Storms possible Wednesday, then splendid weather for Houston

Good morning. We’ve basically got one day to worry about—Wednesday—in what will be a week of otherwise quite wonderful weather.

Today

Monday’s high temperature of 88 degrees was a bit warmer than anticipated for Houston, and I’m expecting conditions to be similar today with highs pushing into the upper 80s. We’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies, and winds picking up out of the south, piling up moisture. Lows tonight will only fall to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

The region appears likely to have two chances of rain on Wednesday. During the morning hours, as warm, unstable air moves in from the Gulf of Mexico, we could see some showers and a few thunderstorms. The potential for more severe weather—and according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center the primary threat is hail—will probably come later in the day, after noon, and during the evening hours as a cold front approaches and moves through the metro area. Houston falls under the “slight” chance of severe weather in NOAA’s forecast, which means that while the potential for nasty weather exists, the overall likelihood of it affecting most people in Houston is relatively low. Nevertheless it’s something we’ll definitely keep an eye on for you.

Houston falls under a “slight” risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Wednesday night. (NOAA)

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Forecast models have backed off some of their higher rain totals, but it still appears as most of the area will see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with higher amounts than this possible for isolated areas and closer to the coast. Fortunately, the storms and rain showers should move on through with the front, so this should clear us out by Thursday morning, and limit overall rainfall accumulations.

Thursday through Monday

Once we get through Wednesday, and some breezy conditions on Thursday, Houston’s weather looks exceptional for the end of this week and all the way through the weekend. We’ll have mostly, if not 100 percent clear skies, and highs ranging from the upper 70s on Thursday to the low 80s on Sunday. Overnight lows, too, should remain in the mid- to upper-50s for most of Houston (except the coast) through Saturday morning. This is great, great weather for May.

Posted at 6:50am CT on Tuesday by Eric

4 thoughts on “Storms possible Wednesday, then splendid weather for Houston

  1. Paul Robison

    “The potential for more severe weather—and according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center the primary threat is hail.”

    Eric, do you think there will be massive hail and wind damage throughout Houston akin to what happened in the central U.S. last Sunday? Will power outages be widespread and extensive? Will EVERYONE in Houston hear the roar of thunder, see powerful lightning?

  2. Worrybug

    “Forecast models have backed off some of their higher rain totals, but it still appears as most of the area will see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with higher amounts than this possible for isolated areas and closer to the coast. ”

    Is that good news for Houston, or bad news? And what about those ultra-nasty threats Paul Robison mentioned? What’s your opinion on that?

  3. SkyGuy

    Have you seen the NAM 3KM? Eric. It paints a pretty scary scenario for the area. I would expect ALL thunderstorms in that frontal system to pack serious winds and lightning. The damage may be significant. Your thoughts, Matt?

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