In brief: Houston is enjoying significantly cooler temperatures this morning, in the 50s, with lower humidity. November-like weather should now persist for awhile across the region. The biggest forecast question is whether the atmosphere will line up to support rain showers this weekend, or not.
A sustained pattern change
A cold front arrived on Tuesday, on schedule, bringing much needed rainfall to the Houston region. Not everyone benefitted, but a solid chunk of our area picked up at least 0.5 inch, and some locations received 1 inch or more. Our region’s drought is not over, but these rains (and maybe more in the coming days) should tide us over until the winter, when El Niño should bring us a wetter pattern overall.
In terms of temperatures, Tuesday felt incredibly muggy on Tuesday, and we hit 88 degrees. It tied a record high for this date, so yeah, it was incredibly sultry for early November. This was due in part to a fair amount of sunshine, but also a feature known as compressional heating. Effectively, the front compressed and heated the air ahead of it as it advanced upon Houston.
But now, it’s gone. We may get back close to 80 degrees for highs on Thursday and Friday of this week, but for the most part I expect our highs to be in the 70s, and lows in the 50s through next week. Super nice!
Prediction context
Now that we’re getting deeper into fall and closer to winter, I wanted to provide an update on a prediction contest we announced way back in March. We were having our last really cold night of the season (the temperature hit 33 degrees in Houston) then and I asked you to predict when we might get that cold again. We haven’t gotten close yet to 33 degrees, and I don’t see any likelihood of it for the next two weeks. But I did want you to know I haven’t forgotten about this, and we’ll be keeping a close eye on things!
Wednesday
Today will be gorgeous in Houston. No notes. Expect highs in the mid-70s, sunny skies, and low humidity. Lows tonight will drop into the 50s.
Thursday and Friday
The onshore flow resumes early Thursday, and this will allow temperatures to push into the upper 70s on Thursday, with a little bit more humidity. Skies will be mostly sunny. Another front will push through on Thursday night, and there is a slight chance of rain with this as it moves into Houston (but probably not, as there just isn’t that much moisture to work with). We should see modestly drier air on Friday, with highs in the upper 70s, and lows Friday night around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.
Saturday and Sunday
Humidity levels will continue to fall this weekend, but I’m still having some trouble pinpointing down the forecast. Temperature-wise, I’m pretty confident in highs in the lower 70s on Saturday, with overnight lows falling into the 50s on Sunday morning. By Sunday we should max out in the 60s for high temperatures.
The thing I’m struggling with is rain chances due to the potential for a low pressure system in the atmosphere to pass nearby. A lot of the modeling keeps it pretty far away, but some of the AI guidance brings it closer to southeast Texas. For now I’m going to go with a 10 percent chance of rain on Saturday, and 40 percent chance on Sunday, but we could just as easily see a couple of partly sunny days with no rain this weekend, or more widespread showers on Sunday. Matt will be along with posts on Thursday and Friday to hopefully sort this out.
Next week
I think Sunday and Monday nights will see some of our coldest temperatures of the season so far, with much of Houston falling down near 50 degrees, and areas further inland likely getting into the 40s. After this we should see a slow warming trend next week, but will likely remain in the 70s/50s pattern through Thursday or Friday, at least. There’s also the possibility that rain chances start to improve later next week, but I am making zero promises there.
