The Houston region appears likely to see an increasingly wet period beginning later this afternoon through at least Tuesday morning as atmospheric moisture levels spike above normal, and the absence of high pressure allows for the formation of showers and thunderstorms. To be clear, we’re not really expecting any significant flooding for most people—at least not beyond some street flooding—just the potential for several rounds of storms. Check the radar later today before embarking on any outdoor plans.
Unfortunately, it is hard to offer too much detail, as there is not great agreement among the high-resolution models about what will take place later today, tonight, and Monday. At a best guess, the potential for heavier rainfall should remain to the west of Harris County, and north of Montgomery County, through the early afternoon hours Sunday, but after that all bets are off.
At some point we are likely to see showers and potentially stronger thunderstorms sag into the metro area—moisture levels may peak after midnight tonight for central and coastal areas of Houston—and this will lead to better rain chances. At a best guess, most of the region will see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall through Tuesday morning, but as always there will be the potential for higher isolated totals, and some people are likely to miss out entirely. Most of Houston hasn’t had much, if any measurable rainfall in 11 days so some precipitation will be welcome for most.
We’ll be watching things later today and will update if needed.