Good morning. Houston’s weather will now warm up through the weekend, with some healthy rain chances, before a cold front moves through late on Christmas Eve, or early on Christmas morning. This should bring cooler and drier weather into Houston for the holiday, and most of the week leading up to New Year’s Day.
Fallstreak hole seen near Spring on Tuesday. (Jaime Aguilar)
Before jumping into the forecast I wanted to share a photo from a reader, Jaime Aguilar, who lives near spring. Jaime took this photo on Tuesday morning while out for a walk. It shows a ‘fallstreak hole,’ a fairly rare meteorological phenomenon that occurs when water in clouds suddenly freeze, and falls. This is sometimes induced by a passing airplane. I thought others might have seen this, so I wanted to explain the phenomenon.
Wednesday
Temperatures are starting out in the 50s this morning, and they’ll rise to about 70 degrees today. We’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds, as highs push up to about 70 degrees. Winds will be a bit more prominent, out of the east at 10 mph, with gusts up to about 20 mph. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 50s in Houston.
Thursday
Thursday will be a similar day, albeit with a few more clouds. Lows on Thursday night will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday night, and we may see a few scattered, light showers develop after midnight.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
The weekend will see generally cloudy skies, with a decent shot of humidity, and highs of around 70 degrees or a tick warmer. Rain showers over the weekend will be on-and-off again affairs. Sunday—Christmas Eve—should be the most dynamic day in terms of rainfall and thunderstorm potential as a front approaches the region. I don’t think things are going to get too extreme, as most of the region will likely see 1 to 3 inches of rain through the weekend, but it could be messy at times. Something to consider if you have plans for Christmas Eve.
Forecast high temperatures for Christmas Day in Houston. (Weather Bell)
Christmas Day
The good news is that, increasingly, it looks like the front will be pushed through Houston by Monday morning. This will reduce rain chances on the holiday to about 10 or 20 percent. I’d expect highs to reach the upper 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows on Monday night will likely drop into the upper 40s as cooler and drier air moves in during the daytime.
Next week
Most of next week looks fairly pleasant and winter-like. Most probably we’re looking at days in the 60s, with lows in the 40s, and partly to mostly sunny skies.
Good morning. Houston will have a couple of more sunny days before the forecast turns messy this weekend, with a fair bit of rainfall across the holiday weekend. As for the Christmas Day forecast, unfortunately that’s still a stocking stuffed full of uncertainty.
Tuesday
Today should be a fine winter’s day, with highs in the low- to mid-60s, and partly sunny skies. Our air is starting out rather dry, but with light easterly to southeasterly winds we’re going to see humidity levels start to rebound. We’re still going to see one more night on the cool side, with lows generally dropping into the upper 40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas, before milder conditions arrive for the rest of the week.
Wednesday should provide our last burst of sustained sunshine for nearly a week. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday
This will probably be the last day we see a lot of sunshine for awhile. Highs will reach about 70 degrees, with southeasterly winds that may, at times, gust up to 20 mph. Lows on Wednesday night will be a warmer, perhaps 10 degrees higher than Tuesday night.
Thursday
Skies will be clouding up on Thursday in response to increasing atmospheric moisture levels. But the overall dynamics in the atmosphere won’t favor rising air, so I don’t expect any significant rain showers yet. Look for highs of about 70 degrees, with lows on Thursday night dropping only to around 60 degrees in Houston. Some rain chances may start to creep in on Thursday night, we’ll see.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Conditions turn unsettled for the weekend. We’re confident that highs will be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, lows around 60, and skies will be mostly cloudy. At this point it looks like there will be a healthy chance of rain each day, perhaps 60 to 70 percent. It’s not going to rain continuously, but there should be some on-again, off-again type showers, with perhaps a few thunderstorms. (The overall setup does not particularly favor severe weather, however). Overall rain accumulations during this period are likely to be 1 to 3 inches.
NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for now through Sunday night. (Weather Bell)
Christmas Day
I don’t know!
Like, I’m really sorry. But the models (and humble forecasters) are still struggling with the timing of a Pacific cold front. This is important because the front is likely to generate the most favorable conditions for thunderstorms. If this all passes on Sunday night, then Christmas Day could see clearing and cooler weather. But there is absolutely no consensus for this right now, and we could very well end up with a fairly messy Christmas Day with some showers. Temperatures and humidity, too, are going to be dependent on the front. This is all pretty worthless, I know. It’s like Space City Weather is giving you a fruit cake for the holidays this year.
Next week
At some point next week—Monday morning, Monday night?, Tuesday?—the front will be well and truly passed, and our weather should cool down and settle down. We’re likely talking mostly sunny days, highs in the upper 50s or 60s, and lows in the 40s. This cooler pattern is likely to hold out for the remainder of 2023.
Holiday travel
We realize that not everyone is going to hang around Houston for the holidays. With that in mind, Matt has written a US travel guide over on The Eyewall. Of note are the potential for flooding in California this week, and storms in the Rockies, Plains, and Mississippi Valley on Christmas Eve.
Good morning. Houston will see cool temperatures and mostly sunny skies to start this week, but then we’ll see a distinct warming trend for the second half of the week and the weekend. As moisture levels rise the forecast will bring increasing rain chances. As for what all this means for Christmas Day, well, it’s going to depend on the timing of the next front. Things could get a bit messy if the front moves through next Monday, on Christmas Day itself.
Monday
We’re starting out chilly, and generally in the 40s, this morning. It’s going to be a bright and sunny day, with highs in the upper 60s to nearly 70 degrees. Winds will be mostly light, from the north, at 5 to 10 mph. Really, it should be a very fine day for any outdoor activities. We’ll see one more cold night tonight, with temperatures dropping into the low 40s for much of the region tonight, with a few outlying areas possibly touching the upper 30s.
Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning. (Weather Bell)
Tuesday
With a bit of a reinforcing shot of cooler air on Monday night, temperatures on Tuesday should trend a bit cooler. We’re looking at highs, perhaps, in the low 60s with partly to mostly sunny skies. However, changes will be afoot in the atmosphere as the high pressure that has brought us clear and colder weather pushes off to the east. This will initially result in an easterly flow at the surface, and allow for temperatures to fall to around 50 degrees on Tuesday night.
Wednesday and Thursday
These will be partly sunny days with high temperatures of around 70 degrees. The air will feel a bit more humid as an easterly to southeasterly flow continues. Winds may at times gust to around 20 mph. Nights will be more mild, generally falling to about 60 degrees.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
The weather looks pretty meh for the weekend ahead of Christmas Day. We’re talking highs in the low 70s, cloudy skies, fairly humid air, and warm nights only falling to around 60 degrees. Oh, and the rain chances. As atmospheric moisture levels ramp up we’ll see a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the three day period, on and off. Much of the area could pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain during the time from Friday through Sunday, but that forecast is written in pencil for now.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday night. (Weather Bell)
Christmas Day and beyond
At some point the showers will end, as a cold front moves through and brings drier air into the region. But the timing of this front is still far from certain. It could be on the morning of Christmas Day. It could be morning on the day after Christmas. I don’t know, and I don’t really feel particularly confident at this time. For now I’m going to predict highs in the 60s on Christmas Day with a healthy chance of showers. There may even be some thunderstorms if the frontal passage is a messy one.
I know you’d like to have some more clarity than that. This forecast is a real lump of coal in your stocking. But hey, Santa Claus is the miracle worker not me. After the front moves through, next week does look quite a bit colder, with highs in the 50s or possibly 60s, and nights perhaps in the 30s and 40s. We’ll see.
Last call for holiday lights
If you like to enjoy festive holiday activities while it feels like a winter wonderland in Texas, the next few days are a good time to plan those visits before we experience a warmer period around Christmas Day. Our longtime partner, Reliant, is here to help Houstonians join in the holiday spirit with two fun attractions!
Galaxy Lights, presented by Reliant (runs through January 7)
What better way to get into the spirit in Space City than with Galaxy Lights, presented by Reliant? The only space-themed light show around at Space Center Houston is one of the most technologically advanced light displays in the state, providing Houstonians with an interactive, out-of-this-world experience! Visitors can experience a 200-foot LED light tunnel, two high-tech kinetic light shows, massive models of each planet, and a showing of the original film “Holidays in Space.” Learn more and purchase tickets here.
Radiant Nature, presented by Reliant (runs through February 25)
New to the Houston Botanic Garden this year, a majestic light display celebrates multicultural holiday festivities during the winter season. Unlike most other holiday light displays, Radiant Nature, presented by Reliant, is a stunning visual experience that can be enjoyed night or day. Visitors will experience a traditional Chinese lantern festival with more than 50 larger-than-life installations, including a 200-foot-long illuminated dragon. You have plenty of time to visit as the exhibit will stay open through the Lunar New Year in February. Learn more and purchase tickets here.
Learn more about these events and, if you’re traveling, other holiday events Reliant supports across the state here: https://www.reliant.com/holidays
After a fairly nice day on Thursday, we are back to the cloud thing again today (though the east side might be seeing a good bit of sun initially). A storm system passing through tonight with a cold front will bring most of us some rain, locally heavy at times, before we clear out for the weekend. Read on for the latest on Christmas below as well.
Today
Most of today will be just fine, with nothing worse than some clouds. A passing shower is possible, especially near Matagorda Bay today or north and west of Houston this afternoon, but the rain should hold off for most of today. After 3 or 4 PM, rain chances do start to increase. Highs will be in the upper-60s to low-70s. Also look for some breezy conditions today, especially over the water and at the coast.
Tonight
The exact timing of the rain will vary from place to place, but generally look for a northwest to southeast progression of rain this evening after about 5 to 6 PM or so. Rain will fall through the night, heavy at times, especially north and west of Houston I think. There will probably be an axis of maximum rainfall that sits north and west of Houston, from Columbus to Conroe to Lake Livingston.
Rain totals will vary a bit, but the highest amounts will fall north and west of Houston and offshore. (Pivotal Weather)
In that area, we’re expecting 1 to maybe as much as 2 inches, with slightly higher or lower amounts depending on exactly how things set up. For most of the city and suburbs, rain will push through but totals will vary a bit more, perhaps as little as a quarter-inch to as much as an inch or so. This will extend south and east until you get to the coast. Some locally heavier rainfall could fall near the immediate coast or just offshore. Some rumbles of thunder and some ponding on roads are certainly possible tonight, but we are not expecting severe weather or significant flooding. Lows will be in the 50s.
Saturday
Any showers should clear the area in the early morning, leaving us with clouds. We should see at least partial clearing during the day Saturday, but temperatures probably won’t get too far past 60 degrees in the afternoon.
Sunday & Monday
Both Sunday and Monday look like a great pair of early winter days. Expect sunshine with lows in the low-40s and highs in the low, maybe mid-60s.
Tuesday through Thursday
We don’t expect any significant weather for the middle of next week, but look for varying periods of sun and clouds. Days that are cloudy will be in the 50s to low 60s, while days with sun will pop into the mid to upper-60s. Morning lows should remain generally in the 40s to perhaps 50s by Thursday.
Piecing together the Christmas period
The Christmas weekend continues to look mild and potentially unsettled. Initially, look for warm weather and probably clouds and some sun with a slight chance of showers Friday and Saturday. It’s tough to pinpoint exactly what the story is next weekend, but between maps and charts, we can start to make some assumptions. Atmospheric moisture is likely to increase in Houston beginning Friday and Saturday. Right now, the European ensemble mean for precipitable water next weekend is around 1.25″ in Houston, which puts us fairly close to the 90th percentile of atmospheric moisture. In simple terms: There will be a good deal of moisture available to produce clouds and showers next weekend in the area.
Atmospheric moisture is forecast to peak around Saturday or Sunday in Houston, already predicted to be a good bit above normal. (Weather Bell)
Moisture doesn’t mean a whole lot unless there is a “trigger” to produce rain and storms. The best setup for that looks to be in interior Texas next Friday and Saturday, but that will march eastward Sunday and Monday, which seems to imply some sort of cold front.
So what’s it all mean? Expect clouds and some shower chances Friday and Saturday with a greater chance of rain on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. Temperatures are likely to be a good deal above normal, with highs in the 70s likely, followed by colder weather after Christmas. We’ll see how this plays out over the weekend and update you with the latest on Monday!
