The song remains the same with regard to our hot forecast, so let’s discuss the four phases of summer

In my own mind I like to break summer in Houston into four phases. We can do this in Houston because “summer” season lasts so long, typically about five months. This is contrast to meteorological summer, which runs from June through August, and “solstice” summer, which runs from June 21 through September 22 this year. For me, Houston’s summer typically runs from about mid-May through mid-October. Here are the four phases:

  • Early summer: When we first start to see 90-degree temperatures with regularity, but some nights in the 60s are still possible, and there’s still the thinnest hope of a weak front
  • Mid summer: When highs run from 90 to 95 degrees, and nights are sultry, but you know it could still get worse
  • High summer: Somewhere between late July and early September there’s a period where temperatures reach the upper 90s to low 100s and you realize, “Ok, this really is the worst.”
  • Late summer: This is the period in September and early October when days grow shorter and we usually see the first front or two of the season. But most of the time it’s still hot.

This year, of course, Early Summer came about two weeks early. Here’s hoping Late Summer ends about two weeks early. But that’s not usually how things work, I’m afraid.

Tuesday

Today will be hot and sunny, with high temperatures around 90 degrees, or a touch warmer for inland areas. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s, only.

This is the most hopeful map I can share this week. It’s the low temperature forecast for Friday morning. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday and Thursday

These days will also be hot, with daytime temperatures in the low 90s. But as high pressure shifts a little bit overhead, it will essentially weaken our southerly flow. This will diminish winds and very slightly turn down the spigot of humidity. So overnight temperatures may drop into the upper 60s for inland areas on Wednesday and Thursday nights, with slightly less daytime humidity. It isn’t much, but it’s something.

Friday

Look for highs in the low 90s with mostly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re still looking at very modest rain chances this weekend, primarily on Saturday and Saturday night. However I’d say the chance for most of Houston is probably about 20 percent, with areas east of Interstate 45 probably reaching 30 percent. Any accumulations look slight. Otherwise look for mostly sunny and hot days, with highs in the mid-90s.

And here’s a less hopeful map, the high temperature forecast for Sunday. (Weather Bell)

Next week’s big question

Is a pattern change coming to bring an end to this Early Summer heat wave next week?

Next week’s big answer

No.

14 thoughts on “The song remains the same with regard to our hot forecast, so let’s discuss the four phases of summer”

  1. I’m unreasonably mad after reading the last two sections. Or maybe it’s reasonably mad. 😀

    • I actually whimpered when reading the “Next week’s big answer” section at the end.

      It is too hot to be outside, too widespread to do a road trip, and too late for plotting an escape to cooler climes now. Yuck.

  2. 4 phases: hot, hotter, hottest, and just when you thought it couldn’t get any hotter.

  3. The four phases of Houston summer, which runs from May through April:

    Stinkin’ hot
    Too stinkin’ hot
    Way too stinkin’ hot (also known as “Ughust”)
    Not as stinkin’ hot, but still stinkin’ hot

  4. Just to be perfectly clear, Houston DOES have 4 seasons!!
    Hot
    Hotter
    Blow Torch!
    Monsoon

  5. I have the feeling that this summer is going to be one for the records, or at least that’s how it feels already.
    I personally consider Halloween as the beginning of the bearable season and November through February as the “this is to perfect to be real” season in town.

  6. When do yall expect this pattern of big wind to end? Im assuming its due to the cool water temperatures in the gulf still and the really hot days and the land heating so quickly

  7. I’ve noticed that a “season” in Houston often comes crashing in—one spring day, it is suddenly highs in the mid 90s. Or, late in the year, the weather suddenly goes from warm and sunny, to blustery, rainy, clouds, and cold.

  8. Forecast until midOctober or so:

    Hot and humid, then hotter and more humid. Chance of widely scattered, locally severe thunderstorms. Cannot rule out the possibility of a hurricane or two.

    That should cover it for the next several months.

  9. My 4 layers of summer are from a gardener’s perspective. Part 1 hot, but there’s still a breeze and cooler mornings. Part 2 hot and now the humidity stays all day to add to the torture. Part 3 VERY Hot, VERY humid and the breeze disappears. Part 4 Very hot, Very humid, no breeze, and the mosquitoes arrive daily. Bonus, All this and it floods so there’s mud as well. At this point, you start counting the days until late September’s first cool front. You also decide that a Hurricane should not arrive during these already tortuous conditions.

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