The coast will be wet for awhile, but we’re hopeful about next week

Good morning. Houston’s hit-or-miss rainfall pattern appears likely to continue from now through the weekend. The pattern will include more hits along the coast, and more misses for areas inland of interstates 10 and 69, as the further one is from the Gulf, the less access to moisture there will be.

Thursday

This morning will bring mostly sunny skies to the region, but in what is now becoming a familiar pattern, scattered storms will migrate inland beginning around noon for areas along the coast. Through the afternoon and early evening hours, the storms will then progress across central parts of Houston, and then exit northward. Perhaps 40 percent of Houston will see rain, and a fraction of that will see some fairly heavy, if brief rainfall. The rest of you will see dark clouds in the distance, and perhaps hear the rumble of thunder. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-90s, and this will depend on how clouds develop over your location during the peak heating of the mid-afternoon hours.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Saturday. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday and Saturday

As we’ve been talking about, a plume of more moist air will be moving north across the Gulf of Mexico at the end of this week, pushing up rain chances and likely driving down temperatures into the low-90s. Your weather for the first half of the weekend is going to basically depend on how far you live from the coast. Inland locations such as Katy will probably see mostly sunny days, with higher temperatures and slight, if any rain accumulations. But coastal areas such as Clear Lake or Galveston have a better chance of rain, and may potentially see accumulations of 1 inch or more of rain. Bottom line? Perhaps this isn’t the best weekend to head to the beach.

Sunday

This day should be a little bit warmer, with a slightly less chance of rain as the plume of tropical moisture pulls north, and away from Texas. But at this point I don’t have much confidence in saying whether or not this will be a partly or mostly sunny day.

Next week

The first part of next week looks rather summer-like, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, and rain chances falling back to perhaps 20 or 30 percent each day.

Temperatures are more likely than not to be cooler than normal in a 8 to 14 days. (Pivotal Weather)

The global models are continuing to advertise the possibility of a cool down around Sept. 1—not a particularly striking one as it would be fairly early for a front. However, I would welcome the possibility of lows at night around 70 instead of 80 degrees. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is also starting to hint at this possibility in its 8-to-14 day outlook shown above. Fingers are crossed, but confidence remains fairly low given that we’re still more than a week out and it’s still summer.

15 thoughts on “The coast will be wet for awhile, but we’re hopeful about next week

  1. kztoy

    I’m headed to the beach anyway, hopefully it’ll be a little less crowded.

    No mention of Chantal? Hasn’t it been downgraded to a tropical depression already? Looks like some of the hurricane forecasters had to get another “named storm” to help meet their predictions… I’m certainly happy that they fell short of their usual “gloom and doom” prediction for 2019. Seems to be a pattern as of late.

    1. Ryan

      East beach will be crowded regardless of weather. The AIA Sandcastle Competition is Saturday, rain or shine.

    2. RB

      Prediction for 2017 season: 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major
      Actuals for 2017 season: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 6 major

      Prediction for the 2018 season: 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major
      Actuals for the 2018 season: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major

      I’d save the “falling short” assessment until December 1.

      1. kztoy

        Ryan, thanks for the heads up on the cool East Beach contest.
        Sorry RB, it’s called a “prediction”. And as with NOAA, CSU, et al, predictions can and do change…

        1. RB

          You’re the one asserting their “pattern” has overzealous “of late.” I presented the two most reason seasons as examples of how you’re wrong. Have a pleasant evening.

          1. kztoy

            It was a pleasant work weekend at Crystal Beach.

            I think you’ve actually proven my point. Consider TS Erin. They had to name that one, didn’t they? How many other fishbowl storms did they name in 2017 and 2018? Gotta fluff up the numbers by naming large thunderstorms as Tropical Storms simply because they can… despite the fact that several of these named storms stay in the Atlantic without ever making landfall. That borders on being overzealous, doesn’t it?

  2. Patrick Veljanovich

    If cold fronts are already being advertised for early September, then the Texas hurricane season could be over sooner than later.

  3. Cindy, MCOK

    Thanks for the heads up so I don’t get my hopes up for rain on my corner of Katy! I did get just over an inch of rain Tuesday afternoon so the gardens are looking a bit more spritely. The Head Gardener, however, comes in from cutting back dead plants feeling like she’s one of them.

  4. Monty

    Thanks guys. We could sure use a little more hit but models say how about more miss. Still hanging on to a shred of optimism. But…looks like a maybe next time forecast. Stay safe to all which will see rain.

  5. Rebecca H

    It’s been very dry in Galveston this summer. Rain would be a welcome reprieve for my parched plants at this point. Thanks for always keeping us in the loop, Eric!

  6. The Clash

    “Inland locations such as Katy will probably see mostly sunny days, with higher temperatures and slight, if any rain accumulations.”

    I’m confused…should I stay or should I go?

      1. Fred

        I’d be careful insulting other people when you don’t even seem to realize that the posters of the articles on this site regularly troll Katy, but do it very subtly.

        1. Move On please

          I have followed Eric since his Chron days back with Rita and Ike. I know about the trolling and to be honest it is absolutely old and stupid. Stupid Katy comments should be screened before they even make the thread. Deters from the seriousness of the news that this fine website gives. I am done with careful!

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