For Houston, winter is coming

Do you remember when I talked about a cold spell arriving around the time of Thanksgiving week? Well, it’s coming a little bit early, beginning on Saturday.

TODAY and FRIDAY

We’ll have two more gorgeous days like Wednesday, with full sunshine, dry air, cool nights and highs in the mid- to upper-70s. This is how fall should feel.

SATURDAY

A strong cold front will approach and move through the area on Saturday. It doesn’t appear as though we’ll see a squall line of storms, or anything like that, but beginning Friday night through most of the day Saturday conditions should be mostly gray, with light rain chances. I don’t expect accumulations of more than a tenth of an inch or two. The biggest change will be winds — gusting to above 20 mph — and colder air. By late afternoon or early evening the temperature will be in the upper 50s.

SUNDAY and MONDAY

Hello winter.

The GFS model is probably overdoing Monday morning's low temperatures, but whooboy it's going to feel cold. (Weather Bell)
The GFS model is probably overdoing Monday morning’s low temperatures, but whooboy it’s going to feel cold. (Weather Bell)

 

After a start to the day with temperatures around 40 degrees, highs on Sunday will struggle to climb out of the 50s under mostly sunny skies. Monday night should be the region’s coldest since early March. Much of the area, at least inland parts, could see lows in the upper 30s. The forecast models have trended lower (see the GFS forecast for Monday morning), but I don’t think we’ll see temperatures get that close to freezing. Still, it’s gonna be CHILLY.

THANKSGIVING

We’ll gradually warm up during the rest of next week and I’d expect highs on Thanksgiving to be in the upper 70s, or so. Unfortunately rain, or even storms, will be possible some days later next week but it’s too early to have any confidence in when.

Cool for the work week, and (potentially much) colder this weekend

As expected Tuesday’s storms blew through with some sound and fury, but didn’t end up doing too much damage. And in their wake they’ve left us with some gorgeous fall weather. This weekend should be even colder.

TODAY-FRIDAY

We’re going to have three gorgeous fall days. Sunny, highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s. Dry air. Moderate winds. You really couldn’t ask for more.

SATURDAY

Late Friday night or early Saturday morning a reinforcing cold front should arrive. This will bring with it a slight chance of rain, but nothing like the showers we saw on Tuesday. However this will set the stage for what will likely be a cloudy, chilly and breezy Saturday afternoon and evening. If you have outdoor plans you’ll definitely want a jacket.

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Severe Weather Risk Rapidly Ending in Houston

As of 12:15, the severe weather threat in and around Metro Houston is now pretty much over, as the cold front has swung through the area (with the exception of places like Texas City, Galveston, and Lake Jackson, where that threat will end by about 1 PM). Rain will continue, heavy at times, behind the front. There could also be some thunderstorms still too, but any threat of damaging winds and tornadoes is shifting off to our east and will continue pulling away through the afternoon.

A map of temperatures tells the story quite well.

The cold front knocked temperatures back 20 degrees as it moved through (Weather Underground)
The cold front knocked temperatures back 20 degrees as it moved through (Weather Underground)

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Mid-Morning Update on Storms

The National Weather Service has expanded and extended the Tornado Watch in Southeast Texas. It now includes essentially all areas north and east of about Sugar Land until 4 PM. A Tornado Watch just means conditions are favorable for possible tornadoes to develop. There’s nothing imminent out there as of this writing, but through this morning, we’ve seen a few storms well northwest of the city quickly flare up and flare back down, showing signs they could be tornadic. So it’s entirely plausible we see a few more spin ups like that occur over the next few hours.

9:40 AM Radar shows squall line west of Houston (Intellicast)
9:40 AM Radar shows squall line west of Houston (Intellicast)

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