Just a quick update this evening to call attention to a large complex of thunderstorms slowly moving across northwestern Harris County, Waller County, and southwestern Montgomery County. Here, unstable air is combining with tropical moisture to produce very heavy rainfall.
The National Weather Service has issued a flood advisory through 1:30am CT on Tuesday morning, and some areas could see 3 to 5 inches of total rainfall from late Monday through early Tuesday. These rains could cause street flooding and potentially threaten some structures in low-lying areas. The primary concern is that as this system gets closer to the coast, and more tropical moisture, the storms could continue to strengthen.
Area of flood advisory in effect until 1:30am CT Tuesday. (National Weather Service)
In terms of motion, the storms seem to be slowly sagging southeastward, and may move deeper into Harris County tonight, possibly toward the central part of the Houston region.
Houston will remain under the influence of a moist air mass during the next couple of days, which will lead to intermittent moderate to heavy rain showers, and cooler-than-normal temperatures. Frankly, this is very un-August-like weather, with widespread rainfall occuring across much of the eastern half of Texas, and highs of around 90 degrees. And for me, that’s a perfectly fine way to get through the dog days of summer.
Monday
A large complex of storms dropped as much as six inches of rain over central Texas on Sunday night, and this morning the system is moving from the west into the Houston region. It has lost some of its potency, but still could produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over some parts of Houston today as it runs into the moist Gulf of Mexico air mass. Other areas should see less rain, but most of Houston should at least see some showers. Mostly cloudy skies should keep highs in the low 90s. A healthy chance of storms will remain during the overnight hours.
The radar at 7am CT on Monday. For Texas, in August, this is a lot of rain. (Intellicast)
Tuesday
With low pressure (yet another advancing cold front that will stall over the area) and high moisture levels hanging around, I expect another day of widespread showers, with some thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall. For most people accumulations should be under 1 inch on Tuesday, but again there could be some localized street flooding issues under the heaviest storms. Highs around 90 degrees.
Most people wouldn’t call the last couple days “awesome.” But then again, most people don’t live through Houston summers annually. We’ve had a couple days of tapping the brakes on our early August temperatures, with official highs of 90° on Wednesday and 89° yesterday. Though they aren’t refreshing days in the literal sense of the word, they’ve offered a nice break from the typical mid-90s broiler we have this time of year. We have a few things to talk about going forward, however.
Today through Sunday
All three days this weekend will feature somewhat similar conditions: Clouds, sun, and a good chance for a smattering of showers and storms each day. Temperatures will continue to be held back a bit. Expect upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon, contingent on exactly where and when showers and storms develop.
In terms of storms, I think the edge for best chance goes to Saturday over today. Occasional disturbances aloft will be moving across the region, giving the trigger needed for more widespread showers/storms the next couple days.
Colors on this animation indicate possible “triggers” for showers and storms this weekend. The best chances will be today and tomorrow. (Pivotal Weather)
Another disturbance is possible on Sunday too, but as of today, weather models suggest that there may be more of a lid kept on storm development Sunday afternoon. We’ll see.
In terms of rainfall, expect varying totals this weekend, as is often the case in Houston’s summer. Some areas may not see much at all. Others could see 2-4″ from a couple heavy downpours. But overall, the rain should be mainly a nuisance than a serious problem this weekend.
Also worth noting, when the sun peeks out, you might notice another batch of Saharan dust in the skies over Texas this weekend. Sunrises and sunsets may look a bit different than usual.
Good morning. Houston’s cloudy, on-and-off again rainy weather will continue for several more days. I’ll also discuss the tropics, which seem likely to begin heating up soon as we’re now into August.
Thursday
Most of Houston saw 0.5 to 3.0 inches of rain on Wednesday, and while I don’t think today will be as wet, I do think the region will see fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms later this morning and during the afternoon hours. Accumulations shouldn’t be too concerning—i.e. they’re unlikely to produce some of the street flooding we saw Wednesday. Temperatures will remain pleasant for this time of year, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.
Friday through Monday
Not a whole lot is likely to change from Friday through the weekend, as a very moist air mass remains settled over the greater Houston region. This will bring partly to mostly cloudy days to the area, and a healthy 40 to 50 percent chance of rain. I don’t think we’re looking at any kind of significant flooding, and accumulations will probably be less than 1 to 2 inches for most areas
The heaviest rains are likely to be offshore this weekend. (Weather Bell)
Overall, the clouds should be enough to hold temperatures to around 90 degrees for the most part. One warning, if the Sun does come out for a few hours over your location, it will turn hot and steamy fairly quickly.
