We’re seeing another morning of freezing, or near-freezing temperatures this morning across Houston, but the region will now emerge from the ice box to enjoy several really pleasant fall-like days. Unfortunately, by Sunday or so, our forecast for the coming holiday week turns a bit murky. We definitely have some concerns for the busiest travel days of the year.
Thursday and Friday
With high pressure in place overhead, we’ll see sunny skies, with high temperatures on Thursday near 60 degrees, and in the mid- to upper-60s on Friday night. Overnight lows will be comfortably above freezing, but still in the 40s for most of the region except for the coast.
Saturday
A very nice weekend day, with high temperatures generally in the low 70s for Houston, under partly to mostly sunny skies. After several days of northerly winds, a southerly flow will resume, bringing moisture back into the atmosphere, and setting the table for better rain chances as early as Sunday. Your dry skin, at the very least, will be happy.
Sunday
With the onshore flow in place, and a weak front approaching Houston from the northwest, there will be the potential for some light rain showers Sunday. Skies will likely become increasingly cloudy during the day, with about a 30 percent chance of showers across the Houston area. For the most part this should be very light rain. Highs will be around 70 degrees. We’ll get to see how many mosquitoes survived the November freeze.
Next week
The forecast for next week is a mess, with no clear signals for our weather but lots of ingredients in play. The aforementioned cold front moving through the area won’t clear out the region like the front earlier this week, so we’ll see healthy rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. As we get to the Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday period there will be a series of upper-level disturbances moving in from the west. At the same time, low-pressure will be moving northward, along the Texas coast, bringing moist, rising air into the region.
Add it all up and what do you have? We’re not sure yet, but there’s the potential for unsettled weather. Right now it’s hard to say whether the better rain accumulations (i.e. 1-3 inches) will come during the first part of the week, or on Thanksgiving, or on Black Friday. I wish we had more clarity, but we just don’t. Temperatures are likely to be in the upper-60s or low-70s for turkey day.
Well every time my in-laws are in town it rains. My forecast is for rain from Tues-Sun!
I don’t understand. Why is there so much uncertainty? All signs point to rain, so is the uncertainty only about how much? Are we talking flooding rains and no one wants us to panic? So, if, according to NOAA, it’s supposed to be higher than normal rains for this time of year, what is normal?
I believe the uncertainty is in the timing, not the big picture. I have seen no mention of flooding rains.
This potentially rainy forecast, possibly accompanied with thunderstorms is why I avoid if at all possible flying over holidays. Get your flight cancelled or miss a connection due to the weather, and good luck finding a seat on the packed to the gills aircraft. Best day to fly is on the day of the holiday itself.
One of the easiest travel days I ever had was flying back home on Christmas Day.