In brief: Following a period of idyllic weather in Houston, our atmospheric pattern turns more unsettled tonight and especially on Sunday. Coastal areas, in particular, could see heavy rains and thunderstorms.
Pattern change ahead
After a few days of gorgeous, clear weather an upper-level system will move into the region later tonight. This will set the stage for a rainy, and potentially stormy Sunday. The most impactful weather will occur during the daytime on Sunday, from sunrise to sunset, but Houston may see some slight showers beforehand.
Saturday and Saturday night
Houston will see partly to mostly sunny conditions today, with highs likely pushing into the upper 60s. Some light showers will be possible later this afternoon, or evening in Houston, but I don’t believe these will be too impactful. Coastal areas, particularly to the south of Houston near Matagorda Bay, may see some thunderstorms, however. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s.
Sunday and Sunday night
The atmosphere will turn more conducive to rainfall, and storms, on Sunday as moisture levels increase and a series of disturbances move through. For most of Houston this will be manageable, with rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. There will also be the potential some thunderstorms in the city. Overall, this is not the best setup for severe weather over Houston, but closer to the coast and some warmer air I have some concerns.
These conditions should support the potential for greater rainfall totals over coastal counties such as Brazoria and Galveston, where 2 to 4 inches of rain may be possible with some higher bullseyes. As noted above, the atmospheric background for severe weather (most likely strong thunderstorms) will also be higher in these areas.
The threat of inclement weather should end by Sunday evening, or so, as a colder air mass begins moving into the region but a few light showers could persist overnight. High temperatures on Monday should top out in the 50s, if you can believe it, before we begin to warm up next week.
Matt and I will be watching things closely in case we need to issue a flood stage warning for Sunday in the Houston region. If we were to do so, it probably would be for coastal areas, out of an abundance of caution. If we decide the pull the trigger, we will update the site this evening.
Fundraiser
We continue to raise funds to support Space City Weather through donations and merchandise sales. If you can help out, please click here. Thank you to all who have given so far.
