R.I.P. Spring, 2019

It is difficult to quantify a “nice” Spring, but it sure seems as though the last couple of months have been quite pleasant in Houston, Texas. We’ve had a few storms, which is normal for spring, but mostly we’ve seen partly to mostly sunny weather, fairly dry air, and cool but not cold nights.

But now, the party’s over. I’m sorry to report that Spring, 2019, died this weekend. As recently as Sunday morning, lows were in the low- to mid-60s for much of the region, but starting this today we’re going to see a string of mornings in the 70s, with May and then June right around the corner. Spring was 75 days old.

Average temperatures during the last 60 days have been near or below normal for most of Texas. (NOAA)

Monday

After a lovely, sunny weekend, we’ll see the return of partly to mostly cloudy skies today, although there still should be enough sunshine to allow high temperatures to push up into the mid-80s. The bigger story will be the return of onshore winds, which may gust up to about 20 mph this afternoon from the south. With muggier air and mostly cloudy skies tonight, low temperatures on Tuesday morning will only fall into the low- to mid-70s for the region.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The mid-week will be mostly gray, with only a little bit of sunshine. High temperatures will push into the mid-80s, and lows will only fall into the low 70s. With all of this moisture you’d expect some rainfall, but chances are likely only going to be in the 20 to 40 percent range, with mostly light rainfall due to a capping inversion over Houston. The potential for heavier rain, of perhaps 0.5 inch or more, will exist for inland areas such as the Brazos Valley, but closer to Houston I’d expect only very slight accumulations.

Thursday and Friday

The forecast for the end of the week lacks clarity. With all of the southerly winds this week, we’re going to see very high levels of atmospheric moisture over Houston, but it appears as though a cool front (and its associated lift) will stall before reaching the region. Therefore, while we can’t rule out some dynamic weather to end the work week, mostly likely we’re looking at light- to moderate rain showers in Houston, with area-wide accumulations of perhaps a few tenths of an inch. Highs will be in the mid-80s, with lows getting down to around 70 degrees.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. (Pivotal Weather)

Saturday and Sunday

It is hard to have too much confidence in the weekend forecast, although at this point Saturday looks wet, with more on-again, off-again mostly light showers, while Sunday may see some clearing skies. At this point—and it’s early, so don’t hold us to this—Sunday looks to be the better day for outdoor activities with some clearing skies, sunshine, and highs perhaps in the 80s. At this point we’d be thrilled with one nice day for the upcoming weekend.

9 thoughts on “R.I.P. Spring, 2019

  1. Josh

    It seems like every possibility for some substantial rain before summer has been hampered by this capping inversion. Is it normal for it to be so persistent this time of year? Why has it not affected the northern parts if the state as much?

    1. Eric Berger

      The upper-level troughs associated with our cold fronts this spring have generally had a somewhat northerly track, bringing the better lift and related dynamics for heavier rain over those areas.

    2. Moe N DeLawn

      Does the potential for torrential, widespread flooding rains like we saw on Tax Day 2016 continue to exist for Houston in the summer, or is that a spring phenomenon?

      Obviously tropical storms make it possible during the summer, but to be clear I’m referring to non-tropical weather, like we saw then.

  2. Wendy Petruzzi

    Not just a weather forecast, but humor
    And good writing too! You guys deserve a raise. Thanks for the unexpected morning chuckle.

  3. Mike

    You folks put other weather people to shame. Thanks for this great sharing of information so we can plan our activities.

    Question: it seems the time period of September 2018 through March 2019 had been one of wettest in several years. Could y’all comment on whether this is indeed the case?

  4. Blackhawks Fan

    Any chance you could keep the 60-day temperature departures around here purple (or is that magenta…) for about the next 6 months? Just askin’.

    And please…need rain bad…

  5. CAROL P

    Eric, several days ago you mentioned that the sun’s angle is about the same now as it is in August. So why is it that August is so darn much hotter? And stay hot for quite a few weeks after that?
    Thank you!

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