Today remains hot for Houston, but change is beginning

Good morning. Just a quick note before today’s post—I wanted to say thank you to the 250 or so people who came out to the Houston Museum of Natural Science on Tuesday evening to hear Matt and I talk about the site, weather, hurricanes, and more. It was wonderful to meet so many of you, especially the two lovely young women who read this site to their mom every morning for practice—I’ve forgotten your names, and I’m truly sorry—but I promise to keep everything PG!

Wednesday

Change is coming slowly to Houston, but we’re still going to see another very hot day. The city has now recorded six consecutive days of 101-degree temperatures, and I don’t quite think we’ll get there today. But a heat advisory remains in effect, and we’ll at least get into the upper-90s if not 100 degrees.

Texas highs should generally be 2 to 5 degrees cooler than they were Tuesday. (Pivotal Weather)

Nevertheless, change is on the way, with high pressure finally beginning to back off to the west. This should allow for a fairly healthy—40 or 50 percent?—chance of showers late this afternoon and evening as the sea breeze migrates inland and collides with a disturbed atmosphere moving south. For the most part accumulations will be measured in the tenths of an inch, but a few heavy thunderstorms may drop more. Lows tonight will still be in the 80s.

Thursday

A more disturbed atmosphere in the wake of Wednesday’s shower activity should produce another healthy chance of rain on Thursday, around 40 percent. Partly cloudy skies should also help “moderate” temperatures into the mid-90s, although areas that see a lot of sunshine during the afternoon hours may get into the upper-90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We’re going to remain under a somewhat unsettled atmosphere for most of the weekend and, when combined with moist air moving in from the Gulf of Mexico, each day is going to see a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers. This shouldn’t be a washout by any stretch of the imagination, as skies should be mostly sunny, most of the time, with highs in the mid-90s. However, if you’re planning outdoor activities you will probably want to have a contingency plan to duck inside briefly.

Yes, some rain really is coming. Most GFS ensemble members see Hobby Airport picking up 0.5 inches through next Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

Next week

We’ll still be warm, but the ensemble forecasts are split as to whether we’re going to be upper-90 degrees warm, or lower-90-degrees warm. It does not appear as though we’re going to bake under high pressure, with no chance of rain, however.

17 thoughts on “Today remains hot for Houston, but change is beginning

  1. kztoy

    Yes, cooler weather is coming and the scent of football is in the air.
    Still not anything coming off Africa and the GoM is quiet. We’re looking good!

  2. NatHou

    Informative and useful presentation last night, gentlemen. The Q&A afterwards was good too. (except for the old dude’s belligerent climate denier question, geez, rolls eyes) Plus, I learned that lots of folks are really interested in weather models! Fun evening, thank you both.

    1. Michael Swaim

      Everyone can take their climate debates elsewhere. This site is about weather and I would appreciate it if the commentators would leave it at that.

      1. Jack P.

        This is a weather blog. It is, literally, the place to consider information around climate and to become educated in this dialogue as a whole.

    2. Gracie garcia

      Now that el Niño is not with us, now we have to worry what kind of weather will have. As the years go, the weather will get hotter and hotter. As the water gets warmer, we will have more hurricanes. And alot of rain. Now we’re in this hot weather. So it’s best we stay in doors to survive. Gracie garcia

  3. Tonya F.

    Very cool, wish I’d have known about your speaking engagement, would have liked to go. Thanks for the great weather insights and advisories. I found y’all just before that jerk Harvey hit. Have been loyal supporter since. Please keep up the great work!

  4. Cindy Boek Duffy

    You guys are the best! My 82 year old mother always worries about the weather. She lives in Houston. We live 100 miles away on the coast. I send her your weather report to ease her mind. Thank you for such honest and trustworthy weather reporting.

  5. Monty

    Thanks guys as always. Another mixed bag of model guidance. What a shocker. As far as you go Mr Rain…bring it…we need it.

  6. Jack P.

    Sorry I missed your chat. This sight is an incredible resource. I just wish I had a good New England version when I travel back to Maine.

    I most curious about when the tropics will fire up. Should be an interesting ride this season.

  7. Arianda

    I too am nervous that it’s been relatively calm in regards to the tropics, but yet, NOAA updated the prediction to above normal……….with only a few months left……..that tells me we are going to have a rough time the rest of this season. Especially when they did an interview a few months back stating that we WILL be hit with another hurricane soon. Yes, they actually said that…….how they would know so far out is beyond me………..

  8. Robin Holzer

    We loved your talk at HMNS last night, and are delighted by your kind shout-out. Cate said, “That was really interesting!” Samantha says, “Harvey is rated X!” Thanks for being so generous with your time. We all appreciate your service to our region!

  9. tanstaafl

    We didn’t reach 101 today Eric. We only reached 102! I’m waiting on some rain to cool things down.

Leave a Reply