In brief: A tricky forecast awaits for Sunday in the Houston area, with at least some rain possible. The heaviest rain seems destined for Laredo or Corpus Christi, however. Look for unsettled weather early next week, but rain totals will vary a good bit across the area between now and then. Some cooler weather this weekend will shift warmer again next week.
Today & Saturday
We kick off the weekend on a positive note today with another generally nice one. Look for sun, a few passing clouds, and highs in the lower 80s. More clouds will impact Saturday, so it will be a bit cooler. We’ll start the day in the low to mid 60s, then warm into the mid to upper 70s with a mix of clouds and sun. No rain is expected tomorrow, but a few spots may see some mist or drizzle.
Sunday
Our most interesting weather day this weekend is Sunday. I will add the disclaimer here that the forecast is subject to change, and if it does significantly change, we’ll post tomorrow or Sunday morning.
The main culprit in the weather risk this weekend will be an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that cuts off from the jet stream over northern Mexico. When that happens, you basically get a slow moving storm system above our heads that allows for periods of rain and storms in spots.
An interesting wrinkle to this forecast is that a day or so ago, it looked like this would cut off and progress east a bit into our area by Sunday. Today it looks as though it wants to hang back some, more toward El Paso and the Big Bend. What this means for Sunday is that we’ll probably see showers around the area, but I am skeptical that we see a washout. Heavy rain is likely near and south of San Antonio or down toward Victoria. The question is whether or not there’s enough oomph to carry that stuff northward toward the Houston area.
So we’ll see how this all shakes out. For now, I’d expect at least some rain on Sunday but your mileage will vary on how much; better odds southwest, lower odds northeast. Highs should be in the 60s to near 70 or so.
Early next week
Shower chances will probably continue into Monday, if not Tuesday in the area as the upper low pushes through. Rain amounts will be quite sporadic with many places seeing little to no rain and others seeing perhaps closer to an inch.
The European ensemble forecast above of total rainfall shows the potential for maybe a half-inch in the Houston area on average. Some places, especially north and east will see less. Some places south and west may see more if the heavier rains can move in on Sunday or Monday. The bullseye for this event looks to be somewhere between Laredo and Corpus Christi.
Temperatures will warm up a bit, back into the 70s with lows mainly in the 50s.
Later next week
I don’t want to speculate too far in advance given that there are a lot of moving parts at the moment, but I would lead toward at least a temporary bump up in temps again toward next weekend with a chance of rain back in the forecast sometime later in the weekend or early the week of November 16th.
