More on Houston’s cooler future

Houston’s got some nicer weather coming for a few days this weekend before we get a little more unsettled next week. I want to go more in depth on the potential for a pattern change starting in mid-November, so there’s a pretty detailed section on that below. Let’s jump in.

Rest of Today

We’re starting off warm again this morning across the region. Galveston is likely to at least tie their record for warmest morning low for this date (74° in 2000).

Another extremely warm morning in Southeast Texas for November. (NOAA)
Another extremely warm morning in Southeast Texas for November. (NOAA)

Expect a mild afternoon with high temps in the low 80s. Scattered showers on Monday focused west of I-45, and then yesterday, they focused mainly between Houston and Lake Charles. Today? There is an organized line of weakening thunderstorms southeast of Dallas this morning, but I don’t quite think those will make it here. Best chance for some steadier rain though would be northwest of a Conroe to Hempstead line this morning. The air over Southeast Texas is pretty stable, so while there will likely be some isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon, especially north or west of the city. I’m guessing most of us will stay dry, but your best bet today is to carry an umbrella as an insurance policy, knowing there’s probably a good chance you won’t need it.

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November’s site sponsor: Innovo IT Solutions

A new month means a new sponsor for Space City Weather, and I’m pleased to announce that Innovo IT Solutions has returned to support the site in November.

Innovo IT Solutions
Innovo IT Solutions

Thanks to their generous support we can provide all of our weather content for free, and without advertisement, for the entire month of November. Here’s a little bit more about their business:

Innovo IT Solutions, LLC is a rapidly growing consulting firm providing professional technology services and Microsoft technology solutions. One of our main strategic objectives has always been to work closely with our customers and become a trusted advisor and a premiere supplier of highly specialized solutions and resources. We work collaboratively with our clients, enables them to leverage technological innovation and achieve maximum results by successful use of people and technology. Innovo’s engagement model includes offshore, off-site and on-site. To meet our client’s needs we have setup a dedicated offshore teams in Philippines and India and have a local technical manager to manage our relationship with our clients.

The advantage of the sponsorship model is that we are under no pressure to generate web traffic for the sake of web traffic—so there’s no hype, no click bait and no nonsense. All we’ll do is continue to make the best possible forecasts we can make. Thank you for considering them for all your IT needs. By doing so, you’ll be supporting this site!

Scattered storms today and Thursday in Houston, spectacular weekend ahead

It’s a very warm morning for early November across the Houston area, with low temperatures ranging from 68 degrees north of Houston all the way up to 76 degrees down in Galveston, which likely will tie a record for a warm low temperature. We’ll continue to see these kinds of conditions, along with scattered storms, for a couple of more days before this warmth finally breaks.

Temperatures as of 6:20am CT. (National Weather Service)
Temperatures as of 6:20am CT. (National Weather Service)

Today and Thursday

The pattern remains more or less the same. With moisture streaming in off the Gulf of Mexico, expect to see more cloudy days, with scattered rain showers. Some areas of Houston, especially west of the city, saw brief, heavy storms on Tuesday, and that pattern should continue for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, high temperatures will reach about 80 degrees where there are heavy clouds, and could climb all the way into the mid-80s for areas that see a bit of sunshine. Overnight lows will remain anomalously warm.

Friday

A cool front will push into Houston late on Thursday or early Friday, but the cooler and drier air will lag somewhat. As I noted yesterday, we’re going to have to wait until Friday evening to really see dewpoints begin to fall and the air to dry out. So expect one more day with highs of around 80 degrees. Rain chances will be near zero.

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How the jet stream is keeping Houston hot and dry

October ended as an usually hot and dry month. Eric covered this a bit yesterday, but weather data from Houston’s Bush Intercontinental Airport shows that 25 out of 31 days were warmer than average, with a measly 0.14 inches of rain recorded for the month. By the end of October, the heat and lack of rainfall produced drought conditions in the eastern third of Texas.

The jet stream

Figuring out why our weather has been so warm starts with analyzing the jet stream. The image below is an upper-air map, showing the state of the atmosphere at 250mb (about 30,000 feet above the ground, or a just above the peak of Mount Everest).

250 mb map showing the location of the jet stream on 30 October, 2016 (courtesy of The College of Dupage)
250 mb map showing the location of the jet stream on 30 October, 2016 (courtesy of The College of Dupage)

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