the low 60s for inland areas, and upper 60s near the coast. The drier air will feel heavenly.

Tropics

No concerns for Texas at this time. We are now fairly confident that Hurricane Irma will turn northward before it can move into the Gulf of Mexico later next week. We also have some hope that Irma will turn before reaching Florida or the US East Coast, and thus spare those areas of devastating winds and surge. However, the final track of Irma is far from locked in, so areas from Florida to New York should continue to monitor the powerful storm closely.

Posted at 8:00am CT on Saturday, Sept. 2 by Eric

Mostly great weather in store for Houston

Friday, 7:30am CT—As widespread recovery efforts continue across the Houston area, we expect Mother Nature to aid the region in its recovery over the next several days. Amidst the terrible storm, one thing we failed to notice that fall is right around the corner. Well, it’s basically here!

Friday and Saturday

Nice, mostly sunny days, with highs of around 90 degrees. The chance of rain is near zero, and nighttimes should continue to be pleasantly cool—lower 70s—for this time of year.

Sunday through Tuesday

As some moisture returns into Houston from the Gulf of Mexico, we should see an increase in clouds, from a few scattered clouds on Sunday to partly to mostly cloudy skies on Labor Day. This will bring some decent rain chances to the area, especially on Labor Day and Tuesday. But at this time we remain pretty confident that we’ll be measuring accumulations in tenths of an inch rather an inches themselves. Clouds should keep highs in the upper 80s.

Dewpoint map for next Wednesday, at noon, shows the GFS model forecast for the cold front location as it moves southeast. (Weather Bell)

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The tropics are a hot topic, so here’s a roundup

Thursday, 3:30pm CT—I hope everyone is enjoying the pleasant weather. At mid-afternoon the temperature in Houston is 90 degrees, with 45 percent humidity and mostly sunny skies. It is hard to beat this for the end of August. With that said, we wanted to provide a quick look at three tropical systems of interest because there’s been some chatter and concerns about them.

(National Hurricane Center)

Yellow blob near Texas

When we see low pressure systems in the Gulf at this time of year, normally we’re pretty nervous. However a cold front seems likely to move into Texas next week (reaching Houston perhaps by Thursday), and this should keep any tropical mischief south of the upper Texas coast. At this time we do not have major concerns about heavy rainfall next week, although we’ll continue to monitor the forecast. What we are doing is starting to get excited about the season’s first cold front, arriving about two weeks early (if it does in fact make it through).

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Sunshine for awhile, then perhaps the Houston’s first fall front

Houston’s fine weather will continue for the next several days—it’s difficult to believe we’re at the end of August—before some rain chances return. This post will discuss two potential tropical threats (neither of which we’re particularly concerned about at this time) and the increasing likelihood of the region’s first cool front next week.

Thursday through Sunday

Expect perfectly benign, sunny conditions, with highs of around 90 degrees, lows in the lower 70s, and light winds. The overnight lows are courtesy of drier air moving in on the backside of Harvey as it lifts into the Midwest over the next couple of days. Onshore winds resume by the weekend, and there’s perhaps a slight chance of showers on Sunday, but nothing to be concerned about from a flooding standpoint.

According to TxDot and its continually updated map, more roads are opening around Houston as the bayous drain, but plenty of roads remains closed to the southwest and northeast of the city.

Labor Day and Tuesday

By late this weekend, a low pressure system may move into the southern Gulf of Mexico, and the National Hurricane Center says it has a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm or depression over the next five days. Some people on social media have been expressing concern about this storm, but we remain pretty confident it won’t be a significant threat to the hard-hit Texas coast. It’s worth noting that the GFS model (which had been bringing a lot of rain into Houston next week) has now backed way off. See how far the ensemble run of the model keeps the low pressure system away from Texas.

Ensemble forecast from GFS model for tropical low locations next Wednesday night. (Weather Bell)

With that said, we do expect the return of some clouds and rain chances next week, beginning on Labor Day and probably running into Wednesday. Right now I’d say we’re looking at anywhere from a few tenths of an inch of rain to about an inch, most likely. If this forecast changes, we’ll of course let you know.

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