In brief: More of the same is expected over the next few days in Houston, with cool-ish mornings and very warm afternoons, along with a good bit of sunshine. The weather pattern changes for a time next week toward humid with rain chances. Then, perhaps we can await our next front.

About 800 miles separate the two portions of Texas that have done well in the rain department this month: The mouth of the Rio Grande and the tippy top of the Panhandle. New Mexico has outperformed Texas, even with some serious flash flooding there recently.

But in general, we are far from alone right now in this dry pattern. The next couple weeks will bring us more of the same but also some potential for change, particularly next week. I think looking at the European ensemble for low temperatures the next two weeks shows how the pattern splits into 3 differing acts of weather.

Act I: The stable period through Sunday

Over the next several days, things will be pretty calm. We can expect daytime highs in the upper-80s, just a couple degrees shy of daily records. But if you want some autumn flavor, the mornings will remain fairly cool, in the 60s. These temperatures are still solidly at least 8 to 10 degrees warmer than usual. Rain chances will remain nil. We will get a weak reinforcing shot of drier air Friday that should extend this weather through at least Sunday and possibly Monday.

Act II: Revenge of humidity and rain chances

Next week sees a change. We’ll have both more unsettled weather and increasing rain chances, as well as much more humidity. Overnight lows will likely shift into the low-70s, about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal, while daytime highs will hold steady or even fall a few degrees due to clouds and rain chances.

I think we want to be realistic about rain chances next week. In a drought, sometimes you find ways to fail, and while I would still expect at least an inch or so of rainfall from scattered thunderstorms next week, the heavier rains, the 2 to 4 or 5 inch totals will probably be confined to a narrow corridor somewhere in the area along or northwest of highway 59. Something we will continue to watch. The European operational model shows this well below as a possible example of what could occur.

Regardless, we will see just a warm, humid, un-autumn-like week next week.

What this means for Halloween remains partially unclear. There will almost certainly be a chance of rain, but it will almost certainly also be warm. So plan for warm right now, but check back with us on the rain chances which may not become clear until early next week.

Act III: Additional autumn?

After next week’s pattern shift, we could see a return to something more typical for autumn. I would say there’s probably a 40 to 50 percent chance of a meaningful cold front around next weekend. The exact timing is uncertain, but there’s enough signal in the models for us to think there’s a decent chance. We’ll keep watching.

In brief: Today’s post discusses why the month of October is often one of Houston’s wettest months of the year, but definitely is not in 2024. We look at our continuing warm daytime temperatures through the weekend, and the possibility of finally seeing some rain next week.

State of play

With high pressure more or less in place for the forecast period, we’re going to see warmer than normal days into early next week. However, the overall flow will be somewhat drier, so we’re going to see dewpoints lower than is customary in Houston. The net effect is that daytime temperatures will warm more rapidly, but nights will be a bit cooler than we might otherwise expect. Unfortunately, the overall atmospheric pattern will remain dry through the weekend as well, continuing our very dry October.

To date, the city has recorded 0.0 inches of precipitation this month. That’s surprising, because October is often one of the wettest months of the season. The historical average is 5.46 inches of rain, which ranks as the second wettest month, behind only June. Why is this month often so wet? We sometimes see late-season influxes influxes of tropical moisture earlier in the month, and often the fronts sweeping down in later October bring storms with them. We have seen none of that this year.

Tuesday

High temperatures today will reach the mid-80s for much of the area, although a few inland parts of Houston may push into the upper 80s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with a light easterly wind. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the week. High temperatures will depend on your location, ranging from the lower 80s near the coast, with the upper 80s in much of Houston, and pushing 90 degrees further inland. Days will be hot, but with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s, the air will feel modestly drier. Overnight low temperatures drop into the 60s for all but the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

You guessed it, more sunshine. Highs will remain mostly in the upper 80s, with lows in the 60s. The chance of inclement weather is basically zero, so if you have outdoor activities planned, you can feel pretty good about them. Provided you bring sunscreen, of course.

Next week

The sunny pattern continues into Monday, after which time we are likely to see the atmosphere become a bit more disturbed. This should lead to the development of some clouds by Tuesday, and some decent rain chances by Wednesday. I don’t want to over-set expectations, and no one should be expecting a few inches of rainfall to put a dent in our emerging drought. But the very dry pattern should finally begin to break during the second half of next week. The models are all over the place in terms of temperatures, so I don’t have much confidence in the weather for Halloween yet. If pushed, I’d guess that high temperatures are somewhere in the lower-80s, but I feel like that could be a trick.

In brief: The forecast for this week is fairly boring. If you like dynamic change you’re out of luck, as our days for at least the next week will be rather warm, sunny, but with modestly drier air. Nights will be somewhat cool, but definitely not chilly. Although rain chances are essentially zero for the next seven days, but there starts to be some hope for precipitation after that.

A cool spell ends

The second half of last week produced the region’s first run of cooler-than-normal temperatures since early September, with a couple of days with high temperatures in the 70s, and a few nights in the 40s and 50s. This provided a nice preview of fall-like weather, but our daytime highs are headed back into the upper 80s later this week.

However our nights will remain a touch cooler, with slightly drier air from the northeast helping to cool us off into the low- to mid-60s most nights. As for rain, we’ve been talking about how dry things have been, and that is not going to change this week. However, I have some hope for some change in a little more than a week from now.

Monday

High temperatures will reach the mid-80s today, with sunny skies. Winds will generally be from the east, at about 5 to 10 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny, but with dewpoints in the 50s, the air will feel fairly dry. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 60s tonight. Clear skies should continue to prevail.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

There won’t be much change in the weather this week after today. Each day will see mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s near the coast, upper-80s for much of the city, and about 90 degrees for inland areas. The air will be modestly dry, and this will help push highs so warm (90-degree days in late October are no unheard of, but they’re quite rare). Lows will drop into the low- to mid-60s for most locations away from the coast, so nights and evenings will be pleasant.

Saturday and Sunday

Not much changes this weekend. A (very) weak front may push highs back down into the mid-80s, and take a degree or two off nighttime temperatures. But we should continue to see sunny days and cool-ish nights. If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, you can make them with confidence.

Next week

The forecast for next week is uncertain. There are hints of a front in the Monday timeframe, or possibly later in the week, but I don’t have great confidence in any of that happening for sure. However, we may finally see a break from a pattern in which high pressure prevails. Most of our modeling guidance does suggest that Houston may start to see some better rain chances by around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Now that’s nine or ten days into the future, so I would not set out your cisterns just yet. But it does provide some hope after a very dry fall.

In brief: Today’s post assesses the emerging drought across the Houston region, and takes a peek at the winter outlook to see whether we are likely to see relief in the coming weeks and months. We also discuss the fine weather in store for this weekend, and the rather hot conditions expected next week.

Houston enters drought

For the first time since last December, the majority of the Houston area has returned to drought conditions as measured by the US Drought Monitor. For now, most of the region has been classified as a “moderate” drought, but even with shortening days and cooler temperatures, the trend lines are not good.

It’s been a weird year. Houston has fallen into a drought even though the region remains about 10 inches above normal rainfall totals for this year. That’s because we had an exceptionally wet spring and first half of summer, punctuated by Hurricane Beryl in July. But since the beginning of August, and especially since early September, Houston has been almost bone dry. This has coincided with almost uniformly sunny days and warm-to-hot temperatures. As a result, we’ve gone from very wet soils to increasingly dry ones.

So what happens next? The next week looks to remain dry, with only very low rain chances. Maybe the pattern changes after that, but at this point there is no strong signal in the models, and persistence is the most likely outcome. Maybe we’ll see a decent shot of rain around the end of the month, but again this is really at the limit of what our best modeling can predict.

Looking deeper into fall and winter, we see a slowly developing La Niña in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Historically, this favors a drier winter across Texas. The only good thing I can say about a drought during the winter months is that it does not take all that much rain to break it—with shorter days and a lower Sun angle, a little rain goes a long ways. Unfortunately, I don’t even see a little rain in the foreseeable forecast at this time. We’ll continue to look for signs that is changing.

Friday

For my tastes at least, Thursday was one of the very nicest days of the year weather-wise. We’re now going to start warming up, but with dewpoints generally in the upper 50s the air will continue to feel comfortable. At least by Houston standards. High temperatures today will be about 80 degrees, with mostly sunny skies, and easterly winds at perhaps 10 mph with higher gusts. Lows tonight will drop into the low 60s for most locations away from the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see high temperatures in the lower 80s, for the most part, with sunny skies. Low temperatures should continue to drop into the lower 60s, which generally means comfortable if not cool weather. Really, we have no concerns for you if you’re planning any outdoor activities. Just be mindful of the increasing number of burn bans across the region, due to the emerging drought discussed above.

Next week

Pretty much all of next week looks warm, with highs starting out in the mid-80s and ending up in the upper 80s. Some locations probably will hit 90 degrees toward the end of next week. We’ll see a few more clouds in the sky, and rising humidity levels. Unfortunately, the last full week of October is unlikely to feel fall-like at all. The heat may extend into next weekend.