Summary: Houston faces the prospect of a wet weekend, with the stalling of a cold front nearby. There is the potential for severe weather, in the form of strong thunderstorms and possibly some hail, but for the most part the major watch item is moderate to heavy rainfall. Chances appear to be best from midday Saturday to midday Sunday. Some street flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Friday

A check of the radar this morning reveals fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms to our west, between Sealy and Austin. Some of that activity is expected to work its way into Houston this morning, but we’re likely to see scattered, light showers for the most part. These should clear out by late morning, and I actually expect to see a few hours of sunshine during late morning or early afternoon.

As a result I expect temperatures to briefly pop up into the low- to mid-80s this afternoon. This heating should help produce conditions somewhat more favorable for rain showers late this afternoon and during the evening hours. I’d expect to see some of this activity approach from the west a couple of hours before sunset and then push into Houston.

Rodeo forecast

For the first time in a while this year, we have the potential for some dynamic weather during the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo this evening. It’s no slam dunk, but there is the chance of some rain and possibly strong thunderstorms during the 6 pm to 8 pm time frame this evening for much of the central and northern Houston area. By no means will everyone see rainfall or storms, but the potential is there. As you head out to the show this evening, please be weather aware. Temperatures, otherwise, will be mild, in the 70s. This chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through about midnight.

Saturday

We may well see a reprieve from activity overnight, and into the morning hours of Saturday. But some time, perhaps around noon, we should see rain showers building up over the area. This pattern should persist for about the next 24 hours, with the threat of on-again, off-again shower activity lingering into the middle of Sunday. Not all areas will see heavy rain, and I think there may be a fairly wide variance in rain totals. But most areas can probably expect to pick up between 1 and 4 inches of rain through the weekend. Highs on Saturday will likely top out in the mid-70s, with cloudy skies. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 60s.

Sunday

The overall wet pattern will continue through at least Sunday morning, and potentially into the early afternoon hours as the aforementioned front slowly pushes through the area. Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s, again. We may see some partially clearing skies during the afternoon hours, but we’ll have to wait for the evening or overnight hours for substantially drier air to move in. As a result it now appears as though lows on Monday morning will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Next week

It will be pretty darn nice. Monday and Tuesday should bring at least partly, if not mostly, sunny skies back into Houston. We’ll see highs in the 60s and 70s, with drier air, and lows in the 40s and 50s (warmer near the coast, and cooler inland). The forecast starts to get fuzzy by mid-week, with chances for rainfall returning by Wednesday or Thursday along with highs of around 80 degrees.

Site note

We’ll update on the potential for heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday, and any flooding chances, if necessary.

Summary: Rain is coming, but it’s likely to hold off until Friday. If you have weekend plans outdoors you’ll need to consider them carefully as Saturday, especially, looks rather wet. Significant flooding is not a major concern at this point, but we should see plenty of rain this weekend that will put a damper on activities. Things should clear out by Sunday afternoon or evening.

Thursday

Today is the last day when it probably won’t rain for most of the area, for awhile. A slowly advancing front—still far away from Houston at this point—will nonetheless set the stage for a more disturbed atmospheric pattern. However, the chances of showers and thunderstorms today will be low due to a capping inversion that will likely prevent the atmospheric lift that is necessary for widespread rain. As a result, we’re likely to see just clouds today, with an occasional very light shower. Highs will be in the low- to mid-80s, with gusty southerly winds, and plenty of humidity.

Rodeo forecast

It will be mild heading into the show this evening, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s. While I cannot rule out an isolated rain shower, chances are it will be dry. Winds will still be gusty from the south, but less than earlier in the day. Temperatures after the show will still be in the 70s, and the overnight low is only going to drop to around 70 in Houston. So warm and humid, for sure.

Friday

As the front advances closer to our region, rain chances will improve on Friday. Most locations should have about a 50 percent chance of seeing rain showers, with the possibility of a thunderstorm. While the overall conditions for heavy rain are more favorable on Saturday, Friday is definitely a day to be weather aware. Otherwise, expect cloudy skies with highs of around 80 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks wet, and there’s no real way to get around that. I expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 4 inches of rainfall by Sunday evening, with higher isolated totals. This will be driven by the front, now on our doorstep, in conjunction with a series of passing disturbances. Rain is most likely from Saturday morning through around Sunday at noon, after which chances will start to lessen—so potentially improving conditions for the evening of Saint Patrick’s Day. I’m not expecting much, if any flooding, but it’s something we’re going to be watching out for and we’ll be updating as warranted.

Temperatures will be in the 70s this weekend with mostly cloudy skies. The front finally pushes through on Sunday, likely during the afternoon hours. This will bring cooler and drier weather into the area during the overnight hours, with lows likely dropping into the upper 50s on Sunday night.

Next week

Highs will drop into the 60s and low 70s for the first half of next week, with clearing skies and cooler nights in the upper 40s to lower 50s. If you’ve been wanting to see some sunshine, this will be your chance. A coastal low pressure system may bring improved rain chances back into the forecast by later Wednesday and Thursday, but the details are very from from being set in stone.

Summary: Houston is now solidly back in a warmer pattern, and this will eventually lead to some rain showers. The forecast for this weekend, in particular, is trending wetter. At this point I’d ballpark 1 to 3 inches of rain for most, but there is a risk for higher totals. We’ll be tracking it closely.

Wednesday

The dry air was nice while it lasted, but now Houston will see much more humid air for the next few days. Eventually the increasing moisture levels in the atmosphere will produce some rainfall, but we’re not there yet. Instead, today will just be mostly cloudy with highs in the low-80s. Winds from the south will pick up from the south, at times gusting to 20 or 25 mph. In areas with lots of oak trees, we’re likely to see ‘pollen’ rain, in which tree pollen fills the air as if it were raindrops.

Rodeo forecast

Aside from the breezy conditions, the weather will otherwise be mild heading into the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo this evening. Expect temperatures in the upper 70s with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be just a few degrees cooler after the show, and overnight lows are not going to drop very far. Houston probably will bottom out at only about 70 degrees tonight.

Thursday

This will be a similar day to Wednesday, albeit with even stronger wind gusts. I think we’ll see gusts from the south at up to 30 or 35 mph. This strong southerly flow will be in response to a cold front that is moving into Central Texas. However, I don’t think we’ll see any storms Thursday due to a capping inversion that will prevent all of this warm air at the surface from rising too high in the atmosphere. In the unlikely event that the cap does break, we could see some thunderstorms. But probably not. Highs should again be in the low 80s with mostly cloudy skies. Thursday night will be warm again.

Friday

The aforementioned front is likely to move closer to the Houston metro area on Friday, but stall out to our northwest. This leads to some uncertainty in the forecast, but I think there’s a healthy chance of rain, perhaps 50 percent or higher, during the daytime. Accumulations are likely to be on the order of tenths of an inch, so nothing too significant, probably. Highs, otherwise, will be about 80 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

We’ve had some nice and sunny weekends of late. This will not be one of those. With plenty of moisture in place, and disturbances rotating through, the period of Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon looks rather wet. Most of the area is likely to pick up 1 to 3 inches, but there is a risk of higher end totals than this. Some models have been splashing accumulations of 4 or more inches, especially for areas along and north of Interstate 10. At this point I’m still not too concerned about flooding, but it’s something we’re going to keep a close eye on. In any case, if you have outdoor plans on Saturday or Saturday evening, bless your heart. They’re at risk due to showers and thunderstorms.

Highs this weekend will be in the 70s, with mostly cloudy skies. A front will finally shove all the way off the coast on Sunday, likely during the afternoon hours. This will bring an end to the rain and usher in some cooler and drier air. Lows on Sunday night will likely drop into the 50s.

Next week

Highs are likely to fall into the 60s with at least partly sunny skies by Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the 40s and 50s. There will be a nice slug of drier air for a few days, but the moisture will return by around Wednesday. This will set the stage for warmer weather and it looks like we’ll see some more rain by around Thursday-ish.

Summary: In today’s post I discuss the bluebonnet season, and look ahead to warmer weather and a likely wet weekend. If you have outdoor plans, you’ll definitely want to keep tabs on the potential for precipitation.

Texas bluebonnets

I wanted to say a quick word about wildflowers in general, and bluebonnets in particular. If you’ve driven between Houston and Austin of late you know they’re spectacular. The combination of a very hot summer last year, which thinned out wildflower competition, and a relatively wet winter created near ideal conditions for this bluebonnet season. “On a scale from one to 10, this year looks like it could be an eight, for bluebonnets in particular, if not even better,” said Andrea DeLong-Amaya, of the Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center, in a forecast a few weeks ago.

A reader of Space City Weather, Niloeby Montenoeci, was kind enough to share a few photos taken of late. We are right about at peak season right now, so be sure and check these lovely flowers out.

Tuesday

It took awhile for skies to clear on Monday, but when they did conditions were lovely across the Houston metro area. Today will be a little more humid, a little warmer, and a little more cloudy. We can expect highs in the upper 70s this afternoon, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and light southerly winds. This is the beginning of moisture return that should eventually set the stage for some healthy rain chances later this week.

Rodeo forecast

There should be nothing but fine weather for this evening’s show, with temperatures in the low 70s this evening and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be about 10 mph, so nothing crazy there. Afterwards conditions will be mild, with temperatures in the upper 60s. Lows tonight won’t fall much further, perhaps dropping only into the mid-60s overnight in Houston. Some fog may develop late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

This will be a warmer day, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and highs in the low 80s. Lows will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

A warm day, with highs in the mid-80s and fairly humid air. Some light rain showers are possible, but the overall chances are fairly low due to a capping inversion. If the cap breaks, we may see some thunderstorms later Thursday or into Friday ahead of a cool front.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This initial front is likely to move into Houston and more or less stall near the coast. This means we’ll have a fair amount of moisture in the atmosphere and unstable conditions—a good starting point for rain showers. Daily chances are about 50 percent on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with total accumulations likely of 1 to 2 inches for most of the area. I don’t think this will be a total washout, but if you have plans for the weekend you’ll definitely want to keep tabs on the radar.

In terms of temperatures, we’ll see highs in the 80s on Friday, followed by 70s this weekend for the most part. A secondary push should shove the front offshore some time on Sunday or Sunday night, setting the stage for a cooler start to next week. Lows on Sunday night could drop into the 50s.

Next week

We should begin week in the 60s, with nighttime lows in the 40s or 50s, and some sunny weather. We’ll warm back up some by mid-week, when rain chances resume.