Waves of severe weather possible today and Wednesday, including tornadoes, in the Houston region

In brief: Today’s post discusses our storm expectations for the next two days, with at least three distinct waves of severe weather possible for various parts of the Houston metro area. The bottom line is that it is important to remain weather aware through Wednesday.

Stormy pattern

A sharp disturbance in the upper atmosphere will provide lift needed to support unsettled weather from today through Wednesday across the Houston region. Areas along and north of Interstate 10 will be most favored for severe storms today, but we cannot rule out strong thunderstorms anywhere in the region. Among the risks we are tracking:

• Heavy rainfall with high rates. Most of the greater Houston area is likely to receive 1 to 2 inches of rain, but there will be greater totals in some locations, and rain will be falling quickly enough to back up streets. For this reason we have put a Stage 1 flood alert in place through Wednesday evening.
• Tornadoes. The atmosphere, with plenty of instability as well as available energy (CAPE), will be capable of forming tornadoes. If they form, they could become fairly powerful tornadoes given the atmospheric conditions.
• Large hail. With previous storms we have already seen quarter-sized hail of late, and the atmosphere will be capable of supporting more large hail over the next two days.
• Damaging winds. Within stronger thunderstorms there will be the potential for damaging, straight-line winds. If possible, batten down loose outdoor items that don’t have much heft.

Timing of storms

Your best weapon for timing storms over the next two days will be a good radar app (RadarScope is one we like) to determine conditions nearby your location. However, generally, we expect a fairly calm morning. After that we should see at least three waves of storms:

Round one: By late Tuesday morning a line of storms, very likely with severe storms embedded, will be nearing the College Station area. This line should move into Montgomery County and points north by around noon, affecting the I-45 corridor (I’m concerned about areas including The Woodlands, Conroe, and Huntsville). At this time, we think most of these storms will be along and north of Interstate 10, but again we cannot rule out impacts further south, and closer to the coast.

Round two: Conditions may then calm down for a few hours this afternoon and early evening. However by around sunset I expect another line of storms to approach the Houston region from the northwest. I expect these to advance into the Houston metro area between 8 pm and midnight, but they may peter out before reaching the coast.

Round three: If you live near the coast you may be wondering, are we not going to see anything from all of this mess? Well, it’s possible that areas south of Interstate 10 will not see much action on Tuesday. However, most of our guidance shows another round of storms developing to the southwest of the region and advancing into the city. It appears as though these storms will reach the southern portion of the Houston metro area early on Wednesday morning, spreading into much of the metro area. Again, these storms also have the potential to produce severe weather and could make for a messy commute on Wednesday morning.

After this we may see additional rounds of development later on Wednesday, but nothing quite as severe. We shall see.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Temperatures on both days should be in the low- to mid-80s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Even when there aren’t storms, on Tuesday in particular, there will be a fairly pronounced southerly wind with gusts up to 25 mph or so. Nights will be warm.

Thursday and Friday

Although likely not severe, the rains may linger into Thursday as a weak front pushes into the area. Expect partly sunny skies on Thursday, with highs in the mid-80s, and mostly sunny skies on Friday with a high of around 80 degrees. With slightly drier air, we should see nighttime temperatures drop into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

We should have another exceptional weekend. Although I don’t expect the air to be as dry as last weekend, it still should be reasonably pleasant with highs around 80 degrees, or just a bit above that, and lows in the vicinity of 60 degrees in Houston, with a smattering of 50s possible for far inland areas. Sunshine will be abundant, with rain chances near nil.

Next week

Most of next week looks mostly sunny and hotter, with highs possibly reaching 90 degrees by mid-week. It might start to feel a bit like summer around these parts, so enjoy the weekend.

Next update

We will post again on this site no later than shortly after noon.