Lost amid the concern about Hurricane Laura over the last week is that summer pretty much has chugged along and late August in Houston is doing late August things. Saturday’s high temperature reached 101 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and the dew points of around 80 degrees on some recent mornings have just been gross. The question in everyone’s mind, therefore, is when will it end? The flippant answer for long-time Houston residents is November. But the real answer is that, just maybe, we’re about 10 days away from the region’s first real cool front.
As we’ll discuss in the post below, our weather for the next week remains hot. But about 10 days from now there are hints in the global models of a decently strong cold front arriving in the Houston area. There are a couple of reasons for skepticism: We get a lot of “mirage” fronts popping up in the models at this time of year that falsely advertise the arrival of cool fronts, and this one would be about two weeks earlier than normal for Houston. On the other hand, this front has been fairly consistent in the model forecasts. At this point, therefore, I would say there is about a 50 percent chance of a nice front pushing into Houston about 10 days from now. That is not a guarantee.
Monday
Welcome to a new week, with plenty of more heat. Today will see partly to mostly sunny skies across the region. Some moisture has surged into the region, and this probably will be enough to generate some short-lived showers and thunderstorms for about 30 percent of the area. Southerly winds will be noticeable, gusting to about 20 mph. Unless showers cool you off this afternoon, expect high temperatures to get into the mid- to upper-90s. Overnight temperatures will remain very sticky.
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
For now we don’t anticipate a whole lot of variance across these three days with partly to mostly sunny skies and daily highs in the mid-90s. We can’t entirely rule out some showers on the northwest or northern periphery of the Houston metro area, but for the most part we’re going to see no rain. Nights will be sticky and warm.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
By this weekend some clouds enter the forecast and a front over north Texas may help to generate some showers over Houston. But for now the weekend forecast remains fairly uncertain—except for the fact that we can probably count on plenty of heat.
Tropics
I wrote a quick post about the tropics on Sunday, and our general thinking remains the same. While there are lots of areas of interest across the Atlantic Basin today, we still don’t see too much to be concerned about when it comes to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Matt will have more in his weekly tropics post on Tuesday.
With the first front on the way this early, the TX Hurricane season might be coming to a close sooner than later.
Or this front could, like so many in the past, just whimper out leaving the door wide open. I would tend to believe more business-as-usual, front or no front. I would be highly skeptical that this would be the start of the “front train” that shuts down the Gulf for a while.
We shall see. The last October cane to landfall the area was Jerry in 1989. Before that was Juan in 1985 when it meandered near Sabine Pass.
Jerry was fun. Eye past right over where I was living.
Thank you Eric for confirming what long time Houstonians already know; ie don’t look for anything dramatic in the way of cooling until November. However I do appreciate your optimism and empathy that we need a bit of relief in the heat and you have given us a ray of hope for a cool front coming through shortly. As always thank you for your updates.
Certainly I am not looking forward to the months of darkness, which will be even darker due to the insanity that is being foisted upon us, and the stress, isolation, violence and social problems.
Thank you both, Eric and Matt, for such consistently good, solid information about what to expect…combined with a little psychological support for those of us who don’t do our best in the heat! Your expertise and empathy are very much appreciated.
Just wanted to thank you guys for all of the coverage. I have been a little anxious at times but your post got me through.
Thank you is simply not enough but at least you get the feeling behind it.
With sincere appreciation,
Vickir
Houston summers die a long, slow, miserable death…
Yup, longtime Houstonians know not to get too hopeful for “early” cool fronts. Better to accept that it will be hotter for longer (thanks, global warming!) and then be pleasantly surprised by cooler weather.
Without modern A/C, I would have bailed out of here decades ago. I don’t mind less daylight in our winter months – less sunlight means less heating and one can always put another layer of clothes on. The opposite is not true; at a certain point, you’ll be arrested for having too much skin showing.
Lived the first half of my life in four season country, enjoying weather changes, lots of different outdoor activities, and the marking of time. After moving to Houston I, too, have spoken similar words Jingle Jangle used in this second paragraph, to the naysayers of wintery weather. Grateful for our private backyard pool and the relief it often provides me here.
Thank you so much.
I walked outside to leave for work at 5:15 this morning and was ready to swim the fifty feet to my car. Absolutely, utterly disgusting. But I’m a native, and I am, if not used to it…used to it. Thank you for your hard work!
When I went out for my morning walk at 5:55 this morning, it was 83.4F according to my poor excuse for a weather station in the back yard. Ughust is not going quietly.
More ammo, along with all of last week, for the “why do I live here?” argument.
I remember the early front shortly after Harvey. It was a God send for many reasons. Hopefully this one comes to fruition.
Is Frank from KPRC2 throwing a dig out there with his article about “the models” and “the lessons we learned?” The tone seemed catty to me. If not appropriate to reply, no worries; I was just bothered.
Link to article:
https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2020/08/31/a-few-laura-lessons/