It has been cold during the last week, but we still haven’t had really, really cold weather yet. Houston’s first Arctic front may come later this month, however. We are certainly due.
LATE FREEZE?
Houston first freeze climatology. (Brian Brettschneider)
Houston is more than a month late for its first freeze of the season. Since the official weather station moved to Bush Intercontinental Airport in 1969 the first freeze has come, on average, on Dec. 1. It’s never been later Jan. 5th, according to data collected by Brian Brettschneider. That’s tomorrow.
TODAY and TUESDAY
Conditions today and Tuesday will be similar to Sunday, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 50s. Tuesday morning will be cold, but I expect most of the area to remain above freezing. If that’s the case this winter will bring the city’s latest freeze since the 1960s.
Good morning. One more gray day before the Sun returns. We’ll also see better chances for heavy rain next week.
TODAY
Light rain showers are moving into the region from the southwest, and I expect that by this afternoon or evening most parts of the Houston area will see at least some mist, if not light precipitation. Nothing to write home about, though, and highs will struggle to reach 50 degrees.
SUNDAY
The aptly named Sunday will see the return of the Sun. Finally. After a cold start at about 40 degrees, highs will climb into the mid-50s. Should be a really nice day after what we’ve been experiencing.
MONDAY-TUESDAY
Partly to mostly sunny skies and cool days in the 50s will remain the order of the day through Tuesday afternoon or evening. Tuesday morning will be quite cold under clear skies, but I don’t think most of the Houston metro area will reach freezing temperatures. We’ll at least be close, however.
It’s a chilly morning with temperatures in the upper 40s across most of Houston, and we’re not going to warm up much for the next several days.
TODAY
New Year’s Eve will remain, for the most part, gray and cold with highs only in the mid-50s. If there’s an upside it’s that I expect most areas will not see much, if any rain this afternoon and evening during the hours of revelry. Any rain that does fall will be light. However conditions tonight will be cold, and with a 10 to 15 mph northerly wind it will feel like about 40 degrees out.
GFS model forecast for wind chill temperatures at midnight tonight. (Weather Bell)
NEW YEAR’S DAY and SATURDAY
The New Year is going to start out cold and gray. Both Friday and Saturday will struggle to reach 50 degrees as cold air moves in from the north. Skies will remain leaden, with light rain possible day and night. Accumulations should be slight.
SUNDAY
After a cold morning with temperatures possibly falling into the upper 30s our skies should finally clear, leading to a sunny day with highs in the mid-50s. Do not be afraid of the big, bright orange ball in the sky. That is a normal condition.
NEXT WEEK
After sunny and cool conditions on Monday and Tuesday the forecast remains a bit tricky for next week. Although I’m fairly confident we’re going to continue to see winter-like temperatures in Houston, the second half of next week could see some decent rain chances. We’ll have to wait and see.
Having turned 42 this year I decided to try and run a marathon for the first time. Perhaps it was a way to push back against father time. Certainly registering for the Houston Marathon proved a cheaper antidote to a mid-life crisis than buying a fancy convertible.
As I trained this fall I soon discovered the importance of weather in distance running, and most critically humidity. Cold and dry weather made running 10 or even 15 miles a breeze. (Well, sort of.) But even in December, when dewpoints were in the upper 60s, running five miles was pure misery. So I feel you when it comes to weather on January 17.
We’re still 19 days from the Houston marathon, and the major global forecast models only run out to 16 days. Truth be told, they have very little accuracy after about 10 days, so we’re still more than a week away from what might be considered a “moderately” accurate forecast for the marathon. With that said we can draw some inferences from seasonal weather models, which I will now do.
NOAA makes monthly forecasts, and right now its outlook for January calls for a slightly better chance, than average, for colder-than-normal temperatures in Houston. But this isn’t terribly helpful because the first half of January could be freezing cold, and the second half somewhat warmer than normal. When we’re out there sweating our butts off on the morning of the Houston marathon, we won’t care if it was 25 degrees the week before.
Fortunately some seasonal modeling has higher resolutions than this. One of the models is NOAA’s Climate Forecast System (v2) which makes temperature predictions for 5-day chunks. Here’s its latest forecast for the period of January 16 through January 21st. Reading the map below, it shows temperatures a good 6 to 7 degrees F above normal for Houston.
