Warmer weather returning, but the odds of Houston’s first true fall front increase for next week

We continue to enjoy fairly quiet weather across the region in the wake of Hurricane Nicholas. Today will be no exception, though things get a bit more unsettled this weekend. But the drumbeat regarding our first legitimate autumn cold front is growing louder today. For now at least, it would seem that some very nice weather is on the horizon for the back half of next week. More on that below.


Friday will probably be similar to Thursday in a lot of ways with clouds and sunshine sharing the sky. Yesterday saw upper-70s at Bush Airport compared to mid-80s at Hobby. Today should probably see 90 or better in a lot of locations, provided the sun is out a good bit. Otherwise, look for mid to upper-80s, still warmer than Thursday.

A warm but fairly pleasant Friday should be in store for most of the area, with little rain chance. (NOAA)

Rain chances are quite slim to none today.

Saturday & Sunday

We sort of settle back into more of a typical late summer pattern this weekend, as Eric’s been noting the last couple days. The coverage of showers and storms expected has wobbled a bit lately, but it looks like we’ll have decent coverage of showers tomorrow and maybe a bit less coverage on Sunday. We’ll have a good bit of humidity and highs in the upper-80s to low-90s depending on cloud cover. Morning lows should be in the 70s.

Early next week

Monday looks pretty good right now with just a chance of a shower or storm but otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Look for morning 70s and afternoon 90s. Tuesday looks similar, though with perhaps a slight nudge up in rain chances.

Cold front update!

On to what should be the good news. Both the GFS & European models are in agreement on a cold front coming into the area on Wednesday. They differ on exact timing and how strong it will be, but they both show it distinctly in their forecasts and ensembles for the most part. Here are the low temperature charts from the 51 Euro ensemble members and the 31 GFS ensemble members. I’ve boxed in the period for next week.

Both the Euro (left) and GFS (right) have good agreement among the majority of their ensemble members for a cold front through Houston next week, though they differ on exact timing and amplitude. Click to enlarge. (Weather Bell)

The Euro is at nearly 100 percent agreement on a pretty potent cold front reaching the area, closer to Wednesday morning. The GFS, however looks to be at more like 50 to 55 percent agreement, with most ensemble members not quite as cool as the Euro. But, when you look closer at the GFS, it does bring a strong front south; it just manages to whiff to our east, bringing most cool air into Louisiana, rather than Texas. That same chart above and to the right shows more like 90 percent agreement in a front when you look at it for Lake Charles, which seems a bit odd to me.

I would say there’s a bit of uncertainty right now on the finer details, like whether it’s 60 to 65 or 65 to 70 in the mornings late next week (though I will say that it’s quite tantalizing to see several European ensemble members in the 50s). In terms of getting the front through Houston, that’s looking like an increasingly likely proposition. Assuming that’s the case, expect a period of showers or thunderstorms Tuesday night or Wednesday, followed by mostly sunny conditions for the end of the week. Highs would be in the 80s with low humidity. And again, we’ll see about how cool morning lows go.


The Atlantic remains active with two areas still holding at a 70 percent chance of development over the next 5 days. Both are expected to head out to sea.

While the tropics remain busy, as is typical for September, none is a realistic threat to the Gulf. (NOAA)

Some folks will continue to point to Invest 95L (the red area in the central Atlantic) as being concerning, but in order for it to come more west, it would have to remain a disheveled mess and would likely get ripped apart before it got far enough west to be concerning. Oh, and with a cold front likely to get well offshore next week, the western Gulf is protected through at least next weekend. In other words, you can rest easy. No concerns for us.

Have a great weekend!

13 thoughts on “Warmer weather returning, but the odds of Houston’s first true fall front increase for next week”

  1. This is a nice forecast to wake up to. Although the Hurricane season has been tame this year compared to others, the heat has been miserable. Really enjoy that fall time. Time to reflect, relax, and hang out with family and friends.

  2. I really want to thank you for what you do. I depend on you for sane less anxiety producing information. You are truly needed around here.

  3. What a great updated forecast – I know you bring us the message and don’t create the actual weather but still “thank you”.

    I usually only make chili when it is “chilly” [see what I did there?] but I may make a pot next week as a celebration.

  4. Sorry, this is Texas. Not buying the cold front here just yet. I’ll check back in Tuesday and see what you all are saying then.

  5. Never excited about cold weather. Funny that more people are out and about in 95 degrees vs. 50 degrees. The season of gloom and cold is not a good time of year, and hopefully after the February freeze this year, the people of Houston will learn that winter is not fun. However, if the forecast for next week is highs in the 80s and lows around 60, that is quite pleasant weather. With luck there is always a period in late winter/early spring, and late summer/early autumn which doesn’t need heat or AC, allowing utility bills to be very low.

    • Meh, speak for yourself—winter is still my favorite time of year, and all things considered, I’ve had waaaaaaaaaay more and more lengthy power outages in summer from summer weather and storms than winter. I live for those days where it’s 40F and overcast.

      Winter is absolutely fun. Bring it!

  6. Did it ever officially hit 100 in Houston this summer? Or are we likely to go an entire calendar year without breaking 100?
    As miserable as it might have seemed to some, this summer has actually seemed cooler than most.

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