Stormy setup tonight and early Tuesday as a weak front arrives, and what’s that in the tropics?

In brief: There’s a lot going on in today’s forecast, with the possibility of some storms tonight and Tuesday morning ahead of our region’s next front. Then we’ve got an uncertain weekend forecast and the likelihood of a tropical storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico several days from now. We tackle it all!

Stormy setup

Unlike the previous fronts we’ve experienced this fall, a weak front that remains on track for late tonight should bring a line of showers and storms with it as it passes through Houston. The setup is not perfect, so at this time I would only rate it as a 5 out of 10 on the “excitable dogs scale,” but we could definitely see some thunderstorms and strong winds, along with the slight potential for some hail and possibly a tornado. Conditions for storm formation will be more favorable north of Houston.

Storm outlook for Monday night. (NOAA)

In terms of timing, I’d anticipate the storms will reach College Station roughly around midnight, push into the Katy area and Montgomery County around 2 to 4 am, reach central Houston around 3 to 6 am, and push down to the coast by around 6 to 8 am. Note these times are approximate. While the storms should be ebbing by rush hour on Tuesday, I cannot rule out impacts. Some areas may pick up as much as 2 or 3 inches of rainfall as the storms pass from northwest to southeast.

Monday

Today, before the front tonight, we’ll see very warm and windy conditions. We’re talking highs in the mid- to upper-80s for most locations, with very high humidity. Winds will be even gustier than we experienced on Sunday, blowing generally from the south at 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph or perhaps even a bit higher near the coast. There will be the possibility of scattered showers today, much like the region experienced on Sunday. Tonight will be very muggy ahead of the arrival of the front.

Tuesday

After the front passes we may see some lingering showers on Tuesday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Expect daytime temperatures generally in the low- to mid-70s. This is not a particularly strong front, and it will only briefly move offshore, so the period of dry air will probably last from around Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will vary depending on how far you live from the coast, but most of the area should see the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Low temperatures on Wednesday morning. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

As the front moves back onshore Wednesday, humidity levels will quickly recover during the daytime. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Winds will be light. Rain chances are low, but not non-existent. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will only drop into the lower 70s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days with highs around 80 degrees, and mild and muggy nights. Rain chances each day will be on the order of 20 percent.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

It’s possible that another fairly weak front arrives for this weekend, but I don’t have great confidence in that part of the forecast. In any case, it might be a situation where inland areas see some cooler nights and the coast remains warm and muggy. As a best guess, I’ll predict highs of around 80 degrees with low-ish rain chances for this weekend.

Most of our guidance predicts a stronger, truly fall-like front to arrive sometime during the middle of next week, but that’s far enough into the future that I’m not fully confident in predicting it will happen. But there does appear to be a fairly strong signal for colder weather toward the end of next week. It is November, after all.

Tropics

I cannot believe we’re talking about the tropics in early November, but here we are. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area in the Caribbean Sea as a potential tropical cyclone, and if this system develops (which is likely) it will become named Rafael. At first glance, the forecast track might appear to be fairly concerning for Texas, with a tropical storm in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

Official forecast for PTC 18. (National Hurricane Center)

There is a lot of uncertainty over this system’s track over the next week. However, if the storm does make it to the central Gulf, it will find fairly robust wind shear and dry air, which should inhibit strengthening. It would be historically unprecedented to have a tropical storm make it to Texas at this time of year, and much of the modeling guidance keeps the storm away, so it’s doubtful we have much to worry about. My sense is that we may see some higher seas by this weekend offshore, but probably not too many other impacts. Regardless, we’ll be watching closely and keeping you updated.

Haves and have nots in the rain department around Houston yesterday

In brief: After yesterday’s smattering of decent rain in spots, Houston will continue to see at least spotty to scattered showers and storms the next several days. A cool front is expected to disrupt the warm and humid weather early next week, with some uncertainty on just how far through the area it gets. Also, don’t forget to turn back the clocks tomorrow night!

Houston saw a wide range of rainfall yesterday, with a couple of areas clearly cashing in, while others struggled. The big winners were in Richmond, Rosenberg, and just west of Sugar Land, where close to 4 inches fell. Galveston and Brazoria Counties did well also with a general 1 to 3 inches in most spots. Beaumont did well to our east, as did Brookshire to our west. All in all, I’d venture to guess that about 60 percent of you are pleased with what has fallen so far, while the other 40 percent are smarting a little.

Anywhere you see yellow, at least 2 to 3 inches of rain fell yesterday. (NOAA NSSL MRMS)

The good news is that we are not quite done with the rain yet, but the bad news is that it will be very spotty over the next few days.

Today through Sunday

Look for sun, clouds, and a smattering of showers each day. Exactly where and when these occur is impossible to predict, but the environment is supportive of at least a 30 to 40 percent rain chance each day. No need to alter plans, but have a spot in mind to scoot to if it rains for a brief time. Highs will be generally in the low to mid-80s with lows in the 70s and muggy conditions.

Don’t forget to change your clocks! (NWS Houston)

Oh, and don’t forget to set the clocks back an hour tomorrow night. I used to joke that I would have to adjust my temperature forecasts because of “one hour less daylight.” Meteorologist humor.

Anyway, have the umbrella handy but hopefully the rain won’t bother you too much.

Monday and beyond

Next week will be a bit of a tricky forecast. Monday should start off much like the weekend with high humidity, warm, and humid conditions. We’ll continue a chance of a shower or storm. On Monday night, a cold front will approach Houston. It should push through the area, but there are hints in model guidance that the front will probably stall near the coast or just offshore. Assuming that happens, we will turn slightly cooler and less humid on Tuesday and Wednesday. I’d expect highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

A cold front will likely stall near the coast on Tuesday, perhaps allowing the Houston area to turn a little cooler and less humid for a day or two. (NOAA WPC)

Nothing too special there, but it’ll feel refreshing at least! That front may actually come through with a little oomph on Tuesday morning, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a line of thunderstorms douse everyone with a half-inch to inch of rain and some thunder.

After Wednesday, the front will probably push back onshore Thursday, ushering back in warm and somewhat humid conditions before the next front. When will that arrive? Maybe next weekend? We’ll see. Model guidance has been a little wonky in the extended range lately in terms of timing and strength of fronts, so I don’t want to overpromise anything.

Tropics

Yes, it’s November 1st, and yes Houston’s hurricane season is (historically) done. We don’t need to worry about the system in the Caribbean with a 70 percent chance of development.

A Caribbean disturbance has a decent chance of developing into a tropical system next week. While it is unlikely to come to the western Gulf, if you are planning a trip to Central America or the Caribbean next week, you should monitor this. (NOAA NHC)

However, it could be a player in the weather across the western Caribbean next week. We can’t get too specific on anyone’s forecast, but if you’ll be traveling to the western Caribbean or Central America next week, keep tabs on things at our companion site, The Eyewall.

Is Houston’s Halloween forecast a trick or a treat?

In brief: After a long dry spell Houston has finally undergone a pattern change, and we’re now in a period in which there will be a healthy chance of rain for at least the next five or six days. For today, our latest modeling suggests that rainfall will wind down late this afternoon, but there’s a risk of scattered showers at sunset for some locations north of Interstate 10. A weak front next week should bring drier air to the region.

A few housekeeping notes

First of all, if you missed our monthly Q&A we published on Wednesday, be sure and check it out. Dwight Silverman collects questions and every month Matt and I dig into the mailbag and respond to your weather-related queries. Heck, I’d even take space questions if you’ve got them, and I’m sure Matt would love nothing more than to write long encomiums about Rutgers basketball if readers so desire. Which I’m sure you don’t. Because how could you?

The relative humidity at 7 am CT this morning. Fun to run in! Not. (Weather Bell)

I also want to thank everyone who came to the first-ever Space Happy Hour last night at Space Center Houston. It was great to meet so many fans of the site. As a quick reminder, we did not hold a “Fall Day” celebration this year because we’re going to hold a bigger event next year to mark the onset of fall and also the 10th anniversary (!) of the founding of Space City Weather.

If you’re wondering why this post is late this morning, it’s because I’m torturing—I mean training—for the Houston marathon again this year and I had to knock out 12 miles. Let me tell you, running that in 100 percent humidity really, really sucks. Why didn’t I wait for cooler weather this weekend? Because there is no cooler or drier weather coming this weekend. Finally, we’re going to post our winter outlook next Monday, so be on the lookout. We are going to have a winter in Houston this year, right? RIGHT?!?

Thursday

Happy Halloween! I hope your kids aren’t wearing tight-fitting plastic costumes this evening, because those little guys and gals are going to be heading out into some pretty thick humidity. The question is, will it be raining at around sunset?

As of about 7:30 am there’s a fairly robust line of showers to the west and southwest of Houston, and I expect those to move generally eastward today. Throughout the day most of the region should at least see some intermittent showers, with parts of the area likely seeing brief downpours. When it’s not raining we’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with high temperatures likely in the low- to mid-80s.

HRRR model forecast for radar reflectivity at 7 pm CT today. For illustration purposes only. (Weather Bell)

By late this afternoon and early evening, shower activity should be winding down. However there could be some remnant boundaries, along which there will be the potential for some additional showers and thunderstorms between 6 pm and 10 pm. I expect this activity to be fairly scattered, and located north of Interstate 10. So it’s something to be aware of this evening before heading too far from home. No candy is worth tempting fate with lightning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We’ll see partly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s through the weekend. Each day will likely bring intermittent light to moderate showers, possibly with a few thunderstorms. We don’t expect any washouts, but our overall wetter pattern should persist. So have an umbrella handy and a contingency for any outdoor plans if a shower pops up overhead. For the most part, I expect these showers to pass fairly quickly. Nights remain warm and humid, generally in the mid-70s.

We should cool off some next week. But how much? (Weather Bell)

Next week

Oh my friends, I wish I could offer you a clear-cut forecast for next week. But as of yet, such a thing does not exist. Generally speaking, I expect a fair bit of rain on Monday evening and Tuesday of next week, ahead of a front. There’s the potential for areas to pick up 1 to 2 inches with this system, which will do some nice work on the drought if it develops. Then a weak front probably moves through on Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing some drier air and cooler temperatures. For now my expectations are that we might see some lows down around 60 degrees, but that could go higher or possibly lower. There’s a decent chance we get a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air by next weekend, but I certainly would not count on that. Not at all.

The SCW Q&A: Flare-ups, Milton in Houston, land vs. sea, temps vs. storm, old-school maps.

We’re cutting it so close to the end of the month that it’s … scary! 👻 But here’s October’s SCW Q&A post, just in the nick of time! As usual, Eric and Matt address a wide variety of topics from the solar flares and the damage they do; to the damage a Hurricane Milton-type storm might do locally; to classic weather maps with front lines … and more!

Got a question for next month’s entry? Drop it in the comments below, in the Contact link above, or on social media at […takes long breath…] Facebook, X, Threads, Instagram, Mastadon or Bluesky.

Q. Whenever there’s a solar flare big enough to push the Northern Lights as far south as Texas, I always read that they can also disrupt communications and even affect power lines. But I have never seen reports of that actually happening. Are there any instances of flares disrupting these things?

A. I recently wrote about solar storms for Ars Technica, so I’m familiar with the issue. Just to recap: solar storms are triggered when the Sun ejects a significant amount of its magnetic field and plasma into the solar wind. When these coronal mass ejections reach Earth’s magnetic field, they change it and can introduce significant currents into electricity lines and transformers, leading to damage or outages.

NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory images of a solar flare – as seen in the bright flash on the right of each image – on Feb. 16, 2024. (NASA/SDO)

The solar storms we’ve been seeing of late, earlier this month and back in May, were very strong, rated G5 or ‘extreme’ on the most commonly used scale. There have been some modest effects, such as on satellites. But by and large, our planet’s strong magnetic field has shielded us from the worst. The sobering thing to think about is that these recent storms, although strong, are far from the strongest storms imaginable. The most intense geomagnetic storm on record occurred in 1859, during the so-called Carrington Event. If such an event were to happen today, it likely would be rather damaging to our power and telecommunications systems. But just how damaging? We really don’t know for sure.

– Eric

Q. After seeing Hurricanes Beryl, Helene and Milton and seeing all the damage, what would have happened if we had been hit by Helene or Milton? I live on the border of Bellaire and Houston and love living here. I am seriously considering moving.

Hurricane Milton approaching Florida, as seen from NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite at 6:30 p.m. EDT on October 8, 2024. (Image credit: NOAA)

A. What would happen? Bad things. It really depends on where a storm makes landfall, but for the purposes of this question let’s say the storm makes landfall at San Luis Pass (the southern end of Galveston Island), perpendicular to the coast. We’ll focus on Helene, since it was stronger at landfall (140 mph sustained winds). This is what I consider to be a realistic worst-case scenario for the Houston region as it puts a significant storm surge into Galveston Island and Galveston Bay, potentially also pushing a large surge into the extensive chemical facilities along the Houston Ship Channel. This is an environmental disaster waiting to happen.

Worse, however, would be the winds. Such a track and landfall intensity would put a majority of the greater Houston area under Category 1 to 2 winds (approximately 40 mph higher than experienced during Beryl). This would likely knock out electricity not for days, or weeks, but rather months for some people. Damage to roofs and structures would be catastrophic, likely exceeding $200 billion. The long-term consequences of the power outages, future insurance costs, and damage would likely forever alter our community. Sorry for going so negative, but a powerful Category 4 hurricane striking Galveston Island and moving into Houston is exactly the kind of storm that keeps me up at night. I very much hope to never live to see it.

– Eric

Q: I have been astounded by the sheer volume of, for lack of a better term, hurricane denial following Hurricane Milton. Aside from the weather control/manipulation “preposteria,” there has been a great deal of discussion of Milton being a lesser storm at landfall (Cat 1 or tropical storm) than the 120-mph Cat 3 figure given by the National Hurricane Center. The basis for this claim is focused upon observed sustained wind values on land as the storm moved inland. With a storm like Milton, what are reasonable expectations of observed wind speeds given the 120mph max sustained values at landfall? How does the interaction with land affect observations? How do observed values in other storms correlate with NHC figures?

A: This is a great question, and it’s a great opportunity for education. In terms of “weather manipulation,” we’ve already addressed how this is simply not possible to do with a hurricane. So I won’t dwell on that. But there is a huge, huge misconception on hurricanes and wind speed.

Land affects wind speed. Because there’s so much “stuff” on land (trees, buildings, rocks, dirt, etc.) there is friction to slow the wind down. Compare running your hand over the surface of a bathtub to a surface of sidewalk concrete. There’s a difference there. Wind will slow down significantly over land than water. So when you have hurricane hunters measuring the intensity of a storm over water, they’re getting what is basically a “true” capture of what’s happening because the surface winds are dramatically less impeded by friction when they’re over the ocean surface. But every hurricane will have lower wind than that on land. With every storm, we have people, even meteorologists complaining that no one observed wind on land at the levels the NHC said the storm was at. Scientifically, that’s what is supposed to happen! It’s not always easy to explain to people though. Some even say it’s “their” way of hyping up a storm.

Every so often a storm will be able to mix down stronger winds over land, something that is dependent on a number of things. We probably saw this with Beryl here in Houston where we had 80 mph wind gusts make it well inland. That doesn’t mean that Beryl was a category 2 storm at landfall (that will be assessed in the postseason), but it was a case where the measured intensity of the storm over water matched what was observed over land as well.

Map of the NWS Wind Risk outlook from Milton showing hurricane force winds (red and purple) and tropical storm force winds (yellow and orange). (NOAA NWS)

There’s a broader point to be made here that would qualify the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes as an antiquated way of measuring a storm’s true intensity and power. But the simpler point here is that measuring wind is hard, and the system we have now is what it is. So now you know: Friction is usually your friend.

–Matt

Q: Does the surface temperature over land have any effect on how quickly a hurricane/tropical storm abates? Nighttime temperatures fell to the mid-40’s in Asheville, NC. If it had been that cold on September 26-27, would the storm damage have been less severe to any significant extent?

A: Simply put, the answer is that it has little impact. If a hurricane is coming, the circulation ahead of it will almost always usher in warm, humid air concurrent with the heavy rain and stronger winds. In this case, Helene approached from the south and tracked just southwest of Asheville. Because of this, winds were out of the southeast ahead of the storm, which tapped into much warmer and humid air. Had Helene tracked 250 miles east of where it did, winds in Asheville would have been out of the north and it would have been much cooler and less humid. Basically, the track of the hurricane helps dictate the temperature, but the intensity of the hurricane is unlikely to be impacted in any way by the actual land temperature.

Now, land can impact a hurricane via the brown ocean effect. Essentially that’s when the ground is either so saturated ahead of a storm or so much rain falls in front of the hurricane that it acts more like a shallow body of water than land. It also needs to be warm. In that case, a tropical storm’s intensity can ebb more slowly or in some cases it can even maintain intensity. It’s unlikely that happened during Helene, but we have seen that in other storms before. This was most notable during 2007’s Tropical Storm Erin in Oklahoma and north Texas.

–Matt

Q. Love your reporting. Just curious, is there a map that shows where fronts are on the map and their path? I see it on tv weather all the time and with all the talk about fronts pushing through, I was just curious the best way to see those fronts on a map.

A national forecast map for Tuesday, October 29, with frontal boundaries. (National Weather Service)

A. The best such map available online comes courtesy of the National Weather Service, and it is updated daily during the pre-dawn hours. Here’s a direct link to the national map, and here’s the overview page. Note that if you click on the “animated forecast maps” link from this second page you can see a seven-day forecast that includes fronts. Enjoy!

–Eric