Tuesday, 2:05pm CT— Good afternoon. Another dreary day across much of the region as Harvey (finally!) begins to slowly pick up some speed and pull away. Thankfully the Houston area has seen minimal additional rains today, with most places across the hardest hit spots earlier in the week at or below one inch of new rain. Today’s hardest hit location is clearly Galveston.
Now and Tonight
Harvey is a shell of what it once was, but it’s trying to take up a new lease on life as it leaves our area.
Harvey has been hammering Galveston all morning with heavy rain over 7″ total today, along with strong winds. Gusts over 50 mph have occurred at times on the island. This will continue as Harvey pulls away, but with a slight downward trend eventually.
Rains have really cut back around Houston, which is great news for us. Our neighbors to the east are unfortunately now in a serious predicament with extremely heavy rain pointed at the Beaumont and Port Arthur area. These areas have been similarly battered by rainfall since the weekend. Heavy rains will lash that area through this evening, worsening a bad situation. Some additional rains may redevelop tonight over Houston, but around the city, rain totals today will be the lowest they’ve been since at least Saturday.
Tomorrow and Beyond
Harvey is on its way, and it will make landfall late tonight or tomorrow morning likely in Cameron Parish, LA or near Port Arthur. We should see rain risk trend downward tomorrow with just a few showers, mostly in the morning and amounts should be mainly inconsequential as it relates to flooding. Skies may not clear out completely, but many of you will see sunshine tomorrow I project. We will stay dry into the weekend before at least some rain chances (hopefully mostly scattered stuff and nothing too organized) returns to the picture after Labor Day. We’ll have more on that once we dust ourselves off after Harvey’s exit.
Posted at 2:05 PM Tuesday by Matt
Thank you! Could you please comment on the increasing chatter around the potential storm in the gulf that may be heading towards houston? It would be good to know if we should take it seriously, at all, in terms of procuring more essentials, such as baby formula.
NHC doesn’t have any Gulf disturbances listed on their 5-day outlook right now:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
I believe she is referring to this:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017082912&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=182
You can see something developing at 168 and hitting land at 192
Yes, 5-7 days out per a work conference call on Harvey with a private weather service. Not confirmed, but certainly a possibility for development.
Great job Matt!
Are you talking about the one that he addresses in this post?
https://spacecityweather.com/harvey-update-rain-forecast-river-update-and-another-hurricane-rumors/
Formula is shelf stable for quite some time. For anyone needing this, they should always have plenty on hand this time of year. This, among other essentials, should be stocked/restocked in preparations for the next storm.
I’m down here in Bolivar still on the boat and have been seeing 45 steady gusting to 65 now with torrential rainfall. If y’all shoot me an email with contact info I’ll be glad to call and tell you guys all about it.
Cholley12 at gmail.com
Hallelujah!! Thanks Matt and Eric. Please keep us updated on the Adicks and Barker Reservoir.
You guys have been the best weather reporters throughout this entire ordeal. When I wanted straight talk with a bit of wit I just went to SCW. Some of my friends are now devotees. Thanks for everything you did to hold us together.
Matt & Eric, thank you both for your tireless efforts updating us all. You are the ones we rely upon for honest weather. One thing I’ve been seeing on the weather broadcasts is caution that the flooding may not be over because of all the upstream rain that is coming downriver to drain. What are your thoughts on our risk and potential there – if we’ve started to dry out and waters recede, are we at risk of having flooding again in a few days as these rainwaters make their way downstream (for example, I live on the south side in Pearland and drain to Clear Creek – I’m not sure what upstream feeds into Clear Creek).
Thank you so much for all of the data you’ve provided during this crisis. As someone who was coincidentally out of town when all of this has been happening, you’ve been providing by far the best information I’ve seen about what and where the storm may be doing and going.
Do you by chance have any suggestion about when the freeways might dry up sufficiently that return to the area for those of us who had evacuated might be feasible, now that the precipitation is slowing?
There are a lot of old, large trees in our neighborhood near the Med Center. We are a little concerned about toppling with all of the saturation. What are wind speeds/gusts likely to be here in central Houston in the next 12-24 hours?
Thank you for your objective forecasting and lack of sensationalism.
I know it’s been said a million times but thanks for your reporting! I’ve been monitoring both of y’all’s posts extremely closely as I’m watching the situation from afar (I don’t live in Houston anymore but my parents do), and your levelheadedness and objectivity have definitely provided some mental respite in a sea of sensationalism.
you guys should be commended for your commitment and dedication throughout this entire storm. I hope you’ll let us (your faithful followers) know what we can do to express our appreciation when things settle down. Or, if others have ideas, please share them!
Thank You for updating on Beaumont from a loyal Beaumont follower and utility worker. We are getting in really bad right now and as you said an already bad situation for us. Glad Houston is seeing light at the end of the tunnel.
Eric and Matt:
As this system finally heads on out of here I just want to tell you that your forecasting, no hype just the facts have been about as spot on as anyone could be and laid it out to where even a caveman could understand (not to offend any cavemen out there). You were the first ones I heard discuss a major event having real possibilities of occurring here and it was really amazing and devastating to see what you predicted unfold right before us.
I sent your posts early on before the storm hit to people and told them if they wanted to know what to expect to follow your site. They were suspect at first and not a believer in what the possibilities were. You are now are as a reliable and a resource out there.
I know that weather forecasters do not always bat 1.000 percent. However as I read you since I found you on the Chronicle you have been as good as they get. Your sponsors probably got a good bang for their buck the last week but I appreciate them sponsoring such an important asset for Houstonians . Thanks again and I hope the site does not go away any time soon. Just wanted to let you know how much it is appreciated. Just one more of the many thank yous I have seen posted here.
DITTO on all the praise. As one of the radio announcers has warned, most of TV and news media in general are “selling fear”. Clear eyed, no punches pulled but no “alarmism” is what we needed and you provided, in spades.
What about Lake Houston? I live in summerwood and the water is not draining from our neighborhood because the lake level is so high. What can we expect?
Can you comment on the west gulf low forecast on the last few GFS and Euro runs in about a week?