We are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for coastal counties, and watching the situation closely

Good morning. A tropical low pressure system is nearing the South Texas coast this morning, and should begin to move inland today. As a result, beginning tonight and on Friday, much of the Houston metro area is likely to see moderate to heavy rainfall. But the biggest threat should come in our coastal counties: Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Orange. Therefore, for these areas we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert on our Flood Scale.

Broadly speaking, we expect 4 to 6 inches of rain for coastal areas, which is a lot for two days, but since these areas have been so dry the totals should be manageable. However, some model data indicates the potential for coastal areas to see larger bullseyes of rain with this tropical air mass, and we are monitoring this closely. Suffice it to say that we may need to increase the flood alert later today to Stage 2, but do not feel confident in doing so now. (These bullseyes could also very well miss offshore). We plan to update you later today as we know more.

Approximate area of Stage 1 Flood Alert. (Google Maps/Space City Weather)

The remainder of the metro area should see more moderate totals of rainfall over the next two days, generally 1 to 4 inches, with amounts decreasing the further inland you go. We do not expect to need to issue any flood alerts for these areas, but again we are watching closely.

Thursday

We have seen some coastal showers develop prior to sunrise and push inland, but this activity will probably wane later this morning. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but none of these are likely to be too organized. Therefore we think today should be business-as-normal for most people, and most activities. Look for highs in the upper 80s with mostly cloudy skies. The threat of heavy rain from the tropical system probably will not arrive until at least midnight along the coast, and a bit later than than that for inland areas.

Friday

Right now we think Friday will yield the most hazardous weather in terms of heavy rainfall. The key question, as we’ve been saying for a couple of days, is where the tropical low ultimately moves and brings its excessive moisture. We could find ourselves in a situation where the heaviest rain remains largely offshore, or we could find ourselves in a situation where Galveston Island receives 10 inches. What we can say for certain is that there is the potential for very heavy rainfall on Friday for coastal counties, with lesser chances as one moves into Harris County, and lesser chances still further inland. The potential for heavy rainfall should exit coastal areas on Friday afternoon or evening, and move north as the system is also moving to the north or northwest.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Saturday morning. (Weather Bell).

Saturday

The potential for widespread, moderate to heavy rainfall will linger on Friday night into Saturday morning as the tropical low starts to move away from the area, but we should start to see skies clearing out during the afternoon hours, allowing highs to reach about 90 degrees.

Sunday and Monday

The remainder of the weekend should see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. There is a slight chance of rain both days, but I would only put it at 10 to 15 percent. Therefore, there should be no weather concerns for the Fourth of July holiday.

Next week

Houston’s weather will fall back into a hot and sunny pattern for most of the rest of next week, with highs probably in the mid-90s, or thereabouts. It will be a little warm for early July, but not excessively so.

We will post an update on the potential for flooding on Thursday afternoon or evening.

27 thoughts on “We are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for coastal counties, and watching the situation closely”

    • I remember reading that they had a fix for iOS. Reinstall the app and I think you’ll be good to go!

  1. Please, please, please…let it rain here! Nothing for over 5 weeks and trees, grass, etc are dying. Smells like fields of men hay drying now and I live in a forest.

  2. I’m supposed to drive from Houston through Beaumont tomorrow morning. Is that a bad idea?

  3. Some impressive thunderboomer clouds this morning, those and the breeze off the Gulf gave the morning quite a “tropical” feel if you catch my drift.

    Still, no rain at the house.

    • From my interpretation that’s an isolated hotspot maximum for the island under the worst conditions, we’re definitely not likely to see that everywhere. 4-6″ on the island I believe is the current estimate over 2 days.

      • Absolutely correct. My personal reminder is, wipers on, lights on. Texas law says when visibility is less than 1000′ the headlights are required to be on.

  4. We’re supposed to fly out of Hobby Friday evening at 5:30. Any thoughts on whether it makes sense to try to move to an earlier flight? Or general thoughts on the travel outlook tomorrow? Thanks!

  5. Herbert Saffir/Robert Simpson developed the hurricane scale. Ted Fujita the tornado. One day, the whole world will know the Berger Lanza flood scale.

  6. This is looking like not much for the Houston metro area as we seem to be on the west side of the circulation. Sadly I think we will watch our neighbors to the east get all the rain while we get almost none.

  7. Raining steady for last few hours in San Leon. Ground soaking it up too. Hope you all up north and west of Galveston County can get some of this.

  8. I believe I speak for all of us, but to be honest, your forecasts for this system have been absolutely terrible. First you say that the “majority of Houston should expect widespread heavy rainfall”, and now it turns out we won’t get even a drop from this system. My pine trees in my backyard are dying and for once I thought that there might be a light at the end of the tunnel. I don’t think y’all understand how hard it is to tell farmers and ranchers that their one chance at rain is gone. Next time, PLEASE don’t make such bold claims like that until you have at least some degree of confidence that your forecasts are correct because I am angry at your terrible forecasting and so are a lot of other Houstonians, especially those who rely on rain the most.

    • Uh, I believe you speak for none of us except yourself. PLEASE don’t make such bold claims like that until you have done degree of confidence that you’re not being a presumptive ass.

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