Labor Day is over, so the cold front watch begins in earnest

Labor Day may have come and gone, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to see an immediate end of summer-like weather. As long-time Houston residents know, the first half of September can often feel almost as warm as August. That’s why, when we get to this point we’re often pretty desperate for the first real cold front of the season, and this year is no different.

Probably the most simple way to define the first “real” cold front is when temperatures fall to 65 degrees, or lower, on or after Sept. 1. This generally weeds out rain-cooled days and anything that isn’t a genuine front. When we do this for Houston, the following pattern emerges for the first fall cold front, with an average date of Sept. 18.

Chart of Houston first 65°F minimum temperature on or after September 1st. (Brian Brettschneider)
Chart of Houston first 65°F minimum temperature on or after September 1st. (Brian Brettschneider)

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Strong, scattered storms likely for Labor Day afternoon

It may have been difficult to discern, but Friday and Saturday morning were a bit cooler and drier for Houston, especially northern parts of the region. Well, forget about that now, moisture began returning on Saturday to raise dew points and storm chances for the Labor Day Holiday.

Houston should see more of the same locally heavy storms that developed on Sunday across the region later today, although there may be some increase in coverage. As the storms should stream through the region at a fairly decent clip I don’t anticipate any flooding, but some areas could pick up 2 to 3 inches pretty quickly (while a few miles away may see dark clouds, but no rain).

Precipitable water levels will be about 140 percent of normal later today. (Weather Bell)
Precipitable water levels will be about 140 percent of normal later today. (Weather Bell)

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A mixed Labor Day Weekend for Southeast Texas

East Texas has been on the dry side of Hurricane Hermine in the Eastern Gulf. Typically we have onshore winds this time of year, but the last couple days, we’ve had winds coming from the north and northeast, ushering in just enough slightly drier air and sinking air to help temperatures surge into the mid and upper 90s (97° officially yesterday). Dry air is easier to heat up than high humidity air, so it’s been a hot couple of days. We’ll begin to transition back to typical late summer this weekend.

Today

Things start to get a little tricky today. Fortunately they won’t have major implications, but it may impact the details of the forecast a bit. A weak cold front to our north will drop southward today. It should essentially stall out and start to fall apart over us or to our north. Combined with the sea breeze returning, those two will act as a minor focus for some showers and storms this afternoon. The best chance for storms today will be west of I-45, but they will be very sporadic and hit or miss.

HRRR model forecast shows very spotty showers this afternoon, primarily west of I-45. (Weather Bell)
HRRR model forecast shows very spotty showers this afternoon, primarily west of I-45. (Weather Bell)

With a little more humidity and onshore flow (and storm chances), we’ll see high temperatures just short of where they’ve been the last couple days. Expect low to mid 90s today instead of the mid to upper 90s of Thursday.

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After one more hot day we’ll cool down a bit for Labor Day Weekend

Houston’s temperatures reached 95 degrees on Wednesday—also known as full summer—and we’ve got one more very warm day before things turn a little cooler, and a little grayer.

Today

With some high pressure over head, mostly sunny skies, and only slim afternoon rain chances today will be another very hot day for the region, with temperatures in the mid-90s. But even for early September, this is pretty typical weather for Houston.

Friday

On Friday a weak front will approach the region from the northeast, and should eventually push through the Houston metro area. Effectively this will increase cloud cover and raise rain chances a bit during the afternoon hours, and some areas may get a few tenths of an inch of rain. The front will moderate temperatures and dewpoints slightly, such that by around sunset, instead of a heat index of 95 degrees, we should see 85 degrees. It won’t feel amazing, but for early September, it should feel entirely pleasing.

A comparison of the GFS model forecast for relative humidity on Thursday night versus Friday night (bottom). (Weather Bell)
A comparison of the GFS model forecast for relative humidity on Thursday night versus Friday night (bottom). (Weather Bell)

(Thank you to Meyerland Animal Clinic for sponsoring Space City Weather this month.)

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