In brief: Today’s post discusses a weak front arriving by Thursday or so, and explains why this is called a backdoor front. After this we have zero weather concerns for the weekend before calm weather persists for most of next week.

What is a backdoor front?

We are not speaking here of “backdoor” in the sense sometimes alluded to in popular music, from the Doors to Sabrina Carpenter. After all, this is a family friendly website. No, when we talk about a backdoor front it refers to the direction that a cold front typically arrives from.

Most commonly we observe fronts coming out of the north or northwest as a frontal systems drops into Texas from the Great Plains, and down to the Gulf coast. The strongest of these kinds of fronts is sometimes called a “blue norther,” but we usually don’t see these until December, if at all during the winter.

By contrast, a backdoor cold front is a front that approaches from the east or, more commonly here, the northeast. We often see these during the early fall and late spring time frame. And so it will go this week, as a high over West Texas drags drier air into the eastern part of the state. At this point it looks as though the greater Houston area will see a decent shot beginning Thursday evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Skies will be mostly sunny for the next two days, with much of Houston reaching the lower 90s during the afternoon hours. Areas far to the west and north of Houston may reach the mid-90s, whereas the coast should be a few degrees cooler. Winds, generally, will be light from the east. On Monday afternoon we saw a few isolated pockets of showers, and I think that will again be the case today and Wednesday, although overall chances are likely 20 percent or less. (Crazy to think, but these are probably our best chances for rain until at least early next week). Lows will only fall into the mid-70s, with a fair bit of humidity.

Thursday

The aforementioned front arrives on Thursday, and it likely will bring no precipitation with it. However, it will usher in drier air from the northeast over time. We’ll feel that in the form of northeasterly winds on Thursday, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph. Highs will be about 90 degrees, with lows Thursday night likely dropping into the 60s (see forecast map below).

Friday

This day should see the driest air of the week, with relatively low humidity and highs in the upper 80s for most locations. Skies will be pure sunshine. Lows Friday night should again drop into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring more sunshine, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. If you have plans for outdoor events you have zero weather concerns aside from the need for sunscreen. Lows will drop to the vicinity of 70 degrees. Humidity is not exactly low, but it won’t be high, either.

Next week

Most of next week should bring more sunshine, with highs of around 90 degrees, lows around 70, and moderate humidity. Rain chances look to be near zero before next weekend, when some kind of pretty decent front could arrive. We don’t have any firm details or high confidence yet, I’m afraid.

In brief: Houston’s late summer heat will continue this week, but a modest front should bring some drier air by Thursday or Friday. We have a chance of a stronger front in a little more than 10 days, but no promises. We also have details about our special Fall Day celebration I’m excited to share.

Fall Day

Admittedly the next few days will not feel much like fall in Houston. But that has not stopped us from preparing for Fall Day, and we want to invite everyone to come out and partake in the festivities on Saturday, October 25th. This year’s gathering is extra special as we will be celebrating the 10th anniversary of the site!

Here are some of the great things we have planned:

• Meet and greet with Space City Weather team
• Free tote bag giveaway to first 100 visitors
• Chalk wall for guests to share their favorite Houston weather memory
• Free face painting
• Exclusive sale of 10th anniversary t-shirts (see logo above), not available at any other time
• Lawn games
• Art activities for kids
• Coffee and snacks available for purchase
• Reliant tent with giveaways
• Free 360 photo booth

Fall Day is simply a gathering to celebrate the end of summer in Houston—to enjoy the outdoors and look ahead to cooler days. This year we have reserved the entirety of Midtown Park, 2811 Travis, in Houston. The event will be held from 10 am to Noon. If you can let us know you’re coming by signing up here, it would be great for planning purposes. But it’s not essential. See you there!

Monday

Our late summer-like weather will continue for much of this week before some kind of front, probably fairly weak, arrives by Thursday or Friday. Until such time our weather will largely be driven by high pressure. For today that means high temperatures of about 90 degrees in the city of Houston, with higher temperatures to the west and north of the city. Winds will be light, generally from the east to northeast. Skies will be mostly sunny. Overnight lows will be sultry. Dewpoints of around 70 degrees will be sticky, especially for October.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be the warmest days of the week, with high temperatures likely in the lower 90s in Houston, with the possibility of mid-90s for far inland areas. I don’t think we will quite get to record highs in Houston (95 degrees on Tuesday, and 96 on Wednesday, but we’re going to get close). Rain chances will be low, perhaps 20 percent each day along the sea breeze. This doesn’t look like much, but it may offer our region’s best chance of rain for the next 10 days.

Thursday and Friday

By Thursday or some drier are should start to work its way into Houston. This probably will lead to high temperatures of around 90 degrees, with lows in the upper 60s. Sunny skies prevail.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same for the weekend, with sunny skies and highs of around 90 degrees. Dewpoints look to be a bit lower, in the 60s. So while it will be warm, it won’t feel like full-on summer. Rain chances remain low to non-existent.

Next week

The headline of this weather update promised “hints” of cooler weather. We are going to get some of that this weekend with a weak front. Well, most of next week should bring continued highs of around 90 degrees. However, toward the end of next week I do think we have a decent chance of seeing a stronger front. I’m not ready to write this in ink for a variety of reasons, such as it being 10 to 12 days out, and our late summer heat has been pretty persistent. But I do think fall has a pretty OK chance of breaking out late next week.

In brief: Hot weather will persist with increasing humidity this weekend. Shower chances remain low but even those will increase a tinge as we go through the weekend and into next week. Our next front may (or may not) pass through late next week or weekend. We also assess where we stand with drought in the area today.

If you’re like me and absolutely loathe this period between August and true autumn, it actually has not been a terrible stretch of weather. Yes, it’s hot, but the humidity levels have been quite tolerable each day, and it has not felt totally miserable. The humidity levels are now expected to increase, albeit slowly ahead of our next front, which may or may not arrive by late next week.

Today through Monday

Shower chances will slowly increase through the weekend. These are going to be isolated showers, nothing widespread and probably nothing you need to really plan around. You may just get rained on for a few minutes, particularly near the coast this weekend but possibly farther inland by Monday.

It will be hot, so if you’re attending any outside events this weekend, such as the Southern Smoke Festival just make sure to stay hydrated. Highs will be near 90 with lows in the 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday

We could see temperatures increase a degree or two here, but otherwise, it looks like status quo from this weekend. Just hot, humid, and a minor chance of passing showers each afternoon.

Later next week

We still see at least some model support for a cool front, maybe more like a humidity front later next week or weekend. Eric gave it about 30 to 50 percent odds yesterday, and I think that stands pat today right around there. We’ll continue to watch.

Drought?

We’ve had a dry week. We’ve had little to no rain, and despite shower chances peppering the forecast going into next week, it does not look like most areas will see significant rain at all. So are we heading toward a drought? The answer is maybe. We saw some degradation in conditions with yesterday’s report, but the vast majority of our region still remains outside of drought.

The only areas in technical drought are just west of the Brazos River. Most of the Houston area remains normal or just abnormally dry. If dry weather persists, we’ll probably see this expand in the coming weeks or months. But with drought, it’s a long game usually. We’ll see.

In brief: Today’s post discusses the subtle change in our weather pattern that will control our region’s conditions over the next week or so. Houston is still going to be warm, but not sizzling hot. Rain chances return to the forecast, but overall they remain fairly low. And when are we getting the next front?

A little cooler, a little more humid

After today, Houston’s flow will become more easterly in response to a trough of low pressure offshore. This will mean an increase in winds, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph or higher during the afternoon. In recent weeks the daily winds have been quite a bit less than this for the most part. We are also going to see dewpoints rise from about 60 degrees during the afternoon to the upper 60s (at least) by this weekend, and this will make afternoon temperatures feel more humid.

However this increase in atmospheric moisture will cause daily highs to be a few degrees cooler, and produce a few more clouds. By Friday we should see the possibility of some light showers returning to the forecast, but overall chances will still only be on the order of 20 percent. We will remain in this new pattern for about a week, at least, before the chance of a front to shake things up.

Thursday

As mentioned today will be a little bit hotter, with sunny skies, modestly drier air, and northeast winds. Highs will be in the lower 90s in Houston, with mid-90s possible to the west (and possibly north) of the city. Rain chances are near zero. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

With a more easterly flow in place, these will be more humid days, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. There will be a few clouds, and a slight chance of some afternoon showers. Winds may also turn a bit gusty from the east-southeast, up to 20 or 25 mph.

Next week

The pattern for this weekend more or less remains the same for the remainder of the coming work week. If you squint at the ensemble models there appears to be a decent chance for some kind of front by Thursday or Friday of next week, with the AI version of the European model among the more bullish solutions. At this point I’d lay odds of 30 to 50 percent of seeing a cooler and significantly less humid turn in our weather by next weekend. So at this point it is something to hope for, rather than bank on.