The Easter bunny may bring storms later this afternoon, and especially overnight into Houston

In brief: Happy Easter to all who celebrate. Wanted to jump in with a quick holiday post so people are not surprised if thunderstorms pop up today, and by the possibility of some stronger storms this evening and during the overnight hours.

The remnants from a line of storms over Central Texas are currently approaching the Houston region this morning, and this will produce some showers and thunderstorms generally west of the city this morning, including in the Katy region. More isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the late morning and early afternoon hours across Houston, but there’s probably at least a 50 percent chance you don’t see rain until later today or this evening.

However, by this afternoon a weak front will sag into the region, stalling over the city of Houston. This will serve as a focus for the development of thunderstorms this evening, and during the overnight hours. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe, with the potential for damaging winds. Right now the dynamics are most favorable for thunderstorms north of Interstate 10, but I would not rule out thunderstorms anywhere in the metro area tonight and through at least Monday morning. On the Excitable Dogs Scale from 1 to 10, let’s call this a 7.5.

Rainfall amounts are going to be highly variable, but accumulations from this afternoon through midday on Monday could range from 1 to 3 inches for most locations, with the risk of higher totals. I would not rule out a few bullseyes of 5 inches or more somewhere in the metro area. This has the potential to cause some street flooding by the Monday morning commute. I’m going to hold off on issuing a Stage 1 flood alert, but this is something we’ll be watching today and update if warranted.