We think the Texas hurricane season is probably over

It’s a strange time a year. The historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season came fewer than two weeks ago. Moreover, a little more than a week ago, Hurricane Nicholas struck the Texas coast and knocked out power for hundreds of thousands in the region. And today, Space City Weather is saying hurricane season is probably over for Texas? Really? Why yes. Yes we are.

There are a couple of reasons for this. Historically, the odds of a hurricane striking the state of Texas are about 1-in-50 after September 24. Our confidence is increased this year because, looking ahead at the next 10 days, the western Gulf of Mexico looks pretty quiet, especially north of the Bay of Campeche. This is the time of year when the jet streak starts a seasonal swing southward, and our region becomes more prone to cold fronts, which push any tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico to the east. We’ve already seen one weak front about 12 days ago, a stronger one yesterday, and there’s perhaps another front coming early in October.

All of this means that we’re pretty confident that Texas is not going to get hit by another hurricane this year, even though the “Atlantic season” runs through November 30. We may very well still see tropical mischief, in the form of a depression or moisture that sparks some heavy rainfall. But the blowy, storm-surge stuff—we’re probably done with worrying about that for 2021. As always, we’ll keep an eye on the tropics. But you don’t have to if you don’t want to.

Your sunrise temperatures on Thursday morning. (Weather Bell)


There’s not a whole lot to say about our weather other than it’s gorgeous. Lows this morning range from the 50s inland to about 70 right along the coast. Today will bring more dry air, with light easterly winds, sunny skies, and highs in the mid-80s. Lows tonight will drop into the low 60s.

Friday and Saturday

Expect more of the same. Highs in the 80s. Sunny skies. Mostly dry air.


The second half of the weekend should see continued sunny skies, but dewpoints are going start climbing, and so while temperatures remain in the 80s it will start to feel a touch more humid. Lows Sunday night will be notably warmer, likely only dropping to around 70 in Houston.

Skies will be mostly sunny this week, before turning mostly cloudy next week. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Much of next week will be something of a return to summer-lite weather, with highs near 90 degrees, lows in the low 70s, and lots of clouds. As the influence of high pressure lessens, we’ll open back up to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and rain chances will increase to perhaps 50 or 60 percent each day. As a rough guess I’d say much of the metro area sees 1 to 3 inches of rain total, or thereabouts. But it’s still too early for any precision. The models are starting to hint at a front in the Friday or Saturday range of next week, but there are certainly no guarantees.

14 thoughts on “We think the Texas hurricane season is probably over”

  1. Great news on the hurricane front. I assume you meant “jet stream” not “streak”. Sorry, the old editor in me!

    • Jet Streak is a Meteorological term . “A “jet streak” refers to a portion of the overall jet stream where winds along the jet core flow are stronger than in other areas along the jet stream. The entrance (exit) region of a jet streak is where winds are accelerating into the back/upstream (decelerating out of the front/downstream) side of the streak.”

  2. Hallelujah! Hurricane season likely over and beautiful weather for a bit. Thank you for getting us through a hurricane season truly without a lot of hype, a bit of humor thrown around here and there and the facts, just the facts. Y’all are IT for me when it comes to weather. Appreciate you!

  3. I’m drinking my coffee and enjoying this beautiful morning on my porch on the bay! Just read your post and it was uplifting to hear the hurricane season may be over for Texas. Sure hope you’re right! Thanks for your accurate reporting!

  4. Another great morning to take a walk – chillier than yesterday but not complaining at all since it was bracing and a good offset to my heat buildup by the end.

    My only regret: not having taken today off so I could wander the streets to bask up the sunny cool weather. But, there’s always lunch and after work. Love that the unofficial end to hurricane season is declared, too.

  5. it looks like Sam is beginning to rapidly intensify. It already almost appears to have an eye, and it was a depression this morning!

  6. Eric now is a good time to remind people to support SCW through donations. Don’t be shy asking while we are giddy with relief Hurricane season appears to be over for Htown !

Comments are closed.